The UT Draw

[joesikora]

Ok I wanting to start hell raising to UT about why we should keep spending our money for drawing a tag that most of us will never get! What are your complaint, ideas on how to fix it etc etc.
Now I’ve said before as lucky as I’ve been in NM and AZ I’m fine but correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t there around 16,500 NR applicants drawing or gaining points? With only a way smaller amount of tags available. Heck I know a couple of R that are going on 27 years for a San Juan tag etc etc. What can be done? Please no it is what it is! Answers let’s band together to make a change

 

[CFMuley]

Stop applying… it will make everyone else’s odds just a tiny bit better. ?‍

 

[roadrunner]

27 years for a SJ tag is no different than 27 years for an oryx tag, or Valle Vidal tag, or...

 

[yotebuster17]

There is absolutely nothing that can be done. No one wants increased tags as then they waited for nothing worth having. There’s just too much demand and not enough supply. If we can increase the supply we can help, but that takes rain and stopping urban sprawl. Utah does dang good with what god gave them and isn’t afraid to knock out predators and raise money for wildlife. If you could get rid of about 5 million people there it would help on the demand side but that’s hopefully not gonna happen.

 

[El Gringo]

The feedback is 100% Spot on, all the way around

 

[joesikora]

I just seen a 2020 early bull elk hunt on the Wasatch Mountains and they said to prepare for the women‘s hunt they were setting trail cams and laying salt licks! Now I think trail cams are a No No now but are salt licks legal? I set a salt block on the island I deer hunt on and it dissolved in the earth and was never touch until like three years later or more then after that the deer had a 3’x3’x3 hole in the ground. So will setting salt licks attract elk deer right away and if so does that make it illegal?

 

[Silentstalker]

Salt licks are illegal now as well.

 

[joesikora]

Ok still would their have been effective in such a short period?

 

[joesikora]

27 years for a SJ tag is no different than 27 years for an oryx tag, or Valle Vidal tag, or...

Road I have in the past been so lucky in NM I drew the Sargents first rifle elk hunt on my first try! I also drew AZ 22N early rifle elk with only 9 points and it was my second choice! The tag was a returned tag. Oh I have to look back and find the post I put out that I questioned putting in for AZ anymore and I MM member told me to stay the course. So if your out there my brother thanks and send me your address and I’ll send you a couple summer sausages

 

[MrShane]

There is absolutely nothing that can be done. No one wants increased tags as then they waited for nothing worth having. There’s just too much demand and not enough supply. If we can increase the supply we can help, but that takes rain and stopping urban sprawl. Utah does dang good with what god gave them and isn’t afraid to knock out predators and raise money for wildlife. If you could get rid of about 5 million people there it would help on the demand side but that’s hopefully not gonna happen.

The Chinese Flu tried to get rid of that many, it failed.

 

[Lost in Utah]

How much money do you have? There is an easy button that gets you a tag every year.

 

[woodruffhunter]

"Answers let’s band together to make a change"

What would those changes be? Every non-resident and resident wants an elk tag every year and they are disappointed if they do not kill a 350 bull.

Now that I think about it more, I may have a solution. Take up a collection of money from the Non-Residents and buy as many power ball tickets as you can. When you win, each of you can conduct your own draw and buy a few landowner tags from from your winnings.

 

[WapitiBob]

Continuing to apply for a tag you'll never draw has a pretty easy fix.

 

[DeerMadness]

There is nothing you can do. There are so many factors affecting wildlife numbers. There has been dozens of not a hundred posts over the years about why they are down. I have 11 limited entry tags for Deer. I may draw but probably won't. If you don't put in you can't draw. I'm actually on the fence whether I will continue to apply or just let it go. But I know better than to cry about it. Good luck if you do draw.

 

[rmanwill]

Sorry but last year my resident son drew a limited deer tag and he was the 1 out of 4 to draw the last tag at 17 points.

Both myself and my wife drew San Juan elk tags. However, we were both in the max point pool when we drew this tags as residence.

Also when I drew my Utah resident Mtn. Goat tag there was 5 of us in the max point pool and 3 of us drew. This only making 2 too have worst odds then myself, but would have draw the following year.

I have never drawn a random deer, elk or moose tag in Wyoming or Colorado without having the points to be in the max point pool.

The only state I have drawn a good limited tag in a random draw was in Idaho for deer unit 40.

Seems to be pretty hard to draw tags in ant state without the research. time, points and putting in for leaser units that take the points a applicant has at that time. This go's for residence and non residence alike.

 

[txhunter58]

The best thing that could be done from the NR side is to allow us to appy for POINTS for all species, but a tag from only 1. Our odds improve by at least 50% over night (maybe more). We get better odds for the species we want to hunt most that year, and the state still gets their point money. Win/ win.

Most people probably dont realize they apply for all species, but they can only draw 1. If they are drawn for a tag, they are removed from all other drawings. And your odds for drawing 1 of 5 species is NOT larger than if they could only draw one. Because there are so many that apply and your chances get diluted. I would have already drawn an elk tag (at the old numbers) by now if they hadn't changed the system to allow applying for all.

 

[woodruffhunter]

The best thing that could be done from the NR side is to allow us to appy for POINTS for all species, but a tag from only 1. Our odds improve by at least 50% over night (maybe more). We get better odds for the species we want to hunt most that year, and the state still gets their point money. Win/ win.

Most people probably dont realize they apply for all species, but they can only draw 1. If they are drawn for a tag, they are removed from all other drawings. And your odds for drawing 1 of 5 species is NOT larger than if they could only draw one. Because there are so many that apply and your chances get diluted. I would have already drawn an elk tag (at the old numbers) by now if they hadn't changed the system to allow applying for all.

Probably the most logical reply of this thread.

 

[Crampy]

The best thing that could be done from the NR side is to allow us to appy for POINTS for all species, but a tag from only 1. Our odds improve by at least 50% over night (maybe more).

This only concentrates your odds on to 1 species. Moves odds around, but doesn’t change anything of significance.

Same # of animals/tags. So, same # of lucky guys drawing. And same # of unhappy applicants.

This is just the Idaho MSG-elk model. It’s not better, just different.

 

[sticksender]

It sure does change draw odds, even though they'll still be a very low number. But I'd still rather have 5x better odds for one species, than very diluted odds for all species. The reality is most NR will never draw any of the OIL species in a lifetime of applying.

They only started letting NR apply for all species, after they made the purchase of a hunting license mandatory, probably to make it seem like we were getting more for our money.

 

[sb2017]

This only concentrates your odds on to 1 species. Moves odds around, but doesn’t change anything of significance.

Same # of animals/tags. So, same # of lucky guys drawing. And same # of unhappy applicants.

This is just the Idaho MSG-elk model. It’s not better, just different.

Same number of animals/tags, but the people applying would be dispersed between species. So today, when 10 people apply, each one is applying for all species, so the odds are 1/10... if everyone only applied for 1 species, and 2 of those 10 each applied for something different, that brings the odds to 1/2 for each respective species.

 

[Crampy]

It sure does change draw odds, even though they'll still be a very low number. But I'd still rather have 5x better odds for one species, than very diluted odds for all species.

It certainly bumps up your odds for that 1 species. “Concentrating” your odds on that one species instead of distributing that luck across 4-6 species.

But for a guy that applies for all species, it doesn’t change whether he will end up happy or sad. What he gained in sheep odds, he gave up in DEP-moose-goat odds (in a weighted fashion).

Sure, guys who REALLY want to be able concentrate their odds on sheep (or whatever) like these systems (Idaho). But for all-species type appliers, this is a non-issue.

 

[txhunter58]

Anyone know the numbers of NR who apply for just deer and elk? I do that and I predict that number is much higher than those that apply for all species. However, those of us that apply for just 2-3 animals get our odds diluted by the ones who apply for all. So I suspect elk and deer odds would triple if the change was made.

Going from 2 to 6% is substantial. As is 20 to 60%. I actually got up to about 8% for a San Juan elk tag before they made the change. Now my odds for SJ are less than 1% after applying for 20 years! I suspect a big majority of people have one animal they want to hunt more than the others. This change would give them the hope they could hunt that one in their lifetime.

The current odds are so diluted, many will never draw. In other words, under the present system…. “ SO YOU ARE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE?”

 

[Crampy]

Anyone know the numbers of NR who apply for just deer and elk? I do that and I predict that number is much higher than those that apply for all species. However, those of us that apply for just 2-3 animals get our odds diluted by the ones who apply for all.

You’re on the website already, already bought the UTAH base license, and then don’t spend the $15 for every single species?

If one is passing up easy opportunities like that, then I don’t feel too bad about the dilution issue. And yes, you are getting diluted if that is you. I just didn’t realize people would actually do that with the Utah design.

Pay the $15 and get the most bang for your buck. Or, keep trying to change UDWR if that doesn’t feel like banging your head against the wall.

 

[txhunter58]

Of course I will never change your mind. You want to apply for all species and have SOME very small chance of drawing any tag. But I don’t, and I bet there are a lot like me.

That said, I have settled on a mid tier unit and should draw my ek tag soon, maybe this year, ? and be out of the race. But I have been applying for over 20 years. I was in my early 40s when I started. 65 now. Those NRs just starting are looking at maybe never drawing a tag. I got into it early enough to eventually draw a tag. Can’t say that about someone just starting today.

 

[scopenstalk]

Move to Wyoming and hunt there every year and stop applying in Utah. That's the best fix I have for you. Ironic that with the current paradigm the once in a lifetime pool is going to add a couple species before too long.

Can you imagine it, You get the email after applying for 26 years...

"Succesfull: Once in a lifetime bull elk, Wasatch Mountians, Archery"

 

[txhunter58]

Or move to Utah for a couple years….then Wyoming…?

 

[txhunter58]

If you could actually draw more than one tag in the same year, I would find it hard to argue my point of view. But you are really only applying for 1 tag! Just don’t know what species it might be. Deer is first drawing. If you get a deer tag, you are not even in the drawing for all the other species.

 

[middlefork]

THE BASIC BIG GAME DRAWING SEQUENCE​

The big game drawing offers multiple types of permits but limits an applicant to drawing one once-in-a-lifetime or one limited-entry permit per year. Because of this, the drawing order may be important to you. The permit selection process follows the basic order listed in Utah Administrative Rule R657-62-18:

1. Buck deer (premium limited-entry, limited-entry, CWMU and management buck deer)
2. Bull elk (premium limited-entry, limited-entry and CWMU)
3. Buck pronghorn (limited-entry and CWMU)
4. Once-in-a-lifetime
5. Dedicated hunter buck deer
6. Youth general buck deer
7. General-season buck deer
8. Youth any bull elk

 

[marley]

I personally love that I have a shot at any tag in Utah albeit small. There isn’t anything I would change. Everyone gets a shot and the max point holders get a better shot.

I’ve drawn:

Henry’s rifle deer - 1 point
Willard Peak Mtn goat - 2 points
Boulder archery elk - 13 points
Henry’s bison - 14 points
Book cliffs south antelope - 11 points (turned back)

My two brothers both drew Wasatch elk with zero points.

I wasn’t in the max point pool for any of those tags.

 

[txhunter58]

But we all know your luck outshines ours!! By a lot!! LOL.

 

[hossblur]

Imagine if there was no ponzi scheme. Every year you'd have the same chance as anyone else. Results day would be adult Xmas. You could conceivably draw an elk every 5 years. You could draw all oil in a 4 year span.

Shear random dumb luck.

 

[Tristate]

Isn't managing for "opportunity " great?????

Dwr doesn't manage wildlife. They manage people to stupid to realize they are getting screwed.

 

[MrShane]

Imagine if there was no ponzi scheme. Every year you'd have the same chance as anyone else. Results day would be adult Xmas. You could conceivably draw an elk every 5 years. You could draw all oil in a 4 year span.

Shear random dumb luck.

Educate me please.
Can’t you already do that in the random tag pool?

 

[joesikora]

Imagine if there was no ponzi scheme. Every year you'd have the same chance as anyone else. Results day would be adult Xmas. You could conceivably draw an elk every 5 years. You could draw all oil in a 4 year span.

Shear random dumb luck.

We do it’s called NM!

 

[joesikora]

Hi hossblur!
I drew 4 years in a row and drew 5 tags 1 being The first rifle hunt in The Sargents, and it was the first time I applied for the Sargents. I didnt apply for NM for several years when they changed everything for NR’s. I finally went back in in 2017 and drew 51 Archery. This year is the first time since then I think Im in the NM Draw again! In 2019 I drew AZ 22N early rifle hunt with only 9 NR points and it was my second choice! I got the tag because someone turned the tag back in for whatever reason. now Ive been drawing in UT since 2005 so the year is 18 years no tags period in UT and I still and will never have anything to complain about drawing tags! I’ve been blessed! I can always go with a guide in other areas with OTC’s or buy a LO tag if I really need to hunt out west!

 

[txhunter58]

Anyone know how to start a poll?

 

[hossblur]

Educate me please.
Can’t you already do that in the random tag pool?

Simple. All tags are random. No points. Pretty simple

 

[hossblur]

Hi hossblur!
I drew 4 years in a row and drew 5 tags 1 being The first rifle hunt in The Sargents, and it was the first time I applied for the Sargents. I didnt apply for NM for several years when they changed everything for NR’s. I finally went back in in 2017 and drew 51 Archery. This year is the first time since then I think Im in the NM Draw again! In 2019 I drew AZ 22N early rifle hunt with only 9 NR points and it was my second choice! I got the tag because someone turned the tag back in for whatever reason. now Ive been drawing in UT since 2005 so the year is 18 years no tags period in UT and I still and will never have anything to complain about drawing tags! I’ve been blessed! I can always go with a guide in other areas with OTC’s or buy a LO tag if I really need to hunt out west!

I have a 17 yr old, and a 12 year old.

The 12 yr old is pretty much oil for top tier LE units, and honestly, the same for even second tier.

His older brother might, if he's extremely lucky grab 2 LE tags in his life.


We got sold a pile of bullchit increating the point system. About every 5 years was the pitch.

What is younger guys at the time didn't realize, is how the system really benefited the older guys, while hurting us(I'm 49), and destroying chances for our kids.

At the time, you could apply for everything. Older dudes drew multiple OIL tags, a bunch of LE.

Then they retired.

The only system that actually gives odds to new hunters, is no system. How it got decided that your ability to hunt should be decided by when your parents screwed, is assinine

 

[MrShane]

Simple. All tags are random. No points. Pretty simple

You really missed on that one, didn’t you…
I simply asked if you were already applying in the random pool?
I believe Utah has the most fair system of all?
Why would anyone not want to apply in a system that rewards patience with some of the tags and also rewards applicants with a tag out of pure luck.
Seems as perfect as possible?

 

[hossblur]

You really missed on that one, didn’t you…
I simply asked if you were already applying in the random pool?
I believe Utah has the most fair system of all?
Why would anyone not want to apply in a system that rewards patience with some of the tags and also rewards applicants with a tag out of pure luck.
Seems as perfect as possible?

The most fair of them all?

Awards patience?

The only thing the Utah system did was award those who are old. And it penalized new and young hunters.

I have 22 moose points.

There are about 250 dudes with more. 8 tags a year. I believe, I'm still under 1% chance to draw.

So basically, I have a less than 1% chance to draw a tag under Utah's system. Or, in a solely random draws, I'd have a less than 1% chance to draw.

My 12 yr old has no chance at an oil. Would be in his late 40's early 50's for elk, meaning he'd never draw a LE deer tag.

Dudes with really little ones have kids with zero chance.

Not only that, but with a purely random system in which dudes could apply for everything every year, the DWR makes more in app fees.

You don't get increased odds playing powerball because you played years previous. You don't get better slot machine odds.

12 yr old sportsmen are just as deserving as 49 yr old sportsmen, and 89 yr old sportsmen. The animals are held IN THE PUBLICS TRUST, age of the public is not, nor should it be a factor.

 

[SlinginLead]

Ok I wanting to start hell raising to UT about why we should keep spending our money for drawing a tag that most of us will never get! What are your complaint, ideas on how to fix it etc etc.
Now I’ve said before as lucky as I’ve been in NM and AZ I’m fine but correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t there around 16,500 NR applicants drawing or gaining points? With only a way smaller amount of tags available. Heck I know a couple of R that are going on 27 years for a San Juan tag etc etc. What can be done? Please no it is what it is! Answers let’s band together to make a change

On a similar post in the Elk Forum, I complained that the non-resident was getting screwed again, and we are, especially for those with a boat load of points. Airborne replied like he was butt-shot. He went on to say I should "just go hunting" and quit my crying. Like many others, my frustration lies in the fact that no bonus early rifle tags exist in most of the units. When I heard that more hunts were being proposed this year, I figured it meant some bonus round hunts. But still, that is not the case. Those new hunts are mid-season hunts. When I first started applying for Elk in Utah, back in 1982, I was focused on the Monroe unit, since I had hunted Mule deer there for the first time and saw giant Elk. For the first 8-10 years in was all random draws, until the state went with a bonus point system. I started playing that game too, hoping to get lucky someday and draw a tag. But when SFW got involved with Fish & Game, there went the bonus draw for Monroe. I primarily stuck with Monroe, since I was so familiar with the unit, having hunted deer there 12-15 times over the years. Occasionally, I would flip to the Filmore/Pahvant, but lady luck never looked down on me. When I first applied, I had two young kids; now I have 3 grandkids. Over those years, I have had my fair share of medical issues to deal with. Last year I could only put in for points due to a 3rd back surgery and being at the tail end of dealing with Prostate cancer. So, each year it gets harder and harder, physically. My dream is to hunt Elk, in the rut, with a rifle, in a premium unit, but Utah has made it next to impossible, unless I head to Salt Lake City with a suitcase full of cash, and by and auction tag. I have 27 points going in for this year's draw, and still no real chance at the Monroe or the Pavant. Time is getting short. I think I will go cry Airborne a river again.

 

[Deerlove]

The most fair of them all?

Awards patience?

The only thing the Utah system did was award those who are old. And it penalized new and young hunters.

I have 22 moose points.

There are about 250 dudes with more. 8 tags a year. I believe, I'm still under 1% chance to draw.

So basically, I have a less than 1% chance to draw a tag under Utah's system. Or, in a solely random draws, I'd have a less than 1% chance to draw.

My 12 yr old has no chance at an oil. Would be in his late 40's early 50's for elk, meaning he'd never draw a LE deer tag.

Dudes with really little ones have kids with zero chance.

Not only that, but with a purely random system in which dudes could apply for everything every year, the DWR makes more in app fees.

You don't get increased odds playing powerball because you played years previous. You don't get better slot machine odds.

12 yr old sportsmen are just as deserving as 49 yr old sportsmen, and 89 yr old sportsmen. The animals are held IN THE PUBLICS TRUST, age of the public is not, nor should it be a factor.

You better Mentor your kid

 

[Crampy]

The true preference portion (49.9%) of the Utah draw model is broken. No state can have any portion of their system contain a true preference component.

The math just doesn't work.

Thankfully, Utah has only been charging a few dollars for these points, not like Wyoming and their $150 point rape system. So it won't hurt nearly as bad when Utah rips off the bandaids and abandons preference completely.

 

[txhunter58]

It’s curious. Every time you turn around there is someone asking: How do we stop point creep? How do we lower the insane odds for drawing a big game tag. My suggestion about applying only for a single species would guarantee double or triple current odds. Yet not much support, at least outwardly.

For every lucky guy who draws, I suspect there are 99 like me who has been putting in for 20 years without drawing anything. Can someone PM me on how to start a poll. I would like to see if I am truly in the minority, or the silent majority.

That said, I agree with MrShane. I think a combination approach like Utah’s is the best way to go

 

[txhunter58]

The most fair of them all?

Awards patience?

The only thing the Utah system did was award those who are old. And it penalized new and young hunters.

I have 22 moose points.

There are about 250 dudes with more. 8 tags a year. I believe, I'm still under 1% chance to draw.

So basically, I have a less than 1% chance to draw a tag under Utah's system. Or, in a solely random draws, I'd have a less than 1% chance to draw.

My 12 yr old has no chance at an oil. Would be in his late 40's early 50's for elk, meaning he'd never draw a LE deer tag.

Dudes with really little ones have kids with zero chance.

Not only that, but with a purely random system in which dudes could apply for everything every year, the DWR makes more in app fees.

You don't get increased odds playing powerball because you played years previous. You don't get better slot machine odds.

12 yr old sportsmen are just as deserving as 49 yr old sportsmen, and 89 yr old sportsmen. The animals are held IN THE PUBLICS TRUST, age of the public is not, nor should it be a factor.

Yes, I believe that an 89 year old person putting in for 30 years and spending thousands of dollars doing it should have a better chance than a 12 year old putting in for the first time.

 

[Bluehair]

It’s curious. Every time you turn around there is someone asking: How do we stop point creep? How do we lower the insane odds for drawing a big game tag. My suggestion would guarantee double or triple current odds. Yet not much support, at least outwardly.

For every lucky guy who draws, I suspect there are 99 like me who has been putting in for 20 years without drawing anything. Can someone PM me on how to start a poll. I would like to see if I am truly in the minority, in the silent majority.

That said, I agree with MrShane. I think a combination approach like Utah’s is the best way to go

Tx, go to start new thread, then between the thread title box and dialogue box is a tab that says poll. After that it’s pretty easy to figure out the poll questions.

 

[txhunter58]

Can’t Utah residents apply for only one species per year? Last I heard that was the case and they weren’t hollering to change that?.

 

[txhunter58]

Tx, go to start new thread, then between the thread title box and dialogue box is a tab that says poll. After that it’s pretty easy to figure out the poll questions.

Thx! You “youngsters” know all the computer tricks ?

 

[Crampy]

Can’t Utah residents apply for only one species? Or did they change that?

Yes, that is true for Utah residents.

UDWR is now addicted to the $15/species app fee from NRs who apply for all species. UDWR is not going to give that up when it accounts for half of the bill for most NRs. They would cut their gross NR app revenue in half overnight.

I am happy to hear that some NRs would buy a $85 base license but then apply for only one of the seven species offered at only $15 per. That helps those of us who apply for all in Utah.

 

[txhunter58]

So allow NRs to apply for one tag, but also apply for points for all other species. We get get greatly increased odds for that species and state gets their money. Win/win

Why aren’t the residents hollering to be allowed to apply for all species? Could it be that it would destroy their odds?

 

[Airborne]

@SlinginLead A quick check and I'm betting you would have a great chance at drawing these early rifle hunts as they have at least one bonus point tag for your 27 points:

Manti
LaSal
Fish Lake
SW Desert
Wasatch

All great units! The early rifle hunt is going to have a lot less people on the mountain this year which should make for a more enjoyable hunt, less competition!

Tons of great bulls on these units. If I could draw one of these early hunts this year I would in a heartbeat!

I wouldn't consider any of the above hunts as settling. I bet a hard charging guy like yourself could dig up a 350" bull on the Manti or Wasatch with most of the competition being gone and I doubt you would find better bull on any previous year on the Monroe.

Cash in those points my man! Go have a great hunt. Tomorrow is not guaranteed!

 

[Crampy]

So allow NRs to apply for one tag, but also apply for points for all other species. We get get greatly increased odds for that species and state gets their money. Win/win

UDWR would still lose revenue because some of those all species appliers would then go to applying for only one. (and not buying points for the others they care about less).

The current NR all-species appliers would lose because we are currently benefitting from guys like you - that only apply for 1-2 species at $15/per and forego the rest.

 

[Crampy]

Why aren’t the residents hollering to be allowed to apply for all species? Could it be that it would destroy their odds?

The smart Utah residents are hollering about this.

See this 2019 case where a St. George Utah resident was purposefully claiming to NOT be a Utah resident so that he could get all species points. After 8 years of this, he then "moved back" to Utah, taking his all species points with him for a net benefit drawing against other residents.

Undoubtedly many others are also doing it and not getting caught.

Utah DWR reports hunting permit fraud, seize illegally killed animals

The Utah Division of Wildlife Resources is warning of the steep consequences associated with hunting permit fraud.

www.fox13now.com

 

[hossblur]

You better Mentor your kid

Shouldn't have to.

 

[hossblur]

Yes, I believe that an 89 year old person putting in for 30 years and spending thousands of dollars doing it should have a better chance than a 12 year old putting in for the first time.

Why?

Before "points" my uncles and grandpa didn't.

 

[txhunter58]

Why?

Before "points" my uncles and grandpa didn't.

queueing!

When you invest time and considerable amounts of money “in line”, you deserve to get picked sooner on average.

 

[txhunter58]

UDWR would still lose revenue because some of those all species appliers would then go to applying for only one. (and not buying points for the others they care about less).

The current NR all-species appliers would lose because we are currently benefitting from guys like you - that only apply for 1-2 species at $15/per and forego the rest.

I don’t think total apps would noticeably change. After all, it is only $15 each, once you have applied for 1. I can put in for all species now and I don’t. Why? Because I have no desire to hunt the others. IMO those that are currently putting in for everything, will continue to do so.

Your resident is a good example why they will. He cheated to do what we would be able to do: build points in all species and have much greater odds of drawing the one we apply for that year.

 

[SlinginLead]

@SlinginLead A quick check and I'm betting you would have a great chance at drawing these early rifle hunts as they have at least one bonus point tag for your 27 points:

Manti
LaSal
Fish Lake
SW Desert
Wasatch

All great units! The early rifle hunt is going to have a lot less people on the mountain this year which should make for a more enjoyable hunt, less competition!

Tons of great bulls on these units. If I could draw one of these early hunts this year I would in a heartbeat!

I wouldn't consider any of the above hunts as settling. I bet a hard charging guy like yourself could dig up a 350" bull on the Manti or Wasatch with most of the competition being gone and I doubt you would find better bull on any previous year on the Monroe.

Cash in those points my man! Go have a great hunt. Tomorrow is not guaranteed!

Yes, I've got some big decisions to make soon. I couldn't agree more that tomorrow is not guaranteed!

 

[BLooDTRaCKeR]

To the OP’s concern, just band together, create a hackers association and enjoy a tag every year. Otherwise, enjoy the current trends and draw odds of our broken system because you cannot improve a system that cannot keep up with demand.

 

[hossblur]

queueing!

When you invest time and considerable amounts of money “in line”, you deserve to get picked sooner on average.

What money? You paid an application fee. You own nothing. Want proof?

Leave your points in your will. Sell your points.

You paid an app fee, and got an imaginary thing.

You invested nothing more or different than my 12 year old did this year. His app fee, and mine, and everyone else's, was the same.

 

[yotebuster17]

What money? You paid an application fee. You own nothing. Want proof?

Leave your points in your will. Sell your points.

You paid an app fee, and got an imaginary thing.

You invested nothing more or different than my 12 year old did this year. His app fee, and mine, and everyone else's, was the same.

If that’s the case then all of our money, everywhere is imaginary and means nothing. Which is proving to be more and more true every day.
I understand your point but I would say it’s moreso that nothing is or was ever “promised” from buying a point. As a person who holds hundreds of not over a thousand points, I understand that and bend and flex with every state and system full well knowing that tags are only going to get harder to draw, never easier. Ever.

 

[Crampy]

You paid an app fee, and got an imaginary thing.

Intelligently, UT charges that app fee and gives the point for free.

Some states still charge independently for points (up to $100 in CO, up to $150 in WY). How can those states argue that the purchaser does NOT have an identifiable property interest when that was a line item with a distinct point charge?

If the point was free and app fee was just for adminstering the draw - then the purchaser doesn't have a great argument. But if he paid $100-$150 (x 30 years), then it's a much more tangible transaction.

 

[hossblur]

Intelligently, UT charges that app fee and gives the point for free.

Some states still charge independently for points (up to $100 in CO, up to $150 in WY). How can those states argue that the purchaser does NOT have an identifiable property interest when that was a line item with a distinct point charge?

If the point was free and app fee was just for adminstering the draw - then the purchaser doesn't have a great argument. But if he paid $100-$150 (x 30 years), then it's a much more tangible transaction.

Or, you can still "own" your points, but going forward draws will be random. No one "took" your points, you can click on the website and look at them daily, they'd just be obsolete

 

[MrShane]

Or, you can still "own" your points, but going forward draws will be random. No one "took" your points, you can click on the website and look at them daily, they'd just be obsolete

What do you mean ‘going forward’ they will be random?
Not sure what you are missing here but there is already a random draw in Utah.
I enjoy most of your posts but do you really understand how the draw and tag allocation works?

 

[hossblur]

What do you mean ‘going forward’ they will be random?
Not sure what you are missing here but there is already a random draw in Utah.
I enjoy most of your posts but do you really understand how the draw and tag allocation works?

Do you understand we had draws before the point schemes?

What part of 100% random am I not explaining?

 

[MrShane]

Do you understand we had draws before the point schemes?

What part of 100% random am I not explaining?

I guess you better go to your post #63.
No where did you mention 100%.
Why are you so upset that 50% of the tags reward planning and patience and the other 50% reward dumb luck?
I’m sure you own a nice house and a nice truck?
You earned those rewards by planning and patience in your life.
Do you expect the government just to give out houses and trucks without working for them?
Hunting tags are no different, they are not meant to be just given out willy nilly.
You must plan to be successful.
Utah’s system is the most fair of them all.
A true 50% mix.

 

[hossblur]

I guess you better go to your post #63.
No where did you mention 100%.
Why are you so upset that 50% of the tags reward planning and patience and the other 50% reward dumb luck?
I’m sure you own a nice house and a nice truck?
You earned those rewards by planning and patience in your life.
Do you expect the government just to give out houses and trucks without working for them?
Hunting tags are no different, they are not meant to be just given out willy nilly.
You must plan to be successful.
Utah’s system is the most fair of them all.
A true 50% mix.

WLH are you talking about? Did you get your house and truck because you were born before someone else? That's how your getting your tag. The only planning involved was what day your folks got freaky. Bring born before someone is just that, and that "planning" shouldn't be involved in hunting

Utah's system is the fairest ponzi scheme of all the other ponzi schemes.?

Great, it's still a scheme.

Patiently waiting for the dudes in front of you to die off, isn't a ringing endorsement for success.

Point schemes are simply a way to screw young and new hunters. It's a way to cut out the competition.

The wildlife is held in public trust. Not old dude public. Access to that wildlife should be equal amongst that public, not just old public as well.

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

One application for one species LE, OIL, etc. in each state no points no preference. It's the only practical system. Anyone who doesn't agree just thinks he's higher on the pyramid than he probably is.

 

[MrShane]

WLH are you talking about? Did you get your house and truck because you were born before someone else? That's how your getting your tag. The only planning involved was what day your folks got freaky. Bring born before someone is just that, and that "planning" shouldn't be involved in hunting

Utah's system is the fairest ponzi scheme of all the other ponzi schemes.?

Great, it's still a scheme.

Patiently waiting for the dudes in front of you to die off, isn't a ringing endorsement for success.

Point schemes are simply a way to screw young and new hunters. It's a way to cut out the competition.

The wildlife is held in public trust. Not old dude public. Access to that wildlife should be equal amongst that public, not just old public as well.

“Wade Lemon Hunting are you talking about?”.
Why are you bringing Wade in to this?

I can tell we are never going to educate each other on this topic, which is why half the tags are BP rewards and half are dumb luck rewards.
If we had it your way it would be 100% random.
And my way is not 100% BP rewards, only 50%.
How can anything be more fair than that?
You have a great day and I hope you find some peace with the system.

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

“Wade Lemon Hunting are you talking about?”.
Why are you bringing Wade in to this?

I can tell we are never going to educate each other on this topic, which is why half the tags are BP rewards and half are dumb luck rewards.
If we had it your way it would be 100% random.
And my way is not 100% BP rewards, only 50%.
How can anything be more fair than that?
You have a great day and I hope you find some peace with the system.

Do understand that unless you were into the first 5-10 years of these ponzi schemes you will never draw into the BP pool? So most of us are locked out of those tags for life, we'd rather draw at 100% of the random tags every year than have a 100% chance of drawing a BP tag 50-75 years from now. Check the life expectancy tables, the math doesn't work.

 

[txhunter58]

What money? You paid an application fee. You own nothing. Want proof?

Leave your points in your will. Sell your points.

You paid an app fee, and got an imaginary thing.

You invested nothing more or different than my 12 year old did this year. His app fee, and mine, and everyone else's, was the same.

What money???

I paid $117 this year to apply. And that currently includes “buying points” and a hunting license I won’t use if I don’t draw a tag

We will never agree on this. Will post a poll soon to see if I am a loner or if there are more like me.

 

[hossblur]

“Wade Lemon Hunting are you talking about?”.
Why are you bringing Wade in to this?

I can tell we are never going to educate each other on this topic, which is why half the tags are BP rewards and half are dumb luck rewards.
If we had it your way it would be 100% random.
And my way is not 100% BP rewards, only 50%.
How can anything be more fair than that?
You have a great day and I hope you find some peace with the system.

What The Hell.

 

[hossblur]

Do understand that unless you were into the first 5-10 years of these ponzi schemes you will never draw into the BP pool? So most of us are locked out of those tags for life, we'd rather draw at 100% of the random tags every year than have a 100% chance of drawing a BP tag 50-75 years from now. Check the life expectancy tables, the math doesn't work.

Exactly.

 

[hossblur]

What money???

I paid $117 this year to apply. And that currently includes “buying points” and a hunting license I won’t use if I don’t draw a tag

We will never agree on this. Will post a poll soon to see if I am a loner or if there are more like me.

When we do, include age, and number of points.

Buying points is like buying pet rocks

 

[Bwht4x4]

Ok I wanting to start hell raising to UT about why we should keep spending our money for drawing a tag that most of us will never get! What are your complaint, ideas on how to fix it etc etc.
Now I’ve said before as lucky as I’ve been in NM and AZ I’m fine but correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t there around 16,500 NR applicants drawing or gaining points? With only a way smaller amount of tags available. Heck I know a couple of R that are going on 27 years for a San Juan tag etc etc. What can be done? Please no it is what it is! Answers let’s band together to make a change

I'm a NR and Utah's been good to me. I've drawn LE deer, LE elk, and LE pronghorn in the last 8 years. Their system, IMO, is one of the better ones out there.

 

[MrShane]

What The Hell.

Oh, gotcha!
That makes more sense than what you originally typed in your post.
Since you don’t like Utah’s application process you should do what I do and vote with your money.
I don’t like the Expo so I don’t spend a single penny on their application system.
Show the State how bad you hate it and don’t apply, then you can feel good about not supporting it and you can really stick it to the State by not giving them any of your pennies.
You win!

 

[MrShane]

Do understand that unless you were into the first 5-10 years of these ponzi schemes you will never draw into the BP pool? So most of us are locked out of those tags for life, we'd rather draw at 100% of the random tags every year than have a 100% chance of drawing a BP tag 50-75 years from now. Check the life expectancy tables, the math doesn't work.

May I ask what state you are referring to?
You should apply in Utah.
Our system is so fair you can draw an extreme top tier tag even if you have never applied before.
50% of our tags are in a pool that anyone can draw, even a twelve year old applying for his/her very first time.
Then if they don’t draw, they are given a ‘Bonus Point’ that carries to next year.
This way if you are smart with your time and resources, and practice patience which is a key element to being a good hunter, your chances go up each year.

 

[Deerlove]

Do you understand we had draws before the point schemes?

What part of 100% random am I not explaining?

Sounds like you need to move to Idaho or at least put in there

 

[Deerlove]

But you might whine about the $150 plus fee to put in to get a license

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

May I ask what state you are referring to?
You should apply in Utah.
Our system is so fair you can draw an extreme top tier tag even if you have never applied before.
50% of our tags are in a pool that anyone can draw, even a twelve year old applying for his/her very first time.
Then if they don’t draw, they are given a ‘Bonus Point’ that carries to next year.
This way if you are smart with your time and resources, and practice patience which is a key element to being a good hunter, your chances go up each year.

This means 50% of the tags I have effectively zero chance to draw, ever. I do put in in Utah, and my chances are, and will forever be, half of what they would be in a random draw. It's fine to think the system is good, that's your opinion; but the math is the math and can't be argued.

 

[hossblur]

Sounds like you need to move to Idaho or at least put in there

?

 

[txhunter58]

This means 50% of the tags I have effectively zero chance to draw, ever. I do put in in Utah, and my chances are, and will forever be, half of what they would be in a random draw. It's fine to think the system is good, that's your opinion; but the math is the math and can't be argued.

Correct. The math can’t be argued. But 2 times nothing is still nothing.

Please show me an actual example of a very sought after NR tag where elimination of bonus points would make a real difference. Mostly you are talking about raising you chances from 0.4% to 0.8%

 

[hossblur]

Correct. The math can’t be argued. But 2 times nothing is still nothing.

Please show me an actual example of a very sought after NR tag where elimination of bonus points would make a real difference. Mostly you are talking about raising you chances from 0.4% to 0.8%

If your the kid or new hunter, in your scenario, you just doubled your odds.

Plus, if it really doesn't make a difference than it won't hurt to do it.

Funny how it "doesn't make a difference", yet, dudes fight against it so hard.

 

[txhunter58]

It does make a difference to guys with points.

Odds aren’t really the issue with points, it’s how many guys are ahead of you. My method eliminates half to 2/3 of the applicants ahead of you with points.

But hey, once I have drawn my Deer and elk tags, it won’t hurt me a bit to make the change. Hoss, have you drawn any bonus tags? Or all random tags?

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

There are about 7000 people in front of me in the Utah LE deer category. In 2021 the gave out 50 bonus permits. So in 142 years I should be to the top of the pyramid. Can you explain to me how the odds of this are anything other than zero?

Hell, if half the people in front of me die before drawing I'll still only need to live 110 years.

 

[Crampy]

Please show me an actual example of a very sought after NR tag where elimination of bonus points would make a real difference. Mostly you are talking about raising you chances from 0.4% to 0.8%

Yes, abandoning the 49.9% preference point ponzi in Utah would double the random odds on a lot of hunts. From 0.4%, to 0.8%, a very real difference as one is now twice as likely to draw.

Utah will eventually realize that the true preference side of their system is saturated and broken. They will then abandon it for 100% random or 100% BP of some type. Eventually folks understand math when they see it affect them or someone close. Until then, the boomers win and get their preference tags when they are too old to enjoy it.

As long as those preference type boomers have a majority in UDWR leadership and the board, this won't change. Self-interest prevails.

 

[notdonhunting]

Hossblur,
You keep referring to your little one as having 0% chance of drawing.
"My 12 yr old has no chance at an oil. Would be in his late 40's early 50's for elk, meaning he'd never draw a LE deer tag"

This is a list of permits my family has drawing throughout the years of Utah's current drawing system.
1 Rifle Pronghorn Maximum point group
1 Muzzleloader Elk Maximum point group
3 Rifle Elk Maximum point group
1 Rifle Elk Maximum Random Draw
1 Archery Paunsaugunt Random Draw
3 Once in Lifetime Random Draw

All three of the Once in Lifetime was less than 10 points, pretty good for, "no chance of drawing a OIL"
One of the Random elk was less than 10 points.
50% of the permits my family has got are Bonus Point group and 50% are Randon Draw.

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

Correct. The math can’t be argued. But 2 times nothing is still nothing.

Please show me an actual example of a very sought after NR tag where elimination of bonus points would make a real difference. Mostly you are talking about raising you chances from 0.4% to 0.8%

If I apply for 3 tags that all have 0.4% draw odds for 20 years my chances of drawing at least one tag is 21%.

If I apply for 3 tags that all have 0.8% draw odds for 20 years my chances of drawing at least one tag is 38%.

That's an 80% increase in my chances of drawing at least one tag in my lifetime. This is what Utah's system is costing me.

Now if I do this for 6 tags my odds of drawing at least one improve to 61% over 20 years. So yes halving even 0.8% draw odds makes a big difference. And 20 more years is a practical life expectancy for me, 70 is not.

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

Hossblur,
You keep referring to your little one as having 0% chance of drawing.
"My 12 yr old has no chance at an oil. Would be in his late 40's early 50's for elk, meaning he'd never draw a LE deer tag"

This is a list of permits my family has drawing throughout the years of Utah's current drawing system.
1 Rifle Pronghorn Maximum point group
1 Muzzleloader Elk Maximum point group
3 Rifle Elk Maximum point group
1 Rifle Elk Maximum Random Draw
1 Archery Paunsaugunt Random Draw
3 Once in Lifetime Random Draw

All three of the Once in Lifetime was less than 10 points, pretty good for, "no chance of drawing a OIL"
One of the Random elk was less than 10 points.
50% of the permits my family has got are Bonus Point group and 50% are Randon Draw.

You fail to mention how many applications your family has made or when they started buying points in relation to the establishment of the pyramid, or whether R or NR.

 

[notdonhunting]

Don't need to give all that info, just pointing out that without bonus points many pepole draw out every year.
But To answer your question on a normal year 8 applicants all resident.
When they started buying points makes no difference, if is maximum point group it is maximum points or close enough the amount of permits allow your point total to be part of the maximum point draw.
I clearly stated the 3 OIL permits the guys has less than 10 points so it does not matter in relation to the pyramid, they was still in the random draw for 50% of the permits. But if you really need to know the OIL permits were all successful in the last 15 years, so lower on the pyramid scale.

 

[Airborne]

If I apply for 3 tags that all have 0.4% draw odds for 20 years my chances of drawing at least one tag is 21%.

If I apply for 3 tags that all have 0.8% draw odds for 20 years my chances of drawing at least one tag is 38%.

That's an 80% increase in my chances of drawing at least one tag in my lifetime. This is what Utah's system is costing me.

Now if I do this for 6 tags my odds of drawing at least one improve to 61% over 20 years. So yes halving even 0.8% draw odds makes a big difference. And 20 more years is a practical life expectancy for me, 70 is not.

I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure that is not the way statistics work

Your single draw at .4% over 20 years is 7% chance independently the odds of a single tag occurrence happening=>.996^20 power=.923 then take the inverse 1-.923=7% chance of drawing a single tag starting at the beginning of 20 years.

But I don't think that you add the other 2 instances to that to give you 21%. If I have three separate and unrelated occurrences wherein there is a 7% chance of happening over 20 years I doubt I would add those up to get to 21%. It's been a while since statistics but I think you're wrong...maybe. You would have to provide some math links to prove yourself here--I like relearning and I'm digging deep in my memory banks to even answer the single instance example.

The other thing to think about is that all of these .4% instances are not related and that your odds every year are just .4%. Cumulatively at the beginning of the 20 years yes, 7% shot over the 20 years but each year that goes by and you don't draw your odds of drawing in the years left start to drop. For instance in your 10th year of not drawing your odds go to 4% chance for those remaining 10 and never better than .4% in any single draw year.

This is why I like Utah--If I live long enough I'm gonna draw something guaranteed 100%! Full random cannot guarantee me that.

That in and of itself is worth the .8% to .4% decrease in random odds.

This is fun though and I appreciate others perspectives.

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

What are your odds of living 140 years?

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

Your math is the same as mine and we got the same answer. All the draws are independent random events and it makes no difference whether you look at it as one drawing over 60 years(1-.996^60)=21% or 3 separate drawings over 20 years(1-.996^(20*3))=21%. It still 60 events. And the question is finding the inverse of the odds that you never draw any. Which you understand. And I understand that each drawing will have different odds and that the odds will vary from year to year; it was meant to be illustrative of how much difference 0.4% makes over 20 years. Which has stated in another post to be effectively zero. It clearly isn't.

 

[middlefork]

It is pretty apparent it depends on who got ****** when.

Personally I thank my parents in the late 1940's

 

[Airborne]

Your math is the same as mine and we got the same answer. All the draws are independent random events and it makes no difference whether you look at it as one drawing over 60 years(1-.996^60)=21% or 3 separate drawings over 20 years(1-.996^(20*3))=21%. It still 60 events. And the question is finding the inverse of the odds that you never draw any. Which you understand. And I understand that each drawing will have different odds and that the odds will vary from year to year; it was meant to be illustrative of how much difference 0.4% makes over 20 years. Which has stated in another post to be effectively zero. It clearly isn't.

Ok—I see you’re 21% and agree there so thank you for that. The point still remains that each individual year your odds are still just .4% or .8% depending on example. I think that is a lot of folks perspective here, between the .4 or .8 meaning it’s not a big deal difference for whatever year your in while I get your point regarding cumulative overall odds.

I’m not gonna live to be 140 but I believe that in Utah there will be some great tags that can be drawn in 20 years from this point guaranteed. Set a reminder and send me a PM in April of 2043 and we can see if I’m right ?

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

Ok—I see you’re 21% and agree there so thank you for that. The point still remains that each individual year your odds are still just .4% or .8% depending on example. I think that is a lot of folks perspective here, between the .4 or .8 meaning it’s not a big deal difference for whatever year your in while I get your point regarding cumulative overall odds.

I’m not gonna live to be 140 but I believe that in Utah there will be some great tags that can be drawn in 20 years from this point guaranteed. Set a reminder and send me a PM in April of 2043 and we can see if I’m right ?

The question isn't whether you will draw in any given year. The question is whether you will ever draw. Which is a question of life expectancy. Over the next 20 years I have no chance of rising to the top of the pyramid, and most people don't, the younger you are the worse it gets. Meanwhile the guys who got in at the top of the pyramid will likely draw all of the LE OIL tags. There is no way to spin this as fair or equitable. But if I were at the top I'd be thumbing my nose too. I might just get an apartment in Salt Lake if I make 90....

 

[notdonhunting]

Meanwhile the guys who got in at the top of the pyramid will likely draw all of the LE OIL tags

And how do you figure that one?

 

[marley]

I’m not good at math. I just apply for 40+ tags a year and hope I get at least two a year. It usually works.

 

[idahomuleyhunter]

Meanwhile the guys who got in at the top of the pyramid will likely draw all of the LE OIL tags

And how do you figure that one?

Well I could be wrong but looking at the 2021 points break downs there was one resident in all the OIL pools with 28 points and there were two non residents. There are only four ways to take that: 1) people didn't buy points for all species(unlikely) 2) only three people bought points the first year(doubt it) 3) everyone else died before drawing all OIL(some probably did) 4) everyone who started the first year(and didn't die) has drawn all their OILs or will shortly. Unfortunately in 18 years when I get to 28 points there will be dozens and probably hundreds in the pool still instead of 3. And for the kids behind me, after 28 years there will be thousands in their pool. This is how a pyramid scheme works.

 

[txhunter58]

Which is why allowing NR to apply for only one species tag each year (just like residents) would be a good thing for you. It would eliminate over half of the people with more points than you for the species you choose that year. And you could still build points for other species (unlike residents)

Look at the stats for last year and see how many people are ahead of you point wise for that tag. If you eliminate half of them, does that give you a shot in your lifetime? If not you should look at a different unit.

As long as bonus points/tags exist, and they are likely to for some time, this this would be the only way to get you to the top sooner. Unless you can afford to apply for 40 tags per year. ?

It will be very interesting to see how odds stack up after this year as well. There are a boatload more tags than there were. Obviously not in the early rifle ( that should never have happened anyway) but way more tags overall. Whether that is a good thing or bad thing is another discussion. But odds will def be different/ better this year and going forward overall.