Utah Odds Data Formula

Ticks N Tines · Dec 7, 2012

I'm really confused, How do I get the DWR ratios into Success percentages? See attached, first page is Raw DWR data and second is translated somehow into percentages. Does anyone know the formula to do this?

Horniac · Dec 7, 2012

(# of Permits) divided by (# of Applicants) x 100 = %

In your examples;

2/2 x100= 100%

9/17 x 100= 52.94%

Horniac

Packout · Dec 7, 2012

You add up all the possible points (9 points means they have 10 chances in the draw), divide by the number of non-bonus permits and then divide the points you have by that number.

Points-chances
9-80
8-225
7-200
6-210
5-258
4-165
3-204
2-183
1-140
0-69

= 1734 divided by 12 tags = 144.5. If I have no point then 1 (current year) divided by 144.5 = .69% If I have 2 points then I have 3 chances in the draw (2 points and 1 for the current year) 3 divided by 144.5 = 2.08%

On this unit, having 1 point gives you 1% odds and having 7 points only gives you 5% odds. The reality is that isn'ta much better chance of drawing. Unless the odds are really in a hunter's favor, 10% or better, he may as well roll the dice on a better unit. 1% odds or 3% odds-- not much difference.

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WapitiBob · Dec 7, 2012

LAST EDITED ON Dec-07-12 AT 09:13AM (MST)[p]
And if you're not in the max pool, 12 / 426 = 2.8%
Utah is a lowest number state. You get chances at a lower number based on points but you only go in to the draw with one number.
Not too good no matter how you look at it.

Ticks N Tines · Dec 7, 2012

LAST EDITED ON Dec-07-12 AT 09:54AM (MST)[p]>You add up all the possible
>points (9 points means they
>have 10 chances in the
>draw), divide by the number
>of non-bonus permits and then
>divide the points you have
>by that number.
>
>Points-chances
>9-80
>8-225
>7-200
>6-210
>5-258
>4-165
>3-204
>2-183
>1-140
>0-69

Thanks Packout. I had the data you referenced above but couldn't figure out the formula.

So what do I do with the 144.5 to get my final number? I got that far, but I got lost.

Thanks,
HJB