Well..................Nemont,
Although I agree with many of the financial experts like Rogers, I don't subscribe to 100% of their advice. There is a triangulation effect between the ppb of oil, gold, and the value of the dollar.
Most gold plays are on a 3-5 year outlook, I made mine in 2006. Real estate at 40% gdp was about to burst, toxic loans were abundant, the dollar was dropping in value, trillion pumped into the economy, and oil was on the rise.
These were all flags that the economy was heading downhill. My time horizon on gold was 3 years and this week I will be out completely. Why Feb.? Chinese New Year Gung hey fat choy my brother from another mother, every Feb, gold gets a bump as buying gold pieces is a part of Chinese tradition.
A smell of panic in the air (I love Paulson and Bush) caused a lot of money to head into gold. Now there are commercials on radio and TV about buying your used gold. Predictions are rampant that gold may jump to as high as $1,500.00 an ounce.
When Ed McMahon wants to buy my Gold it's time to sell.
The Spdr Gold Fund Index (bullion backed) has a record number of shareholders. Gold has enjoyed a very welcomed Chinese New Years which has caused this latest temporary uptick ( I love the Chinese).
Which is exactly why I will be out within a few days. Gold in and of itself is a poor investment over time. It is a place to stay safe when it's price is not being dictated by a speculative market.
The market over the last year has been completely speculative. Leaving time-horizon buyers such as myself in desired position. However, as is the nature of gold, panic buyers which bought at $850 in Oct. during the Paulson Pleas have seen very little movement on their investment.
Take a look at Gold on the macro level. Largest importer of gold is India. India imports of gold are down 90% due to high prices. However prices for gold are not high due to a lack of gold, because there is no shortage of physical gold in the world market. Prices are up based on speculation largely due to a world recession and falling currency values.
This is not the first time gold has escalated quickly in value and the history of it's booms and busts are well documented. We are seeing a classic gold boom, exacerbated by the financial crisis/meltdown, 2 wars, multiple areas of political instability, skyrocketing national debt, falling currency values, and well deserved panic.
China has basically walked away from the metals markets. Although the recession is touted as global, China's economy will still grow at 8-9% instead of 11-13% we only wish we had their problems. Overall China, Russia, and Dubai are responding to the global slowdown by curtailing building projects.
This has left metals such as copper, zinc, and steel as very attractive buys with a 3 year window. The Economic Stimulus along with low interest rates will enable short-term recovery nationally compounded with corrections in the global credit markets. We may see a restart or resumption on the global demand for raw building metals.
Now back in 2006 I thought Hillary would be President and we would have a rather predictable presidency. Now with Obama I think we will see the gold bubble bursting earlier than I originally thought. I figured with Hillary 2/11, but with Obama I think it will be 9/10, only 7 months away.
India's shrinking imports along with gold's use in consumer products is actually causing less global demand. Gold was having a hard time just holding at $875.00. Now it may go further up in speculation value no doubt, but the global market simply cannot support $1,000, let alone $1,500. for very long.
If gold can maintain $1,500.00 than us hunters will have plenty of an even more desired commodity...Guns and Ammo.
Your charge for my gold outlook is 6,000 rupees Nemont.