Sheep?

muleymaddness

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What states would you all recommend I start building points in? I'm looking for a balance of draw odds and cost, meaning, if it costs you a license fee each year to enter, it better have decent draw odds.

Currently, I'm not putting in for sheep in any states, but I'm 27 years old and would like to hunt sheep one day, so I figured I better start applying.

Right now, I apply for deer and elk in the following states: NM, CO, WY, UT. I will begin applying for deer and elk in NV or AZ - only one of these due to the license that must be purchased.

I did forget to mention that I am currently applying for the OIL Sheep in UT. So what states should I be applying for sheep in? I'm thinking CO and AZ for sure.
 
I would apply in Nevada too if you put in for deer and elk. You can apply for all three specices and you can draw with no points in Nevada. I think it will cost you $15 for each one you put in for. If you need any help with areas let me know.
 
I second NV as a must apply state. Since you are relatively young and will building points the chances you draw in the next 20 years are good. And just think the Desert is the easist to draw.

from the "Heartland of Wyoming"
 
Do you all think Arizone or Nevada would be better when considering elk, deer, AND sheep? I only want to apply for one of the two states.
 
With the emphasis being on sheep, a nonresident is better off going the Nevada route, in my opinion - if you're only going to do one or the other and definately not both. The number of permits available in Arizona, for nonresidents, is extremely low. Additionally, Nevada squares bonus points.
 
I agree with ram dreamer Nevada I think is the better of the two in my opinion. If you have any question about huning in Nevada I will help you out.
 
Wow I apply for sheep in WY, CO, Utah, NM, AZ but I skip NV.

I think those suggesting NV to a NR have not really looked at the draw odds. Since bonus points are squared you will not find a NR sheep tag, that will give a new NR app any chance. It costs over $200 to apply, in fact in 5 years of applying starting now, your combined NR sheep tag odds there for all 3 will still be under 1%. Last time I checked NR sheep odds they were so bad for a new guy it was unreal, and that was years ago, it is much worse now. I am sure you cannot find odds better then thousands to one your first year, when you account for points.

WY & CO have a way better bang for your buck, cost a lot less and have a lot better odds even though you are only going for 1 sheep species.

Ramdreamer I am sure you have the stats, what is the easiest tag to draw and what are the odds with 0 points? I bet 5,000:1 or worse.
 
LAST EDITED ON Dec-31-07 AT 09:57AM (MST)[p]Don
That's kind of what I heard as well. I heard that overall draw odds for elk, deer, and sheep, all considered, are better in AZ than NV.
 
Don,

To kind of understand my reasoning, remember of couple of things...

A) He's going to be applying for other species as well so it's not all a sheep thing, although that may be the driver. More thoughts below on this...

B) I don't get knotted up in the odds any more, period. ALL of the states' odds for sheep are so absurd that I just don't get wrapped around the axle on that stuff.

One of the reasons I like NV is the ability of a person to apply on-line with a credit card (especially helpful if they are just getting started and don't have a dedicated "fund" built up yet). This allows for some float. Also, after the purchase of the license, it becomes cheap to apply for species. You can separately apply for, and build separate points for, THREE subspecies of sheep in Nevada. In Arizona the one sheep pool is the sheep pool, no matter what subspecies you're after.

I'll be applying in Arizona and Nevada both, but points only this year. I have been doing both states for a long time and plan to continue.
 
Another thing to remember about Arizona is they give tags to max point holders. This virtually eliminates everyone else because after accounting for the max point holders, the "up to 10% non-res tags" are taken. Unless the rules of the draw change, most people will never even get the chance to draw. If you have less than max points, your odds are so statisically improbable, you can say your chances are zero.

In Nevada, you at least have the chance to draw (steep odds, yes). Like Ramdreamer said, in Nevada you get to try for 3 sheep tags. Also, if you look at the draw stats, every year people with less than max points draw the majority of the non-resident sheep tags in Nevada.

All things considered, Nevada is a "statisically better" place for the non-resident without max points to apply.
 
montana is by far the best state for B/C sheep, and if you like, you can draw a sheep tag the first year you put in, if you pick the right area.
 
You can draw NV the 1st year if you get a real low random #. Lots of bonus points don't guarentee you will be drawn before those that have fewer, just that you have better odds drawing a lower randon #.

from the "Heartland of Wyoming"
 
Based on your question of Nevada or Arizona, but not both, I'd go with Nevada. As RamDreamer said, you get to apply for three species of sheep. But, there are a few other things to consider that tip the choice toward the Silver State. First, Nevada has a lot more quality mule deer hunting than Arizona, and you can draw about every five years, way more often depending on what hunt choices you apply for. Arizona, if you're hoping to draw a strip or Kaibab late hunt, is a one time deal for a non-res, and only those with max points have a chance at those tags. You do have a chance at early season tags, whitetail tags and lesser mule deer units, but not late tags north of the Grand Canyon, unless you have maximum points. As for elk, both states have excellent elk hunting with terrible odds. You'd be lucky to draw an elk tag before 5 years in either state for most of the choices, a lot longer if you're putting in for the top hunts. I've had the good fortune to go on five elk hunts in Arizona over the last twelve years, but only two of those were on my own tag, while three were with buddies in lesser regarded units.

Now, to sheep. You have a statistical chance to draw either state with no bonus points, but whether you're at zero or a dozen or more points, the odds suck big time. I don't think DonV quite understands Nevada's system, as you can actually draw with no to very few points, though it's very unlikely. Nevada squares your points each year, and the more points you have, the better chance you have to draw a low random computer number. Each applicant only gets one chance in the drawing, and the advantage of someone with ten points is that they'll get 101 chances to draw a low number, whereas the applicant with no points gets one chance at his computer number, the guy with 1 points get 2 chances, 2 points gets five chances and so on. Once random numbers are assigned, everyone goes into the system ONCE, WITH ONE RANDOM NUMBER ONLY. This applies to all species, not just sheep, but I wanted to answer your question about sheep specifically. In Nevada, once you purchase your license, you can apply for each species for a cost of $10-$20, approximately. I apply for my twenty year old son and I, and we apply for all species for both of us. We put in as individuals, that way if either of us draws, we get to go hunting.

With regard to Arizona sheep, there was a misinformed quote above regarding there being no chance for anyone other than a max points holder to draw a sheep tag among the non-resident allocation. Arizona doesn't use the "max pointholders pool" when drawing sheep tags, like they do for deer and elk. With sheep, they're just like Nevada in that everyone's name goes into the computer once, it's just that the guys with more points get more chances for a low random number.

One other difference that might matter to know if that Nevada has a dedicated allocation of tags for non-residents, whereas Arizona allots "up to" 10% of their tags, but none are guarantted to non-residents.

If you really want to hunt sheep, you might consider doing what so many of the rest of us do, which is to consistently apply everywhere you can. Each year, I apply for my son and I both, in California, Oregeon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana. I don't apply in Washington or Idaho, even though Idaho has perhaps the best sheep odds of any state.

I hope this helps you.
 
This really helps. I appreciate all the replies. I really like the fact that you can apply for 3 species of sheep in NV. And I do think that NV has better deer as well. I was unaware you could draw a decent unit every 5 or so years. Had I known this, this question about AZ or NV would have never came up. From what I hear, AZ has better quality elk than NV, but also suffers greatly (more than others) during drought years.

With all this said - I'll be applying for NV to start building my points.

Thanks a ton for all those who replied!

Cory
a.k.a. Muleymaddness
 
Cory if you need any help with choices in NV let me know I'll be more then willing to help you out. My e-mail adress is [email protected]. The only thing I ask is if you draw a sheep tag I get to go. I drew a desert bighorn tag with 4 points I know I am a resident but I think the most of the NR tags go to people that don't have the max points.
 
NVNative79 - no problem. Do you guide there? Or just love the thrill of the sheep hunt? I've never sheep hunted personally, just read articles. I think it will be the ultimate in big game hunting for me. What a challenge and awesome animal!

For 2008 - all I'm looking for is points, no tag. I've got a high country Wyoming deer hunt already booked.

Can you just apply for the point for the 3 sheep, deer, and elk? Or do you have to list out a unit choice?
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-01-08 AT 07:26PM (MST)[p]THE DROUGHT DON"T MEAN ##### in AZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AZ has more B/C sheep, elk, deer, goats, bears and lions than all of NV has casinos! That says it all!
Sheep odds are terrible in all states but do you want a dink nelson or a book mexicana? AZ also had a 195 Rocky killed this year. No Cali rams but who needs California anyway?

P.S. Keep applying there it'll make it easier for me in AZ
 
Sure all odds are bad, but at 1%-2% oods now, long term with points you get to a point where you, lifelong, have a good chance. NV is the worst. If you know that even in 25 years, your odds will still be very bad and are ok with that then go ahead, but if you have to pick states and by picking NV you skip others you are making a huge mistake.

No matter how bad the odds are, you still are 20 times more likely to draw a tag with 1% odds then .05% odds. Both seem impossible, but 1% really is a lot better.

Using huntin fools stats, which are 1 year old, and thus make odds seem a lot better, the easiest unit to draw was unit 205 (desert sheep - other sheep odds are worse)at 0 points your odds are 4,500:1. Assuming no one drops out, 10 draw (1 a year) and there are no new apps (which, of course, there will be) the odds in 10 years of drawing that tag if you start now will be 307:1. After ten years your odds are 1/3 of 1%. Basically that means your total odds, over 10 years, are about 1% combined (10 years odds added together), for the worst desert sheep tag in NV, ignoring new apps over that 10 year.

When I looked into NV years ago I spoke with the sheep biologist, he said in a good unit you pick your trophy ram, in a bad unit you hope to see a sheep. 1% odds over 10 years for a unit where I hope to see a sheep? No thanks.

Take my info for what it is worth, maybe I made an error, and I have never seen a sheep in NV. Double check my info before you make a decision too.

For rocky mnt sheep there were 3138 guys that started in 2005, in 2008 they have 3 points and thus, ignoring new apps in 2006 & 2007, your new guy odds are over 30,000:1.

Looks bad, the only hope is if you are under 30 and stay healthy and apply for 30 years, by then most ahead of you will have given up.
 
Don,
The odds for Nevada cannot be calculated in the way you show. In 2006 (last year that data is available), max points were 14. Only 1 person with max points drew a Desert tag. The majority of tags (10) went to guys with 7 or less points. Also, Arizona doesn't have Mtn. Goats, and in 2006 one guy with 3 points, and two with 2 points got the tags. The Nevada draw actually works quite a bit differently than you have described. Best of luck to you in the 2008 draws!
 
Don,

Heres what I believe...you over-think and over-complicate things.

The bottom line is all sheep tags have long odds, thats just the way it is and always will be.

A .5 percent chance is better than no chance. I think if a person puts in for 30-40 years for enough tags, you'll hit a few. Thats about the best you can hope for, in any state. I've been applying for draws since 1980 and have drawn a few good tags. I also fully expect to draw some more.

The one constant that stays the same is if you dont apply your odds are ZERO.
 
Muleymaddness, No I am not a guide I just love to go sheep hunting. Yes you can apply for just points on all three sheep.
 
So it appears that there is quite the debate between states for sheep. I think the conclusion that can be made is that both states are tough to draw, but neither can be drawn without applying.

So - ignoring sheep, which would be the better state to apply for in regards to both quality and quantity for both elk and deer. It'd be nice to be able to draw every once in a while and have a chance at a decent animal when drawn.
 
dwalton, yes, they can. If you doubt me call someone high up at the NV draw office, they have followed (or used to follow) the draw odds, and ran computer models to see how the system would work and checked to be sure it does as they predicted) I am sure they will confirm the way I calculated current odds. Future odds are tough to get with good accuracy, but a reasonable estimate is possible.

Lets say, for example, you apply to a hunt with 2 points and the following other guys apply.

10 pnt 1 (101 chances)
9 pnts 2 (82 chances each)
8 pnts 3 (65 chances each)
7 pnts 4 (etc)
6 pnts 5
5 pnts 6
4 pnts 7
3 pnts 8
2 pnts 9 (includes you)
1 pnts 10
0 pnts 11

I put this into excel (it is actually pretty quick and easy to do). The total chances are 1276, with 2 points you get 5 chances so your odds are 0.39% That is over 1 in 250

And no, some may say, you only get one chance, they may give you 5 random numbers and pick the lowest to go into the draw, but you still had 5 chances to get the lowest number it is the same!

Sure all sheep tags are long odds, but again, everyone likes to bury their heads in the sand and tell themselves 1% odds are bad and 0.01% odds are bad. 0.01% odds are 100 times worse then 1%! 100 times worse then bad is 100 times worse.

Now my future predictions make some assumptions, but my calculation of odds is correct.

Also when there are 400 applicants with under 5 points, and 3 with over 10 points of course some guys with lower points are goint to draw. That does not mean anything. So many guys use this "logic".

Also just because you can apply for several thing does not mean your total odds are good. If all apps have 0.01% odds, and you put in for 5 things (3 sheep, mnt goat and elk) your total odds are 0.05%. Again do not kid yourself into falling for this trick, in fact they get more money out of you! Appling to two states to get that many chance - other then NV - is still a better/cheaper bet, and has better odds. I am starting to wonder why I am still explaining this, I should shut up and let you toss your money away and not decrease my odds in other states. Stupid me!

I always say ingnorance is bliss.

Also with my above made up example, can someone please explain how I calculated the odds incorrectly and show me your version?

Many also quote themselves or friends who drew tags in the past. Odds are much much worse now then ever before - anywhere. In the 8 years I have followed odds they have tripled many places, tons of new applicants. You used to be able to draw a good NR bow elk tag in AZ every 5 years or so (or so I am told) that is history. Start now and get one in 15 years and you are lucky.

DonV PE
 
Also a couple years ago I got in this same debate with a guy on bowsite who claimed lower pnt holders were drawing lots of NR elk tags, I checked a lot of hunts/tags and showed that, when you take into account the fact that there are way more apps with low points vs. high points the pnts squared was working, in fact if I remember right 1/4 of max pnt holders for elk drew that year, that is great!

If guys with 10 points make up 1% of the draw and get 101 chances, and guys with 0 points make up 99% of the draw and get one chance then, on average, both should draw just as many tags by point class. In other words roughly half to 10 pnts guys and 1/2 to 0 point guys.
 
dwalton, take a look at how few guys have max pnts, that fact that even 1 drew, compared to how many apps there are is amazing, until you realize they get 197 chances each. As for mnt goats, they just started NR tags a few years ago so of course guys with lower points are drawing.

I am sorry to come across like a jerk, but my math is right and I got annoyed when someone uses some incorrect logic/math and just plain ignorance and says I am wrong, when I am correct. If you look back over the years and different apps you will see that points being squared does make the guys with over 10 points draw a lot, they are a very small group and yet still draw consistently.
 
Don,

Like I said, you over-think it.

Bottom line in random draws, you just have to get lucky.

Also, with only a few states offering NR desert sheep, what choice do you have but to apply? Spend 50-60 large and buy a hunt I suppose.

If you're really worried about the $$$, you'd be a fool to apply for any desert sheep tags in any state.

The only way to draw is to apply. If you choose not to apply in states like NV, it only increases my chances to draw. I'm in for the long-haul and I will draw more tags...despite the "odds".

I also think you're too hung up on the $$$ involved...get over it. Theres a price for admission and it goes to a good cause. I cant think of anything better to donate to than wildlife conservation/management.
 
BuzzH you do make a good point about desert sheep - I did forget about that (I really like rocky mnt sheep - but any sheep tags is good!). There is no where with desert sheep draw odds that are not crazy bad.

Good luck, every year I debate NV, costly to apply, but I see odds tumbling and know I have to secure tags in the future and may eventually start, but not until spending the extra $250 is no big deal.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-05-08 AT 03:35PM (MST)[p]Regardless of the odds, I know that when we're all dead and gone or too old to hunt, my 20 year old son is going to be sitting on a ton of points almost everywhere, or he'll have taken some super hunts. He has points in CA, AZ, NV, UT, WY, MT, CO, OR for everything ranging from deer and elk to sheep, moose and goats.

Some people question spending this type of money on a kid, but then spend 3-5 thousand a year taking their kid to play club soccer or volleyball. I decided, when my son was young, that he was going to be way ahead of others his age when it came to drawing premium western big game tags, and he's headed there. He's sitting on 9 sheep and moose points in WY, 6 moose,sheep and goats in MT, 9 sheep and antelope in AZ (He's already drawn muzzy elk and Kaibab late deer as a teenager), I think he's at 8 for everything in NV, other than the stuff that's only been offered a few years, has 6 deer and elk points in CO, has 9 deer and elk points in OR and is a max points holder for everything in CA, except sheep as he was too young to apply when it started.

He'll be going on great hunts when we're all pushing up daisies!
 
LOL.....just think, if he draws a little early you get to go along and being able to be with your son will make it all worth it.

from the "Heartland of Wyoming"
 
Dan, that's the other half of why I apply him everywhere! He's a little bigger than the last time you saw him. He's about your size now. Two of my last three hunts in Arizona have been when he drew a tag. I have just as much fun watching him fill a tag as if I had the tag myself. How's life in Cody these days?
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-06-08 AT 10:53AM (MST)[p]I also have studied the odds in various different states and the chances are slim, but that doesn't prevent me from applying. I just started applying in different states last year for sheep and goat and wish'd I would have started years ago. Im pretty young at 24 and plan to start applying for desert sheep in AZ and NV this year. My only thought is that it may take me 40 years to draw a tag but I'll bet if I put in that long I will eventually draw a desert sheep tag. Like mentioned above many of the people that are putting in now will likely be dead by then, thats my only hope! (I know that sounds mean, but its the only way I stand a chance, youth is on my side.) I am two points behind on sheep and moose in Wyoming since I was too young when they started the point system, but I will draw a sheep tag here in the next 5-10 years. I was fortuneate enough to draw a bull buffalo tag here in WY last year and the odds were less than 1% so it made me a believer. Over the course of 40 years I probably still wont have spent $60k applying for desert sheep, plus Id rather do it myself than pay a guide. Im looking very seriously at moving to Canada here shortly and my goal in life is now to complete a grand slam all DIY, we'll see in 40 years if I have that accomplished!
 
Wyo, I hope you acheive your dream, and that I'm around to say Congratulations when you announce that you've done it.
 
In Az It'll take you about 18 yrs because The max bonus points is 18. So 18 years from now in Az start getting serious about what unit you want to apply for. If it were me I'd just buy a bonus point for the next 10 yrs, get your hunter safety card (1 bonus pnt for that) and by then you'll have a loyalty pnt so in 10 yrs you can have 12 pnts and it'll only get better from there on. Maybe not, by then there'll be several thousand or more max bonus pnt holders so your odds will prolly be the same.Just hope for the best I guess.
 
Man all this talk about points and hunting sheep in 30 years or so has depressed me. How you guys do it living down there is beyond me. Here in British Columbia, you hunt sheep every year. My biggest dilema right now is do I plan on going on a Stone Sheep hunt in August (over the counter tag), apply for a tag (1-8 odds) for a California Bighorn early september hunt or spend my whole season trying to find the Book Rocky that gave me the slip on the last day of the season. I really wish there was seperate tags for each species, that would make life and sleeping a lot easier.

BHB
 
eklnuts......all is well, snow up to your navel, temps in sngle digits, wind a steady 53mph, beating back the liberals with pitchforks and hand grenades, wish you were here. On second thought, stay in CA, keep working, someone has to keep my reitrement funds solvent. But will attend SCI in Reno, then FNAWS in SLC. Makes for a good winter break.

from the "Heartland of Wyoming"
 
Bighornbob,
Do you have to rub it in? That is one great dilemna I wish I had. If the American dollar keeps going in the pot and illegals keep jumping the Mexican border you may have a few Americans jumping your border. Especially, with readily available sheep tags. Personally, I would go for the Rocky that gave you the slip last year. Have fun.
 

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