C
camuleycrazy
Guest
Luckily I didn't draw with 14 points as I already drew Colorado.
Looks like the draw odds went down from last year in the best units for non wilderness hunting...not up. Most of the wilderness units were a sure bet for a 14 point nonresident...The guides in the wilderness rule will make the wait longer for those nonresidents wanting to hunt without hiring an outfitter. I was thinking for sure 3 in years going in this year before seeing the stats, not so sure anymore if most of the top and -1 pool nonresidents are thinking DIY...OK, maybe for sure in 6...I'll keep trying
HornedToad
Active Member
- Messages
- 430
Some observations on the 2010 WY non-res sheep draw:
- A total of 64 non-res permits were issued, 54 through the Preference Point (PP) draw and 10 through the Random draw. This is an increase over prior years.
- Of the 54 PP permits, the distribution among the PP-classes was:
PP class / permits
15 / 9
14 / 34
13 / 8
<13 / 3
- There were 45 eligible applicants with the maximum of 15 PP going into the draw. Of these, only 15 applied, with 9 drawing permits. That means that 30 chose not to apply. The PP-Only application is coming up this summer. When the results of that process are released (around November) it will be possible to determine how many of these 30 remain in the draw for 2011.
- There were 7045 eligible applicants with 1 or more PP going into the draw. The total number of applicants was 1925, which included new applicants for 2010. Of these 1925, a total of 1732 contested for the 10 Randow draw permits (some applicants applied in units that did not offer a Random draw permit) for a success percentage of 0.58%. Results of the PP-Only application will reveal how many of the 7045 remain in the draw for 2011.
HT
- A total of 64 non-res permits were issued, 54 through the Preference Point (PP) draw and 10 through the Random draw. This is an increase over prior years.
- Of the 54 PP permits, the distribution among the PP-classes was:
PP class / permits
15 / 9
14 / 34
13 / 8
<13 / 3
- There were 45 eligible applicants with the maximum of 15 PP going into the draw. Of these, only 15 applied, with 9 drawing permits. That means that 30 chose not to apply. The PP-Only application is coming up this summer. When the results of that process are released (around November) it will be possible to determine how many of these 30 remain in the draw for 2011.
- There were 7045 eligible applicants with 1 or more PP going into the draw. The total number of applicants was 1925, which included new applicants for 2010. Of these 1925, a total of 1732 contested for the 10 Randow draw permits (some applicants applied in units that did not offer a Random draw permit) for a success percentage of 0.58%. Results of the PP-Only application will reveal how many of the 7045 remain in the draw for 2011.
HT
K
kevinp
Guest
LAST EDITED ON May-05-10 AT 08:36AM (MST)[p]I've always enjoyed keeping myself entertained through statistical analysis and by speculating what the next year draw odds will most likely be concerning the Wyoming Sheep draw..
However, after applying since 1985, ( I missed the 1st year Wyoming gave preference points) I went into this year with 14 non-resident points and cashed in on an area 2 tag.
I can honestly say that I'm releived that I no longer will need to follow or be concerned with these statistics...but I sure wish everyone else luck in drawing their tag and fulling their dream.
Thanks Hornedtoad for taking the time to put the data together and sharing your observations with everyone concerned.
Best of luck to everyone in the furture Draws!
However, after applying since 1985, ( I missed the 1st year Wyoming gave preference points) I went into this year with 14 non-resident points and cashed in on an area 2 tag.
I can honestly say that I'm releived that I no longer will need to follow or be concerned with these statistics...but I sure wish everyone else luck in drawing their tag and fulling their dream.
Thanks Hornedtoad for taking the time to put the data together and sharing your observations with everyone concerned.
Best of luck to everyone in the furture Draws!
littlebighorn
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 5,409
LAST EDITED ON May-05-10 AT 08:58AM (MST)[p]Kevin,
So am I reading your post right? Did you draw an area 2 tag? If so CONGRATULATIONS! That means you are headed towards your Full Curl!(I can't use that other term because Dennis might sue me)
Anyway if it is true, I am thrilled for you. Way to go! Email me if this is true.
And if I read your post wrong, then ignore me.
And HT, I was pulling for you man. I thought that this was your year. Maybe next.
So am I reading your post right? Did you draw an area 2 tag? If so CONGRATULATIONS! That means you are headed towards your Full Curl!(I can't use that other term because Dennis might sue me)
Anyway if it is true, I am thrilled for you. Way to go! Email me if this is true.
And if I read your post wrong, then ignore me.
And HT, I was pulling for you man. I thought that this was your year. Maybe next.
K
kevinp
Guest
Thanks littlebighorn...you are correct! I'll send you a PM.
C
camuleycrazy
Guest
Hi Kevin, Good luck on your hunt! I assume you will be using a guide if you are not a Wy. resident. I will be interested to see how it goes as I could do the same thing next year.
Lee
Lee
Cozmo8
Active Member
- Messages
- 641
It looks like approx 2,000 applicants per year are trying to get a Wy sheep tag. Pretty consistent the last three years.
2007 2468
2008 2127
2009 1911
2010 1925
As stated above by HT only 15 out of 45 with 15 points applied (9 drew). 67 out of 181 with 14 points applied (34 drew).
Going into the 2011 draw here is how the pools stack up before the PP purchase at the end of the year:
Max (16) 36
15 147
14 157
13 172
12 176
2007 2468
2008 2127
2009 1911
2010 1925
As stated above by HT only 15 out of 45 with 15 points applied (9 drew). 67 out of 181 with 14 points applied (34 drew).
Going into the 2011 draw here is how the pools stack up before the PP purchase at the end of the year:
Max (16) 36
15 147
14 157
13 172
12 176
Only 1 in 3 or so top or -1 applicants trying to draw is nuts! They could change the system, there could be a dieoff, they could raise the price and it costs $100 per year just to stay in. Get it while the gettin's good if you are in the postiion to get! I know some may be in bad circumstances to pay that kind of $$$ for a tag, but 2/3? I feel you shouldn't be allowed to do points only for more than two consecutive years, same as losing points for draw inactivity! S--- or get off the pot...
HornedToad
Active Member
- Messages
- 430
There were probably more than 67 applicants with 14 PP who applied in 2010. For the two units in which Max-point holders (15 PP) drew all the permits, Units 12 and 19, there is no breakout of the 14 PP applicants. Presumably, some 14 PP holders applied in those units.
But Elmer... "S--- or get off the pot". You need to chill. So long as someone is drawing permits, they're clearing out a bit of space in line ahead of you. And no way is Wyoming giving up its $100 per year gravy train.
Congratulations to all who drew.
HT
But Elmer... "S--- or get off the pot". You need to chill. So long as someone is drawing permits, they're clearing out a bit of space in line ahead of you. And no way is Wyoming giving up its $100 per year gravy train.
Congratulations to all who drew.
HT
I agreee, congratulations to those who drew.
I'm in a good position in the WY sheep draw, and a few others, and applaud anyone who makes best use of the system in place. But, I don't feel preference systems are fair for any hunts that don't turnover in a reasonable period, say like 10 years. That, the nonresident wilderness deal, and the $100 per year gouge are really what I might have come off a bit peeved at...I apologize. On the other hand, WY does pretty much blow all the other states out of the water with total sheep tags and percentage of tags available to nonresidents...If nothing changes, it's the only state where it's reasonable to expect a tag as a nonresident in your lifetime if nothing changes and you aren't too old starting.
I'm in a good position in the WY sheep draw, and a few others, and applaud anyone who makes best use of the system in place. But, I don't feel preference systems are fair for any hunts that don't turnover in a reasonable period, say like 10 years. That, the nonresident wilderness deal, and the $100 per year gouge are really what I might have come off a bit peeved at...I apologize. On the other hand, WY does pretty much blow all the other states out of the water with total sheep tags and percentage of tags available to nonresidents...If nothing changes, it's the only state where it's reasonable to expect a tag as a nonresident in your lifetime if nothing changes and you aren't too old starting.
K
kevinp
Guest
Thanks Camuleycrazy!
Your correct, I will be using a guide. I'll start hunting on or around Oct 10..I will keep you posted on the results...
Best of luck in the 2011 draw!
Kevin
Your correct, I will be using a guide. I'll start hunting on or around Oct 10..I will keep you posted on the results...
Best of luck in the 2011 draw!
Kevin
HornedToad
Active Member
- Messages
- 430
LAST EDITED ON May-06-10 AT 08:35AM (MST)[p]Kevin - Congratulations on your permit. I hope you get a nice ram. I had 14 PP going into this year's draw, and almost applied for Unit 2, just to draw a permit and go sheep hunting again before I got any older. I since have had a health issue come up that probably would have kept me from climbing hills this year, so it is lucky that I didn't get drawn. But I suppose this points out the risk of waiting too long to draw. As has been pointed out elsewhere, one is likely to run out of health before running out of money.
Cozmo - Thanks for the info on the total number of non-res applicants. It is interesting that the number ticked-up in 2010. I still believe we will see a significant drop-off in the number of PP applicants following the PP-Only draw. Wyoming does not drop an applicant from its rolls until two years of applications are missed. Since the full force of the recent economic downturn only took hold late in 2008 (i.e. significant loss of employment), which occured after the 2008 WY draw, this will be the first time we will see the impact of those who dropped out of the PP draw in 2009.
HT
Cozmo - Thanks for the info on the total number of non-res applicants. It is interesting that the number ticked-up in 2010. I still believe we will see a significant drop-off in the number of PP applicants following the PP-Only draw. Wyoming does not drop an applicant from its rolls until two years of applications are missed. Since the full force of the recent economic downturn only took hold late in 2008 (i.e. significant loss of employment), which occured after the 2008 WY draw, this will be the first time we will see the impact of those who dropped out of the PP draw in 2009.
HT
Cozmo8
Active Member
- Messages
- 641
Again I hope you are correct HT. I agree with an above post why wait if you are not in the max pool. We saw major disease in 4 states this year. Anything can happen. I guess I am a "bird in hand is better than two in the bush" kind of guy. It will be interesting when the PP purchase info comes out.
