2024 pre draw results thread

[Bookhead]

I was curious to see some opinions on this pre draw this year and see how the conversation goes after the draw.

 

[BuzzH]

My mind won't change, leave it as is.

I've not drawn some really high odds tags, I've also drawn some really long shot odds tags, and some in between over the past 24 years.

I see no reason to change anything.

 

[nfh]

it is frustrating to never draw a hard tag and watch others get it a lot. but i understand a point system would start out with some good odds to get that tag but hell few years down the road be playing that horrible point chase game. so basically no thanks to any points

 

[mulecreek]

Leave it as is.

Easy decision for DEA in Wyoming, at least in my mind.

 

[mulecreek]

First year as a WYO res., 1997, I drew an area 56 Type 1 elk tag. Was too foolish and naive to know what I had in my hand at the time. Since then, I have drawn a total of 0 Type 1 elk tags.

But I get to hunt and kill bulls every year. Wyo is awesome!

 

[jm77]

I don't see a 50/50 PP/random system hurt a thing in DEA.

 

[Bookhead]

I don't see a 50/50 PP/random system hurt a thing in DEA.

In my mind that's the best route as well

 

[mulecreek]

I don't see a 50/50 PP/random system hurt a thing in DEA.

What would it help with?

 

[jm77]

What would it help with?

Those situations where someone draws 8 out of 10 years, for example, and someone else draws 1 or 2 out of 10 years. Nothing is perfect, including 100% random, but 50/50 would help even some odds out, while still giving everyone a chance. Single digit draw areas can't be helped at all, with any system, random or not.

 

[DoubleDropMuley]

I’ll let you know my thoughts tomorrow

 

[mulecreek]

Those situations where someone draws 8 out of 10 years, for example, and someone else draws 1 or 2 out of 10 years. Nothing is perfect, including 100% random, but 50/50 would help even some odds out, while still giving everyone a chance. Single digit draw areas can't be helped at all, with any system, random or not.

I suppose whether either of those scenarios is a problem depends on which side of the coin you land on. Doubt the 8 out of 10 guy thinks there is a problem. But I see your point and yes it would help that to a degree. Would also decrease overall draw odds for everyone. Which is why I dont favor PP's for DEA.

 

[Bookhead]

I suppose whether either of those scenarios is a problem depends on which side of the coin you land on. Doubt the 8 out of 10 guy thinks there is a problem. But I see your point and yes it would help that to a degree. Would also decrease overall draw odds for everyone. Which is why I dont favor PP's for DEA.

Technically it wouldn't reduce draw odds assuming you have the same amount of tags and the same amount of residents it would only spread the tags out more evenly

 

[nfh]

I’ll let you know my thoughts tomorrow

hopefully a sad day for you

 

[jm77]

Would also decrease overall draw odds for everyone. Which is why I dont favor PP's for DEA.

True, except for the top point holders. That's the whole idea I guess.

I can take them(points) or leave them, done with the drama from the past.

 

[DoubleDropMuley]

hopefully a sad day for you

 

[mulecreek]

Technically it wouldn't reduce draw odds assuming you have the same amount of tags and the same amount of residents it would only spread the tags out more evenly

Hypothetical example. Unit with 100 tags. 200 people apply. Under current system, 50% draw odds every year.

50/50 PP/Random. First year all 200 have max points. 25% draw odds in the PP pool and 33% in the random. Odds are not additive. You have lower odds overall. Assume nothing ever changes. 2nd year, you have 33% odds in the PP and 33% in the random. 3rd year 50% in PP and 33% in random. 4th year 100% in PP and 33% in random.

A very simplistic look and possibly wrong, but it does not paint a rosy picture in my mind. Now throw in the reality of people jumping units, party apps, lower tag numbers, higher tag numbers, more applicants, etc. and I will take random for DEA over points every time. Even if it means some SOB gets more tags than me over time. My $0.02.

 

[Bookhead]

Hypothetical example. Unit with 100 tags. 200 people apply. Under current system, 50% draw odds every year.

50/50 PP/Random. First year all 200 have max points. 25% draw odds in the PP pool and 33% in the random. Odds are not additive. You have lower odds overall. Assume nothing ever changes. 2nd year, you have 33% odds in the PP and 33% in the random. 3rd year 50% in PP and 33% in random. 4th year 100% in PP and 33% in random.

A very simplistic look and possibly wrong, but it does not paint a rosy picture in my mind. Now throw in the reality of people jumping units, party apps, lower tag numbers, higher tag numbers, more applicants, etc. and I will take random for DEA over points every time. Even if it means some SOB gets more tags than me over time. My $0.02.

I'm not following your math in this example. But I think every resident should get the tags they earn by preference. Why should some guys get 10 or 20 premium elk tags in a lifetime and others get none?

 

[mulecreek]

Why should some guys get 10 or 20 premium elk tags in a lifetime and others get none?

Because probability is a b!tch. However, under the 50 PP/50 Random scenario this statical probability will continue to happen where some are have's and others are have nots. It's never really bothered me, but I can see how it could bother others.

 

[elks96]

Leave it completely random. Apply every year and just play the odds. No one should get preference. No handouts and no stupid pyramid schemes etc.

So far my wife is like 0/5 for a lope tag that is over 70% odds. But somehow between our family someone pulls a really low odds tag. She would not want to hurt others because she is unlucky.

Points are a scam and pretty much anywhere they are started they are trying to figure out how to fix it.

I also question how many guys really draw 8 of 10 on low odds. The few times I have heard about this, further investigation reveals it is a rumor.

My neighbor was pissed that a guy down the steeet had drawn a “hard to get lope tag” every single year for almost a decade. After further research only once did he draw a type one tag. He instead was drawing a type 2 tag and then drawing a few doe fawn tags etc. again I’m a quality unit but he was not drawing the good tag. Every year he would brag about hunting antelope again…

I had a friend beat Ferris odds for elk 3 times drawn in 6 years. But is has been 12 years now and he has not drawn an elk or deer tag and like only 2 lope tags. He beat the odds for a few years. But now it is catching up to him.

Leave it alone. Have everyone in your family apply and when one draws make it a family trip.

 

[Wyo_Roadhunter]

I'll always vote for a limited draw waiting period. Still buy your general every year but 5 year waiting period before you can apply for limited entry again

 

[MaineFlatlander]

I’ll be a resident in a few short years. Get it figured out before I get there.

 

[Bob D.]

I'll always vote for a limited draw waiting period. Still buy your general every year but 5 year waiting period before you can apply for limited entry again

This is what I was going to say. Just have waiting periods and no point systems. Seems like the fairest way to do it. Maybe not 5 years, could be just 2 years, or 3.

 

[Bookhead]

I'll always vote for a limited draw waiting period. Still buy your general every year but 5 year waiting period before you can apply for limited entry again

In a round about way still a preference type system that's what I meant with the poll. Just curious to see what people think definitely not a bad idea

 

[grosventrehunter]

I’ll be a resident in a few short years. Get it figured out before I get there.

Will you still be a Maine Flat Lander once you make the move?

 

[Conrad8899]

I'll always vote for a limited draw waiting period. Still buy your general every year but 5 year waiting period before you can apply for limited entry again

I like this idea...

 

[ralphie]

100% random please.

 

[MaineFlatlander]

Will you still be a Maine Flat Lander once you make the move?

Hmmmmmmm