LAST EDITED ON May-04-09 AT 06:09PM (MST)[p]
Unsuccessful again with 13 NR sheep points.
Some analysis... there were 58 NR sheep permits, with 10 going in the Random Draw and 48 in the Preference Point Draw.
There is no way to know from the available information how the 10 Random Draw permits were distributed among the various point classes, though it is likely that most of these permits went to "low point" applicants, since they constitute the large majority of total applicants.
Of the 48 Preference Point permits, the distribution among the point classes were:
PP.....Permits.....%
14....... 7.......15%
13.......35.......73%
12....... 5.......10%
10....... 1....... 2%
.........48......100%
Only 15% of the PP permits were drawn by MAX PT holders with 14 points. Fully 73% were drawn by holders of MAX-1 PTs, or 13 points. This demonstrates the falicy of expecting that all of one class must "clear out", or go to zero, before the next class begins to draw. There will be substantial overlap.
Going into the 2009 Draw, there were 55 possible MAX PT applicants. Of these, only 13, or 24%, entered the draw, capturing 7 of the 48 available permits. That means that 32 MAX PT holders chose to bypass the 2009 draw. It will not be possible to determine how many of these will choose to apply for the "preference point only" option until after the data on that process is delivered later this year.
In any event, with the permits drawn in 2009, the number of MAX PT holders has dropped from 55 to a maximum of 48, and the number of MAX-1 PT holders has dropped from 223 to 188.
Good luck to those who drew!
HT