Paul_Crawford
Long Time Member
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I put in for G37 deer, and Fort Hunter Liggett elk. Maz points for both,
What sheep unit did you decide on? With max points and especially since they dropped the marble/clippers to one permit.Max points for sheep, elk, and deer. Odds still terrible for top hunts, but someone has to get that sheep tag. So it might as well be me. ?
Trying for G3 to hopefully draw and quit accumulating deer points and hunt somewhere other than A & B Zones. Top elk unit makes a Hail Mary look good.
Oh wasn’t me, I don’t have max points so I don’t apply for the newberry’s but it’s a great hunt and a ton of fun !Think you and I had the conversation last year about who was getting the tag. In the long run neither of us were successful. Any ways going for Newberry. Me and 80 others will try for 1 of the 5 tags. ?????
D5?If you have max deer there is a place to go where you will draw for sure and you won't have to hope for weather and stand a damn good chance for a dandy Buck, I think there are more than a few guys on here that know where I'm talking about!!!!!! If you want to get off your points and have a chance at a mature book I would look into it.
Have a fat check for a trespass fee.Definitely waiting for more results to come out. I missed out on my NM 75% chance tag. But for elk the new Tehachapi hunt is a must apply. Massive bulls.
x1 point creep is going to be going up big time. There are alot of people really starting to apply for that unit. The state gives out way to many tags for that unit for rifle and the herd is really starting to show it. Not to mention the CA Predator; lions, wolves, bears, coyotes; support system they have going in that unit is not good.Opps .. my bad.
X1. Marbles bull, likely table goat..
Already hit a Marbles Mtn bull(2000) and a few way to fast whiteys.
Jester
All on private land thereDefinitely waiting for more results to come out. I missed out on my NM 75% chance tag. But for elk the new Tehachapi hunt is a must apply. Massive bulls.
Yeah you have some land locked down ?Definitely waiting for more results to come out. I missed out on my NM 75% chance tag. But for elk the new Tehachapi hunt is a must apply. Massive bulls.
Every herd state wide is starting to show it. I love the option of two deer tags a year but I really think it should go to one/individual.x1 point creep is going to be going up big time. There are alot of people really starting to apply for that unit. The state gives out way too many tags for that unit for rifle and the herd is really starting to show it. Not to mention the CA Predator; lions, wolves, bears, coyotes; support system they have going in that unit is not good.
Still haven't put in till nv. Results. Max sheep, 100 max guys/year have assumed room temp. The last 3 years. Will draw any of the 3 top bowhunts for mulie. Lope bow, tule bull with the best odds.
Pauns rifle, muzzy, or archery? Guided or unguided?Pauns 26 non res pts..
Panguitch Early Bull..22 non res points.
Jester
I have a spreadsheet that I update every year on the number of max pt applicants, the annual decrease in max pt applicants, and the porportion of max pt applicants that apply for only points.
For the three application years from 2020 to 2022 we only lost 184 max pts applicants (~61/year). On average from 2010 to 2022 we lose approx. 5.3% of max point applicants per year. The more interesting number is the % of max point applicants that apply for only points. From 2010 to 2022 it's remained pretty stable at 14.6%.
Here's a chart on the decrease of max point applicants from 2005 to 2022.
View attachment 110018
I have done the exact same thing but I have done it from my point pool up to max points and am seeing on average 150 people/year drop. If it were to stay at that rate I should be assured a tag in the next 20 years, haha.I have a spreadsheet that I update every year on the number of max pt applicants, the annual decrease in max pt applicants, and the porportion of max pt applicants that apply for only points.
For the three application years from 2020 to 2022 we only lost 184 max pts applicants (~61/year). On average from 2010 to 2022 we lose approx. 5.3% of max point applicants per year. The more interesting number is the % of max point applicants that apply for only points. From 2010 to 2022 it's remained pretty stable at 14.6%.
Here's a chart on the decrease of max point applicants from 2005 to 2022.
View attachment 110018
I'd like to see that math of a guaranteed tag in 20 years! My math is showing that it'll take around 60 years for the max point applicants to have 50% draw odds. That's assuming sheep tags stay constant. If we have more disease events and can't get new units opened up then that timeline will lengthen.I have done the exact same thing but I have done it from my point pool up to max points and am seeing on average 150 people/year drop. If it were to stay at that rate I should be assured a tag in the next 20 years, haha.
I should also mention that my numbers are associated with all sheep hunts aggregated together. Individual odds for specific sheep hunts will vary. I haven't done the math, but I think the odds of a max pt applicant drawing a White Mountains sheep tag in the next 20 years is pretty good!I'd like to see that math of a guaranteed tag in 20 years! My math is showing that it'll take around 60 years for the max point applicants to have 50% draw odds. That's assuming sheep tags stay constant. If we have more disease events and can't get new units opened up then that timeline will lengthen.
For me, my best sheep odds will be to move to Utah and then Nevada after I retire. In fact I think my odds in those states with my points could be >20%.
5% this year. i dont have 20 left. ha.I should also mention that my numbers are associated with all sheep hunts aggregated together. Individual odds for specific sheep hunts will vary. I haven't done the math, but I think the odds of a max pt applicant drawing a White Mountains sheep tag in the next 20 years is pretty good!
If only 5 of the 6 tags in the Whites go to max pts applicants I think the odds are in the 3% -4% range...if things stay steady. IMO >80% of people that apply for the Whites have never been up there. I summited the peak 12 years ago and I knew after that there's no way I would want to hunt it for a sheep hunt!5% this year. i dont have 20 left. ha.
Whites had 6 tags last year. I personally ignore the tag that goes into the random pool since I'm always trying to draw one of the pref tags. Plus there were 2,800 total applicants with less than max points.Last year my odds were 4.32%. my wife and I at 62 did the JMT, Whitney Summit. I would have no problem sheep hunting the whites. But only 50% harvest last year, my guess is 3 guys couldnt handle the physicality. Also, except for deer in ca. If you don't have max pts. It's the same as having 0 pts. And 700 guys are 1 pt. Behind max for sheep. They have no chance of being max.
Just going with what gohunt says. 5 draws probably bumps that up. I am not pulling out my stats book from 79'. HaWhites had 6 tags last year. I personally ignore the tag that goes into the random pool since I'm always trying to draw one of the pref tags. Plus there were 2,800 total applicants with less than max points.
So, for the Whites I come up with 5/133 = 3.759%
Just going with what gohunt says. 5 draws probably bumps that up. I am not pulling out my stats book from 79'. Ha
That's better odds the me waking up with Carrie Underwood!Whites had 6 tags last year. I personally ignore the tag that goes into the random pool since I'm always trying to draw one of the pref tags. Plus there were 2,800 total applicants with less than max points.
So, for the Whites I come up with 5/133 = 3.759%
? I’ll volunteerGood luck in the draw either way! I'd love to see someone on MM draw a CA sheep tag!!
Me too!? I’ll volunteer
? I’ll volunteer
Me too!
Planning on drawing x1 next year...x1 point creep is going to be going up big time. There are alot of people really starting to apply for that unit. The state gives out way to many tags for that unit for rifle and the herd is really starting to show it. Not to mention the CA Predator; lions, wolves, bears, coyotes; support system they have going in that unit is not good.
Though you were a G3 guy. Think I remember seeing pictures of you there with friends.I put in for G37 deer, and Fort Hunter Liggett elk. Maz points for both,
Nice buck jester!Planning on drawing x1 next year...
Will draw Utah 100%,
I got a honey hole in B1..
Plenty of these dinks in this Basin..( short hike in only). Found it after the fires.. it like the fire went right over top and didn't burn it..
View attachment 110067
So at the current rate of individuals falling off of the point pool I am in or ahead of me is on average 150 people per year that divided by the total amount would come to 20 years actually 19 now but with that being said that math going off of the average of individuals that are drawing, passing away, moving away and not applying any longer, or forgetting to apply. With that being said that math would be incorrect if one guy continues to apply and lives to 100. The math that you’re breaking down I believe is the amount of max point holders divided by the available tags available to max point holders. Either way I would exchange spreadsheets with each other if you would like and then we could further discuss it. If your interested send me your email on a PM.I'd like to see that math of a guaranteed tag in 20 years! My math is showing that it'll take around 60 years for the max point applicants to have 50% draw odds. That's assuming sheep tags stay constant. If we have more disease events and can't get new units opened up then that timeline will lengthen.
For me, my best sheep odds will be to move to Utah and then Nevada after I retire. In fact I think my odds in those states with my points could be >20%.
Don’t worry I got that handled when I draw my random choice sheep tag. Good luck everyone.Good luck in the draw either way! I'd love to see someone on MM draw a CA sheep tag!!
One of the hunters died scouting.....so....his tag had no chance of filling...must be how they came up with 50% out of 3 huntersLast year my odds were 4.32%. my wife and I at 62 did the JMT, Whitney Summit. I would have no problem sheep hunting the whites. But only 50% harvest last year, my guess is 3 guys couldnt handle the physicality. Also, except for deer in ca. If you don't have max pts. It's the same as having 0 pts. And 700 guys are 1 pt. Behind max for sheep. They have no chance of being max.
That's tragic. It was 6 tags, 3 of which filled.One of the hunters died scouting.....so....his tag had no chance of filling...must be how they came up with 50% out of 3 hunters
So at the current rate of individuals falling off of the point pool I am in or ahead of me is on average 150 people per year that divided by the total amount would come to 20 years actually 19 now but with that being said that math going off of the average of individuals that are drawing, passing away, moving away and not applying any longer, or forgetting to apply. With that being said that math would be incorrect if one guy continues to apply and lives to 100. The math that you’re breaking down I believe is the amount of max point holders divided by the available tags available to max point holders. Either way I would exchange spreadsheets with each other if you would like and then we could further discuss it. If your interested send me your email on a PM.
Year | Max Pt Apps | % Decrease in max pt applicants | Max Point Applicants Applying for Points Only | Proportion of Max Applicants that apply for Pts Only |
2009 | 3059 | | 425 | 13.9% |
2010 | 2862 | 6.4% | 394 | 13.8% |
2011 | 2746 | 4.1% | 372 | 13.5% |
2012 | 2621 | 4.6% | 367 | 14.0% |
2013 | 2431 | 7.2% | 319 | 13.1% |
2014 | 2261 | 7.0% | 372 | 16.5% |
2015 | 2165 | 4.2% | 342 | 15.8% |
2016 | 2056 | 5.0% | 314 | 15.3% |
2017 | 1967 | 4.3% | 284 | 14.4% |
2018 | 1876 | 4.6% | 290 | 15.5% |
2019 | 1832 | 2.3% | 263 | 14.4% |
2020 | 1689 | 7.8% | 251 | 14.9% |
2021 | 1599 | 5.3% | 239 | 14.9% |
2022 | 1505 | 5.9% | 223 | 14.8% |
| avgs | 5.3% | | 14.6% |
| | | | |
| Estimated Max Applicants (based on 5.3% annual decrease) | Tags available to Max Pts Applicants (as of 2023) | Odds XX:1 | |
2023 | 1425 | 15 | 95 | |
2024 | 1350 | 15 | 90 | |
2025 | 1278 | 15 | 85 | |
2026 | 1210 | 15 | 81 | |
2027 | 1146 | 15 | 76 | |
2028 | 1086 | 15 | 72 | |
2029 | 1028 | 15 | 69 | |
2030 | 974 | 15 | 65 | |
2031 | 922 | 15 | 61 | |
2032 | 873 | 15 | 58 | |
2033 | 827 | 15 | 55 | |
2034 | 783 | 15 | 52 | |
2035 | 742 | 15 | 49 | |
2036 | 702 | 15 | 47 | |
2037 | 665 | 15 | 44 | |
2038 | 630 | 15 | 42 | |
2039 | 596 | 15 | 40 | |
2040 | 565 | 15 | 38 | |
2041 | 535 | 15 | 36 | |
2042 | 507 | 15 | 34 | |
2043 | 480 | 15 | 32 | |
2044 | 454 | 15 | 30 | |
2045 | 430 | 15 | 29 | |
2046 | 407 | 15 | 27 | |
2047 | 386 | 15 | 26 | |
2048 | 365 | 15 | 24 | |
2049 | 346 | 15 | 23 | |
2050 | 328 | 15 | 22 | |
I'll let you decide when you see the numbers below if many max point applicants draw in the random draw.I'd think it's safe to say that at least one or two of the tags that are available in the random draw are actually drawn by max point applicants.
Might be a LONG time before max points will be guaranteed a tag. But even so, hunts are generally under 1:100 . Those are some of the best sheep odds you can get. It’s like a random draw with only a handful of applicants.
Now the Grizzly Island bull tag makes any Hail Mary draw look greasy.
Hunt Code | Hunt Tag Description | 2022 Odds for Max Pt Applicants XX:1 |
501 | Zone 1 - Marble/Clipper Mountains - General Method - Ram | 74 |
503 | Zone 3 - Clark and Kingston Mountain Ranges - General Method - Ram | 64 |
507 | Zone 7 - White Mountains - General Method - Ram | 27 |
508 | Zone 8 - South Bristol Mountains - General Method - Ram | 68 |
509 | Zone 9 - Cady Mountains - General Method - Ram | 65 |
510 | Zone 10 - Newberry, Rodman and Ord Mountains | 81 |
No I wish! I’m too young to be a max point holder. My only hope is that my information I have created is somewhat true in the next 19 years.Brad,
Are you in the max pt pool for CA sheep?
When you have time lets connect to discuss our info/data. I'd love to see your data and have a second set of eyes on mine.No I wish! I’m too young to be a max point holder. My only hope is that my information I have created is somewhat true in the next 19 years.
For sure. Send me your email address and I will send it to you and you can take a look at it and then we can chat.When you have time lets connect to discuss our info/data. I'd love to see your data and have a second set of eyes on mine.
Everyone is different in their physical abilities. I think the main issues with the Whites is that you're driving up to 12k feet and starting your hunt and then hunting sheep in that 11k to 13k feet range for days on end. Starting the JMT at lower elevations and going over 13k passes, and then coming back down in elevation most every day is a lot different IMO. I've summitted Williamson and Tyndall (both 14k) on the same trip and we started at 6,300 feet and I didn't have single issue on that mutli-day trip. On the summit to the top of White Mtn I got altitude sickness, but made it to the top and couldn't wait to get back down. My dog did much better than I did!I don't get whites fear. At 62, my wife and did the jmt nobo. That's 40 lb. Pack, 3k vertical up. 3k down everyday for 21 days starting with a whitney summit@14,505, then look how many passes you go over to Yosemite over 11k..heck the 2nd pass nobo is Forester.
I am assuming the draw odds for max point Residents are much better than max points NR applicants due to the 10% NR cap.The odds for max point applicants is pretty good. These are the odds from 2022. The Whites clearly have the best odds, and should, since that mountain is brutal! I've known two guys that have hunted it and it kicked their arses!! Like I said before, I'm not interested in the Whites because I've been to the top of the White Mtn peak and after that trip it's not really a place I want to hunt for any extended amount of time. I'd rather stick with more traditional desert sheep habitat at lower elevations.
Hunt Code Hunt Tag Description 2022 Odds for Max Pt Applicants
XX:1501 Zone 1 - Marble/Clipper Mountains - General Method -
Ram74 503 Zone 3 - Clark and Kingston
Mountain Ranges - General Method - Ram64 507 Zone 7 - White Mountains - General Method - Ram 27 508 Zone 8 - South Bristol Mountains - General Method - Ram 68 509 Zone 9 - Cady Mountains - General Method - Ram 65 510 Zone 10 - Newberry, Rodman and Ord Mountains 81
How many NRs do you think apply for CA sheep? I can't imagine it's all that many other than NRs that left the state with max points. Even then I know guys with max points that have left CA and never applied again.I am assuming the draw odds for max point Residents are much better than max points NR applicants due to the 10% NR cap.
It is possible that both NR tags could be drawn in the random draw this year which always occurs before the preference point draw. This would take all NR max point applicants out of the preference point drawing.
If one or both NR tags make it through to the preference point drawing once the NR cap is hit all remaining NR max point applications are ineligible to draw and for all practical purposes removed from the draw...
Horniac
I don't think they are obligated to draw the nr quota but I could be wrong.I drew as a NR with max points in 2019. I still would like to know if that actually increased my odds since there might not be alot of NR's with max points. There were two tags issued to NR's that year.
? Up to 10% of the sheep tags but not guaranteed and both R/NRs are in the same drawing pool…I don't think they are obligated to draw the nr quota but I could be wrong.
Since mother's day was yesterday I have to say the view from Mount Williamson was better!Been there…..quite a view
Great views from top of the mountain. Does she hunt and help pack out meat?Since mother's day was yesterday I have to say the view from Mount Williamson was better!
View attachment 110273
She doesn't hunt, but she loves to go and will pack out the meat. She's in better shape than I am! Life is busy so we don't get to go on a lot of hunts together, but she's been on a few with me. I took her on my NM oryx hunt a few years ago. She's been pushing me hard for years to do a Dall sheep or Mexico DBHS hunt, but I just can't fathom spending that kind of money on a hunt.Great views from top of the mountain. Does she hunt and help pack out meat?
From the same source;So up to two tags can go NR instead of one based off of the wording. Interesting that they don’t open it up to all 3 species. @BradA had mentioned that it got talked about but could never find anything official for the other two.
My gut tells me the digest is correct. I apply for a ram every year but since I wasn’t part of the age class that came up with the scam I doubt I’ll ever draw one in CA.
Let me guess why they changed it to 10% max on desert sheep. Nonresident money. Desert bighorn is the one species CA has that will get nonresidents to fork out application and licence fees just to apply. An elk slam isn't as elite of a deal.From the same source;
ELK AND PRONGHORN TAG APPLICATION RESTRICTIONS
Applicants must be 12 years of age or older on or before July 1, 2023, and possess a valid 2023-24 California hunting license.
Only one nonresident may be drawn for an elk or pronghorn tag annually.
Not sure why they only changed BHS…
Horniac
With so many individuals moving out of California the past couple years I would say there are a decent amount of nr max point apps, but it would be interesting to see a true number. I typically hear of or know someone every year that is a nr and draws and they had lived in California at some point.How many NRs do you think apply for CA sheep? I can't imagine it's all that many other than NRs that left the state with max points. Even then I know guys with max points that have left CA and never applied again.
It didn’t increase your odds.I drew as a NR with max points in 2019. I still would like to know if that actually increased my odds since there might not be alot of NR's with max points. There were two tags issued to NR's that year.
That is correct it isn’t a for sure 10 percent it’s up to 10 percent so technically you could have a year that no nr draws.I don't think they are obligated to draw the nr quota but I could be wrong.
If they really wanted to make some money they would open up the draw to a separate application for Sierra Nevada BH sheep hunt.Let me guess why they changed it to 10% max on desert sheep. Nonresident money. Desert bighorn is the one species CA has that will get nonresidents to fork out application and licence fees just to apply. An elk slam isn't as elite of a deal.
BTW, there are no restrictions per residency for deer. But, our trophy draw deer hunting wouldn't merit the cost of applying unless you were buying the license for something else.
Dfw won't touch that strain for years.If they really wanted to make some money they would open up the draw to a separate application for Sierra Nevada BH sheep hunt.
If ever.Dfw won't touch that strain for years.
There's for sure two other, and possibly 4, new DBHS units that they could open that could easily be hunted each year. The Nopah Range and the Castle and Piute Mountains could easily have a couple of tags each.If they really wanted to make some money they would open up the draw to a separate application for Sierra Nevada BH sheep hunt.
Do you have max sheep pts too?As crazy as it sounds. I just moved out of California. I have max deer points and will still stay in the game paying NR fees.
Never got into sheep because you don't care to ever hunt them or felt the odds were horrible?I never got in the sheep game. I used my max elk points 5 years ago.
This system was designed to create a division between hunters- a minority of haves, who remain so for decades and a majority of have-nots, who will never be haves.If I were boss of the draw system, I would have made it like Idaho does. If you choose to apply for sheep, that's the only draw you can apply for. I would never have drawn my tule elk tag, but would still have chosen sheep from the start.
Even the DFW admitted it was unfair. They don't want to make Max Point holders angry is their response.The current draw system will be changed when enough have nots complain loudly enough. The only question is when. Selfishly, I want to draw first, but realize that the ponzi scheme is unfair to those not first in.
That’s a common app, and a good one!!!X5b, NE bull elk, Lassen pronghorn
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