Being an accountant who pretends to dabble in some numbers I find the entire concept pretty interesting from that perspective.
When it is all said and done I really don't think the "premium" units will be affected very much. Those odds were so low to begin with that there would have to be a huge swing in applications to make much difference. Most would be going single digit odds to single digit odds. Say 9% down to 6%, or 5% down to 3%. Statistically those are decreases of 40%, but to the individual applying for the tag, they were already long shots and still will be.
My gut feel says that a decent number of folks may drop out of the application process since their cost will be going up 400% while thier odds would be going down 40%. It's hard to say exactly how many will drop out though. Based on the initial reaction of many on the internet forums it might be substantial, but I'm not sure. If the number of folks applying on these premium units drops in half, then the folks that are left will actually have a slight increase in their drawing odds. Not sure if that will happen though.
On the "non premium" tags they are going to be affected much more dramatically. As I mentioned in my earlier post, in the past the 12% guided pool went unused in many of these units, especially on the deer side. Those moved over to the nonresident nonguided in the past and we enjoyed very high draw odds on these units. Now the unused 10% guided pool moves over to the residents so instead of 22% of the tags going to nonguided nonresidents, only 6% will for a drop of 73%. To keep the odds the same there would have to be a 73% reduction in the number of applicants and I don't think that will happen.
I can't decide if some of the folks that were previously applying for the premium units might move down to some of the medium quality units or if they will drop out completely. Not sure if the kind of guy that is just wanting to go hunting is going to be willing to spend the extra $ to apply each year or not. If we assume that the number of applications will drop in 1/2 then the draw odds would actually improve in some units and drop a bit in other units depending on the number of guided tags that were going unused.
Remember, we've already had a pretty decent drop in the number of deer applications when they went to pay in advance for the tags instead of just paying the application fee so the ones that are left are probably a little more dedicated folks so not as many might drop out.
Again, I think the $65 isn't as big of an issue as the decreased odds, but the combination is the double whammy. If New Mexico had implemented the fee this year and then a few years down the road cut the %, I don't think there would have been as big of a backlash.
Then again, some folks think that for each one of the crybaby nonresidents posting here that quits applying that there will be 50 brand new hunters willing to take their place and contribute to the New Mexico economy. If that's the case there will for sure be no reason to apply because the odds will be completely worthless.
If I was a gambling man I would set the over under on 2012 nonguided nonresident applications at a reduction of 33% from the 2011 applications.
This year is likely my last to apply in NM.
