Utah hunting odds

[swbuckmaster]

I think a lot of guys are reading their points and draw odds on this forum incorrectly.

If you go on to the division page and retrieve your points and it says you have lets say "5 points" then you go on to the hunting odds page on this forum it will ask you what your 2009 points were.

You don't put 5 points in on the mm odds page you put in 4. you never had 5 points in 2009 until after the draw.

So if you really want to see where you ended up it is more then likely one year behind where you thought you were.

Sucks doesn't it!

Archery is a year round commitment!!

 

[WapitiBob]

it's updated now so you use 2009 points to see what your 2009 odds were.
The site does not "project" odds for 2010 using 2009 tag numbers and 2009 applicant pool totals.

 

[swbuckmaster]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-02-09 AT 08:54PM (MST)[p]another example I now have 9 archery deer points at least that is what the division says i have after the 2009 draw. going into 2009 draw I had 8.

this sight shows you where everyone put in and where everyone drew. to use it correctly I believe you have to put your points in where you were going into the 2009 draw.

you dont get your point until after the draw.

I totally understand this sight doesnt project your 2010 odds.

If I am wrong then great but I don't believe I am wrong! that is what sucks!

am I correct? or am I wrong?

Archery is a year round commitment!!

 

[nochawk]

I believe that it would be 8 points going into the draw +1 for the application so you would have 9 points total.

8+1(for new app)=9

 

[hornhunter247]

swb man I thought you knew better than this! you still put in your 9 points, all their showing you is if everyone applies the same way they did last year your odds would be... if you want your true odds for last year put in 8. no one can give you the true 2010 odds.

 

[nvguy2]

I want to know if what nochawk says is true. I always assumed what swbuckmaster said, but my buddy from Utah also says that you add a point for the application. Does anybody know if this is true?

 

[txhunter58]

I have heard that you get your number of points + 1 for how many "chances" you have in the drawing pot.

However, I still believe swbuck is correct. I belive they use how many BONUS POINTS you have when you go into the drawing, not how many "beans" you have in the pot for this drawing when they compile the data on the drawing.

In other words the odds chart reflect the bonus points you had before the drawing, not how many "chances" you had in the drawing.

I will continue to put in how many points I had before the drawing to figure what my odds were until someone proves this theory wrong.

AND, even if we are wrong, that only raises our chances from none to really slim............

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)

 

[goofyelk]

From page 19 in the Utah big game guide book.



How your bonus points work
Fifty percent (odd numbers are rounded down) of the permits for each hunt unit number are set aside for applicants who have the most bonus points.
Before the drawing takes place, a computer randomly assigns a drawing number to you for each species you applied for. The computer also randomly assigns a drawing number to you for each bonus point you have for the species you're applying for. After the computer has randomly assigned your numbers to you, it takes the lowest number you received, and that's the number you'll use in the drawing. The lower your number, the better your chance at drawing a permit.

 

[hornhunter247]

they have already given you the 1 for your application when they figured the odds. so no don't add 1 to your points to try to gain anything.

 

[swbuckmaster]

see what I mean ten different answer's to one question. it doesent seem anyone knows the real answers or can agree on what is the real answer.

I still think I am correct 'which sucks" but would like who ever runs the odds page to clear things up. If I am wrong then I am one year ahead of where I thought I was.

Archery is a year round commitment!!

 

[adamsoa]

Damn dude you need to let me live in my own happy utopia thinking I'm a shoe in for the next couple of years.

"respect my authorita"

 

[bingo]

sw is correct. Look at your points one year back. Make sure you are reading the odds correctly or you might be setting yourself up for disappointment. These draw odds are the best I have ever seen and I use them all the time. I am a member of Huntinfool and the odds on their site sucks compared to these. These are much easier to use and read and the ones I prefer.

 

[cannonball]

It's really quite obvious, what you see on the DWR site is what you get or we wouldn't be seeing applicants with zero points.

 

[JDC]

All,

I am the one that built and operates the odds system here on MonsterMuleys. Let's see if I can explain how this all works. There are two questions that seem to be the big issue here.

The first is how many chances you have in the drawing based on how many points you have built. This is how it works: Say you have 9 points going into the drawing. The system assigns you 10 random numbers - 1 for each point and another for the current application. From those 10 numbers, it selects your lowest number which it compares to the numbers assigned to the other applicants. If yours happens to be one of the lowest out of every one, congratulations - you get a tag. This is actually done twice - once in the bonus drawing where only those with the most points are considered and again in the random drawing where everyone has a chance.

The second question has to do with the odds database and how many points you need to enter to get your true odds of drawing. swbuckmaster is correct. You need to enter the points you had going into the drawing - not what you have now. For example, let's say that the DWR records show that you have 9 points right now. Well, you have yet to apply with 9 points so we do not know what your odds will be at that point level. However, last year you applied with 8 points and the odds in the database show what your true odds were at the 8 point level. From this, you can project what your odds will be at the 9 point level here in the 2010 drawing if nothing changes.

I hope that this helps clear things up. Thanks for all of your interest and for using the odds system here on MM.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com

 

[PleaseDear]

Thanks JDC....

With the Bonus point system in Utah, anyone can actually draw a tag and that is great and the 50% for those that have stood in line the longest is great too.

Robb

 

[RamoneAlone]

swbuckmaster wrong?
Pfffffffffffffffff...........

 

[c3]

The hard part is projecting how many people are left ahead of you after the draw and how many will jump from the rifle draw with their points to archery every year. You have to go to the UDWR site to get the draw results to add up the number who are left at any given point total.

My unit looks like it will be 100% chance for me if none of the higher point holders jump into the archery game next year. I'm going to be hunting big bulls in Utah next year for the first time in 24 years

Cheers,
Pete

 

[fatherofthree]

The odds and points and yada yada are too hard to try and figure out. I suggest you all put in in states other than UT.

 

[PleaseDear]

No doubt in my 2010 Utah application gameplan--------many will jump from the LE mzzy elk to the LE Bow elk with the Bow dates ending Sept 17th in 2010........

My Mrs has 9 LE Deer pts going into 2010 and she is already asking me to look into a CWMU instead of doing Paungs mzzy again.........the top 3 CWMU are not in the mix with her 9pts but the next 4-5 CWMU certainly are.

She is off her 5 year LE elk waiting period in 2011 so she really wants to get out of the LE buck this 2010.

Robb

 

[swbuckmaster]

thanks for clearing things up on how your odds page works.

It however wont change how I apply one bit. I want the Henry mts even if it takes me another 15 years to draw. I will hunt it someday! Until then I guess I will have to settle with hunting the 190"+ bucks on the front every year.

Archery is a year round commitment!!