WY sheep point question

[searcher]

Someone help me with the math please. I have 2 WY sheep preference points but didn't buy one last year when they went up to $100. I am considering whether or not to buy one this year but am considering whether I can realistically expect to ever draw. I just turned 50 but try to stay in shape so I am thinking I have maybe 15 years to draw and still be in reasonable shape to go sheep hunting. It is my understanding that if I don't buy a point this year, I loose the 2 I have accumulated. My reading of the point information posted on the WY Game and Fish website makes it look like it takes at least 10 minimum and I expect that the number needed to draw will increase over the next 10 years. The money isn't really the issue but if in a practical sense I can expect to never draw, I would rather put $1500 in a life membership in MDF or RMEF than just donate the money to WY Game and Fish. I expect to spend much more than that on non-resident deer and antelope licenses over the next few years, God willing.

Tim

 

[littlebighorn]

Tim,
It took me 10 years to draw a Wyoming Sheep but I got in on the front end of the point system. That means if you wait for the max point draw (75% of the permits) you may have to wait even longer than 15 years.
Having said that, I got a call from a guy after my hunt who had just drawn his second Wyoming sheep tag in 7 years out of the 25% pool. So getting a tag is a possibility if you pay the money for the permit.
My advice is to evaluate how bad you want a Bighorn. If it is a life long dream, like mine was, keep putting in.(especially if the money isn't an issue.) If not, then dedicate the cash to another worthy cause!

 

[diamondj]

That is correct if you do not buy a point this year the 2 you do have will be rejected. I agree with littlebighorn it really has to do with if you really want to sheep hunt. I have been sheep hunting and I will apply until I die.

 

[DonVathome]

FYI I have 8 points now and I expect to draw in 12-15 years, and this is based on typical drop out rates and # of tags, with 2 points you will not hit the top for a long time, I am sure way over 20 years, There are about 5,000 guys ahead of you with only about 60 NR sheep tags, so you have a long time until you hit the top, you can go for a random tag - odds are about 100:1 or much worse. Even when you do hit the top there will be 1,000 guys there with you!

 

[YukonDall]

SAVE YOUR $$$, & THE HEART ACHE......BOOK A DALL HUNT.--YD.

 

[BuzzH]

I say apply for the random draw and get your points as well. The way the various states change drawing systems I'd stay in even without max points. Who knows, maybe some day WY will turn into a "bonus" point state instead of a true preference.

Also, nobody has better odds than you do of drawing in the random draw. My theory is just keep applying and eventually you'll hit the 1:100 odds.

I know this for sure...if you dont apply you definitely wont get a tag.

My Dad faithfully applied in Montana for years and years...finally paid off a couple years ago...despite 1:120 draw odds.

 

[roger]

Does more points increase your odds in the randon draw? I guess another way of asking the same quesion...Once the preference draw is over are remaining points per applicant treated like bonus points?

Roger

 

[nripepi]

Nope. I wish this were the case, but they don't. Everyone is treated exactly the same in the 25% random draw.

My suggestion would be to save the $100 per year and just apply in the random draw. It seems like it would be 20-30 years until you would draw, I guess we'll know more in the next few years as we see how many drop out...

Good luck.

Nino

 

[Nilguhm]

I am in the same position as you are. I am 50 and have three points. I have been pondering the same question. I think all we can hope for is to get selected in the 25% pool. However, I am not sure there is one for sheep. I am a little confused. If there is 25% pool, I would like to know how many tags are in it for nonresidents. My review of the Wyoming statistics seemed to indicate that there is no 25% pool for nonresidents, but someone please correct me if I am wrong.
Thanks.

 

[ElmerFudd]

Eight points (seven going into this year) is the big pool, the start of the $7 point. Anything less than that is not going to help a middle aged person draw before getting too old, unless they change the point system. But systems can and do change, so who knows? If you missed the random draw, save your money and apply for a random draw tag next year.

Yes, there is a 25% random pool for nonresidents, but it really is less than that. Nonresidents get 25% of the total tags in a unit. 25% of those can go to random draw. So you need 4 total sheep tags in a hunt for a nonresident tag to be issued. You need 16 total sheep tags in a unit for a random draw nonresident tag to be issued. So, a lot of sheep hunts have no random draw nonresident tags. Just make sure you apply for hunts with at least that many tags if you want a shot at a random draw tag.

 

[BuzzH]

Someone asked about the random draw.

In 2007 there were tags available in units 1,2,3,4,5 and 8. Draw odds ranged from a 1:29 to 1:345.

Total of 11 available tags.

 

[searcher]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I guess I have until the end of August to make up my mind.

Tim

 

[WYhunter]

I am a resident and have 1 point short of the maximum points. I am 52 and in doing the math and talking to the Game & Fish folks it appears it could still take me another 5 years to get a permit in a good sheep area. At the age of 50 and with 2 points I believe you are just wasting money to continue buying preference points but should continue in the open draw and hope you get lucky. Wyoming is not talking about changing their system (which I think they should as bonus systems seem alot more fair than perference systems). I am not sure you could get a tag even 20 years from now. My son is 17 and has 5 points and the local G&F guy told him not to expect a license for 15 to 20 years unless he gets lucky in the open draw.
WYHunter

 

[Triple_BB]

>I am a resident and have
>1 point short of the
>maximum points. I am
>52 and in doing the
>math and talking to the
>Game & Fish folks it
>appears it could still take
>me another 5 years to
>get a permit in a
>good sheep area.

If you're one point short of max, I'd think it could still take you another 15 - 25 years if you're talking about a good area. It could be another 5 - 10 years just to get through all the guys with max points. How many guys are out there with one point less. Theoretically you could be the last guy to draw in your group of points. How long will it take to work through that group of points holders?

 

[WYhunter]

I agree with your numbers. For example the area I have been putting in for on a typical year still has about 7.5 years worth of folks with max points ahead of me. There are a couple of good areas that have only about 5 years worth of folks ahead of me. So it appears I have at least 5 years before I have any real chance at all and then there are still alot of folks with points equal to mine that I will be competing with (according to the WGF there are 1157 folks who have as many points as me). That is why I think anybody who is 50 and has only 2 points is wasting money to buy any preference points. It is also why I am not in favor of pure preference points systems like WY has. According to WGF numbers it is going to take about another 14 years to go through just the group of folks like me who starting getting preference points within the first two years they started the system!!
WYHunter

 

[ram100]

The Wyo website lists preference point totals by the numbers. I tried to find it again but couldn't -does anyone have a link? I know at least one of the areas you could draw with one less than max as a resident. I think area 2 and area 1 possibly this year. I am down 3 and 37 so I still have a long wait.

 

[kilbuc]

Correct me if I'm wrong, or maybe slitting hairs, but Wy does not have a pure preference system. They allott 25% of the tags to a random draw.

from the "Heartland of Wyoming"

 

[WYhunter]

You are right. WY does allocate 25% to the random draw which in 2007 meant for us residents that there were 40 permits and 4745 applicants or a less than 1% chance. But at least a chance so therefor a guy can give it a try. But nonresidents with little or no points are probably wasting money to buy the preference point but should consider the random draw still. Going into the 2007 draw there were 9018 resident hunters and 10,248 nonresident with preference points going after the 169 licenses allocated to the preference draw. Of the 9018 residents with points only 4745 put in for the draw the others apparently just bought points. The numbers of persons by each # points category that I have, come from a handout I got from a WGF sheep biologist. I don't think it is on there website.

This year unit 2 had only 12 people with max points put in for the 14 licenses allocated to the preference draw so there were 2 licenses that went to the 54 people who put in for that unit and had 1 point less than max. Most max point people tried for other units so it gives us less than max folks a little chance.
Who knows what folks will do in future years however.

 

[Cozmo8]

They do publish the number of applicants in each point pool. They are not going to update it for 2007 until December. It appears that they are waiting until the Bonus Point buying period is over in September.

 

[kilbuc]

WYhunter....your post is a good summary of odds/draw status for those with less than max points. A good place to get the figures is at the WYFNAWS fundraiser that occurrs the 1st part of June every year. Kevin has all the draw odds data availabe on handout sheets. Next June the fundraiser is in Cody.

from the "Heartland of Wyoming"

 

[RamDreamer]

The Wyoming FNAWS fundraiser is actually going to be in Lander next year. There was a conflict with another very large group that had a pre-existing reservation for a convention in Cody during the same time frame.

The actual date of the event will be Saturday, June 7th, 2008.