WYO sheep rules

chewyman55 · Feb 7, 2009

Ok I have always been under the assumption that in wyomings sheep pref point system, the more points you have, the better chance you have of drawing. Am I wrong? With some states that is how it works...the more points you have, the more chances you get at the RANDOM draw tags. Now I look at it and I think that with 12 pts, I have the same odds as a person with 1 pt. It's only with MAX points that your odds even jump. Correct? Or am I still missing the boat on this one? For instance, in Unit 5 a resident has a .8% shot at one of the random tags. Those odds DO NOT increase for me until I hit the MAX points. For some reason I was feeling good with each additional year as if it were making a difference! No wonder guys loose hope with this.

HornedToad · Feb 8, 2009

Yes, IMO, you are "missing the boat".

Under a Bonus Point system (e.g. AZ, CO, MT, NV, UT) in which an applicant gains additional draw chances based on the number of previous unsuccessful years in the draw, draw odds may improve each year, but they will still be "long shot" odds (rarely rising above 5%), and always will be, no matter how many bonus points are accumulated.

In a Preference Point (e.g. WY) an applicant can be assured that his draw odds will, eventually, increase to 100%. If you start early enough, and are able to hang in long enough, you will draw a sheep permit. Bonus point systems do not offer that certainty.

So why "lose hope"? If you have 12 points in WY, two points off the MAX of 14 going into the 2009 draw (or, MAX-2), you could probably be assured of drawing a WY sheep tag this year, though in one of the less popular units. If you are determined to hold out for one of the most popular units, like Unit 5, you should be able to draw a tag within the next 6 to 8 years. That's not too bad.

According to my model (which some believe is too optimistic because it assumes a relatively high rate of annual attrition) holders of MAX-2 points will draw sheep tags from 2009 through 2017, with the median draw occuring in 2015. There currently are 180 non-residents with 12 (or MAX-2) points. My model assumes that 70 of these eventually will drop out (a cumulative 39% attrition rate), while 110 will draw permits between 2009 and 2017. Those who drop out (you could be among them) will do so for a variety of reasons, including infirmity or death, but for some it will be simply because of a loss of interest. They may have already taken a bighorn in another state, or they may have grown weary of giving WY the $100 every year to stay in the preference points race. Whatever.

With WY's preference point system, if the rules don't change (a big assumption), you will draw a bighorn tag... eventually. No other state offers that certainty. If I were you, I'd hang on.

Good luck,

Horned Toad

chewyman55 · Feb 8, 2009

You are a good man Horned Toad. Hope has been restored. Thank you for that explination. I really hadn't stop to realize the difference in the BONUS system and the PREFERENCE system. I guess one thing is certain...by the time a guy draws a sheep tag, he will be WELL educated on the ins and outs. That was a great breakdown. Thanks!

Wyo · Feb 8, 2009

I wish Wyoming would give bonus points as well as preference points. Kind of similar to what Utah does. It would be nice if each year you were in the random draw you had a little better chance than the people below you. I'm sitting on 12 points as a resident for moose and sheep, but I don't expect a sheep tag for probably 10-15 years, just wish I had better odds than people putting in for the first time. Oh well I guess, fortunatly I am young enough that in 10-15 years I still won't be too old! Hopefully it won't take 15-25 years though!