THE PRESS DEMOCRAT
U.S. citizenship gave Alejandra Warden the right to vote in 2002, but the confidence to become a foot soldier in a presidential campaign would not come until she heard Barack Obama speak of change.
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"I felt that Obama was speaking to my heart and telling me you have the right to express your voice," said Warden, who came to the United States in 1993 two years after marrying a U.S. citizen in her native Argentina.
That's the message she's trying to convey to Latinos registered to vote, a growing constituency that some experts say could help determine the outcome of this year's presidential race.
An estimated 2.6 million Latinos are expected to vote Tuesday in California's primaries, an increase of more than 500,000 since the 2004 presidential election, according to the Los Angeles-based Tom?s Rivera Policy Institute, a research unit of the University of Southern California School of Policy, Planning and Development.
Nationally, the number of Latino voters who will go to the polls in November could increase by 1.7 million voters, a jump of 23 percent from the 7.6 million Latinos who voted in 2004, according to the policy institute.
The Pew Hispanic Center, a non-partisan research center in Washington, puts the increase at a more conservative 1 million new Latino voters, a 13 percent increase from 2004.
Recent polls show Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., stands to receive most Latino votes in California on Tuesday. The statewide Rasmussen Reports poll Friday showed Clinton and Sen. Obama, D-Ill., in a statistical tie among all voters, but Clinton polled 27 percentage points ahead of Obama among Latino voters.
Alethea Candia, a 33-year-old Latina who attends Santa Rosa Junior College, cast an absentee vote for Clinton two weeks ago, "for one, because she's a woman."
Candia said she also supports Clinton because she "stayed with her husband even when he was not being faithful and she's a strong congresswoman."
Candia said large numbers of Latinos support Clinton because she's more familiar to them.
"I didn't hear a lot about Obama before they started to go out and campaign," she said. "There's nothing wrong with him. I just don't know him. I don't know his values. I haven't seen a lot of research on him. I'm just more familiar with Hillary."
But Obama appears to be gathering support from some Latinos because of his support for granting driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Obama has criticized Clinton for backing away from such a proposal in New York state.
Candia said the Latino vote is likely to become a stronger constituency in future elections.
National estimates of the number of Latino voter trends use as a baseline survey data from the U.S. Census. In Sonoma County, determining local voting trends among Latinos is difficult because the county Registrar of Voters Office does not require voters to specify race or ethnicity.
Even so, local elections officials expect national trends to apply on the North Coast.
"It's obvious to all of us in Sonoma County that the Latino community is a growing community," said County Clerk Janice Atkinson, who heads the office. "I think it's going to be a very important bloc of votes."
Local Latino leaders are hoping to tap into this growing bloc to increase Latino representation, both nationally and in local offices.
A new group, the Coalition for Latino Civic Engagement, which includes local scholars, business leaders and politicos, is trying to organize two voter registration drives in March.
It's not the first time Latino leaders have tried to get the so-called "sleeping giant" into the voting booth. During the pro-immigration rallies in 2006 that drew thousands of Latinos into the streets of Santa Rosa, the rallying cry was: "Today we march, tomorrow we vote."
But in the months that followed, local registration efforts fizzled, in part because a significant number of Latinos in Sonoma County are either too young to vote or cannot vote because they are not U.S. citizens. Many are in the country illegally, said Rene Meza, a Latino community leader.
"A lot of folks have been trying to do this for years. There have been some successes and some setbacks," said Meza, one of the principal organizers of the Cinco de Mayo Festival in Santa Rosa's Roseland neighborhood.
Meza, who is part of the Coalition for Latino Civic Engagement, said the group's efforts will target the November election and beyond.
He said the message is three-pronged: Ensure those who register to vote actually vote; register new voters; and convince Latino youth that they can affect the future of the country.
Sonoma State University professor Francisco Vazquez said despite a large gap between the overall Latino population and the number who actually vote, Latinos still can play a crucial role as a swing bloc. He pointed out that the Latino vote was crucial to President Bush's re-election campaign in 2004.
There is some evidence of Latinos making an impact as a voting bloc.
One recent study shows that last year, at a time when immigration was an intense focus of national debate, the Republican Party lost many of its Latino voters.
In 2006, 49 percent of Latino registered voters identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party, while 28 percent said they favored the Republican Party, according to a Pew Hispanic Center study of Latino voter trends.
The study found the Democratic Party's 21 percent advantage in 2006 grew to 34 percent last year.
Ira Mehlman, a spokesman for the Federation of Americans for Immigration Reform, a nonprofit organization that advocates for stricter immigration policies, rejected the notion that Latinos are fleeing the Republican Party because of tough stances on illegal immigration.
"It could be economic policies that have been enacted under Republicans that put pressure on working people in the United States," he said. "Let's face it, in the last election, a lot of people of all racial and ethnic groups deserted the Republican Party."
Raquel Lepe Campos, owner of Super Latino Market on Sebastopol Road in Santa Rosa, and her daughter Monica Rodriguez said immigration and the economy were the most important issues for them in the coming election.
But Friday they said they've yet to decide whether they will vote for Obama or Clinton.
"I don't dislike Clinton. I think it would be cool to have a woman president," Rodriguez said. "But I don't like that she backed away from the driver's license issue."
You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat
.com.
U.S. citizenship gave Alejandra Warden the right to vote in 2002, but the confidence to become a foot soldier in a presidential campaign would not come until she heard Barack Obama speak of change.
ADVERTISEMENT
"I felt that Obama was speaking to my heart and telling me you have the right to express your voice," said Warden, who came to the United States in 1993 two years after marrying a U.S. citizen in her native Argentina.
That's the message she's trying to convey to Latinos registered to vote, a growing constituency that some experts say could help determine the outcome of this year's presidential race.
An estimated 2.6 million Latinos are expected to vote Tuesday in California's primaries, an increase of more than 500,000 since the 2004 presidential election, according to the Los Angeles-based Tom?s Rivera Policy Institute, a research unit of the University of Southern California School of Policy, Planning and Development.
Nationally, the number of Latino voters who will go to the polls in November could increase by 1.7 million voters, a jump of 23 percent from the 7.6 million Latinos who voted in 2004, according to the policy institute.
The Pew Hispanic Center, a non-partisan research center in Washington, puts the increase at a more conservative 1 million new Latino voters, a 13 percent increase from 2004.
Recent polls show Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., stands to receive most Latino votes in California on Tuesday. The statewide Rasmussen Reports poll Friday showed Clinton and Sen. Obama, D-Ill., in a statistical tie among all voters, but Clinton polled 27 percentage points ahead of Obama among Latino voters.
Alethea Candia, a 33-year-old Latina who attends Santa Rosa Junior College, cast an absentee vote for Clinton two weeks ago, "for one, because she's a woman."
Candia said she also supports Clinton because she "stayed with her husband even when he was not being faithful and she's a strong congresswoman."
Candia said large numbers of Latinos support Clinton because she's more familiar to them.
"I didn't hear a lot about Obama before they started to go out and campaign," she said. "There's nothing wrong with him. I just don't know him. I don't know his values. I haven't seen a lot of research on him. I'm just more familiar with Hillary."
But Obama appears to be gathering support from some Latinos because of his support for granting driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Obama has criticized Clinton for backing away from such a proposal in New York state.
Candia said the Latino vote is likely to become a stronger constituency in future elections.
National estimates of the number of Latino voter trends use as a baseline survey data from the U.S. Census. In Sonoma County, determining local voting trends among Latinos is difficult because the county Registrar of Voters Office does not require voters to specify race or ethnicity.
Even so, local elections officials expect national trends to apply on the North Coast.
"It's obvious to all of us in Sonoma County that the Latino community is a growing community," said County Clerk Janice Atkinson, who heads the office. "I think it's going to be a very important bloc of votes."
Local Latino leaders are hoping to tap into this growing bloc to increase Latino representation, both nationally and in local offices.
A new group, the Coalition for Latino Civic Engagement, which includes local scholars, business leaders and politicos, is trying to organize two voter registration drives in March.
It's not the first time Latino leaders have tried to get the so-called "sleeping giant" into the voting booth. During the pro-immigration rallies in 2006 that drew thousands of Latinos into the streets of Santa Rosa, the rallying cry was: "Today we march, tomorrow we vote."
But in the months that followed, local registration efforts fizzled, in part because a significant number of Latinos in Sonoma County are either too young to vote or cannot vote because they are not U.S. citizens. Many are in the country illegally, said Rene Meza, a Latino community leader.
"A lot of folks have been trying to do this for years. There have been some successes and some setbacks," said Meza, one of the principal organizers of the Cinco de Mayo Festival in Santa Rosa's Roseland neighborhood.
Meza, who is part of the Coalition for Latino Civic Engagement, said the group's efforts will target the November election and beyond.
He said the message is three-pronged: Ensure those who register to vote actually vote; register new voters; and convince Latino youth that they can affect the future of the country.
Sonoma State University professor Francisco Vazquez said despite a large gap between the overall Latino population and the number who actually vote, Latinos still can play a crucial role as a swing bloc. He pointed out that the Latino vote was crucial to President Bush's re-election campaign in 2004.
There is some evidence of Latinos making an impact as a voting bloc.
One recent study shows that last year, at a time when immigration was an intense focus of national debate, the Republican Party lost many of its Latino voters.
In 2006, 49 percent of Latino registered voters identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party, while 28 percent said they favored the Republican Party, according to a Pew Hispanic Center study of Latino voter trends.
The study found the Democratic Party's 21 percent advantage in 2006 grew to 34 percent last year.
Ira Mehlman, a spokesman for the Federation of Americans for Immigration Reform, a nonprofit organization that advocates for stricter immigration policies, rejected the notion that Latinos are fleeing the Republican Party because of tough stances on illegal immigration.
"It could be economic policies that have been enacted under Republicans that put pressure on working people in the United States," he said. "Let's face it, in the last election, a lot of people of all racial and ethnic groups deserted the Republican Party."
Raquel Lepe Campos, owner of Super Latino Market on Sebastopol Road in Santa Rosa, and her daughter Monica Rodriguez said immigration and the economy were the most important issues for them in the coming election.
But Friday they said they've yet to decide whether they will vote for Obama or Clinton.
"I don't dislike Clinton. I think it would be cool to have a woman president," Rodriguez said. "But I don't like that she backed away from the driver's license issue."
You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat
.com.
