SF060 Dead for now… Task force a failure or success?

[BuzzH]

From a revenue point of view, you are probably correct and possibly this might come to pass (even though i totally disagree with this). But the fact of this scenario is that if this goes through, 50% of the high point holders who would have gotten a tag in their lifetime will now not get a tag. The system will allow people to take cuts like I mentioned before. It amazes me, how many sportsman want this to happen so they can get into the game at the cost of screwing their fellow hunter that has put the time, investment, and research in that they didn't do.

Once again, I have no skin in the game. I have no moose, sheep, or goat points in Wyoming and I don't plan on buying any. I have never drawn any of these tags. I just see greed and cant keep my mouth shut. The state will probably do this through their greed and I guess they have the ability to do that. But that doesn't make it right. Why does a dog lick its butt?, because it can! Just because they can doesn't make it right. But the bigger issue is all of the hunters who down deep hope this comes to pass at the expense of others. Why don't you go next door and steal your neighbors new gun or his new boat you are coveting so bad??? They are worth less than a sheep tag! no difference in my book.

There are no goat points in Wyoming never has been, so nobody is losing goat points.

 

[nripepi]

Wow! Do you happen to recall the years and amounts of the price increases on your 22 sheep points? Any idea what your total cost was?

And at 22 PP you unfortunately won't be able to get a PP ram tag inside that 4 year

I'd get your WY driver's license and buy an old RV and park it at an RV park in WY for a year if I was you. Flip it to the next guy on MM after you shoot your raram

Pretty sure it is close to $1800 over 22 years. Could be off a bit perhaps.

7 years @ $7
10 years @ $100
5 years @$150

Yep, I was on pace to draw very soon if no changes were made 90/10 and bonus squared will make it very difficult to ever draw. Bonus squared might not help much if I become a resident! Would have to do it ASAP.

 

[BuzzH]

Pretty sure it is close to $1800 over 22 years. Could be off a bit perhaps.

7 years @ $7
10 years @ $100
5 years @$150

Yep, I was on pace to draw very soon if no changes were made 90/10 and bonus squared will make it very difficult to ever draw. Bonus squared might not help much if I become a resident! Would have to do it ASAP.

Ask wapitibob, he knows for sure. I know my NR father drew a moose in the preference draw in 2012 and IRRC, he only paid $75 for a moose a year or maybe 2. He didn't mess around, when he thought he had the points, he drew, there were 3 tags in his point pool and 4 applicants.

I started applying in 1998 and they were $7, I moved to WY in the winter of 2000 so I don't remember when the fees increased. I know that UT was $5 for sheep and deer in 1998 as well. Still haven't drawn a tag of any kind in UT either, but have a metric chit ton of points though.

 

[jims]

Buzz, I knew you don’t know how to calculate bonus and cubed pts! Truth is, overall the draw odds are much better for those with high pts than with 50/50! If not, answer my post comparing the different systems!

Please show us what you got and prove to us all the difference in draw odds between 1) no pt system, 2) pref pt system, 3) bonus pt, and 4) squared bonus pts.

Since you are so great with math and stats lets see how simple or complicated this is! Either put up or shut the heck up!

Lets try a simple example and figure out what the draw % is for each of the 4 systems.

Lets make it simple. The max number of pref pts in the unit a hunter is applying for is 20. What is the draw odds if a hunter has 0 pref pts vs 10 pts vs 20 pts with each of these systems.

There are 1000 applicants for 1 tag. There were 500 applicants with 0 pts, 100 with 10 pts, and 20 with 20 pts. Prove to all of us what you know and how the draw odds work for each of these systems! What are the draw odds with the indicated pts:

1) No preference points 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
2) Preference point system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
3) Bonus pt system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
4) Squared bonus pt system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?

 

[HikeHunt61]

For those who love math:

This assumes the following:
* This if for the current, exact sheep point total holders per WG&F going into 2023.
* 15 permits for sheep allocated. If you want the odds for something else, like 30, simply divide the odds by the ratio of the difference (30/15=2). Twice as good.
* Over time, assuming more people keep applying, the odds can change a bit. Pref point would remain the same, Randoms and BP would get a little worse or a little better depending on all sorts of factors.
* For random and BP, it assumes everyone with points applies for an actual permit. Under PP, this is not ever true- many just buy points. Under BP, way more will take the chance, because well, they have a chance. But who knows how many will really do that. No crystal ball math here.
* For PP, it assumes the highest point holders stick with it. For every 15 who drop out, take off one year of waiting around. (LOL)
* Obviously- these odds are probably within +/- 20% of being what would actually happen- based on the variety of factors that will actually change. But they illustrate approx what would happen.

 

[HikeHunt61]

Couple things you might notice about the odds:

BP squared and cubed do have some mild effects on 20pp holders- but it surely isn't some earth shattering improvement.

BP squared and cubed actually HURTS 10 point holders. They'd be better off with random than with squared or cubed.

One could make an argument that going to cubed makes little sense (one might even make that argument for squared). The tiny bit of odds improvement for cubed that the 20 point holder gets is devastating to any chance a new entry gets. Not sure if a 20 pt holder cares if his odds are 236 or 203 to 1, but a new entrant would care about 1.6M to 1 vs 94000 to 1.

 

[newhunter]

From a revenue point of view, I think 50/50 with preference and bonus squared on the other side will sell the most $150 points. All those at 20+ will stay in and buy for the preference and those with few points might buy to increase odds on bonus squared. If it goes to just bonus squared, those with 20+ might just apply and not buy another point to increase odds slightly.

nailed it.

 

[DaveD]

Couple things you might notice about the odds:

BP squared and cubed do have some mild effects on 20pp holders- but it surely isn't some earth shattering improvement.

BP squared and cubed actually HURTS 10 point holders. They'd be better off with random than with squared or cubed.

One could make an argument that going to cubed makes little sense (one might even make that argument for squared). The tiny bit of odds improvement for cubed that the 20 point holder gets is devastating to any chance a new entry gets. Not sure if a 20 pt holder cares if his odds are 236 or 203 to 1, but a new entrant would care about 1.6M to 1 vs 94000 to 1.

At what point total does it start to benefit the middle point holder to go cubed... asking for a friend

 

[HikeHunt61]

At what point total does it start to benefit the middle point holder to go cubed... asking for a friend

Sorry, had to laugh.

Based on the math with all those assumptions the inflection point is around 17 points.

 

[Bookhead]

Guess what none of it will matter in the long run when the pp/BP system is 50-100 years old so what difference does it make? Everyone will be gunning for the random tags

 

[BuzzH]

Buzz, I knew you don’t know how to calculate bonus and cubed pts! Truth is, overall the draw odds are much better for those with high pts than with 50/50! If not, answer my post comparing the different systems!

Please show us what you got and prove to us all the difference in draw odds between 1) no pt system, 2) pref pt system, 3) bonus pt, and 4) squared bonus pts.

Since you are so great with math and stats lets see how simple or complicated this is! Either put up or shut the heck up!

Lets try a simple example and figure out what the draw % is for each of the 4 systems.

Lets make it simple. The max number of pref pts in the unit a hunter is applying for is 20. What is the draw odds if a hunter has 0 pref pts vs 10 pts vs 20 pts with each of these systems.

There are 1000 applicants for 1 tag. There were 500 applicants with 0 pts, 100 with 10 pts, and 20 with 20 pts. Prove to all of us what you know and how the draw odds work for each of these systems! What are the draw odds with the indicated pts:

1) No preference points 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
2) Preference point system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
3) Bonus pt system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?
4) Squared bonus pt system 0-?, 10 pts ?, 20 pts?

Project those odds over a 20 year span....you can't predict future odds when you don't know how many people will enter the draw over that time.

You're attempting to claim that an individuals odds increase over time under a squared bonus point system (or cubed, you seem confused) and that simply is NOT true.

Your odds decline over time, you only have perceived better odds when you're comparing a single individual with 1 point versus a 20 point applicant. You can't do that, you're not competing for a tag with one individual, but rather all the combined points of every other applicant.

 

[WapitiBob]

Wow! Do you happen to recall the years and amounts of the price increases on your 22 sheep points? Any idea what your total cost was?

The current bill is BP-squared + up to 4 yr transition. And that is both the WGF staff & TF recommendation. Legislature could change/decline it, but this is perhaps the most nuanced of all the TF issues. So I suspect legislators are going to defer to their designated experts on this one and pass it.

And at 22 PP you unfortunately won't be able to get a PP ram tag inside that 4 year transition.

If it's any consolation, 22*22 = 484. A big number!

Will be interesting if WGF applies their rule on taking years off to BPs also. It might be nice if you could just sit on 22BPs, but they might make you keep buying BPs or expire them out with too many years dormant.

I'd get your WY driver's license and buy an old RV and park it at an RV park in WY for a year if I was you. Flip it to the next guy on MM after you shoot your ram.

When I asked Jennifer:

The nonresident moose and bighorn sheep preference points were $7 starting in 1996 until the fee was raised in 2006. In 2006 moose was $75 and Sheep was $100. The fees for both were raised in 2018 to $150.00

 

[nripepi]

When I asked Jennifer:

The nonresident moose and bighorn sheep preference points were $7 starting in 1996 until the fee was raised in 2006. In 2006 moose was $75 and Sheep was $100. The fees for both were raised in 2018 to $150.00

That is a bit more than I estimated. Looks like I am in $3663 and 22 years. If they do go to Bonus Squared, will they get rid of the 2-year requirement on buying a point in order to keep your points? It seems like that would be an even crappier thing to do to those that paid into the system for decades.

 

[nripepi]

Project those odds over a 20 year span....you can't predict future odds when you don't know how many people will enter the draw over that time.

You're attempting to claim that an individuals odds increase over time under a squared bonus point system (or cubed, you seem confused) and that simply is NOT true.

Your odds decline over time, you only have perceived better odds when you're comparing a single individual with 1 point versus a 20 point applicant. You can't do that, you're not competing for a tag with one individual, but rather all the combined points of every other applicant.

You are both correct! Odds go down over time as more people enter. If you are in for the long-haul and rise anywhere close to the top of the point pool your odds get better with bonus squared over bonus and obviously bonus or bonus squared over random. There is not a ton of difference between the three for those in the middle of the pack assuming an even distribution of bonus points or assuming more at the lower end. The low end of bonus points is way worse for bonus and bonus squared and the higher end is better for bonus squared or bonus. Bonus Squared definitely incentivizes those with a low number of points to buy some points to move their odds up.

What is not being talked about is who is going to pay the 2.5% at the low end for really really low odds in bonus squared. Might as well take that money and go to the casino.

 

[maddog58]

I wish NV would go to ALL random tags and Wy too. I would give up all my points . Just so you know I’m sitting on 20 desert sheep in NV

 

[DaveD]

I wish NV would go to ALL random tags and Wy too. I would give up all my points . Just so you know I’m sitting on 20 desert sheep in NV

I just wish there were more moose and sheep to hunt...

 

[DoubleDropMuley]

Maybe be too late at stopping bonus points damn it ?, I’d kinda like the 50/50 idea!! But I’ve got a bighorn and a moose under my belt and ate a moose tag cause I didn’t see any that had me interested in pulling the trigger and I’m fine with it !! Not a fan of any point systems myself !!

 

[Bookhead]

Bonus points are dumb as hell

 

[jims]

Can you honestly say that pref pts are a great option for all but those with max sheep pts? Pref pts will take 808 years for anyone with 1 pt to draw or 64 years for those with 20 pts. Do you actually believe the WG&F will sell any pref pt at $150/pop if hunters have 0 chance to draw? Talk about a dumb program!

At least with bonus pts everyone that applies has a small chance of drawing.

With a pure random draw everyone at least has the same chance but how many guys are going to live 808 years? Everyone may have 808 to 1 draw odds with random today but 10 years from now it likely will be 1,500 to 1 draw odds!

Across the board, the draw odds decrease with every draw system with more applicants applying for fewer and fewer proportion of tags.

 

[BuzzH]

Can you honestly say that pref pts are a great option for all but those with max sheep pts? Pref pts will take 808 years for anyone with 1 pt to draw or 64 years for those with 20 pts. Do you actually believe the WG&F will sell any pref pt at $150/pop if hunters have 0 chance to draw? Talk about a dumb program!

At least with bonus pts everyone that applies has a small chance of drawing.

With a pure random draw everyone at least has the same chance but how many guys are going to live 808 years? Everyone may have 808 to 1 draw odds with random today but 10 years from now it likely will be 1,500 to 1 draw odds!

Across the board, the draw odds decrease with every draw system with more applicants applying for fewer and fewer proportion of tags.


View attachment 100394

You're a dense one....when I drew my WY sheep tag I had 100% draw odds. When I drew my first WY moose tag I had 100% draw odds. I wasn't close to a max point holder.

That system decreased my draw odds?

How did that system decrease my odds over time?

And this last post from jims reminds me of another important issue, kids you shouldn't smoke crack.

 

[LIK2HNT]

So, when does SF0088 go into affect?

 

[BuzzH]

So, when does SF0088 go into affect?

If it passes 2027

 

[jims]

Buzz, glad you brought up kids! The pref pt pool of tags is absolutely meaningless to kids and new hunters just starting off.

It’s obvious that Kids and those starting off will have 0 chance of drawing the entire pool of pref pt tags in their lifetimes while they have a slight chance drawing each and every year like everyone else with bonus pts.

The WG&F is also aware that with 90/10 tag cuts nonres pref pts are even more meaningless and nonres have no reason to purchase pts. Where does the WG&F get 70% of their license and pref pt revenue….from nonres!

It’s a joke if you think a nonres kid will ever draw a Wyo sheep or moose tag with the current pref pt system! There may only be 1 nonres sheep tag available in the random pool. I pulled my son out of the sheep and moose draw years ago because I saw the writing on the wall!

With bonus pts there is no doubt I would still be applying my son for sheep and moose in Wyo…we apply in Utah every year but not Wyo! I’m certain a lot of nonres will pull the plug in Wyo if they have the chance in NV and UT to draw bonus pt tags each year! Nonres in Colo actually have a better chance to draw sheep tags once they get 3 pts than Wyo!

If Wyo wants to stick with a faulty pref pt system good for them! I can guarantee they will lose out on nonres pref pt $ to other states! Like I’ve been saying all along, Wyo slit their own wrists going to 90/10!

 

[nripepi]

Buzz, glad you brought up kids! The pref pt pool of tags is absolutely meaningless to kids and new hunters just starting off.

I think he actually did think of the kids with his 50/50 proposal. Definitely resident kids for sure. Total random on one side is for the kids and preference is for those in the game the longest. If you start as a kid, you likely draw in your 50s or 60s as a resident if you apply every year for $7. Non-res is a different story.

 

[jims]

I don’t see pref pts working for even res. Someone needs to make a spread sheet with applicants and number of tags.

Unit 5 handed out the most res random tags in 2022. There were 18 tags for 1291 applicants that didn’t draw unit 5. It would take 72 years before all current applicants are gone. That means your son has 0 chance to draw a unit 5 tag for potentially 72 years. I’m sure a few will die and some move or drop out. With bonus pts your son has a chance each and every year to draw the current pref pt pool instead of 0!

Now let’s look at the random pool of tags. As Buzz has pointed out multiple times the number of Wyo applicants is increasing every year. Every year from now until your son is 72 the draw odds for your son will decrease even worse than they already are in the random draw. Your sons chance to draw a unit 5 tag in the random pool in 2022 was 6 tags for 1291 applicants or 1 in 215. Each year that is getting worse and worse.

In the mean-time your son is wasting his time and money buying pref pts with 0 chance to draw. He may have hopes he will some day draw a sheep tag with a faulty pref pt system but my guess is that most Wyo res young hunters will not draw in their lifetimes, especially with pref pts.

Is it worth it to have a faulty system in place where those that are applying in the pref pt pool of tags have absolutely 0 chance to draw 50% of and the total tags issued each and every year? I guess it’s up to Wyo res to decide?

 

[BuzzH]

I don’t see pref pts working for even res. Someone needs to make a spread sheet with applicants and number of tags.

Unit 5 handed out the most res random tags in 2022. There were 18 tags for 1291 applicants that didn’t draw unit 5. It would take 72 years before all current applicants are gone. That means your son has 0 chance to draw a unit 5 tag for potentially 72 years. I’m sure a few will die and some move or drop out. With bonus pts your son has a chance each and every year to draw the current pref pt pool instead of 0!

Now let’s look at the random pool of tags. As Buzz has pointed out multiple times the number of Wyo applicants is increasing every year. Every year from now until your son is 72 the draw odds for your son will decrease even worse than they already are in the random draw. Your sons chance to draw a unit 5 tag in the random pool in 2022 was 6 tags for 1291 applicants or 1 in 215. Each year that is getting worse and worse.

In the mean-time your son is wasting his time and money buying pref pts with 0 chance to draw. He may have hopes he will some day draw a sheep tag with a faulty pref pt system but my guess is that most Wyo res young hunters will not draw in their lifetimes, especially with pref pts.

Is it worth it to have a faulty system in place where those that are applying in the pref pt pool of tags have absolutely 0 chance to draw 50% of and the total tags issued each and every year? I guess it’s up to Wyo res to decide?

Wow, sounds like you really screwed your own son over. If you would have been buying him moose and sheep points all along, think of how good his odds would be under the proposed bonus points squared system!

Oh, and jims, can you hang some photos of the sheep, moose, goat, or bison tags your son has drawn in Utah?

With the great system in Utah and your awesome understanding of statistics and scrooge like money management I'm sure he has drawn all 4 by now?

 

[JB1975]

I don’t see pref pts working for even res. Someone needs to make a spread sheet with applicants and number of tags.

Unit 5 handed out the most res random tags in 2022. There were 18 tags for 1291 applicants that didn’t draw unit 5. It would take 72 years before all current applicants are gone. That means your son has 0 chance to draw a unit 5 tag for potentially 72 years. I’m sure a few will die and some move or drop out. With bonus pts your son has a chance each and every year to draw the current pref pt pool instead of 0!

Now let’s look at the random pool of tags. As Buzz has pointed out multiple times the number of Wyo applicants is increasing every year. Every year from now until your son is 72 the draw odds for your son will decrease even worse than they already are in the random draw. Your sons chance to draw a unit 5 tag in the random pool in 2022 was 6 tags for 1291 applicants or 1 in 215. Each year that is getting worse and worse.

In the mean-time your son is wasting his time and money buying pref pts with 0 chance to draw. He may have hopes he will some day draw a sheep tag with a faulty pref pt system but my guess is that most Wyo res young hunters will not draw in their lifetimes, especially with pref pts.

Is it worth it to have a faulty system in place where those that are applying in the pref pt pool of tags have absolutely 0 chance to draw 50% of and the total tags issued each and every year? I guess it’s up to Wyo res to decide?

You sure whine alot. How do you have time to put on your cape to fight cheatgrass?

 

[elknr]

Haha. I was not talking about you proposed splits. I never said I was opposed to it. I do believe that the squared bonus is better than current situation. So calm down just a touch and realize that I was only comparing current system with the current proposal on the table.

As a result the new proposal is preferable to the current. And yes, even with the random my son would be much more likely to die with a pile of poo at then he would draw the random.

But again my preferred all the way around is to ditch the entire system and go back to 100% random and let the chip fall where they fall… oh I hardly ever ***** to you not sure I ever have, but in the future I don’t for see me bitching to you…

Squared bonus points is a bad idea!
I agree with buzz. I had a better chance with lower points. In Nevada. Plus max points are never guaranteed anything. 50/50 split pref point

 

[newhunter]

Sent $1000. to Western Watershed project today.
They assure me it will be used only in Wyoming.
I hope I get a better value than I did from WFGD.
Thanks Buzz.