LAST EDITED ON Aug-22-14 AT 08:01PM (MST)[p]>Let the complaining begin - and
>I will start it.
>Second Draw Antelope, Non-Resident, total
>odds at drawing a tag
>0.017857 (1.7%) chance. Which also
>means that essentially 99% of
>the remaining antelope tags went
>to residents. Awful... Plain
>Awful... And "Non-Resident quotas" are
>not supposed to apply on
>the second draw? Right!!!! On
>top of that only 17
>remaining deer tags went to
>Non-Residents. Not that anyone
>cares, but my Non-Resident money
>for applications will never again
>be spent in Idaho -
>one of the only western
>states that I will not
>be applying for next year.
>And not because I didn't
>draw - I normally don't
>draw in the majority of
>the Western States I apply
>for - but because my
>chances are so extremely slim
>and in the end I
>don't even have a bonus/preference
>point to show for it.
> I know, I know....
>I've heard just about every
>argument in favor of Idaho's
>system, but I don't like
>it. Never have.
>Never will.
2nd draw antelope draw odds for residents on all tags 0.014535, thats a 1.4% chance. Draw odds are horrible for everybody in the second draw. If you are going to apply for a desirable tag in the second draw look at it as a lottery ticket because that is really all it is. For example the draw odds on the 9 leftover unit 42 pronghorn tags alone were .9% total for anybody. Got that? Less than 1% lets look at some desirable deer tags for more examples. If you combine the 5 total tags for unit 40 and 45 deer, any applicant whether resident or non resident had a less than .3% chance. Not less than 3% less than 3/10ths%. Let me spell that out for you, less than three tenths of a single percentage point or in even simpler terms that maybe your simple mind will understand less than 3 of every 1000 applicants will draw a tag. I do not think I can put it any more clearly, you have much closer to a 0% chance than a 1% chance at a sought after deer tag, and for a good antelope tag you have closer to 0% than to 2% chance at drawing. I probably have a better chance of being struck by lightning than you do of drawing a tag in Idaho's second draw.
For clarification purposes this is not a blast on Idaho's draw it is simply a statement of fact and a dose of reality for you all. Look at it this way if roughly 80% of people don't draw in the first go 'round, and you add the people on waiting period, as well as trophy species applicants you actually have almost the same amount of demand for maybe 1% of the tags available in the 1st draw. It is almost unreasonable to even believe you have a snowballs chance in hell, but that is exactly what it is a big swing at a very small chance which is why most of us will play each year.