The price of groceries

driftersifter · Jan 17, 2008

I think we are going to see more than a small spike in the price of groceries. In the last month our local equity sale barn has had to kill baby calves as nobody will put in the minimum 20 dollar bid on these calves. The price of corn has doubled as has the price of soybeans and the price of hay. Most of the cattle buyers know that these prices won't turn a profit for them in the feedlots. I think the numbers of hogs and even chickens have been reducing in response to the price feed. We will see this on our store shelves very soon in some produce lines and later in other items of consumption. I would suggest that you purchase nonperishable items while they are realatively cheap. I have already noticed the price of milk and eggs rise substantially. Whats your take?
Driftersifter
P.S. I have reduced my personal cattle herd by 40% in response to the increase in the price of hay from 30-35 dollars a big round bale to 70-75 dollars.

huntindude · Jan 17, 2008

Yes and it's about time ag could turn a profit. for years the government subsidies that many people including fat butt Rush have been whining about have kept a stabile oversupply of products around and thus the prices low. the livestock market hasdn't kept up with the increase in the cost of production but it will, give it a little time. the percentage of income Americans spend on food is the lowest of any nation on earth and we eat the best of any nation. if people can pay $4 a gallon for gas they can pay a few more bucks to feed themselves, but just watch the Arab sheiks will get more forgiveness than an American farmer. ag has always been the redheaded stepchild, thanks for bringing this up I feel better now.

Anaconda · Jan 17, 2008

Don?t forget flour. The world wheat flour market has almost doubled in price in the last few months. Bread, pasta, it's all going to sky rocket.

TFinalshot · Jan 17, 2008

how about milk and bread - 100% increase in my area over the last two years. . . Out of control, and the republicans want us to believe that there's no inflation, LOL.

the card house is about to crumble. . .

Hardway · Jan 17, 2008

>how about milk and bread -
>100% increase in my area
>over the last two years.
>. . Out of control,
>and the republicans want us
>to believe that there's no
>inflation, LOL.
>
>the card house is about to
>crumble. . .

Did'nt know you were a farmer/rancher T-F ? I knew you took pictures of barns and cows and stuff like that but had no idea you were speaking from first hand knowledge. At least dude has first hand knowledge, although I dont agree with him all of the time. Part of the reason groceries are outa hand is because of the democrat/liberal people like you vote into office. The same people that you guys praise for saving critical wildlife habitat also have succeded at passing legislation that makes it more difficult for farmers and ranchers to compete with overseas markets. Laws concerning pesticides, minimum wage, and other things like the inheritance tax that was thankfully overturned after bush took office. There are many things that affect the price of our grocceries, You should do a little homework before you start squawkin from your liberal soapbox.

P.S. just to show ya I'm not completley right sided, NAFTA was a mistake by the republican party. I believe we need to feed and compensate the american people first. Although major crops like the Almonds here in Liberal California that contribute billions to the economy are largley supported by overseas markets. Easy fix right? Not exactly, the cost to re-equip and convert these crops to products we are now dependent on to foreingn countries like the fruit and vegtables that come from south america would really put this country in a tail-spin. The democrats have increased labor costs, reduced production by new enviromental laws, and increased the cost of land by supporting urban sprawl. Not to mention keeping your Co2 levels in check so we dont heat up the earth another 1/2 degree. All in all, the cost of doing buisness has increased and the price they get for there products has not at the same rate. But the goverment keeps haulin in peaches from brazil to keep you happy.

If huntin is a sport.....Well your lookin at an athlete!

huntindude · Jan 17, 2008

The main reasons for the increased cost of ag commodities is higher world demand and ethanol production. prices had to come up because producers were no longer in a position to absorb higher production cost like fuel and fertilizer to name a couple major ones.

Bush has slashed the farm bill and sat over the unreal increase in energy prices at the same time, I'm not trying to say it was within his control but there's no way on earth to blame any of this on the dems.

ClorideRUS · Jan 17, 2008

$20.00 for baby calves??? If they wasn't such a pain in the axx to raise, a guy could make some good money right there. Last time I looked dairies were charging $110.00 for day old claves.

RUS

Cornhusker · Jan 17, 2008

Groceries are going to have to triple or more before we pay even close to what Europe and most of the rest of the world pays. I guess I've had it good for so long with low priced food no use complaining now. My kids keep reminding me how lucky we are every time they come back from some place in Europe. Farmers work hard for what they get its only right they make more, unless the middle man sucks up the price increase.

overton · Jan 17, 2008

Ditto what Cornhusker wrote.

Ransom

BeanMan · Jan 17, 2008

LAST EDITED ON Jan-17-08 AT 04:23PM (MST)[p]Yup,

Commodities prices are coming up. What you non Aggies probably don't think about is that the cost of production agriculture has also risen dramatically. Diesel fuel is up 40%, Fertilizers, which are petroleum based, have more than doubled in price, not to mention the price of herbicides and insecticides which are also petroleum based. We spent $38 bucks an acre for insecticides, $15 an acre on herbicides, and an obscenely high amount on fertilizer for our corn this year. (I haven't gotten around to calculating that yet). Not exactly gettin rich on it but we are also affected by the rise in price of everything.

And 'Food for thought' about the farm bill. How many of you are aware that Food Stamps and school lunches are part of the Farm Bill? Some mighty fine pork went on when that happened, those programs really don't belong in the 'Farm Bill'.

Cheers,

Beanman

TFinalshot · Jan 17, 2008

LAST EDITED ON Jan-17-08 AT 05:08PM (MST)[p]I love a pop-off. . . Hey Hardway, I cut my teeth building fence, cutting wheat and hay, I've raised corn, wheat, hay, taters, and barly, horses, cattle, dogs, and a few kids. How many hours have you put in on an old JD 95 cabless cutting barley with a 20 mile per hour tail wind, or a pulling a rod weeder behind a Cat? How much corn have you cultivated? I lost track by the time I was 18 my friend. I've managed nutrition programs for rodeo stock, comercial and registerd cattle, had few race horses, my own cows, saddle horses, hunting horses and rope horses. You would do good to stick to the subject of the post. . .

BTW, I dont think I made a judgment about why or how, I made an observation and a prediction. . .

Hardway · Jan 17, 2008

My family farms 600 ac almonds,I've spent many nights spraying, mowing, discing, and irrigating. We run about a 100 pairs of beef cattle and also have some feed crops like oats and silage corn. We also had cattle trucks for a while, I've done over a million miles haulin cows all over the west. I've spent plenty of time doin my fair share.

You must be about 150 years old. Your also a proclaimed scientist, photography expert, and now you've spent your whole life farming, raising cows, and training rope horses. I find it hard to believe someone with that kind of back ground has the the liberal left wing passion that you post with. If so, you are definatley one in a million.

P.S. You are also correct, I should have not stooped to personal attacks. I appologize. But I still dont agree with you and I'll damn sure let you know. Ryan

If huntin is a sport.....Well your lookin at an athlete!

TFinalshot · Jan 17, 2008

I also spent 7 years in college and a couple in DC (that must of been what ruined me ay -- and who said whole life, you said I had nothing to base my thoughts on as I recall. I'm just telling you what I've done because you called me out on it, i dont claim to be an expert on anything - fined one place where I've said I'm the expert. Your projecting your personal beliefs on to me. Hell I do what makes me happy that's all. BTW, do you know anything about what the republican party used to be, before Ronald Reagan?

Anyhow, back to you being a truck driver, dont let your focus and shortage of motivation, ambition and limitations substitte for other's reality. You sound like a hard working guy and where I come from you kinda gota be careful about making assumptions, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

If ever you want to see my resume just drop on by my friend. . .

I have an open door policy, if youre ever up in my neck of the woods stop on by my little shack up here in montana and I'll poor you some jack or bookers and we can chat all you want. You probably think I make all this stuff up too dont ya?

overton · Jan 17, 2008

T

You've got a gift I have to say. Not sure I'd like it myself although Eastwind today thinks I do.

Ransom

Hardway · Jan 17, 2008

>Anyhow, back to you being a
>truck driver, dont let your
>focus and shortage of motivation,
>ambition and limitations substitte for
>other's reality.

Talk about pop shots,

I dont drive truck anymore. Only did for about 5 years when I was younger and just got outa high school. I'm now and have been for 10 years a gradesetter/lead-man for a freeway contactor. Family cant make enough money in the farming buisness to support all the grandkids, although I still help out when I'm not busy in the winter time.

If huntin is a sport.....Well your lookin at an athlete!

TFinalshot · Jan 17, 2008

LAST EDITED ON Jan-17-08 AT 06:18PM (MST)[p]Hardway, any person that logs a million miles hauling cattle is or was a truck driver, you were proud enough to tell the world about it, now ride it, you own it.

Like I said, you sound like a good hard working guy. I'm in the same boat, I dont work the farm anymore either (thank God - I loved it and even was shipping out to Nevada to buckaroo but then got lucky and went to college - although I did not think was luck back then, today I'm way glad I did it). Today I dont have pound posts (still do a few each year) and I choose where I want to sit, no more gota get up, pack a lunch and eat it while trying to stay awake on a tractor!

Back to the farm, ask any modern day farmer, what once took 8 guys now is done in half the time by two. . . and at the peak during harvest there's a few more.

Take care bud.

Packout · Jan 17, 2008

Anyone else get annoyed by the high-jacker especial?

Anyway, back to the original post. Yes, food is bound to take a huge increase. 50-200%. That could equate to over $3,000 a year for a family of 5.

The "Global Warming" push is a huge part why the price of food is rising. Why? Because in the search for an alternative fuel source, ethanol became a focal point. Ethanol is made from what livestock eat and get fat on. It is made from what humans eat. So corn is the hottest way to make ethanol. Farmers who were growing wheat, milo, alfalfa, etc swapped out those crops in favor of corn. This has created the shortfall in feed (for both livestock and humans). Shortages always means increase in price.

Milk is being shipped to foreign markets (dry powder) and the price of feed has gone way up. So has milk. Chickens eat seeds, which has raised the price of eggs.

Beef on the other hand has not gone up considerably because the US market is flooded with Canadian, Mexican, Argentinian, etc beef. So the high price of feed has led to many farmers selling off their questionable cows. BUT, next year when the grasses grow, those same guys will be buying replacements at a high cost (especially those with grazing permits). Those $10 baby calves would be an excellent investment if a guy has the place to keep them for 2 years. But he has to feed them expensive powdered milk. Why would a dairy feed calves milk which is worth $25 a hundered? They won't.

The FarmBill, hahaha funny that democrats are making it a republican problem and vice-versa. It is a CONGRESSIONAL problem, from both sides.

In the end it all comes back to "Global Warming". Believe it or not, but that craze has had a true negative impact on the food of this country.

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www.sagebasin.com
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huntindude · Jan 17, 2008

$4.00 gas has a little to do with ethanol production as well, and the oil companies resistance to distributing it has held sales down.

The cattle market should improve in a while if you can hold on, unless the economy tanks bad enough and the cost of the rest of your food is high enough consumers shy away from high priced beef. beef is very inefficient, expensive and considered a luxury to most nations. it's a gamble, if people are willing to pay up beef producers could cash in if they hold on, or lose their butts if people change their habits. roll the dice, the whole ag thing is in uncharted territory today.