Yes, IMO, you are "missing the boat".
Under a Bonus Point system (e.g. AZ, CO, MT, NV, UT) in which an applicant gains additional draw chances based on the number of previous unsuccessful years in the draw, draw odds may improve each year, but they will still be "long shot" odds (rarely rising above 5%), and always will be, no matter how many bonus points are accumulated.
In a Preference Point (e.g. WY) an applicant can be assured that his draw odds will, eventually, increase to 100%. If you start early enough, and are able to hang in long enough, you will draw a sheep permit. Bonus point systems do not offer that certainty.
So why "lose hope"? If you have 12 points in WY, two points off the MAX of 14 going into the 2009 draw (or, MAX-2), you could probably be assured of drawing a WY sheep tag this year, though in one of the less popular units. If you are determined to hold out for one of the most popular units, like Unit 5, you should be able to draw a tag within the next 6 to 8 years. That's not too bad.
According to my model (which some believe is too optimistic because it assumes a relatively high rate of annual attrition) holders of MAX-2 points will draw sheep tags from 2009 through 2017, with the median draw occuring in 2015. There currently are 180 non-residents with 12 (or MAX-2) points. My model assumes that 70 of these eventually will drop out (a cumulative 39% attrition rate), while 110 will draw permits between 2009 and 2017. Those who drop out (you could be among them) will do so for a variety of reasons, including infirmity or death, but for some it will be simply because of a loss of interest. They may have already taken a bighorn in another state, or they may have grown weary of giving WY the $100 every year to stay in the preference points race. Whatever.
With WY's preference point system, if the rules don't change (a big assumption), you will draw a bighorn tag... eventually. No other state offers that certainty. If I were you, I'd hang on.
Good luck,
Horned Toad
