Low numbers, low numbers, low numbers......STOP!!Draw is being done now
Somebody scored! Hopefully its not an area 10 early.Lowest random number was 21 out of 100,000,000. Hopefully it was for something good for their sake.
Same here man! Thats what I’m hoping for.Let’s go! Sheep tag !!!
If you look at the odds for NV you’ll see that there isn’t really a “no man’s land” for NR atleast. Your odds of just about any elk tag with 18 points are pretty much all single digit if no less then single digit for most of the top end tags. I’d get your name in there every chance you have as you more likely then not could go your whole life and never get one, even if you’re young and have 18 points alreadyI am looking for any late season deer tag with my 10 points. I would also take an antelope tag with my 6 points. I put in for an elk point as my 18 is pretty much no mans land and I have a primo Colorado 3rd season deer tag in 33 hopefully.
He’s not young… Wisz should just donate his 18 points to me since I’m back to ZERO.If you look at the odds for NV you’ll see that there isn’t really a “no man’s land” for NR atleast. Your odds of just about any elk tag with 18 points are pretty much all single digit if no less then single digit for most of the top end tags. I’d get your name in there every chance you have as you more likely then not could go your whole life and never get one, even if you’re young and have 18 points already
OMG...I thought we were friends...one more year and we'll be chasing "monster" bulls in Colorado. Can't wait!He’s not young… Wisz should just donate his 18 points to me since I’m back to ZERO.
Lol… Me either man, I’m really looking forward to it.OMG...I thought we were friends...one more year and we'll be chasing "monster" bulls in Colorado. Can't wait!
The video host yesterday stated the draw results would post to our account first, then emails, cards charged, and points updated last.No CC hit on my end yet…
I drew my DBH tag last year with a 0.7% chance, so it is possible!So, with 28 nonresident desert sheep points, I have 785 of those 1.8 million numbers for 17 tags. That roughly gives me a 0.7% chance. But I have a chance!
Have you been trying to draw or just buying points?
I gather that you must have drew a Nelson DBS tag at some point?
So, with 28 nonresident desert sheep points, I have 785 of those 1.8 million numbers for 17 tags. That roughly gives me a 0.7% chance. But I have a chance!
You deserve a tag!!! 28 years is a long wait.I’ve got 28 resident CA BHS points, never put in for BP only, still waiting with 2% odds this year….
Good luck on the draw this go around.
That’s crazy! I can’t believe you haven’t drawn yet. Good luck.30 points for desert sheep. Applying since 1984.
I just did the same calculation, but with 30 points (901 chances), 188 tags and 970,000 total draw numbers. That is 17.4% overall. Odds will vary a lot more for residents due to picking higher or lower demand hunts for lower choices. Seems like you should draw in the not too distant future..... Good luck!30 points for desert sheep. Applying since 1984.
Can't believe you haven't drawn elk with that many points. Very discouraging....Looks like many of us are in the same boat:
Points:
Deer - 11 (3-tags)
PH - 4 (5-tags)
Elk - 27
DBHS - 31
CBHS - 28
RBHS - 5
MG - 12
Good luck to all. Crossing my fingers this is my year for Sheep and Elk.
I was thinking the same thing.Can't believe you haven't drawn elk with that many points. Very discouraging....
I keep hoping folks will get discouraged and stop applying... as it is many of us will die with bonus points.Can't believe you haven't drawn elk with that many points. Very discouraging....
Once the effects of the boosters finally manifest the odds will get better.since the covid year the amount of applications have really sky rocketed it is crazy the amount of people applying for tags.
Hahaaaaaa!!! Best comment on this thread!Once the effects of the boosters finally manifest the odds will get better.
My numbers are extremely similar to yours, except I hit on a unit 111 archery elk tag in 2007 (my odds were 6%). Do you know what your odds are now for one of the premium archery elk tags? Just curious how the squared points policy has affected those chances.Looks like many of us are in the same boat:
Points:
Deer - 11 (3-tags)
PH - 4 (5-tags)
Elk - 27
DBHS - 31
CBHS - 28
RBHS - 5
MG - 12
Good luck to all. Crossing my fingers this is my year for Sheep and Elk.
Ouch....makes me hurt knowing I only have 15 and you're at 30.30 points for desert sheep. Applying since 1984.
The reality is most of us will run out of health and will never draw sheep, regardless of points. I’m around 26 pts but don’t keep track and don’t expect anything. My wheels are falling off badly. It just escalates yearly. Seems you beat the odds on the deer though.Ouch....makes me hurt knowing I only have 15 and you're at 30.
I drew 231 deer (rifle) with 9 points and 221-223 late rifle with 11 so Nevada has been good to me.
So in 2007 the odds for my tag with 7 points was 6%, and today a guy with 29 squared points has even lower odds of 2.3%. And a guy with 7 points today only has 1/10th of 1% lol. Nice to know the more points we buy, our odds decrease anyway.used to calc the NV odds, but haven't in sometime, but sat at the PC and geeked out today. Here's the odds for two NR units ALW based on 2023 apps and number of tags for 2024, and only factoring in 1st choice odds, too hard for a simple guy like me to calc the odds across all 5 choices... A low demand and a high demand unit (1st season).
View attachment 146018
Thanks Debbie!!So in 2007 the odds for my tag with 7 points was 6%, and today a guy with 29 squared points has even lower odds of 2.3%. And a guy with 7 points today only has 1/10th of 1% lol. Nice to know the more points we buy, our odds decrease anyway.
You might think odds are decreasing, but the guy with 29 points is most likely happy to have 2.343% odds than having 0.006% with 1 point. It's all how you look at it. All hunting odds in all states are worse than they were. All basic economics, higher and higher demand for a dwindling supply.So in 2007 the odds for my tag with 7 points was 6%, and today a guy with 29 squared points has even lower odds of 2.3%. And a guy with 7 points today only has 1/10th of 1% lol. Nice to know the more points we buy, our odds decrease anyway.
A lot of folks donating to Wildlife. That’s better for the species and horrible for the odds!So in 2007 the odds for my tag with 7 points was 6%, and today a guy with 29 squared points has even lower odds of 2.3%. And a guy with 7 points today only has 1/10th of 1% lol. Nice to know the more points we buy, our odds decrease anyway.
My guess is they start posting around lunchtime tomorrow. This is a complete guess, I have no insider information.Enough of the debating. Either we were lucky or not. They promise to post sometime before tomorrow at 6 pm. They have done anything from 12 am to a bit late in recent years. When do they post?
Excuse me! I was just stating the facts. Didn’t even criticize the system. Just evaluating the numbers. Don’t get your panties in a bundle. Glad I’m set for tags this year, and through 2028 thanks to advanced planning in preference point based states. I don’t have to uncork my frustration on others, like some folks.Thanks Debbie!!
Yes...you are set already. Congrats by the way on the Utah tag.Excuse me! I was just stating the facts. Didn’t even criticize the system. Just evaluating the numbers. Don’t get your panties in a bundle. Glad I’m set for tags this year, and through 2028 thanks to advanced planning. I don’t have to uncork my frustration on others, like some folks.
I drew an elk tag last year in Idaho first try. Got lucky. The odds are always stacked against you but you’ll miss every tag you don’t apply forYou might think odds are decreasing, but the guy with 29 points is most likely happy to have 2.343% odds than having 0.006% with 1 point. It's all how you look at it. All hunting odds in all states are worse than they were. All basic economics, higher and higher demand for a dwindling supply.
Take all you can get....they are hard to come by!I want one more, although I have an OK tag in Utah.... Is that gluttony?
Not at all… You might be on a lucky streak, pulling any tag in UT is an accomplishment. lolI want one more, although I have an OK tag in Utah.... Is that gluttony?
Rookie numbers hahaI have zero patience… it’s going to be a LOOOONG day. I have been up for 2 hours & have already checked my NDOW account, email & CC account at least 5 times.
I hope they post earlier today. I have to jump on a plan at noon and so will have to wait even longer if they don't post before take off.Todays the day! Last year they posted at about 11:00 am.
Good luck to everyone!!
Try being overseas for work right now. I might be pulling an all-nighter.I have zero patience… it’s going to be a LOOOONG day. I have been up for 2 hours & have already checked my NDOW account, email & CC account at least 5 times.
I will pass on that. I just got home yesterday from an 8 day job in Seattle. Good luck to ya & hopefully they post up early so you can get to bed.Try being overseas for work right now. I might be pulling an all-nighter.
Yep! I set that up awhile back.Gotta have the bank alert on for when they post at night. Since they’ll be posted during the day and heard it’s going to be posted before the CC hits this year ill just be checking my account every five minutes
I’ve got 7 cow points as a resident.Is 6 points enough to draw any NR rifle antlerless elk tags? Never researched it but have been putting in lately. Just curious....
I would guess more than likely you'll draw. I actually don't see how you wouldn't draw unless you put in for only the lowest % hunts.Is 6 points enough to draw any NR rifle antlerless elk tags? Never researched it but have been putting in lately. Just curious....
You're extremely unlucky if you're not just buying points. It's really hard as a resident not to draw a cow tag with 6 points.I’ve got 7 cow points as a resident.
That is good to know...rationing elk steaks and burger isn't fun. I need an elk tag somewhere......anywhere.I would guess more than likely you'll draw. I actually don't see how you wouldn't draw unless you put in for only the lowest % hunts.
Is 6 points enough to draw any NR rifle antlerless elk tags? Never researched it but have been putting in lately. Just curious....
Statistically I think the draw odds are lower to draw a cow elk than a bull tag. At least they are for a resident, not sure about NR.Is 6 points enough to draw any NR rifle antlerless elk tags? Never researched it but have been putting in lately. Just curious....
My buddy drew a really good unit NR archery cow tag last year with 1 point. You just never know.Last year I finally drew resident archery cow with 10 points but others were drawing with zero.
Resident?! That's insanely bad luck not to get an archery tag.Last year I finally drew resident archery cow with 10 points but others were drawing with zero.
Depends on the hunt. I just looked for NR and it's much easier to draw a cow tag. About a tenth of the applications per tag.Statistically the draw odds are lower to draw a cow elk than a bull tag. At least they are for a resident, not sure about NR.
Resident?! That's insanely bad luck not to get an archery tag.
I drew both my ALW bull and cow tags with 3 points as a resident.
I have 6, nothing yet.Is 6 points enough to draw any NR rifle antlerless elk tags? Never researched it but have been putting in lately. Just curious....
THIS year....for bofe of us!!I have 6, nothing yet.
I have 9 bull points as well. Not just buying points. I know someone who drew a bull tag same area as my first with 0 points and I had 7.You're extremely unlucky if you're not just buying points. It's really hard as a resident not to draw a cow tag with 6 points.
Maybe this year! The quality of most of the Nevada hunts is worth the wait.That’s crazy! I can’t believe you haven’t drawn yet. Good luck.
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