When to jump back in?

I'm no expert, with that said, I don't know if we have bottomed out.
I pulled 1/2 my 401k and went to the side line 3 weeks ago, I have no idea why I did it,other than I had a feeling that a correction was coming and God Almighty guided my truck into my brokers office that day to visit with my broker that I haven't talked to in probably 5 yrs.
Personally I have been buying this week on the dips with set goals before I purchase. I am getting close to retirement age and this correction could not have come at a worse time.
I am buying things that make sense to me, during this virus scare even after this virus goes away Im thinking of what people will be using, I-phones was my pick, Apple, and AT&T. I put in a low price for a buy and bought for that pre determined price. I may take it in the arse if I'm wrong,but dang it, at my age I can't afford to wait out another cycle and give up my earnings from a life time of work !!
Let's let our economy do its thing and re visit this a year or two from now, ....thanks
 
Thanks Guardrail. This is bad timing for someone about to retire. About a month ago I almost got out but didn't. I figured a correction was coming, but this is weird. The coming weeks will be interesting to watch.
 
"How did you pull 1/2 your 401k without 30% penalties? How old are you?
asking for a friend..."
I'm 63,
I did not remove 1/2 of my 401 k , I went to the sideline with it .its still in the brokerage,earning a return but it's very minute.
 
I remember when I had my 401K. We had several different options. It was still in the 401K but you could go aggressive or conservative, or a combination.
 
If you think about this in terms of the business cycle, you have pretty much already lost one fiscal quarter of the 2020 results. There will certainly be impacts in Q2 as well, and people are scrambling to revise their 2020 projections. What nobody knows is how severely Q2 and the year-end results will be impacted. I'm guessing the professionals will be watching the Q1 results in about a month nervously. Maybe calming down a bit after that?

Winners and losers are still being sorted out, and evenually things will return to "normal" with the exception of slightly decreased demand because of population adjustments. And interest rates will eventually have to start rising so who knows how big those bumps are.

Pretty soon we are going to start hearing how this event effects the election outcome. That could start a trend worth watching.

Anyway, try to enjoy the ride. These once in a lifetime events that change the course of mankind are always fun.:oops:
 
I’m still fully invested. I wish I could time it all, but I can’t. I own company’s and some industries I believe will succeed over the next 10 years.
I thought about trimming back last month, but I’ve probably thought about the same thing every month for the past 3 years. It’s just too hard to know. I sold a chunk of Apple last year at 240, thinking it was at a real high. It continued up like crazy. Looking back, I guess I should’ve held it. Owned too much though. Did the same with some Google.
The market is down 20% right now from highs, I’m down 18.5% from high. My goal right now is to continue to beat the market.
I do wish I had more cash to put to work, cause there are stocks I think look pretty good now and maybe better over the next couple months.
I think with the efforts being made, we’re going to get this virus under control and come summer things will get back to a normal for the most part.
I think the virus will hurt the economy for a year or so though.
As for the presidential race, if it’s Bernie, things could be tough, but I think it’ll be Biden in the race and I don’t think that’ll effect the market much at all.
Hopefully I don’t need much, or any, of the money for a while and hopefully 7 years from now my account balance is doubled from today.
Good luck to the rest of you.
 
I agree Founder and Bluehair, we have had a heck of a ride up and now the wheel is turning in its cycle, stay the coarse !
One more question I have and don't quite understand, if interest rates are at a all time low I think the ten yr yield is below 1.00%, how will the banks make it, I mean the oil and gas industry just saw there revenue cut drastically and the weak players will fall out and be bought up or go under , they will not have a gov bailout, will we the consumer have loans of record setting low rates? If you had big bawls could you get a low rate loan put it in the market and try to make a 12-18% return , pay back the bank there 2 % and cut a fat hog ? Just thinking out loud here ....
 
I’ve considered remortgaging my house to access a couple hundred thousand. My current rate is at 2.65, so if a 10 or 15 year loan rate got below that I might consider. I’m confident that over time I can beat 2.65 in the stock market.
I used to think having the house paid off was the goal, but under certain circumstances the money tied up in the house can be better invested. The biggest risk is having a 10-15 year recession.
I doubt I’d remortgage though.
 
I'm a semi-old retired guy who didn't play a bond trader or stock broker in real life so what do I know.

That said, I don't recall another zero rate environment so I don't know what's next. Common sense tells me that the federal reserve just lost its biggest hammer. Now we will once again monetize debt by buying corporate paper, and only the 1%ers will have a clue what's happening.

Someday we will have to pay the piper.
 
I still think home ownership is one key to financial security. No matter what happens, I have a place to camp. I took out a mortgage back in 1975 for 9.25%. A 25 year loan. It's been free and clear for many years. Taxes are about $800/year. It sure makes it a lot easier to live on Social Security.
 
Eel... How much $$ does Social Security send you..? Sure, that is what we term a Private matter we tell NO ONE. Yet, I feel, in 100 years we will all be Dust, What's the harm, actually, sharing such a number among Friends gonna Hurt ... ??? Yes, Nothing. In General, WE HUMANS have a fear to share infrmation. I remember after 9/11 and so many endless events, various Federal, State. Local agencies never SHARED their information and it hurt everyone. Then came announcements that ALL Agencies "WILL" Share. It never happened.

So Eel, If you never give an answer, I/we fully understand. Plus, it is rude that I even asked. I Apologize.

{We will never tell IRS how much you make from selling the Sea Food you Catch :) }

Jagerdad :)
 
Hey JAG!

It Ain't the Seafood!

It's Them Semi-Loads of Christmas Trees He Un-Loads & Sells every Christmas!

Them Elderly Ladies Think He's HOT & You oughta Hear about these TIPS Eel Garners!:D:D:D
 
I have to agree with eel. If all you have to deal with is property tax that's a huge plus if you are retired. Until the powers to be raise it to the point you can't pay it.
I'm lucky so far I don't have to take money out of my investments so I guess we will how bad it is when I do.

Sorry when you guys start talking 6 figure puts you are way out of my league.
 
Guardrail said:
I agree Founder and Bluehair, we have had a heck of a ride up and now the wheel is turning in its cycle, stay the coarse !
One more question I have and don't quite understand, if interest rates are at a all time low I think the ten yr yield is below 1.00%, how will the banks make it, I mean the oil and gas industry just saw there revenue cut drastically and the weak players will fall out and be bought up or go under , they will not have a gov bailout, will we the consumer have loans of record setting low rates? If you had big bawls could you get a low rate loan put it in the market and try to make a 12-18% return , pay back the bank there 2 % and cut a fat hog ? Just thinking out loud here ....
Click to expand...
Hey Guardrail, I kind of did the same thing as you. I moved all my 401K stuff from aggressive to secure not long before all this broke loose (lucky timing). My mistake was trying to time the bottom, unfortunately I don't think I did a good job with that, but fortunately I'm a little more time away from retirement than you. I know it's sure hard to make yourself buy when everything is tanking, but hopefully it pays off in the end. Also, I agree with what Bluehair said about the federal reserve.
 
I took half of my 401k (I'm 42 years old) and moved it to money markets back in September of 2016 as it was diving down from 19k points to about 16k points. Since then I watched it skyrocket to where it was few weeks ago. Biggest regret of my investment career actually. SO, I am slowly putting that money back in now and if it gets to 18k points I am going to cut that small loss and jump in 100% at that point.
 
MT_55 said:
I took half of my 401k (I'm 42 years old) and moved it to money markets back in September of 2016 as it was diving down from 19k points to about 16k points. Since then I watched it skyrocket to where it was few weeks ago. Biggest regret of my investment career actually. SO, I am slowly putting that money back in now and if it gets to 18k points I am going to cut that small loss and jump in 100% at that point.
Click to expand...
Hey MT55, don't hesitate to follow your plan. I probably wouldn't even wait till 18, I'm thinking today might be a good day (but please don't hold me accountable for any bad advice. lol). Seriously, you'll probably never be able to time the bottom, but if you follow through with your plan, you could end up making amends for your last market regret. Good luck!
 
The rule of thumb is "time in the market, not timing the market". Worked ok up until a couple of weeks ago. :(
 
I hate to think it at all, but I think it's possible we see the market 20% below what it is now. Might not be for long though. This whole mess is just beginning. At best we have a month or two of economic slowdown while we try to get it under control, if control is possible. I'm thinking though that it could take much longer.
If I had cash, I'd probably have buy orders on a few stocks at prices 10-15% below what they are now.
As companies continue to report the effects of the virus on their businesses, it'll pound stocks. The likelihood of bad news is 5x that of good news for a while.
The other side of this mess is hard to see. I think it's going to take a vaccine to settle people down. On that news, I think a new bull market will begin.
I'm hoping the warm weather will help, but that likely will not eradicate the virus and it'll come back and we'll go through all this again. We need to eradicate it.
That's my opinion, but I also thought I was smart buying Boeing a short time ago at $290......it's half that now.
 
It's been the longest bull market in history up until now. I didn't really "earn" that money so I don't feel I "lost" it. If I wanted to earn some money now that I'm retired I'd buy a trailer and a couple lawn mowers and cut lawns. The local building supply store here offers me a job almost every time I go there. I could sell waterline to all the hippie chicks growing marijuana. :)
 
theox said:
So if you guys could drop some money into a few stocks what would your top 3 be?
Click to expand...
No real secret on these picks, but I think Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. People will still want their phones and services around phones, people will still need to search the internet and people will still shop at Amazon when all this settles down.
There are probably some more speculative stocks that could grow at a faster rate and give a better return, but I invest in most part in companies that I do business with in some way and that I think most people do business with regularly and that I think will still be strong companies and leaders in 5 years.
I hear people tossing Zoom around as being a winner when all this ends, but if I had to pick just 3 stocks, Zoom wouldn't be one.
 
With a June 2023 retirement date my wife is in full blown panic mode. The value of our 401k has dropped 160k in the last week. I am actually glad. We will buy for three more years now at a discount. A majority of our plan is invested in a target date fund (2025). With that fund it has headed more conservative anyway, 30% of the fund is in bonds. I feel for the people that are retiring now or just recently
 
The hard part in the near future will be the rich day traders. They will buy and cause the market to rise and then sell looking for a quick profit. That puts everything in a state of confusion. It will take awhile for it to settle down.
 
Well here comes the curve balls . Just off the phone with one of the majors.
I am a partner in a oil service company, oil has slumped, price is down ,there stocks took a dump.
Today they called asking for a 20% rate reduction on our services.
You think when oil was over $100.00 a barrel they gave us a 20% increase fu-- No they didn't !! This poor broke major is backed by Buffet and Icon, !! this chit happened back in 2017 when oil went from a hundred down 40.00 they asked for concessions we all give it up to them , then when times are good you can't find one of these bean counters to talk too. These poor bastards got strung out with some bad ass loan to the big players and us hard working small guys pay out the arse for there mistakes !! S.OB. I'm pissed right about now !
 
Guardrail said:
Well here comes the curve balls . Just off the phone with one of the majors.
I am a partner in a oil service company, oil has slumped, price is down ,there stocks took a dump.
Today they called asking for a 20% rate reduction on our services.
You think when oil was over $100.00 a barrel they gave us a 20% increase fu-- No they didn't !! This poor broke major is backed by Buffet and Icon, !! this chit happened back in 2017 when oil went from a hundred down 40.00 they asked for concessions we all give it up to them , then when times are good you can't find one of these bean counters to talk too. These poor bastards got strung out with some bad ass loan to the big players and us hard working small guys pay out the arse for there mistakes !! S.OB. I'm pissed right about now !
Click to expand...
That sucks man! Sorry
 
What really blows is do you think you can go to your suppliers and tell them you need a 20% discount on the goods and consumables you use monthly ...... You'll never get a live person to talk to.
 
After The Product Leaves the Factory/Manufacturer And then goes through 3-5 Middlemen before it gets to your Supplier Any Profit is more than Gone!
 
The oil industry sucks about stuff like that. But damn you guys make bank every once in a while. My youngest is a petro major. I suppose its better than Phillip Morris. Barely.
 
Hey Eel.....word of advice like that Scottish guy said a thousand years ago...Hold....Hold....HHHOOOOLDDDD.....
 
So my wife is still in full blown panic over our 401k. She wants to get the money out which is the worst thing we could do. She thinks in 3 years we will have less money than we do today, even after our current losses. So I made her a bet. In three years if we have less money than we do today she can plan a full vacation, anything she wants and I will go along willingly. If it is up, then I decide where we go and what we do. We will see. Could be some horseback/yoga retreat if she wins. I'll probably choose long range fishing out of San Diego or Wyoming back country elk hunt :unsure:
 
I wouldn't jump back in right now. It seems unseen forces are at work behind the scenes to cripple us. I can't believe we're falling for it.
 
Eelgrass, you nailed it in your previous post. Any up ticks we see now are people trying to time the market. Until everyone is open and back to work the market is not going to have any real gains. Most advisers are recommending sitting tight and that's what I hope to do.
 
eelgrass said:
Let's just say I believe Covid-19 is being exploited. Edit: Wash your hands but don't set your hair on fire.
Click to expand...
I'm guessing that you think it's a political thing or what??? I'm not following what you're thinking is going on.
 
If I had gotten out two weeks ago when the dow was still 28000+ I would think that 18000 would be a great time to get back in. Even if it does go a little lower.
 
eelgrass said:
I think some politics are involved, yes I do.
Click to expand...
What about the fact that every other country is reporting and doing the same that our government is? I'm just not understanding how this is some political thing aimed at doing something? What is that something? Getting Trump out of office, or???
 
desperatehills said:
If I had gotten out two weeks ago when the dow was still 28000+ I would think that 18000 would be a great time to get back in. Even if it does go a little lower.
Click to expand...
"IF" ...... I'd be happy to buy right now if I had sold at the high too. But many people won't buy at this point and will be looking back saying, wish I'd have bought when it took that big Coronavirus hit. I'm still holding everything I've got. Maybe I'll regret it, but if history holds true, I'll get it all back at some point. Right?????? Maybe.....
 
History does and will repeat. Now is a great time to buy if you have disposable money. There will be fortunes made and lost with this. Anyone who isn't waiting for the other shoe to drop is a fool. What we are seeing isn't the intended outcome of this. It's a setup for the punchline. In my opinion...
 
Founder, I think there is a global over reaction, maybe instigated by China trying to keep it under wraps and not being honest. (political) We all know China. And then China saying they won't send us the drugs. I've heard some Democrats say they'd like for the economy tank if it hurts Trump.

Why do I think it's an over reaction? Watch this video that I linked to in the political forum. It makes sense to me. I think he's 100% right, but only time will tell.

 
eelgrass said:
Founder, I think there is a global over reaction, maybe instigated by China trying to keep it under wraps and not being honest. (political) We all know China. And then China saying they won't send us the drugs. I've heard some Democrats say they'd like for the economy tank if it hurts Trump.

Why do I think it's an over reaction? Watch this video that I linked to in the political forum. It makes sense to me. I think he's 100% right, but only time will tell.

Click to expand...
It just seems like an awful lot to get at Trump. And whomever is doing it is sure a lot smarter than everyone else, cause they've got most of the country at home. They've even got Trump telling people to stay home.
Hopefully you're right and they'll jump out and say "just joking" soon and we can all get back to movies and watching our wealth increase. :)
 
There are some big dogs now. China, Russia on one side. Soros in the mix.

Yes, 2 things can be true at once.

Of course this Virus is a killer. No one debates it.

But. Look to politics. Biden was dead man walking. Then one night, few phone calls, suddenly Biden is roaring.

The Dems ain't stupid. For all their BS they knew Bernie=Depresion.

Those same big dogs that can turn an election in one night, can also help push down a market.

Trumps consistent brag was the economy.

That doesn't change mortality of a pandemic, but in every crisis is an opportunity. Or do you believe it's just shear coincidence oil tanked thanks to putin as the virus ramped? At the same time he gave himself the chance to be elected until 36'?

As to investing. At 46 I have 30 years of hard labor left. I've got time.

My in-laws and mom, are crapping bricks.
 
yes I think there's a strong political odor to this whole thing. i'm certainly not smart enough to figure it all out. my financial advisor tells me stay the course and all will be fine. he also told me that there was no reason for this to have this big of impact on the economy. I agree that there are some higher powers at work.
 
Any culture that developed gunpowder while my ancestors were running around with rocks on wooden sticks I'm watching out for..
 
I wish congress critters were required to disclose their trades BEFORE they made them. Then we could see just how bad the game is rigged. You don't suppose some of them would take out 0% loans to buy stocks of the winners they are fixing to choose?
 
When S&P closes below the low of 2018, then the big boys will sell. Around 2300. I got out three ago. Getting my ducks in a row when its time to buy. Manage your stop losses. good luck.
 
I've been investing for 40 years and this has a different feel to it. This feels more like a cultural change. I hope I'm wrong. I've been hearing how this is so much better for the planet, blah, blah, blah. and people need to slow down blah, blah, blah.

I hope I'm just being paranoid. Maybe if Trump prints enough money it will come back.
 
Bernie is negotiating for his 4th house in the Hamptons with the Dem leadership. Look for him to drop out of the race as soon as the ink is dry... very soon.
 
I say the market will bottom out at 15000 that's when I plan to invest some money. Not much but some, I bought Citi Bank at $1.00 in 09 bought a lo,t sold high made a bunch looking for another good short term investment.
Last go round I lost 60k in my investments so I moved to bonds and other investments at 8% everyone said I was crazy now you can get bonds for 1/4%. I have some money I do with stocks.
My retirement is on track for January 2023
 
Buy now if you got 5-6 years before retirement it will go back up in that time like it has in the past. IMO.
25% high risk 25% low risk 50% earning interest
 
Hey founder, someone complained about my potty mouth in another post. I will show my maturity and let you fill in the bad words.
Senator Dumped Up to $1.6 Million of Stock After Reassuring Public About Coronavirus Preparedness - ProPublica
apple.news

Senator dumped stock after reassuring public about coronavirus preparedness — ProPublica

Intelligence Chair Richard Burr’s selloff came around the time he was receiving daily briefings on the health threat.
apple.news apple.news
 
What Burr did would be called insider trading and we'd be in big trouble for doing the same. The rules don't apply to them. He should resign
 
He should resign and then be prosecuted.

I'm not getting back into stocks until this COVID-19 crisis is over. I might miss a little but, oh well.
 
Remember when Kudlow told the country to “buy the dip”? That was 20% ago!! I think that sort of advice from someone in his position is MUCH more damaging than the legislators selling stock in their portfolios.
Im surprised a bigger deal wasn’t made of that comment. Seasoned investors knew what he was doing, but many other people didn’t see it for what it was and may have threw lots of dollars in the market at a horrible time based on his comments.
 
Founder said:
Remember when Kudlow told the country to “buy the dip”? That was 20% ago!! I think that sort of advice from someone in his position is MUCH more damaging than the legislators selling stock in their portfolios.
Im surprised a bigger deal wasn’t made of that comment. Seasoned investors knew what he was doing, but many other people didn’t see it for what it was and may have threw lots of dollars in the market at a horrible time based on his comments.
Click to expand...
And Kudlow has direct ties to Trump. Congress should launch an investigation to find out how much Trump knew and when did he know it. I heard Mueller is not too busy these days.
 
I'm surprised at how surprised everyone is. I can't wait to see how surprised these cheaters are when they figure out how surprised we are.
 
We need to take the "man up" message to Wall Street and DC. They are the ones who seem to be panicking.
 
Dow futures just crashed when Dems blocked for political purposes the corona relief package. Be sure & thank the democrats when you lose your job tomorrow and thank them for another 5%-10% downturn in the markets tomorrow.
 
So who do blame for the VIRUS and the response to the getting enough supplies to handle it.
Since the guy in charge knew it was bad in China in DEC.
Who do you blame for the stock market crash the last 3 weeks in a row.
 
Gator said:
So who do blame for the VIRUS and the response to the getting enough supplies to handle it.
Since the guy in charge knew it was bad in China in DEC.
Who do you blame for the stock market crash the last 3 weeks in a row.
Click to expand...
The virus is what's hurting the stock market. Of course a response should have happened a month or more earlier. Our elected officials were so focused on keeping their jobs and power, impeachment, tweeting all day, etc. that they didn't see this coming as they should have. Or they ignored it thinking it would just go away.
I think since the NBA season cancellation Trump has been doing ok, but prior to that not. He's was banking on "hope" that things wouldn't get bad. "Hope" isn't a good way to respond. The people standing behind him now in press conferences should have been there a month and a half earlier.
But, hindsight is 20/20. I'd like to think our government should have enough smart people to have seen this coming, but apparently not.
Even if they had reacted sooner, IMO the stock market and economy would have still taken a massive hit. The difference is just that we'd be a month and a half ahead of where we are now.

I wasn't smart enough to see it coming or I'd have sold all my stock, but national leaders are supposed to be smarter because they have huge resources of smart people to help them.
 

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