What are the odds?

[kickerbuck]

My co-worker and I were discussing what the odds were of a Mule Deer buck living to 5.5 to 7.5 years old? So basically just a mature deer, not necessarily anything having to do with score. The discussion wasn't for any state or area in particular, but just general odds.

So with Hwys, Predators, Hunting, Poaching, Winters/Drought, Fences, Loss of habitat, and Disease, we thought the odds were somewhere between 1-5% of bucks born make to that mature age class. I ran into a guy with a wildlife degree yesterday and he was studying Sage Grouse down along the Oregon/Nevada border. I asked him if he had been seeing any deer and he said "Not really." He was amazed considering the great habitat and lush conditions.

I asked him the same question and he thought it was only 1% at least in Oregon. His reason was because fawns just don't make it very long once they're dropped, because there simply isn't enough deer to keep the predators busy.

I am certainly no expert and don't have any research one way or the other. So what do you guys think? What are the odds?

 

[scopenstalk]

It’s pretty damn low. I bet I see 1-2 bucks a year on utard general season that are even 4+. Obviously it’s really hard to know but I usually assume if a buck is like 26-28+ he’s Atleast 4. Or if he has a bigger frame like 160+. I killed a buck on general season that was 27 wide and only scored 163 and his teeth said he was 5.5.

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

If it's from birth, the biologist is probably right. If you qualified it by saying, if the buck live to two(or similar), will it make 7, it's probably a bit higher, single digits or teens. I killed one in a MT OTC a few years back that was 7, nice deer, with a big body but not a huge rack. They don't all get big just because they're old.

 

[littlebighorn]

I think there are way fewer 7 year olds than 5 year old bucks, so your definition of maturity certainly has some wiggle room. I also think hunting pressure and the way an area is managed can also be a big factor. Much higher percentage in limited entry hunting areas than general hunting areas. I think your 1-5% is a pretty safe bet. I for sure don't see it being higher than 5% from my observation and probably more on the low end.
My son and I hunted a very good unit in Colorado last year every day during the second and third season and in 12 hard days of hunting we saw maybe two bucks that were probably 5 (based on their body size). We killed one of them.
No 7 year olds for sure!

 

[Duckhunter14]

They were discussing this in a podcast I was listening to recently. I’m trying to remember which one, but I don’t think the bio was far off. It’s relatively low, due to the factors you had mentioned. There are a lot of forces acting against them all year, every year from the second they hit the ground. The sweet spot for maturity seems to be 4-1/2-7-1/2 in our experience, then antler size seems to take a dive after that and 4-1/2 seems to be dependent on moisture and winter conditions the year before, lots of 4-1/2 year old deer need another year to reach full potential. Wr tooth age all our deer and it’s interesting to see the differences in score just based solely on genetics and health of the mother when the fawn is in utero. The last 3 deer I’ve harvested have all tooth aged at 6.5 years old and scored 144” (3x3), 163”, and 184”. So many factors at play. Really makes you appreciate harvesting a deer with “age”. It’s the first thing I’m looking for.

 

[2lumpy]

My co-worker and I were discussing what the odds were of a Mule Deer buck living to 5.5 to 7.5 years old? So basically just a mature deer, not necessarily anything having to do with score. The discussion wasn't for any state or area in particular, but just general odds.

So with Hwys, Predators, Hunting, Poaching, Winters/Drought, Fences, Loss of habitat, and Disease, we thought the odds were somewhere between 1-5% of bucks born make to that mature age class. I ran into a guy with a wildlife degree yesterday and he was studying Sage Grouse down along the Oregon/Nevada border. I asked him if he had been seeing any deer and he said "Not really." He was amazed considering the great habitat and lush conditions.

I asked him the same question and he thought it was only 1% at least in Oregon. His reason was because fawns just don't make it very long once they're dropped, because there simply isn't enough deer to keep the predators busy.

I am certainly no expert and don't have any research one way or the other. So what do you guys think? What are the odds?

I think the odds are 99% the guy with the wildlife degree is correct. Remember humans are part of the predator pool. Not a large enough part of it but we take more than we should be, under current conditions. Between vehicles, weapons, and depredation removal, we kill what the other predators leave.

Here’s an Utah truth. 240,000 hunters killed 82,000 buck mule deer in 1982. (or 1983) This year there will be less than 74,000 mule deer tags sold. What a difference 40 years makes. I’m guessing but I believe the ration of 7 year old deer is about the same in 2023 as it was in 1982/83. Kill them quick was as much a goal of the bureaucracies 40 years ago as it is today. If you weren’t involved then you wouldn’t know. When 4-5 buck per hundred doe was the goal, in the 70s and 80’s it leave many 7 year old then either, by percentage.

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

I think the odds are 99% the guy with the wildlife degree is correct. Remember humans are part of the predator pool. Not a large enough part of it but we take more than we should be, under current conditions. Between vehicles, weapons, and depredation removal, we kill what the other predators leave.

Here’s an Utah truth. 240,000 hunters killed 82,000 buck mule deer in 1982. (or 1983) This year there will be less than 74,000 mule deer tags sold. What a difference 40 years makes. I’m guessing but I believe the ration of 7 year old deer is about the same in 2023 as it was in 1982/83. Kill them quick was as much a goal of the bureaucracies 40 years ago as it is today. If you weren’t involved then you wouldn’t know. When 4-5 buck per hundred doe was the goal, in the 70s and 80’s it leave many 7 year old then either, by percentage.

Sadly this was the attitude in a lot of western states, and still is in some. Sat in a F&G meeting in Idaho about 4 years ago and listened to the biologist tell us "Idaho is an opportunity oriented hunting state", I asked if he considered opportunity to be anything more than a tag in your pocket. He wouldn't answer....

 

[elkassassin]

There's One Thing For F'N Sure!

You Don't Need To Worry About Any Bucks Dieing Of Old Age In This State!

Right Hossy?

 

[wytex]

Man, our little piece of heaven sounds great right now.
We haven't taken a buck under 4 1/2 in many years, however this is private land but in the cwd hot zone.
My oldest is a 10 1/2 yr old 2x3, yep they don't all get bigger racks with age ,lol. Our genetics are not great on the property.
WG&F lab ages all our deer we take , has been doing it for about 30 years now.

 

[Muleyaddict63!]

I've wondered this time and time again. My last 3 bucks were 190" at 5.5 years old, 162" at 6.5 years old and 167" at 4.5 years old. I saw the 6.5 year old two years prior to shooting him and he was almost identical just gained a little more mass. I think a safe bet would be 1-3%. Out of those how many do you think go over 180"?

 

[kickerbuck]

I've wondered this time and time again. My last 3 bucks were 190" at 5.5 years old, 162" at 6.5 years old and 167" at 4.5 years old. I saw the 6.5 year old two years prior to shooting him and he was almost identical just gained a little more mass. I think a safe bet would be 1-3%. Out of those how many do you think go over 180"?

I'm certainly no expert but I would think the 180 conversation would have a lot to do with the genetics of the buck and maybe not as much as making it to 5-6 years old??? From what I've heard the Doe Mom gives her fawn just as much horn genetics from her Dad, as the buck does. That might be wrong though??? I would think a true 180 buck is even more rare then a 5 or 6 year old, so maybe 1%....................... "YIKES" ?

 

[SS!]

I've wondered this time and time again. My last 3 bucks were 190" at 5.5 years old, 162" at 6.5 years old and 167" at 4.5 years old. I saw the 6.5 year old two years prior to shooting him and he was almost identical just gained a little more mass. I think a safe bet would be 1-3%. Out of those how many do you think go over 180"?

Stop shooting them in late/Dec and let them grow up some!

 

[Trix4me]

I shot a 4x4 in the Bookcliffs 34 years ago. 29” His teeth said he was 9. 5 years old. Biggest body on a buck I’d ever seen. I’ll never see another one

 

[kickerbuck]

I shot a 4x4 in the Bookcliffs 34 years ago. 29” His teeth said he was 9. 5 years old. Biggest body on a buck I’d ever seen. I’ll never see another one

That sums it all up right there, 34 years ago and you haven't seen another one like that! 9.5 yrs old is pretty darn rare!

 

[elkassassin]

Notice Trix Mentioned a Big Body As Well!

That sums it all up right there, 34 years ago and you haven't seen another one like that! 9.5 yrs old is pretty darn rare!

 

[kickerbuck]

Notice Trix Mentioned a Big Body As Well!

Elk, maybe I should of asked what the odds are that a pisscutter makes it to 1.5 years old? People in Oregon shoot every spike and forked horn hanging around the roads with their moms. Those deer maybe weigh 110 lbs, so a huge bodied deer is just as rare as a 6 year old buck!!!

 

[schoolhousegrizz]

I shot at 8.5 year old buck that scored 154 and a 5.5 year old buck that scored 187. I think genetics are the most important thing although feed and habitat would be in a second place.

 

[2lumpy]

I shot at 8.5 year old buck that scored 154 and a 5.5 year old buck that scored 187. I think genetics are the most important thing although feed and habitat would be in a second place.

I don’t have any specific knowledge regarding this discussion but I’ve heard of a lot of high scoring younger animals……

Must be like kids that are 6’ 5” 240 lbs in the 9th grade……… happens a fair amount if you think about it.

 

[elkassassin]

Right On!

Elk, maybe I should of asked what the odds are that a pisscutter makes it to 1.5 years old? People in Oregon shoot every spike and forked horn hanging around the roads with their moms. Those deer maybe weigh 110 lbs, so a huge bodied deer is just as rare as a 6 year old buck!!!

 

[SDBugler]

7+ is very rare in most areas. Genetics and and feed are bigger factors in antler growth than age. This is the oldest buck I have taken in SD in my 45 years of hunting. Took him back in the early 90's. He was aged at 8.5 years old by the biologist (back when we had to mail in the teeth from harvested deer). I hunted him for three years. The year I harvested him he had the most mass and carried it up through the tines, but the least length. I also have the shed from the year before I harvested him when he was 5.5. He gained about 8" between 5.5 and 6.5 and gained about 6" between 6.5 and 7.5 then dropped about 8" his last year.

This was a public land buck but right next to a "safety zone" that doesn't get hunted. I missed him opening morning after two other hunters bumped him then caught up with him late that evening as he was trying to sneak through the fence to the safe zone.

 

[heartshot]

I imagine the number to be low but 1% seems crazy low.

1 of 100 bucks is 5.5+ years old
buck to doe ratio 20/100
100 bucks/500 does
Only 1 deer of 600 deer on the mountain is a 5.5yr+ buck?

 

[Deerlove]

I imagine the number to be low but 1% seems crazy low.

1 of 100 bucks is 5.5+ years old
buck to doe ratio 20/100
100 bucks/500 does
Only 1 deer of 600 deer on the mountain is a 5.5yr+ buck?

At least in Northern Utah

 

[lif]

We give ourselves too much credit. A 6+ year old deer generally only gets that old by living where hunters and other predators aren’t prevalent. Hence the fact we don’t see them as often. The older deer are not nearly as common as they used to be, for sure, but older animals get that way by not being shot by a hunter or mutilated by a predator. I would bet that the 4-6 year old deer have seen the biggest drop off of the different age groups of bucks. Listening to stories from years ago and seeing the photographs, it seems like 8 guys at a hunting camp were all getting 150-170” deer with one of them pulling off a 190”+ deer. Seems like the big old deer are are still around like they used to be, but that middle ground of good bucks is almost non existent.

 

[elkassassin]

Add NE Utah To That List!

At least in Northern Utah

 

[NVHunter1985]

'King of Carson' determined to have died from natural causes at the age of 11; will be mounted in Carson City

The King of Carson passed away in a backyard on Roop Street on Sept. 8, and at first it was believed that some form of foul play had taken the King's life, whether from being struck by a car or poisoned by a rival deer who wanted to take the throne.

carsonnow.org

I remember seeing him in the hills behind my house until he was about 6 in area he could be hunted. Then he started showing up in town. It was few and far in between where he would be in the hills and during hunting season he was always in town. He did pass on a good blood line though.

 

[Servehim]

I'll agree that in the great majority of deer country its 5% or less that make it to 6-7 years old, however there are locations where deer die of old age. It takes hard work to get into those spots .

 

[Joe2Kool]

I don't have any specific intel, but I'd tend to agree with your single digit range. IMO, 1-3% seems low, but again, we're all just giving our expert opinions!

Something that makes me think it might be high single digits is young bucks, say 1-3 yrs old are out and about more, and therefore more likely to be seen. Once/if they make it to 6-7, they are more reclusive and less likely to be seen.

Said another way, if you had 50 2-3 yr old bucks on a property, and 50 6-7 yr old buck on the same property, many more of the 2-3's would be seen/shot than the 6-7's. Again, just my opinion.

 

[2lumpy]

I think…… for what that’s worth, the time to be comparing the age class of bucks is not when most of us are interested and paying attention. The time to compare would be in the middle of July, at predawn.