I personally have 8 points and would never go for the Paunsagaunt elk. I did see about 8 or 9 bulls on the unit during my moms rifle deer hunt on there this year...but they were always running. The rifle hunt on there is the only hunt worth hunting when it comes to elk. A lot of people hunt up on east fork around Tropic Reservoir, and even more people go four-wheeling up there. I saw several elk in the lower areas around mill creek. As far as hunting on water, try a different unit. I would recommend on of the following units. But remember that the state really isn't going to screw up the archery elk too bad, I think they are going to take away like 10 days in August and move it a few days closer to the rut. Personally I like the idea, because the elk are hard to get near in August...but some people get really lucky and get one in the velvet.
With four points your buddy could draw Cache North, Central Mountains Nebo, South Slope Diamond Mountain and the Pauns.
Personally I would go for Nebo, then Cache North. I live in Logan, and saw most of the elk on the Cache South this year, but there are some on the North. Nebo gave out 31 archery elk tags last season for a reason, there are a lot of elk.
I would do Nebo if your buddy doesn't want to wait any longer.
Dillon