Preference Point: Attrition Rates-On Average

[crcountry]

Does anyone have a guess at how many people drop out of the Moose and Sheep preference point pools every year?

I'm guessing 5% overall, but certainly not 5% out of every point category. I bet its pretty random. Some unfortunately pass away, some forget for the 2nd year in a row, some choose to abandon the preference point game.

Thoughts? Rough estimates?
Thanks
Crcountry

 

[CAelknuts]

I have 18 sheep points, while my son has 18 for both sheep and moose. There is no way we are dropping out till we draw those tags.

 

[nontypical]

Lots of folks only buy points due to various reasons. My buddy drew his tag last year with max points. It was the first year he had actually applied for the tag. He retired and was ready to go sheep hunting!

Family, job, illness; many reasons why people just buy points.

I don't know how you would ever guess what percentage that might be though. 5% sounds reasonable. I would think past info would be attainable.

 

[Servehim]

I'm out...at 13 points (age 57) I'll never draw a tag in time to physically be able to use it. Focus my money and efforts elsewhere.

 

[mulecreek]

I believe HornedToad has done this analysis in the past for sheep and he comes up with about a 4% attrition rate.

 

[Zeke]

>I believe HornedToad has done this
>analysis in the past for
>sheep and he comes up
>with about a 4% attrition
>rate.

Yes he has.
A quick search on the "sheep, moose, antelope" section here on MM and you'll find what you want.

Zeke

 

[ElmerFudd]

You really can't worry too much about future rates of return on a sheep tag application investment. Lots can change over the years. I for sure would never just buy a point on something like a sheep tag. Random draw nonresident odds really aren't any worse than trying to get a sheep tag in other states. For sure, WY random odds are far better than having max points in MT's sheep draw.

I just noticed that I'm eligible to apply again for WY sheep. I'm too old to have another shot at a preference tag again, I was in the -1 pool when I drew.