price of wheat skyrockets

[manny15]

what a crok, just because everyone interested in ethenol, all the farmers are growing corn and now there is a world wide wheat shortage...too friggen much!

wheat has doubled in price

 

[NeMont]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-21-08 AT 11:04AM (MST)[p]That is a WAY oversimplfied version of what is happening in the wheat market.

This past year is the 7th year in a row that production of wheat has fallen below demand. The ending stocks of wheat has been falling every year. Coupled with a poor harvest in Australia and a smaller then expected wheat crop in other wheat producing countries the ending stocks have eroded even further. This has brought buyers into the market who wish to secure their stock of wheat. Egypt, India and China tendered large purchase contracts just as the supply of wheat was being pressured.

Corn production has very little impact on wheat production as most dryland wheat acreage is not suitable for corn production. If anything the current record prices of wheat could push acres currently growing corn to be converted to wheat.

There is increased global demand for wheat as China and India modernize.

Also the market can go the other just as quickly. It is predicted that wheat planted acreage will increase world wide by 3%. Whether or not that is enough to cool off the market or not remains to be seen.

Just to blame corn is not accurate. If you are worried about what corn ethanol production is doing and you like to eat a good steak you may want to take a look at the looming shortage of fed beef due to the record cost of feed and conversion of pasture land to crop land.

Nemont

 

[stanley]

"what a crok"???? Pretty funny Manny. :7 It's called basic economics! ;-)

Nemont did a good job of explaining things.

S.

 

[huntindude]

Nemont did do a good job and the only thing I can add to it is a couple years ago when we were losing our butts on all grains nobody cared except to whine about subsidies. now that we're showing a profit the sky is falling, why can't farmers make a buck like anyone else? at least the money farmers get for their grain stays here in the US, in fact the exports bring money into the US for a change.

 

[RELH]

Dude;

You and I know that all that profit does not go to the farmer as much as it does the middle man who buys the wheat from the farmer. look at the 60's and what a farmer got for a bushel of wheat and compare it to todays price per bushel. Then look at that loaf of bread and compare it's price increase over the same years.

RELH

 

[huntindude]

True, but the price I'm getting today is twice what it was a year ago. still a small fraction of what retail is but that will never change.

 

[overton]

We need price controls on grain. Farmers get richer and the people get poorer. Talk about big oil, big grain is downright evil.


R

 

[NVBighorn]

>Farmers get richer and the
>people get poorer.

Now that's downright funny! If I get any richer my banker's gonna stop loaning me money.

 

[overton]

NVBighorn

I had Dude in my sights. LOL Sorry about that, just funnin around I assure you. Both sides of my family were farmers.


Ransom

 

[NVBighorn]

No problem. Didn't figure you were serious. But there lots of people who figure all farmers are rich. Most live poor, die rich. But they never know they were rich.

 

[manny15]

you know it doesn't matter what you say around here these days, your made out to be a dumb ass, the way it was explained on the boob tube it was because all the farmers were switching their crops to corn to supply the ethenol..

I knew a guy in down Sacramento Ca. who grew rice, when unlce Sam said " hey I'll pay you not to grow rice, he grew alfalfa,, now that a crok!

 

[NVBighorn]

>I knew a guy in down
>Sacramento Ca. who grew rice,
>when unlce Sam said "
>hey I'll pay you not
>to grow rice, he grew
>alfalfa,, now that a crok!
>


Guess I don't understand why any of that's a crock. Why is it a crock for a farmer to switch to a more profitable crop than he traditionally grows? Is it a crock for a guy to take advantage of tax breaks for making his house more energy efficient? Is it a crock to a person to switch jobs or move if he can make more money doing something else? Is it a crock for a person who becomes a minister to then fall under a tax shelter? Why is it that everyone is jealous of a farmer making a little money. If those people would like to come work with me some time and really understand what it's all about they might have a different opinion. And if they saw how seldom a guy really makes money and how much they have to spend to make it they would soon find they don't have the stomach for it. I get this all the time when somebody sees a few bales of hay or cows in my field. They think I'm rich. I'm pretty sure I run more money through my checking account in a week than they see in a month or two and usually it's going out, not in. But they always say it's about the almighty dollar like we should work for free like they all do. Right!

Sorry Manny, not picking on you, just picking.

 

[manny15]

NVBighorn, so i geuss it was ethical for that guy down in Sac to get paid not to grow rice by the government and then grow alfalfa and sell it making double the money, thats cheesy to me...

 

[huntindude]

It not only was ethical it was good business. the idea behind all programs like that is to control or you might say manipulate the market. by paying the guy not to grow rice the government was trying to avoid an over supply that would drive the price so low the farmers would stop growing rice, then in a short while there would be a shortage and the price would go up and we can't have that. the idea is a stabile cheap supply of food and it's worked pretty well.

I grow peppermint oil and it's an open market, but spearmint oil west of the rocky mountains requires a government approved quota that has to be bought from another grower if you don't have one or you can't sell it. even then they set the price and amount of your quota that can be sold each year. most people have no idea how much the government is involved in making sure your food supply stays safe, secure and cheap. it's not for the farmer's benifit it's for the consumer's, keeping producers in business is the means but not the goal.

 

[woodruffhunter]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-23-08 AT 00:27AM (MST)[p]I am happy to see farmers make money. Many times they don't and you do not see many consumers pleading their case. Then, when they do, people complain about them being rich????

I just bought 2 gallons of milk for $2.50 a gallon. I bought a few loaves of bread for a few bucks.

We are blessed and prieleged to have the goods in this country that farmers provide.

 

[NVBighorn]

Is there anything in the contract to not grow rice that precludes him from growing another crop? If not then why isn't it OK? Sounds like a smart move to me. Also souinds like you're just jealous because you haven't figured a way to do something like that yourself. Are you going to tell me that if you could do something like that and make more monay by playing the game legally you wouldn't do it because you think it's cheezy? If you could figure a way to get paid for doing your job and get paid for not doing something else, and it was legal, I think most would do it.

 

[manny15]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-24-08 AT 11:44PM (MST)[p]>Is there anything in the contract
>to not grow rice that
>precludes him from growing another
>crop? If not then why
>isn't it OK? Sounds like
>a smart move to me.
>Also souinds like you're just
>jealous because you haven't figured
>a way to do something
>like that yourself. Are you
>going to tell me that
>if you could do something
>like that and make more
>monay by playing the game
>legally you wouldn't do it
>because you think it's cheezy?
>If you could figure a
>way to get paid for
>doing your job and get
>paid for not doing something
>else, and it was legal,
>I think most would do
>it.



well lets put it this way, when some one is on well fare, government assistance, can you work under the table.. NO!
read between the lines...

 

[huntindude]

What they pay you not to grow a crop isn't enough to survive on, it's way to control the market not to fallow prime farm ground. if he didn't grow anything on that ground then the price of something else could rise and you'd gripe about that.

 

[NVBighorn]

>well lets put it this way,
>when some one is on
>well fare, government assistance, can
>you work under the table..
>NO!
>read between the lines...

Oh, I'm reading it. You think it's "well fare". Again I ask, is there anything in the contract that says he can't? If not, then it's not under the table. I doubt seriously if you even know if there is anything in the contract. It's often easiest to have an opinion about something when you don't know all the facts. Facts just confuse the issue.

 

[manny15]

Try looking at this one from my point of view, As A Tax payer" you have allot of tobacco farmers in the south, it's been lucrative for them, the government is cracking down on cigarette Co?s.

Now instead of being able to see the future and try growing something else the tobacco farmers cry for a subsidy, I suppose this is ethical for you also?

And you're right I don't know the details of the agreement, but one other thing, I'm a contractor since the housing crash, there's been little to no work, contractors filing bankruptcy by the hundreds, where's my subsidy?..

 

[Pappabull]

I work off the farm to subsidize my farm.

What is amazing to me is that many people do not want anyone to make a good living except themselves.

Maybe people will stop eating my beef and go to eating fenceposts and snowballs. I haven't gotten rich off of beef but maybe when they are out of food and want to eat the top of my fenceposts I will make more money.

 

[NVBighorn]

Well tobacco is another thing altogether but since I don't know much about their situation I will refrain from bagging on them.

So you are a contractor feeling the current crunch. I empathize with you. I have family and friends in that business. But when the banks were doing anything and everything they could to get people into houses they couldn't afford and the building market was going crazy, did you feel at all bad building houses for people who you knew in your heart would have trouble making their payments when their variable rates went up? Who couldn't see this coming? Maybe not to the extent it is now but really, the housing market was crazy. I know only a little about big finance and your business but even a guy like me could see that nothing goes up, up, up forever. Sooner or later it comes down and usually sharply. I witnessed a lot of local builders making tons of money on the housing boom. They couldn't build houses fast enough to satisfy the glut caused but eveybody and his dog buying houses they couldn't afford. But they didn't stop and say "wait, this is wrong. I can't continue to do this to these people". They just did what every one else would have done and kept fueling the inevitable crash. I think you already had your subsidy. But then, I'm not in your business and shouldn't make those assumptions without all the facts.

 

[manny15]

"did you feel at all bad building houses for people who you knew in your heart would have trouble making their payments"

now your calling me crook, I didn't build house's I just remodel 'em.....

and I was one who was dumb enough to think, it just may last a few more years.....

by the way I lost $12,000 last year.

what ever, agree to disagree, have a good one

 

[NVBighorn]

Not calling you a crook at all. Builders were just doing business under a golden opportunity. Is that what you are calling the rice grower in Sacramento? A crook? I thought you said "crock".

 

[manny15]

I find it funny how everyone is so willing to blame the home buyer for buying a home they couldn't afford, when it was all the brokers and banks that knew that they would end up not being able to afford the house once the interest went up, but as long as they got their fees right?, now maybe thats a crook anyways..........

no one is able to foresee the future.

 

[manny15]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-25-08 AT 11:45AM (MST)[p]websters Main Entry: crook
Pronunciation: \ˈkru̇k\
Function: verb
Date: 12th century
transitive verb
: bend
intransitive verb
: curve, wind


my way of saying, bending the truth?

 

[huntindude]

For what it's worth most of the programs have been cut out or cut way back. with the higher commodity prices and increased world demand they aren't needed.

So we've replaced subsidies with higher prices, now everone is whining about that. the farmer can only make people happy when he's working at a loss and not being subsidized. everyone in agriculture enjoy our moment in the sun, if history repeats itself it won't last that long but times are changing. the increased world population and increased wealth around the world just might make this last longer than we think , the power of positive thinking you know.

 

[manny15]

supply and demand isn't that what the oil Co. say, hey i got no grudge with the farmer making a decent earning for his crop, every one should make a profit, but when one hears about people like Ted Turner & Coby making $ on a subsidies, it just puts a bad taste in my mouth.

The housing market crash was based on one thing GREED!...on the part of the broker and banker's, too bad some people fell for the B.S american dream they were peddling of owning your own home.........

 

[NVBighorn]

Oh, were we talking about Ted and Coby? They grow rice?

The housing crash may have been based on greed. It also may have been a carefully orchestrated deal to make Bush's domestic policies look like crap. Since for his entire administration prior to that we were a near fully employed country doing well something had to change. Whatever it was based on the previous housing boom was good for the short term economy. A lot of people, including builders, made a lot of money doing it. Too bad it was a paper tiger and couldn't sustain itself. It's all about timing. But hey, this is getting way too political for the campfire.

 

[B_F_E]

Oh man !

If I only had the unauthorized power that was promised me, there would be sum nukes splodin bout now

 

[manny15]

????????????

 

[huntindude]

yes, ????????

 

[driftersifter]

You only lost 12,000 Heck I have lost three times that twice once in the drought of 88 and another time in 2004. I lost nearly that in 95. I think the term is called risk. To farm you must be willing to take a few risks. I bet all your tools and truck doesen't equal the investment of one combine. Thats just one tool in my shed. Think about it. Manny
Driftersifter
P.S. I work off my farm so I can afford to farm. Too many peaks and valleys either in price or weather.

 

[264winmag]

>You only lost 12,000 Heck I
>have lost three times that
>twice once in the drought
>of 88 and another time
>in 2004. I lost
>nearly that in 95.
>I think the term is
>called risk. To farm
>you must be willing to
>take a few risks.
>I bet all your tools
>and truck doesen't equal the
>investment of one combine.
>Thats just one tool in
>my shed. Think
>about it. Manny
> Driftersifter
>P.S. I work off my farm
>so I can afford to
>farm. Too many peaks
>and valleys either in price
>or weather.
I have been a pecan grower since 1969. This a free market with no government oversight including subsidies.
It is a game of risks and after 9/11 i lost a hell of alot more than 12000.
Bottom line: you got to make hay when the sun is shining, farming or construction. Any row croper I know would get his CRP money and farm the land if he could. Way to go CA rice farmer.
I like the saying :if we won the lotto we would farm until the money ran out"