Spill the Beans

MuskegMan

MuskegMan

Active Member
Messages
752
What did you all put in for? I went for deer in Units 21/30 with the thunderstruck. Last time I hunted CO was 2006 in the Basin. I had double the points necessary, but I'm retired now and want do lots of hunting in all the states I've accumulated points in. Low tags numbers (both deer and elk), lots of relatively easy terrain, warmer weather, lower elevations were some deciding factors for me. Got my Williams Western Precision MZ sights installed this past week and going to the range today. Starting to feel the stoke. Good luck to everyone else in the draw.
 
I put in for points only this year. I hope to retire next winter, and then plan on spending points in 2025.
 
lol I don’t kiss and tell but I will say that I am in for deer elk and antelope as usual and I am hoping to get a phone call saying that someone didn’t want the tag. Nipping at the heels of a lot of hunts.

Pisses me off that a couple of those hunts ended up on the GD leftover and re-issue list….grrrr
 
Ended up going with unit 42 deer, I put in for the 4th season deer tag with a few points since there hasn’t been a 4th season in that unit for at least 10 years. We’ll see.
 
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49 second rifle elk for me. I'm burning more NR points than required (14), but this year was the year to use my points due to my available vacation time. I was 1 to 2 points behind better hunts that I would never reach with point creep. I usually sleep in the back of my truck, but due to the high altitude and time of year, I booked an airbnb in the unit. If it is cold and snowy, if will sure be nice to be sleeping inside where it is warm.
I won't pass up any 6x6 bull on this hunt, and if I can't find a nice bull, I'll happily shoot a smaller bull later in the hunt. I'll be hunting solo, so the pack out will probably take me two days. Slow and steady wins the race.
 
Points for myself. Wife said 8 days max this year for a trip, which after travel only leaves 5 days of hunting so going to focus on whitetail.
 
Points for all, maybe a bear, deer, moose tag… and otc elk since it will be going away next year 😢
 
Elk and deer at the house, deserts down the road a few miles, moose 500 miles away, and another antelope pp. Same as every year.

I don’t believe I’ve ever been anywhere on the west slope where there aint skeeters. They must all move to grand mesa :oops:
 
Bluehair said:
Elk and deer at the house, deserts down the road a few miles, moose 500 miles away, and another antelope pp. Same as every year.

I don’t believe I’ve ever been anywhere on the west slope where there aint skeeters. They must all move to grand mesa :oops:
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I could be on top of Grand Mesa in 35 minutes but I rarely camp there until late August when it cools down enough to dent the skeeter population. The Unc rarely has enough mosquito’s to bother me.
 
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BeanMan said:
I could be on top of Grand Mesa in 35 minutes but I rarely camp there until late August when it cools down enough to dent the skeeter population. The Unc rarely has enough mosquito’s to bother me.
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Same reasons I avoid Cimarron and head for the Unc.
I am really just hoping to draw an archery antelope with 6 and rifle Mountain Goat with 11 weighted but will also get an archery deer, OTC elk and possibly a rifle bear tag. Points for sheep and if i'm am extra lucky a moose tag with 8 weighted points
 
I have 28 individual apps here. Obviously I apply us all for sheep, moose, and goats, without planning on drawing. Points for everything else, except for my 14 year old. He's drawing a 2nd season tag for deer, hopefully. If any of us were to draw one of the three lucky tickets, we would put that as priority. I applied us for a handful of 2nd choice tags that we usually draw.
 
Elk and antelope points only. In for deer with two points with a slight chance of drawing with the quota changes.
 
Muleman1 said:
Really how come u keep going there then ?
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Beaman, Coloradoman and a few more spend a lot of time on that mtn. It is there backyard and their summer, hiking, fishing and camping spot. Has been for many years. They know the mtn. and the animals. The hunting season is just a small percentage of the year and that mtn is a special place to be.

Just a heads up. Those guys have helped numerous people including me in the past. Stand up guy and welcome in my camp any time.
 
rmanwill said:
Beaman, Coloradoman and a few more spend a lot of time on that mtn. It is there backyard and their summer, hiking, fishing and camping spot. Has been for many years. They know the mtn. and the animals. The hunting season is just a small percentage of the year and that mtn is a special place to be.

Just a heads up. Those guys have helped numerous people including me in the past. Stand up guy and welcome in my camp any time.
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Thanks bud!
Same here. As you know we’re up there all the time from May through end of November.
Anytime your looking for a side trip let me know!
 
I’ll be honest. I have not seen a big buck up there since 2017.
I have not seen a buck even 170 in a few years.
Here is the best buck I’ve seen in 61 the last few years and I would never shoot this buck.
IMG_3860.jpeg
 
Very much looking forward to putting in for the zone around canyon of the ancients. Going against my grain and buying a point.
 
Only 2nd choices for all, Elk/Deer/Antelope. This one hurt, since I am finally in the zone for a desirable elk tag with my points level. But couldn't take the chance of a double elk draw with NM. I likely set myself back a few years in CO now, and maybe will never catch up again. Hope that isn’t the case. I did put in for moose with 3+0. If I doubled on that, I’d just have to figure it out.
 
Gunnison Basin 3rd season, never hunted there before. 2 of my kids should draw antelope. Me and my 3 sons all put in the hybrid draw for early rifle 76. Long shot obviously.......got me wondering, has anyone on here ever drawn a high pt. tag thru the hybrid draw?
 
In for Mtn Goat. Collecting points on deer/antelope even though I have enough points for the deer/antelope tags I want, just waiting to see if the herd improves or what changes CPW will make. Elk will be OTC. Sure would be nice to draw the Mtn Goat tag at 20+ years and then I am done with the weighted animals except for buying raffle tickets.
 
Getting ready for the annual disappointment of not drawing NR elk with 27 points this year. I've also decided to stop playing the NV draw game of purchasing a license that I won't use for the privilege of gaining a point. Looks like many guys are seeing the wolf release debacle as the reason to burn their points.
 
Thill said:
In for Mtn Goat. Collecting points on deer/antelope even though I have enough points for the deer/antelope tags I want, just waiting to see if the herd improves or what changes CPW will make. Elk will be OTC. Sure would be nice to draw the Mtn Goat tag at 20+ years and then I am done with the weighted animals except for buying raffle tickets.
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So you’ve had all the other species that take weighted points?
 
CHWino_1 said:
Getting ready for the annual disappointment of not drawing NR elk with 27 points this year. I've also decided to stop playing the NV draw game of purchasing a license that I won't use for the privilege of gaining a point. Looks like many guys are seeing the wolf release debacle as the reason to burn their points.
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Same here with 26 elk points. my wife is in for 551 4th with 18 points so she might have a chance. I don't see any reason to expect CO deer to get better for years so why wait.

The wolf thing will take years to have a noticeable impact on hunting. the talk of cutting the NR quota is what should have NR hunters in a panic.
 
rmanwill said:
Beaman, Coloradoman and a few more spend a lot of time on that mtn. It is there backyard and their summer, hiking, fishing and camping spot. Has been for many years. They know the mtn. and the animals. The hunting season is just a small percentage of the year and that mtn is a special place to be.

Just a heads up. Those guys have helped numerous people including me in the past. Stand up guy and welcome in my camp any time.
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Thank you
 
Gadjet said:
So you’ve had all the other species that take weighted points?
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2 great bighorns and beast of a bull moose last year . I have sheep fever, but I promise you a desert big horn from Colorado means more to a lot of other people than it would to me. I felt a little guilty last year, killing my second big horn sheep. The odds of me getting my first sheep tag were like 150 to one, and I never expected to ever get a second one and it was something like 90 to one for that tag. I’m just trying to pay it a little bit forward and not be any greedier.
 
Deer Gunnison Basin-3. On the edge with points.
Elk 76-1. On the edge with points.
Moose 76. In the noise.
Deer and elk draw will greatly depend on # of high point holders that pivot.
 
Hybrid Muzz Elk w/6 points, 1.5% odds
Archery Deer w/2 points, 16% odds, 2nd choice muzz with 7% odds
Rifle Antelope w/4 points, 0% odds unless the quota change gets me in
Archery Ram Rut Hunt w/3 weighted, 5% odds
Bull Moose w/9 weighted, 4.4% odds
Archery Goat w/8 weighted, 6.3% odds

You've got to love CO resident odds for the big three. I'm not sure you can get that good of odds for those species anywhere else in the lower 48.

37% chance of drawing one of the 7. I'm feeling lucky!
 
SanJuan said:
Hybrid Muzz Elk w/6 points, 1.5% odds
Archery Deer w/2 points, 16% odds, 2nd choice muzz with 7% odds
Rifle Antelope w/4 points, 0% odds unless the quota change gets me in
Archery Ram Rut Hunt w/3 weighted, 5% odds
Bull Moose w/9 weighted, 4.4% odds
Archery Goat w/8 weighted, 6.3% odds

You've got to love CO resident odds for the big three. I'm not sure you can get that good of odds for those species anywhere else in the lower 48.

37% chance of drawing one of the 7. I'm feeling lucky!
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Your sheep, moose, and goat odds are greatly inflated.
 
ORIONTHEHUNTER said:
Your sheep, moose, and goat odds are greatly inflated.
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The odds on my first post are from Gohunt. While they may not be perfect, they are not greatly inflated as you suggest.

The simple odds are:
Sheep 49 apps for 4 tags = 8.2%
Moose 453 apps for 15 tags = 3.3%
Goat 363 apps for 14 tags = 3.8%

These are apps with three preference points. I don't know how to calculate for weighted points, but it's not a leap of faith to think that nine weighted points could increase my moose odds by 1.1%.

Do you care to share a more accurate way to calculate it?
 
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SanJuan said:
The odds on my first post are from Gohunt. While they may not be perfect, they are not greatly inflated as you suggest.

The simple odds are:
Sheep 49 apps for 4 tags = 8.2%
Moose 453 apps for 15 tags = 3.3%
Goat 363 apps for 14 tags = 3.8%

These are apps with three preference points. I don't know how to calculate for weighted points, but it's not a leap of faith to think that nine weighted points could increase my moose odds by 1.1%.

Do you care to share a more accurate way to calculate it?
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You don't know how many are jumping in this year with 3+0. Also how are you giving yourself an increase in odds for moose because of your weighted points. The weighted points do not give that much of an advantage. It boils down to your random number then the tile assignment after your number is reversed. Your odds at 3+9 and the guy with 3+0 are exactly the same for the random number assignment.
 
Yes, no one knows what the odds for this year will be because it hasn't happened yet. Thanks for pointing out that no one can predict the future.

While weighted points don't have a huge effect, 3+0 and 3+9 are not exactly the same. Even if they were, your original assertion of greatly inflated odds is incorrect.

I'll ask again. Share your method of calculating odds since you are so smart.
 
You can't really calculate the exact odds. Like my example the guy with 3+0 and the guy with 3+max have the exact same "odds" of their random number assignment. The weighted points are only a dividing factor after your assigned number, its reversal, then reallocation after the tiles are drawn. I'll let you believe you have almost a 10% chance of drawing a sheep tag. Statistically you don't and you never will. The low point holders are flooding the draw and statistically have been pulling a majority of the tags. The 3+0 to 3+3 group have the best "odds" due to their sheer numbers and have the best chance at obtaining on the lowest random numbers.
 
ORIONTHEHUNTER said:
You can't really calculate the exact odds. Like my example the guy with 3+0 and the guy with 3+max have the exact same "odds" of their random number assignment. The weighted points are only a dividing factor after your assigned number, its reversal, then reallocation after the tiles are drawn. I'll let you believe you have almost a 10% chance of drawing a sheep tag. Statistically you don't and you never will. The low point holders are flooding the draw and statistically have been pulling a majority of the tags. The 3+0 to 3+3 group have the best "odds" due to their sheer numbers and have the best chance at obtaining on the lowest random numbers.
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Agreed, it's all about the "Random Number Replacement Sequence is the numbers 0-9 pulled from the pot by three individuals". Doesn't matter how many points you have, if the first couple numbers in your inverted app number isn't one of the low numbers from the Random Replacement, then you won't get lucky no matter how many points you have.

Not sure how GoHunt calculates the odds. Assuming they do a simulation running the draw thousands of times and seeing if the higher point holders get luckier the more they run it.

I think in the Draw Working Group, they recommend replacing this weird weighted system with just pure bonus points. Still have to get 3 preference points to even be eligible, but then after that they go to bonus like AZ or NV uses. If passed, not sure how long that will take to get implemented.
 
MGOATG-E-G04-01-R11 pts
SheepS-M-S74-01R (9/10-10/10)11 pts
MooseM-M-049-01-x (no addtnl pt)4 pts
elkE-E-201-E1-R (10/12-16)6 pts
deerD-M-066-04R7 pts
antelopeA-M-081-01R6 pts
BearNo point2 pt

shot for the moon on hybrids. All lotto tickets, don't expect a CO tag this year.
 
ORIONTHEHUNTER said:
You can't really calculate the exact odds. Like my example the guy with 3+0 and the guy with 3+max have the exact same "odds" of their random number assignment. The weighted points are only a dividing factor after your assigned number, its reversal, then reallocation after the tiles are drawn. I'll let you believe you have almost a 10% chance of drawing a sheep tag. Statistically you don't and you never will. The low point holders are flooding the draw and statistically have been pulling a majority of the tags. The 3+0 to 3+3 group have the best "odds" due to their sheer numbers and have the best chance at obtaining on the lowest random numbers.
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CPW's statisticians agree with Gohunt's statisticians that weighted points serve essentially the same linear statistical affect as bonus points:


go to 1:24 mins and listen.
 
If you are a high weighted point holder and hope for a weighted advantage—- you need to be looking at codes that should have 10+ tags or more to give your weighted point advantage a chance to get your number where it can draw a tag- sheep tags are a pipe dream except for the lucky ones.
 
Thill said:
If you are a high weighted point holder and hope for a weighted advantage—- you need to be looking at codes that should have 10+ tags or more to give your weighted point advantage a chance to get your number where it can draw a tag- sheep tags are a pipe dream except for the lucky ones.
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Yet there are a number of guys that have drawn multiply tags as a resident which blows my mind .
 
BradA said:
Yet there are a number of guys that have drawn multiply tags as a resident which blows my mind .
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Some guys are luckier than others. Like my dad drew a goat, a rocky and a desert three years in a row. Then another rocky a few years ago. Goat at 3+2, rocky at 3+3, desert first year app. Another rocky at 3+1. It all comes down to that lucky lowest random number.
 
DoeNob said:
MGOATG-E-G04-01-R11 pts
SheepS-M-S74-01R (9/10-10/10)11 pts
MooseM-M-049-01-x (no addtnl pt)4 pts
elkE-E-201-E1-R (10/12-16)6 pts
deerD-M-066-04R7 pts
antelopeA-M-081-01R6 pts
BearNo point2 pt

shot for the moon on hybrids. All lotto tickets, don't expect a CO tag this year.
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Just a heads up, the bigger rams were shot out of S74 last year.
 
If memory serves me-1st ram tag 3 weighted points - 2 tags issued.

2nd ram tag- 9 weighted points- 3 tags issued.

Bull moose 22 weighted points - 16 tags issued.

Out of a group of about 8 hunters in the last 20+ years we have now drawn 3 ram tags - 2 of which I have drawn. 3 bull moose tags, one was notified because the tag was turned in and did not have a great or successful hunt after 14 days. My impatient son got a cow tag and will be back in pool for a bull tag next year.

ONE would expect somebody from our group to draw a goat tag, collectively we have to have well over 100 points in our group and zero goat tags so far.

I would hope we can draw ram tag, but fear I’ve used up our ram luck.

We will know in the next few weeks on our goat and ram tags!
 
Thill said:
That’s something I would say. Steer them anywhere but where you’re putting in!
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That would make sense, but in this case I'm still in the sheep penalty box.
My hunting group has been extremely fortunate with moose, goat, sheep, elk, and deer tags in Colorado. It's made it to where we all get to go on some amazing adventures!
 
BradA said:
Yet there are a number of guys that have drawn multiply tags as a resident which blows my mind .
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A lot of those guys drew their first tag 10-20 years ago… and probably one in a the last 5, changing the application to not paying up front has greatly increased the pool of applicants, I don’t think you will see folks drawing two ram tags much anymore
 
HntHrdr said:
A lot of those guys drew their first tag 10-20 years ago… and probably one in a the last 5, changing the application to not paying up front has greatly increased the pool of applicants, I don’t think you will see folks drawing two ram tags much anymore
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That plus not having to purchase a point. Once you have purchased your 3 points you are in without having to purchase anymore.
 
DoeNob said:
MGOATG-E-G04-01-R11 pts
SheepS-M-S74-01R (9/10-10/10)11 pts
MooseM-M-049-01-x (no addtnl pt)4 pts
elkE-E-201-E1-R (10/12-16)6 pts
deerD-M-066-04R7 pts
antelopeA-M-081-01R6 pts
BearNo point2 pt

shot for the moon on hybrids. All lotto tickets, don't expect a CO tag this year.
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Just a heads up, unless you’re a resident, you do not have a chance at hybrid deer or elk tags. If you’re a resident. Carry on.
 
First time applying for CO, excited. I got 4 points for Elk, Deer, Moose and Pronghorn. Picked up another Deer point, applied for 2nd choice muzzy though. Muzzy Elk in a unit that was 90% at 3 pts last year, so we'll see. Applied for Cow Moose and Muzzy Pronghorn. Fingers crossed.
 
Antelope point only - as if 24 was not enough :cool::cool:
Deer Point only
Elk Unit 61 first season w/24 pts
Sheep unit 34 archery w/ 23 pts
Moose unit 49 w/ 23 pts
Mtn. Goat - drew in 2021
Hopefully draw elk before tag allocations change. At that point I will have to reevaluate because I will never draw then.
 
They already issue tags for 61 in the hybrid but those quotas haven't changed much if at all since they became eligible for the hybrid. Other than that Colorado doesn't have a random draw its straight preference
 
yotebuster17 said:
Just a heads up, unless you’re a resident, you do not have a chance at hybrid deer or elk tags. If you’re a resident. Carry on.
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Ah thank you. After further study I see the NR caps are hit before the hybrid draw so it's useless for NR's for elk and deer. Was gonna point out anyway so i guess i did that. LOL


Proclamation is rather unclear the way it is written in this regard.
 
You never know, one day they might square or cube our points. 🤞🤞🤞
All I am sure of is odds when to crap when you were allowed to put in and not buy a point, and not pay up front.
 
Figure the "odds" any way you want. Fact is Sheep and moose is never in a life time for most applying in 2024. Total apps v total tags=
It took me 37 apps to draw sheep. CO gave the first 2 bull moose tags in north park in 1985 I have applied every year. There are a bunch of us at 39 apps.
 
SMS3901A did not have 10% odds. I like how your cutting out the applicants on your screenshots. If you notice on the S32 app they didn't count the youth applicant with 3+0 who was eligible to draw so those numbers aren't accurate.
 
Umm.... S-39 was 1 tag for 6 eligible apps. Do you now how to read these?

S-32 had 1 eligible youth so it was 5 tags for 39 apps.
 
Yeah like I said 1/6 isn't ten percent. Tell me you think these are the exact odds for drawing a sheep tag? Everyone who is eligible has the same exact "odds" for the lowest random number, that's why your calculated odds are b.s. You cannot do odds for the sheep tags like you can for other tags. Tell me how many sheep tags have you drawn?
 

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