Surrendering a permit.

[Itisbig]

I was wondering for you that have turned your permit back in could help me. I had 13 points and drew a paunsaugunt rifle. My wife is expecting our first and her due date is the week of the deer hunt. Yes I know I could have planned this better but we have been trying to have a baby for a few years now. I was wondering if I turn my permit back will I draw it for sure next year? I know I get my points back and should be able to draw it again. Anyone have any thoughts?

 

[one_dryboot]

No you will not draw for sure next year.

 

[goofyelk]

Turn it back now, and get your money refunded,
minus a $25 hadling fee.....................

Give the guy that gets the lucky phone call some time to look.

And yes, 14 points will pull the tag again next year.

 

[huntinfanatic]

14 points will definately pull the tag next year.

 

[one_dryboot]

Ok, while you will probably draw the tag next year, it is still not a sure thing. Tag cuts, hunters switching hunts ect. will have an impact. So you're not guaranteed until you see your name on That tag, again...

 

[Foxskinner]

While the draw odds aren't out for this year yet, here is my estimation for your hunt odds next year.

If you go to this page, you can see your odds last year with 12 points:
http://www.biggamedrawodds.com/big.game.draw.odds.utah.resident.rifle.deer.paunsaugunt.html

Theoretically you would have been in the 13 point pool this year with the other 40 guys who didn't draw last year with the same points as you. There would have been about 35 guaranteed tags again this year. With people switching over units and such, I'd say about 25 of those 40 drew this year with 13 points like you did leaving about 15 people going into next year with 14 points. If the permit numbers stay the same and you get about the same number of applicants jumping units, I would say you have a very good chance of drawing the tag next year.

While nothing is ever guaranteed for drawing as people have said (permit number decreases, increase in applicants, and such) I would estimate that you would most likely draw the tag next year. My two cents worth on the numbers anyway. Good luck.


www.biggamedrawodds.com

 

[huntinfanatic]

By my estimate unless the permits are cut by 80% or 30 guys with 14 points or more decide that the Henrys now suck and switch to pauns(which neither of those will happen)you will draw.

 

[Itisbig]

Thanks to all of you that responded. I am going to turn it back and try to draw it in 2014. Thank you!

 

[bragabit]

When my wife turned her tag back a few years ago for medical reasons they gave her the option to get her points and money back, or defer the tag until next year. I am not sure if that option is only valid for medical reason with a Dr. note.