HikeHunt61
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Ya. Maybe even offer, one time, to allow PP to BP conversion. Then those with 15-20 points, who almost certainly don’t have a chance in PP, can make that call.
SF060 Dead for now… Task force a failure or success?
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Well I hate to say it Buzz and other bonus pt system skeptics but for the most part bonus pts do work extremely well...even for extremely limited, high demand tags. I thought I would illustrate this using a couple Nevada desert sheep units as examples. Desert sheep tags are among the highest demand tags available in the US.
Here are 2 prime examples of how NV's bonus pt system works as intended. It's simple to add up all nonres applicants at different bonus pt levels. In my example I segmented the draw applicants into 3 different categories (0 to 10 bonus pts, 11 to 20, and 21 to 29) using the 2022 draw.
Notice in unit 181 NV desert sheep that only 1 in 135 applicants with 0 to 10 bonus pts drew tags, 1 in 23 applicants with 11 to 20 bonus pts drew, and 1 in 9 applicants with 21 to 29 bonus pts drew a tag. The same thing is extremely consistent and true if you look at NV elk, deer, and antelope units.
The nice thing about bonus pt systems are that every applicant has a chance of drawing a tag. Those with the higher points have slight advantage over those with less points for drawing the same tag. There is no guarantee of drawing a tag regardless of how many pts you have.
Here are 2 prime examples of how NV's bonus pt system works as intended. It's simple to add up all nonres applicants at different bonus pt levels. In my example I segmented the draw applicants into 3 different categories (0 to 10 bonus pts, 11 to 20, and 21 to 29) using the 2022 draw.
Notice in unit 181 NV desert sheep that only 1 in 135 applicants with 0 to 10 bonus pts drew tags, 1 in 23 applicants with 11 to 20 bonus pts drew, and 1 in 9 applicants with 21 to 29 bonus pts drew a tag. The same thing is extremely consistent and true if you look at NV elk, deer, and antelope units.
The nice thing about bonus pt systems are that every applicant has a chance of drawing a tag. Those with the higher points have slight advantage over those with less points for drawing the same tag. There is no guarantee of drawing a tag regardless of how many pts you have.
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BuzzH
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Not true...16/18 tags went to lower point holders in 181...32/39 in 268.
It's even worse if you look at just the NR draw...
Sharpen that pencil.
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nripepi
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The odds are better the more points you have, it is simple math. There just happens to be way more applicants with 0-10 points. Would you rather have 25 points in NV or 5? I think bonus squared is a fair system, hard to debate it is not the fairest to everyone from 0-30 points. The problem in Wyoming is they sold Preference points for almost 3 decades. I think 50/50 Preference and Bonus squared is the most fair and likely to raise the most non-resident Preference point money at $150 a pop.
BuzzH
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There will be legislators contacted to amend it...or kill it.
BuzzH
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Sharpen your pencil...and run some math. The odds aren't better for top point holders when more and more people enter the draw behind you. Fact.
It is true, that a flood of applicants from the bottom will cause a higher BP-squared applicant to have decreasing odds from one year to the next. (Comparing himself from one year to the next – the Buzz/NV paradox).
But two things:
1. That influx will never happen at $150 BPs.
2. The right hand column in Jims table will always remain true. “Draw % in Category” will always be heavily weighted to high BP holders. I.e., that high BP holder will always be better off comparing himself to the lower BP folks.
Buzz you don’t have a clue how to read stats! There obviously are more applicants in the lower pt categories and tags were drawn in all categories.
Answer this question…would you rather be an applicant that has say 7 pts that 1 in 135 applicants in that category drew tags or have 25 pts that 1 in 9 in that high bonus pt category drew tags?
What you are saying is the guys with 7 and 25 pts have the same chance of drawing. How can that be possible?
Answer this question…would you rather be an applicant that has say 7 pts that 1 in 135 applicants in that category drew tags or have 25 pts that 1 in 9 in that high bonus pt category drew tags?
What you are saying is the guys with 7 and 25 pts have the same chance of drawing. How can that be possible?
You’re both right, just looking at different things.
From one year to next, the Buzz/NV paradox can occur. And that individual person sees his odds go down on subsequent years due to large numbers of BP-squared folks entering from the bottom. (if he is comparing his odds in year X to his odds in year X-1). Buzz’s view.
But that same person is still much better off where at his high BP-squared position than BEING one of those lower level people that just entered. Jims’ view.
From one year to next, the Buzz/NV paradox can occur. And that individual person sees his odds go down on subsequent years due to large numbers of BP-squared folks entering from the bottom. (if he is comparing his odds in year X to his odds in year X-1). Buzz’s view.
But that same person is still much better off where at his high BP-squared position than BEING one of those lower level people that just entered. Jims’ view.
nripepi
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So your saying that less people will enter the draw if it is random then bonus point squared? Doesn't make sense to me. If you are comparing preference to bonus point squared, then preference benefits those with the most points for sure.
nripepi
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That is just what is happening with every system, right? Not because it is bonus squared. Buzz is better off in bonus squared in Nevada then bonus or random, but maybe he would be better in preference.
Correct. Go to Bonus-cubed or even higher if you want to protect NV-Buzz further from a larger influx.
But even if an influx happens and his OWN odds go down from year to year, he is still better off in BP-exponent than the guys just entering below him. But you have to compare NV-Buzz to the other applicants. Not to NV-Buzz from the prior year.
And he is certainly better off with BP-exponent than he is if he were in a matured & saturated PP system (unless he is is placed high enough in that PP system so that he is the last man living and his dad started buying points at 12 years of age). For NRs, WY m/s is at that point. We just can’t see it yet completely until these next few years play out.
What's really nice about the NV system is everyone that applies has a chance to draw each and every tag. In any given year those with higher pts have better odds. Crampy you are absolutely correct that overall draw odds changes with the number of applicants and number of tags issued.
I just looked at draw odds in NV for resident elk, antelope, and deer. There aren't many resident applicants (if any) with 21 to 29 bonus pts still applying for elk, deer, and antelope tags. The reason.....they have all drawn the highest quality tags available!
I just looked at draw odds in NV for resident elk, antelope, and deer. There aren't many resident applicants (if any) with 21 to 29 bonus pts still applying for elk, deer, and antelope tags. The reason.....they have all drawn the highest quality tags available!
BuzzH
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Not with preference its not happening. The point pools behind you don't matter and new applicants don't matter to you either.
Just run some numbers and look at Nevada sheep.
Simplified example:
You started applying with 9 other guys, you're the unlucky one and didnt draw in year 10, you have 100 points.
Now, dump 1000 guys with 1 point...where, 90% of the time is that tag going to fall? Or you have 10% odds.
Now, run the math again with 999 guys with 2 point and you have 11....your odds are now worse than they were the year before. You now have 121 red balls in the hat, they have 1,998 white balls....have your odds improved? Now you have 6% odds.
Now run the math again with 998 guys that now have 4 points each and you have 144...you have 144 red balls in the hat, they have 3,992 white balls in the hat...have your odds improved? Now you have 3.6% odds.
That's after only 3 years....and that's also assuming nobody else entered the draw those 3 years either.
I've ran the math...my odds are getting worse and worse each year because my squared points aren't keeping up with new applicants or all the guys behind me with 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13....etc. etc. squared points.
Here's another example, I have 20 squared points 400...if 401 new people enter the draw, my odds declined.
That is exactly what's been happening every single year I've applied in Nevada, those entering the draw behind me every year dilute your odds significantly.
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BuzzH
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The same exact thing with preference if 50% of the tags are in the random draw...everyone always has a chance to draw on any given year. Just not every tag, but preference rewards the highest point holders.
You're also wrong, the only way a top point has higher chances is against other individuals, collectively the point pools behind you kick your a$$...
Exactly why most of the NR sheep tags every year go to those in the lower point pools than those in the top pools.
BuzzH
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The reason is because they limit NR's to 10% or less of their tags...more tags for less applicants mean you draw more...DUH!
Exactly why 90-10 needs to happen for Wyoming, we'll get more quality tags more often.
It doesn't matter Wyoming sold us preference.
Buzz you still aren’t making sense! I agree with you that there are more new applicants than tags issued.
What you aren’t accounting for is that an applicant who has 20 pts that are cubed has a lot more chance of drawing a limited tag than someone with 1 bonus pt cubed in any given year even if the number of applicants increases.
So do you agree with me that the bonus pt system works as designed for elk, deer, and antelope in Nevada since there aren’t many units with res applying for tags in the 15 to 20+ pt category? That’s because they have drawn tags!
The population of Nevada is 3.18 million and Wyo’s population is about 581,381. That’s a pretty good indication that the bonus pt system in Wyo ought to work pretty darn well for res.
There are so few tags issued to nonres in Wyo that nonres are a different story.
What you aren’t accounting for is that an applicant who has 20 pts that are cubed has a lot more chance of drawing a limited tag than someone with 1 bonus pt cubed in any given year even if the number of applicants increases.
So do you agree with me that the bonus pt system works as designed for elk, deer, and antelope in Nevada since there aren’t many units with res applying for tags in the 15 to 20+ pt category? That’s because they have drawn tags!
The population of Nevada is 3.18 million and Wyo’s population is about 581,381. That’s a pretty good indication that the bonus pt system in Wyo ought to work pretty darn well for res.
There are so few tags issued to nonres in Wyo that nonres are a different story.
BuzzH
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You're just wrong, you can't compare draw odds with 1 individual versus another unless you're the only 2 in the draw. When there's 1200 people behind you in the draw, you have to compare your point totals with the total points of all the applicants in all the pools. In a preference system you don't have to worry about applicants behind you, only those in your pool and higher, you aren't competing with lower point pools.
Like I said, its not my fault you can't understand math or how draws work. I can't make you understand that and when more and more people enter the draw behind you, every year your odds get worse in a squared bonus point system...I already explained it and its a fact.
The reason that NV Resident sportsmen draw more often is because NV keeps 90%+ of their tags for Residents. More tags, more Residents that draw, the fewer points they acquire.
Again, simple math.
It'll absolutely happen. NR continue to buy points that are worthless under the current PP system. Those low point totals have value in a BP system.
HikeHunt61
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Here is the actual math.
If every NR sheep hunter applied in 2023 with current BP in a BP only draw, with 15 permits, using a BP^2 approach:
This uses actual point totals from Wyo G&F. The odds would change directly if more or less permits were in the BP draw.
I ran it for "cubed" as well. The 22 point holder would go from 195-1 to 153-1.
If every NR sheep hunter applied in 2023 with current BP in a BP only draw, with 15 permits, using a BP^2 approach:
| BP | ODDS | |
| 1 | 94,282 | to 1 |
| 2 | 23,570 | to 1 |
| 3 | 10,476 | to 1 |
| 4 | 5,893 | to 1 |
| 5 | 3,771 | to 1 |
| 6 | 2,619 | to 1 |
| 7 | 1,924 | to 1 |
| 8 | 1,473 | to 1 |
| 9 | 1,164 | to 1 |
| 10 | 943 | to 1 |
| 11 | 779 | to 1 |
| 12 | 655 | to 1 |
| 13 | 558 | to 1 |
| 14 | 481 | to 1 |
| 15 | 419 | to 1 |
| 16 | 368 | to 1 |
| 17 | 326 | to 1 |
| 18 | 291 | to 1 |
| 19 | 261 | to 1 |
| 20 | 236 | to 1 |
| 21 | 214 | to 1 |
| 22 | 195 | to 1 |
| 23 | 178 | to 1 |
| 24 | 164 | to 1 |
| 25 | 151 | to 1 |
| 26 | 139 | to 1 |
| 27 | 129 | to 1 |
| 28 | 120 | to 1 |
I ran it for "cubed" as well. The 22 point holder would go from 195-1 to 153-1.
HikeHunt61
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Of course- it will vary up and down based on actual applications per individual unit. But as a whole, the math is correct...
HikeHunt61
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And.... It assumes everyone actually applies, vs just purchases a point. In a BP system, dunno how many would try vs not.
BuzzH
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Take a stats class...you need it.
Squared point systems do not increase your odds over time...new applicants and those above, below, and in your pool decrease them each year...if only obviously. If you don't believe 2286 new applicants each year don't decrease your odds, you're delusional.
I'd try to explain it again, but I've run out of crayons.
HikeHunt61
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Your statement is true. But I can't see where jims said something about odds improving over time. Just that the odds are better for high point folks. Which is clearly the case.
Maybe I missed the "increase your odds over time" comment?
BuzzH
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Sure, your odds against another individual are better, but not a collection of 2,286 new applicants.
My odds of drawing NV were wayyyy better 15 years ago when I had only 5 squared points than my odds now with 20 squared points.
No doubt about it.
So, anybody that tries to tell me a squared bonus point system "works" is high on cat $hit.
The idea behind any point system is to make your odds improve over time, not decrease them.
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HikeHunt61
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Got it. Jims gets it too. If a million people apply next year, the odds for a 25 pt person are impacted negatively to a massive extent. But I'm not sure who you are arguing with. Nobody is saying that isn't true. They are only saying that the odds for folks with more BP are better than odds for less BP. And that is always the case, no matter how many people apply. Simple math, as you say.
BuzzH
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Yes, when comparing an individual your odds are better, but who cares?
Your over-all odds are still declining, not improving over time.
Like I said, the whole intent of a point system is to give the long time applicants improved odds of drawing a tag, not to improve your odds over a single applicant...any system that doesn't do that is not working.
Spin it how you want, but them's the facts...
HikeHunt61
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I'm not spinning anything Buzz. I'm making no claims of improving odds. Just simple facts.
But Buzz- you argue both sides, depending on who disagrees with you. Earlier in this thread, you asked "What happens when moose and sheep populations improve and more tags are issued?" You also asked about people becoming tired of applying and applicants going down (since edited out). If your two propositions come to pass, the odds for those with high BP WILL improve over time.
In the end- the BP approach is surely no panacea. But neither is keeping the PP approach in any way. It is a 100.0000% rip off to anyone with under 20-22 BPs, depending on species. And that is no spin- just a fact.
But Buzz- you argue both sides, depending on who disagrees with you. Earlier in this thread, you asked "What happens when moose and sheep populations improve and more tags are issued?" You also asked about people becoming tired of applying and applicants going down (since edited out). If your two propositions come to pass, the odds for those with high BP WILL improve over time.
In the end- the BP approach is surely no panacea. But neither is keeping the PP approach in any way. It is a 100.0000% rip off to anyone with under 20-22 BPs, depending on species. And that is no spin- just a fact.
HikeHunt61
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And to be fair- keeping the PP system for a while, giving people a chance to transition to another approach, is actually fair. Keeping it forever is just nuts.
Hike – you definitely “get it”. But you are explaining a difficult concept that Buzz doesn’t want to understand. PPs might keep working for residents for years to come. But clearly not NRs.
Thankfully the TF and WGF also “get it” and that’s why they went forward with BP-squared to the legislature. Buzz isn’t going to be able to get the legislature to change it. BP-squared will almost surely pass.
And when it does, my hope is that the mid-20s points guys (NR) wake up and start the GoFundMe.
Hard to believe 2286 NRs bought their very first WY $150 sheep points in 2022 when the writing was already clearly on the wall about Big-5. That is $342,900 in refunds due just to that one group for that one year (and only sheep). WGF took that money in bad faith. And has already started taking money this year from those innocent folks.
Thankfully the TF and WGF also “get it” and that’s why they went forward with BP-squared to the legislature. Buzz isn’t going to be able to get the legislature to change it. BP-squared will almost surely pass.
And when it does, my hope is that the mid-20s points guys (NR) wake up and start the GoFundMe.
Hard to believe 2286 NRs bought their very first WY $150 sheep points in 2022 when the writing was already clearly on the wall about Big-5. That is $342,900 in refunds due just to that one group for that one year (and only sheep). WGF took that money in bad faith. And has already started taking money this year from those innocent folks.
HikeHunt61
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Crampy- I understand the angst with the PP $. Honestly, I believe this has gotten away from the WG&F- without nefarious intent. That's why they are trying to fix it with their approach, which includes that waiting period. If you run the math on both approaches, it limits the damage that the uncontrollable dynamics of politics, real population management issues, and hunter demand have on those who have purchased points. Just my opinion, of course...
BuzzH
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Hard to believe because you haven't been paying attention...its been that way for nearly 2 decades.
We're going to see if the legislature will change the bill...or kill it.
BuzzH
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The Game and Fish isn't trying to "fix" anything, they aren't asking for the change.
Also, there is no "waiting period" with SF88 its once in a lifetime for the big-5 already. That changed with 90-10.
Oh, and SF60, the NR special increase bill is not "dead" either...snafu that it was introduced as a SF instead of a HB.
But I'm sure the MM "experts" already knew all that...
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HikeHunt61
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OK Buzz. It is the TF. Got it.
It'll be interesting to see where it ends up. No matter the approach, if one gets a sheep or moose tag as a NR in Wyoming- relish the opportunity!
It'll be interesting to see where it ends up. No matter the approach, if one gets a sheep or moose tag as a NR in Wyoming- relish the opportunity!
Taking $150 x 2 in early 2022 was bad faith as the 90/10 (big 5) letter from the TF was dated 8/23/21. Everybody knew it was going to pass and the legislature indeed passed it before the March ‘22 draw deadline. They should’ve just put NR m/s points on pause at that time rather than letting innocent people spend MILLIONS in 2022 alone on worthless PPs.
Today, they continue to take $150 x 2 on WGF website for 2023 m/s NR points. That is continuing their bad faith.
Full NR refunds are due on moose/sheep points for all purchases at the last couple price levels. For every year back to the $7 years. Except for the guys that did draw, or will draw up to the BP transition date.
Nobody planned it out this way, but starting 8/23/21, WGF needed to start mitigating and they didn’t.
BuzzH
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Good luck with that!
Laffin'...
Everyone that purchased a point got exactly what they paid for.
If it were up to me, I'd settle it for good and just keep all of the big-5 resident only. Just like North Dakota does with moose.
HikeHunt61
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The "waiting period" I was referring to was the delay in implementation to allow those with 23+ PPs to potentially get tags in the "old" system. I honestly don't know if that made it all the way to the legislature or not.
Nothing to do with once in a lifetime.
BuzzH
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Copy...
HikeHunt61
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I don't think it's as simple as that to mitigate on a dime. We'll just have to disagree on that point.
HikeHunt61
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That's interesting...
nripepi
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There are just too many applicants and not enough tags. The only system that might be better is a preference system and that is debatable. Better for those in it for 20 years, maybe, it depends on the number of tags and how old you are and if you will get that tag while you can still hunt. You are surely better off with Bonus Squared over Bonus and definitely better in Bonus Squared over Random after 20 years if the number of applicants is the same in all systems. 20 years ago, did you sign up for Preference or Bonus Squared?
If everything else holds, then for someone in it for the long haul, the best systems in order are:
Preference, Bonus Squared, Bonus, Random. And this is dependent on the number of tags. This order is only the best if you get in early enough where you could outlive or outlast everyone and get that tag in your lifetime while you can still hunt. Preference works well enough for most species, but for one with very few tags there is zero incentive for someone to get in unless they are 12 years old and plan to outlive everyone.
The most fair system is no bonus or preference points and random. Everyone, no matter your age or time in the system, has the same chance.
If you want to sell increased odds over random odds over time and sell points, then the best system is a bonus squared system. Sure, you likely will never draw your desert sheep tag in Nevada, but it is your best chance over Bonus or Random.
I think Utah's system is the most fair out there, they just don't have enough tags and too many applicants like most states to get many tags in your lifetime, but if you stick it out you will get some tags for sure. 50% to Preference and 50% to Bonus (not squared). I think that is what Wyoming should do if they want to continue to sell high-priced preference/bonus points and not have a lawsuit on their hands. Right now, there is only incentive for those with decades of points to buy preference points as a non-resident or if you are in your teens and plan to outlive everyone.
nripepi
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Not if the Preference is changed to a Bonus. When you spend $400-$500 a year on Preference Points and they get changed one day to a Bonus Point, you surely did not get what you paid for. That is BS and I know you know that.
Wyoming isn't talking about changing the system. They are talking about eliminating PP. A product that we have been buying for decades. Paid for it, now can not use it or even keep it. And then install a new system that will not work either. It's a scam.
BuzzH
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You're just wrong, I'm not buying increased odds in Nevada, like I already have shown you, my odds are declining every year in Nevada under the squared bonus point system.
The numbers don't lie...
The idea of a point system is to increase your odds over time, that simply does not, and is not working with squared bonus points. Never has and never will.
Wyoming made decisions that set this all up.
Now they talk about eliminating PP so they can still collect money from people who will never draw.
It as gotten out of control do to decisions made by Wyoming.
Intent is not relevant.
The problem can not be fixed by eliminating decades product that were sold at high value.
The only honest way to deal with the very bad situation Wyoming has created is for Wyoming to honor the system/contract they took all the money for.
If Wyoming is not trying to "fix' anything why make a change??
I think they are trying to fix a problem they have created. At the huge expense of their costumers.
HikeHunt61
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newhunter- I assume you have 22 or more points, and thus the serious concern? If you have less than 22 sheep points (or 20? moose points), I would submit that the "system/contract" they are proposing is to your advantage. If you have greater than 23, they are "honoring" it through the delayed implementation. Now if you are on the cusp (for sheep, it would be exactly 23 points), one might have a concern. That's a couple hundred people.
Those on the cusp could view it either way- good or bad. If I had exactly 23, I probably wouldn't view the change favorably.
There will be nothing fair about any change. Is a 4/5 year waiting period fair to someone with 9 or 12 points. Or someone spent $1800. for 6 m/s points ?? Yes "keeping it forever is nuts". But Wyoming took thousands of $ from customers for preference. Taking that away from customers is unfair, immoral and maybe illegal.
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You have assumed incorrectly about my PP's.
Bottom line, everyone is aware that the past sheep and moose pref pt system was a joke even before 90/10 cuts! Unfortunately with 90/10 only those with max pts will ever have a chance to draw pref pt tags. Why should nonres continue purchasing pref pts if pts are totally meaningless except for those with max pts. Those with max pts will be the only ones drawing tags after the 90/10 cuts?
It gets pretty complicated splitting up so few tags. Many units only offered 1 tag prior to 90/10 cuts so there will be major loss of opportunity for nonres. Those that have stayed the course should somehow be honored but how will this be done with only a handful of units and tags?
Is splitting up so few tags between random and pref/bonus pt pools still a feasible option? Every time units that previously only offer 1 tag are split it is a loss in nonres opportunity.
It gets pretty complicated splitting up so few tags. Many units only offered 1 tag prior to 90/10 cuts so there will be major loss of opportunity for nonres. Those that have stayed the course should somehow be honored but how will this be done with only a handful of units and tags?
Is splitting up so few tags between random and pref/bonus pt pools still a feasible option? Every time units that previously only offer 1 tag are split it is a loss in nonres opportunity.
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WGF cannot honor the PP deal they made with you because 90/10 on Big 5 happened.
The Ponzi scheme failed and WGF is now trying to keep the money. And they even have the courage to be taking 2023 PP money today. Bernie Madoff didn't get to keep the money and neither should WGF.
Start the GoFundMe and let the courts reallocate the money to the damaged parties. You can't sue to get the tag, but you can sue for money damages.
BuzzH
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The game and fish isn't pushing this legislation, I'm sure they want to leave things alone and keep the preference point system as is.
In full disclosure this is 100% the brain child of Joe Shaffer, president of LCCC who was on the task force. Watch the task force meetings, this was his "baby".
The entire task force was a giant flop that stunk to high heaven of quid pro quo politics.
They all coerced to get their wish lists recommended...and, imo, didn't do much of anything to help either resident or non resident hunters.
Further, public comments were ignored as a best case, and in some cases criticized and even commenters livelihoods threatened by task force members behind the scenes.
I can say for sure that Gordon's office also ignored these complaints when it was brought to their attention. There was ample proof of the rude and dismissive behavior on the task force meeting recordings. Enough in my opinion that some task force members should have been removed.
It's always the same story, policy makers, task force, etc. claim they want input from the public...but their behavior towards those that provide it, clearly prove otherwise.
What they want is support of their confirmation bias...period.
90/10 on big 5 didn't just happen. It was a decision Wyoming made.
So yes they can honnor the PP deal. There are several ways. No one likes them, but Wyoming made these decisions. They can still honnor their obligations.
BuzzH
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How is splitting tags 50-50 between random and preference complicated? You have 40 available tags, 20 to preference draw, 20 to random draw.
Pretty difficult...WOW!
It is informative to know how this came about. This info doesn't change anything. It does tell us Wyoming is a mess, and may do things that are immoral and illegal. The impression I take away from what you have written is: Is Wyoming is corrupt.
GoFundMe is premature. Can't/shouldn't fund a class action until suit as been filed. Can't file suit until there have been damages.
Wyoming has done nothing to eliminate PP yet.
I could/might be wrong. Maybe full of chit. I'm not a lawyer.
BuzzH
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You think?
I like you NewHunter! But I can't figure you out.
A NR with >23-25 PPs should want the PP Ponzi to continue.
All residents should want the PP Ponzi to continue.
But I don't understand why you would with few NR points. Are you buying PPs for m/s in 2023 and hoping for huge m/s population explosion?
nripepi
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I don't think I am wrong. I understand your odds are getting worse every year because more people are entering into the system, that is life and is happening in all of the systems. Bonus Squared is better for you than Bonus or totally Random options. Did you not sign-up for Bonus Squared 20 years ago? I understand Preference could potentially be better for your situation, but it relative to where you stand in the system.
BuzzH
Long Time Member
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Maybe his hair isn't some shade of blue or gray?
50/50 is super complicated for nonres if you look in detail at tag numbers! Every pref pt unit that only had 1 tag issued prior to the change may have 0 nonres tags issued with additional 50/50 cuts. A total loss of opportunity with 0 tags issued to nonres with max pts in that particular unit.
In 2022 there were 6 nonres sheep units that only offered 1 tag. Every tag that is fragmented from the pref pt pool with 50/50 would mean the loss of opportunity for nonres with max pts in those units.
Obviously everyone is fine and dandy when wildlife populations are stable and doing well. What happens to individual unit tag quotas if the sheep or moose population drops? This complicates things even further when highly limited tags are cut, split, and fragmented.
Cutting nonres opportunity in 1/2 with 90/10 and then slicing the few pref pt pool of tags that remain/unit again with 50/50 is pretty darn complicated when you look at specific tag and unit details and it's implications!
In 2022 there were 6 nonres sheep units that only offered 1 tag. Every tag that is fragmented from the pref pt pool with 50/50 would mean the loss of opportunity for nonres with max pts in those units.
Obviously everyone is fine and dandy when wildlife populations are stable and doing well. What happens to individual unit tag quotas if the sheep or moose population drops? This complicates things even further when highly limited tags are cut, split, and fragmented.
Cutting nonres opportunity in 1/2 with 90/10 and then slicing the few pref pt pool of tags that remain/unit again with 50/50 is pretty darn complicated when you look at specific tag and unit details and it's implications!
I have been buying PP's in Wyoming for m/s.
I have said I will no longer buy them. Things could change, I don't see that happening. I have said I will send my $330. plus the money I would have donated to Wyoming to a anti-hunting organization be used only in Wyoming. I mean that.
I'm easy to figure out, I want I paid for.
Wyoming sold me preference to it's wildlife. I want just that.
It's what I paid for. Very interesting that for you to think I would want anything but what I bought. Very simple.
I have said I will no longer buy them. Things could change, I don't see that happening. I have said I will send my $330. plus the money I would have donated to Wyoming to a anti-hunting organization be used only in Wyoming. I mean that.
I'm easy to figure out, I want I paid for.
Wyoming sold me preference to it's wildlife. I want just that.
It's what I paid for. Very interesting that for you to think I would want anything but what I bought. Very simple.
BuzzH
Long Time Member
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Wrong, straight bonus points would be better than squaring points...sharpen that pencil.
I absolutely signed up for squared bonus points, but that doesn't change the fact that YOU claimed, wrongly, that the system improves my odds over time, want me to repost your quote? That clearly isn't true.
I have no problem with NV's system, I just accept that it does nothing to improve my odds over time.
I also don't mind paying for wildlife conservation even if I'll never directly benefit from that support. To me, knowing my money keeps animals on the landscape, pays for its protection and management is good enough.
I also realize each state can decide on any system they want and I make the decision to participate or not. I also realize that its up to the States citizens to decide how to manage that wildlife and that as a NR I have next to no sway with the wishes of other states Residents.
There is no legal avenue to pursue, the States control their wildlife, period. And that includes adopting any point system they want, changing them when they want, deciding how much of the resource they want to share with NR's etc.
That same level of respect is NOT shown to Wyoming and IMO, it is because Wyoming was wayyyy too generous to NR hunters for wayyyy too long. Now that Wyoming Residents want to move in line with how other states treat their Residents, the entitlement NR attitude rears its ugly head.
I have no grievance with NV in how they manage their wildlife and run their draw. You should have grievance with how WY manages ours.
HikeHunt61
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I did notice that a fair amount of people applied for units with zero tags offered in the PP draw for sheep. Did Wyoming publish which units would have a permit available for random vs pp last year, prior to the application deadline? I assumed not, since folks somehow were able to apply for zero tags...
BuzzH
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Wrong alternate years in areas with 1 NR tag...or if there are 2 separate areas that each issue one tag, one area is open to random, one to preference.
Real tough...
BuzzH
Long Time Member
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yes, like they do every year.
DaveD
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I have seen several in this thread write off people with less than 20PP. Please know that not everyone was chasing the top areas. In 2021 a non-resident drew a bull moose permit with 7 points. There are several other tags that were drawn with far less than 20 points over the last couple of years. I don't have 20PP but have been very close to drawing on several occasions. One year I was 50/50. The next year it jumped several points.
I count 9 moose permits that went for less than 20 points last year. In 2021, there were 17 that were drawn with less than 20. These are not counting the random tags that were also drawn.
The change to 90/10 of course eliminated any reasonable chance any of us had in the middle point classes.
I am anxiously awaiting the WG&F's decision on how PP will be handled going forward.
I count 9 moose permits that went for less than 20 points last year. In 2021, there were 17 that were drawn with less than 20. These are not counting the random tags that were also drawn.
The change to 90/10 of course eliminated any reasonable chance any of us had in the middle point classes.
I am anxiously awaiting the WG&F's decision on how PP will be handled going forward.
Yes complicated. Still seems to be the best answer for Wyoming to provide the preference it sold.
HikeHunt61
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Not that it has anything to do with changes in approach- but seems like Wyo could keep hunters from picking units with zero points pretty easily...
HikeHunt61
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Ya, sheep has a pretty solid line. Moose has a little more wiggle room.
BuzzH
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Its not complicated. The GF did the 75-25 splits for R/NR allocations for 3 decades. They accomplished it by alternating years that NR's could apply for tags in areas that issued less than 4 permits.
Example, area had only 2 sheep tags, one NR, one R tag so that NR's received a full 25% of the available sheep tags.
This isn't rocket science...
nripepi
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I agree. This is simple and if one side wanted bonus squared so bad, then you could do 50% preference and 50% bonus squared or meet in the middle and do 50/50 with preference and bonus. Simple and similar to what some states do like Utah and everyone can be happy and stop talking about this.
BuzzH
Long Time Member
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Really? How do you fix stupid?
If they publish the areas that will have available tags and people still apply for an area that doesn't offer a tag, well...that's not the GF's problem.
I see the same thing in Montana every year.
Part of applying is understanding how the draw works, what areas have tags available, etc.
Precisely how I always have an active application and how I drew an AZ desert tag with 11 points. I took the time to understand how the draw worked.
I didn't apply for a tag where it was assured that the top point holders would draw it in the preference pass, making my application DOA. I wanted an active application so applied where the tag would go in the random pass.
Its not the GF's job to provide pacifiers and training wheels.
Have you found that organization yet?
After this legislative session, I suspect there might be other NRs looking for somewhere to place that $330.
nripepi
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I sharpened mine, did you sharpen yours? Bonus Squared increases your odds relative to other systems like straight bonus. If the same amount of people enter the system annually, then it obviously increases over time.
Bonus Squared is definitely better for you, 46% better if my math is correct than straight bonus with 20 points and equal distribution of points holders at each point level. If there is more at the lower levels, then it is even better for you, 86% better if there are 10X more at the 1-point level and distributed down evenly to 20 points. Sure your overall odds decrease with more at the lower levels, but that is the risk you signed up for and should have known there would be an increase in applicants overt time.
I thank you for fighting to keep preference points on the table at 50/50. I respect that and think it is the fair thing to do.
If everything was reversed: you were sold and bought 20 years of preference points in Nevada, paid $2,000 for your preference points, were very very likely to draw your one and only sheep permit or in this case only desert sheep permit in the next ten years, then Nevada changed the system from Preference to Bonus Squared and your odds went from 95% in the next 10 years to less than 1% you would ever draw, would you be okay with it? Or would cry a bit on an online forum?
DaveD
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I believe the 50/50 Buzz has been discussing makes the most sense but stating everyone should be happy is laughable. 100s of people with points similar to me have gone from a reasonable chance to get a tag in their lifetime to almost no chance in our lifetime. However, adding the random element at least provides a little intrigue. Some people will get lucky and draw and at least my donation will be going towards something I care about.
BuzzH
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Yes, because I realize and fully understand, under the law, that its the State's right to distribute and manage wildlife any way they see fit. Doesn't mean I have to like it, but I'm not going to cry about it.
I can give you specific example's where I have actively supported or opposed changes that directly impact me personally.
I supported the change to once in a lifetime for the big-5 here in Wyoming, including going retroactive for anyone currently under a waiting period from drawing in the past 5 years. My testimony is recorded at the task force meeting. That means I voted against myself, since I was under a waiting period for sheep.
I also opposed Montana's NR native OTC licenses even though I qualify for, and have taken advantage of the licenses since that law passed. How many people that take advantage/qualify for that program do you think drove to Helena to testify against it?
I can tell you, very, very, very few people that hunt, EVER look out for anyone but themselves first. I've seen it my entire life. They don't care about others, don't care about the resource, etc.
They support or oppose legislation, laws, rules, etc. based strictly on how its going to impact THEM and their ability to run a hook or bullet through an animal...period.
So, no, I would not be throwing my sucker in the dirt, stomping my feet or holding my breath because NV chose to change their draw system. Most certainly wouldn't be suing or talking about suing.
It is what it is.
What I'm trying to do, and getting nothing but grief over, is trying to come up with a way to impact as few of people as possible with this total garbage proposed legislation. My idea, while not perfect, is far better than what anyone else has proposed. Like I said, personally, I don't care, I'm not ever participating in whatever system is ultimately adopted either way.
I feel an obligation to work on a solution that is more palatable than a squared bonus point system that clearly will never work. Not sure why, when all I get is grief for it? Just seems like the correct thing to do.
I can also say for 100% fact, I wouldn't be busting the balls on the only resident trying to make things more palatable for me if NV was trying to change their system.
You are correct. Apologies for my sheep bias (over Moose).
If the legislature passes BP-squared, the musical chairs just stopped. And several hundred NRs are looking for a chair to plop down in for 2023. Those NRs at 23+ (sheep, less for Moose) are going to be bidding down for lesser tags each of these last few years as this shakes out (up to the transition deadline). How far down to bid to ensure you get out before the transition deadline? Nobody knows.
Some portion of those folks don’t know anything about this yet.
When the deadline hits (if not before), one of those NRs will decide to be the named plaintiff and start the GoFundMe.
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yes.
Ok Buzz, I can only handle so much ignorance! You have provided absolutely nothing to back up your statements in regard to the different draw systems and draw odds.
Please show us what you got and prove to us all the difference in draw odds between 1) no pt system, 2) pref pt system, 3) bonus pt, and 4) squared bonus pts.
Since you are so great with math and stats lets see how simple or complicated this is! Either put up or shut the heck up!
Lets try a simple example and figure out what the draw % is for each of the 4 systems.
Lets make it simple. The max number of pref pts in the unit a hunter is applying for is 20. What is the draw odds if a hunter has 0 pref pts vs 10 pts vs 20 pts with each of these systems.
There are 1000 applicants for 1 tag. There were 500 applicants with 0 pts, 100 with 10 pts, and 20 with 20 pts. Prove to all of us what you know and how the draw odds work for each of these systems! What are the draw odds with the indicated pts:
1) No preference points 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
2) Preference point system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
3) Bonus pt system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
4) Squared bonus pt system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
My guess is Buzz has no clue how to come up with these numbers. I can pretty much guarantee he has an excuse for not coming up with them....because he doesn't have a clue how to do this!
Please show us what you got and prove to us all the difference in draw odds between 1) no pt system, 2) pref pt system, 3) bonus pt, and 4) squared bonus pts.
Since you are so great with math and stats lets see how simple or complicated this is! Either put up or shut the heck up!
Lets try a simple example and figure out what the draw % is for each of the 4 systems.
Lets make it simple. The max number of pref pts in the unit a hunter is applying for is 20. What is the draw odds if a hunter has 0 pref pts vs 10 pts vs 20 pts with each of these systems.
There are 1000 applicants for 1 tag. There were 500 applicants with 0 pts, 100 with 10 pts, and 20 with 20 pts. Prove to all of us what you know and how the draw odds work for each of these systems! What are the draw odds with the indicated pts:
1) No preference points 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
2) Preference point system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
3) Bonus pt system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
4) Squared bonus pt system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
My guess is Buzz has no clue how to come up with these numbers. I can pretty much guarantee he has an excuse for not coming up with them....because he doesn't have a clue how to do this!
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nripepi
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I agree with you. Signed by someone with 22 sheep and moose points.
HikeHunt61
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Ya- that puts you right near the cusp- hope you get a permit eventually, no matter what they do. You sure have stuck it out!
nripepi
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I will stop busting balls on statistics class. I am supporting your 50/50 as it seems the most fair system to me, though 75/25 would definitely be in my best interests. If I don't get my refund for my preference points I bought, it is what it is, but I will 100% ask for it for sure if the system gets changed.
LivingTheDream
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The only reason NR are buying points now is because they don't understand the system or they are hoping for BP squared (I would prefer cubed).
50/50 sounds great, but still leaves guys with 18 points or less in no man's land with no reason to continue buying points. I'm sure there is some concern that revenue will drop if these people stop buying points.
Betting on people to die/quit, or sheep/moose populations to explode probably isn't a great strategy if you have less than 18 points.
50/50 sounds great, but still leaves guys with 18 points or less in no man's land with no reason to continue buying points. I'm sure there is some concern that revenue will drop if these people stop buying points.
Betting on people to die/quit, or sheep/moose populations to explode probably isn't a great strategy if you have less than 18 points.
This whole things seems pretty crazy to me. What it gets down two is there is three kinds of groups. Group one are the guys in the system that have been in there a long time and actually have a chance of sometime in their lifetime of getting a tag, group two are the guys that have already drawn a tag and hunted but want to jump back in and go again. Group three are the guys that came late to the party and realize they don't have a chance at getting a tag. Group 2 and 3 want to change the system to fit their needs. You cant do something to the system to increase your odds without lowering somebody else's odds. Simple mathematics when you cant increase the tag quota.
Its like a bunch of kids in the lunch line at school. The last tray of cinnamon rolls are brought out and there are 20 rolls left. There are still 100 kids in line. The 80 kids that realize they wont get one (due to them screwing around and not getting in line when they were supposed to) want to change the way they are passed out. Maybe they want the line to stop and everyone draw straws to see who gets a roll.
What this thread is about, is how can I change the system in place so I can "TAKE CUTS IN THE LINE" (how can I increase my odds). It cant be done without screwing over somebody that has been playing by the rules from the beginning.
Now I have no skin in the game. I had a few moose points but when they raised the point costs and the actual tag costs years ago I bowed out.
Sadly to say, the State of Wyoming will probably change the system. Why you ask?, because they want to sell points and make money. The current system when looked at from a business model will loose revenue. Actually the way it is now with no random tags due to 90/10, it is probably stupid for anyone to buy sheep, moose, and goat points unless you are at max points or maybe a point or two below because you will never draw if you aren't. But that doesn't make it right to change the system in place so people have the opportunity to take cuts in my opinion. Sleep in the bed you made!!!
Its like a bunch of kids in the lunch line at school. The last tray of cinnamon rolls are brought out and there are 20 rolls left. There are still 100 kids in line. The 80 kids that realize they wont get one (due to them screwing around and not getting in line when they were supposed to) want to change the way they are passed out. Maybe they want the line to stop and everyone draw straws to see who gets a roll.
What this thread is about, is how can I change the system in place so I can "TAKE CUTS IN THE LINE" (how can I increase my odds). It cant be done without screwing over somebody that has been playing by the rules from the beginning.
Now I have no skin in the game. I had a few moose points but when they raised the point costs and the actual tag costs years ago I bowed out.
Sadly to say, the State of Wyoming will probably change the system. Why you ask?, because they want to sell points and make money. The current system when looked at from a business model will loose revenue. Actually the way it is now with no random tags due to 90/10, it is probably stupid for anyone to buy sheep, moose, and goat points unless you are at max points or maybe a point or two below because you will never draw if you aren't. But that doesn't make it right to change the system in place so people have the opportunity to take cuts in my opinion. Sleep in the bed you made!!!
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BuzzH
Long Time Member
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If revenue drops just charge more for NR tags...oh wait, they're already doing that too.
LivingTheDream
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I was going to say charge more for points.
Dvolmer
You are the smartest guy on here.
Everyone trying to screw each other.
Gladly I can’t see what BuzzH and Super spreader are babbling.
I vote you get to decide what’s right.
I agree sleep in the bed you made!
Nevada guys were doing simulator crap
But the state cleaned up the manipulation.
This time,the state of Wyoming did it with the 90/10.They either did it because they have a long term plan to make more money or they are incompetent.I think they are 3 steps ahead of the the guys fighting on here.
You can dang sure believe they are looking at this from a different angle.
They don’t care who gets the tags. Just how much money they can get.
You are the smartest guy on here.
Everyone trying to screw each other.
Gladly I can’t see what BuzzH and Super spreader are babbling.
I vote you get to decide what’s right.
I agree sleep in the bed you made!
Nevada guys were doing simulator crap
But the state cleaned up the manipulation.
This time,the state of Wyoming did it with the 90/10.They either did it because they have a long term plan to make more money or they are incompetent.I think they are 3 steps ahead of the the guys fighting on here.
You can dang sure believe they are looking at this from a different angle.
They don’t care who gets the tags. Just how much money they can get.
DaveD
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I'm not happy about 90/10 but it sure doesn't have anything to do with increased revenue. 90/10 lowers the WG&F income directly in license sales and may have some impact going forward on PP sales.
nripepi
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From a revenue point of view, I think 50/50 with preference and bonus squared on the other side will sell the most $150 points. All those at 20+ will stay in and buy for the preference and those with few points might buy to increase odds on bonus squared. If it goes to just bonus squared, those with 20+ might just apply and not buy another point to increase odds slightly.
From a revenue point of view, you are probably correct and possibly this might come to pass (even though i totally disagree with this). But the fact of this scenario is that if this goes through, 50% of the high point holders who would have gotten a tag in their lifetime will now not get a tag. The system will allow people to take cuts like I mentioned before. It amazes me, how many sportsman want this to happen so they can get into the game at the cost of screwing their fellow hunter that has put the time, investment, and research in that they didn't do.
Once again, I have no skin in the game. I have no moose, sheep, or goat points in Wyoming and I don't plan on buying any. I have never drawn any of these tags. I just see greed and cant keep my mouth shut. The state will probably do this through their greed and I guess they have the ability to do that. But that doesn't make it right. Why does a dog lick its butt?, because it can! Just because they can doesn't make it right. But the bigger issue is all of the hunters who down deep hope this comes to pass at the expense of others. Why don't you go next door and steal your neighbors new gun or his new boat you are coveting so bad??? They are worth less than a sheep tag! no difference in my book.
nripepi
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I hear ya. I have 22 sheep points and if it went 50/50, I might not get a tag for 20+ years or ever. I think it is a decent compromise for those playing the game for decades and paying the bills vs. going full bonus squared.
Wow! Do you happen to recall the years and amounts of the price increases on your 22 sheep points? Any idea what your total cost was?
The current bill is BP-squared + up to 4 yr transition. And that is both the WGF staff & TF recommendation. Legislature could change/decline it, but this is perhaps the most nuanced of all the TF issues. So I suspect legislators are going to defer to their designated experts on this one and pass it.
And at 22 PP you unfortunately won't be able to get a PP ram tag inside that 4 year transition.
If it's any consolation, 22*22 = 484. A big number!
Will be interesting if WGF applies their rule on taking years off to BPs also. It might be nice if you could just sit on 22BPs, but they might make you keep buying BPs or expire them out with too many years dormant.
I'd get your WY driver's license and buy an old RV and park it at an RV park in WY for a year if I was you. Flip it to the next guy on MM after you shoot your ram.
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