Pauns
- Thread starter DIY
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Ticks N Tines
Very Active Member
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I have 20 resident points and still can't draw.
WesternSky
Active Member
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- 531
Based on 23 odds, you needed 24 points to draw an archery tag let alone the rifle or muzz. I bet your 15 years away from drawing considering point creep.
BrowningRage
Long Time Member
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- 4,607
Unfortunately, if you have 20 points, that means in the 2024 draw you had 19 points, correct?
Reality Check: There are 46 people ahead of your point pool just for the Archery tag, and with only 2 bonus tags, it'll take 23 years to eliminate all of them. There are 34 ahead of you for a muzzy tag (17 years), and like 220 for rifle (4 tags= 55 year wait).
You have to look at that tag as a total lottery win, and should never expect to draw any of them except for the 1 or 3 random tags (which odds are 1 in thousands). However, it looks like you are very close to a Management Tag. 50/50 in 2026 if all things remain the same as this year's draw.
Reality Check: There are 46 people ahead of your point pool just for the Archery tag, and with only 2 bonus tags, it'll take 23 years to eliminate all of them. There are 34 ahead of you for a muzzy tag (17 years), and like 220 for rifle (4 tags= 55 year wait).
You have to look at that tag as a total lottery win, and should never expect to draw any of them except for the 1 or 3 random tags (which odds are 1 in thousands). However, it looks like you are very close to a Management Tag. 50/50 in 2026 if all things remain the same as this year's draw.
Tikka
Long Time Member
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- 5,390
Beat me to it…
