Odds Data Formula

[Ticks N Tines]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-07-12 AT 08:04AM (MST)[p]I'm really confused, How do I get the DWR ratios into Success percentages? See attached, first page is Raw DWR data and second is translated somehow into percentages.

 

[WesternSky]

10 points 2 applied for 2 tags, statistical odds 1in 1,percentage odds 2/2=100%
9 points 17 applied for 9 tags statistical odds 1 in 1.9, percentage 9/17 or 1/1.9 =52.94%

 

[ElkManDan]

For the regular draw odds % you have to figure out how many points total there are for everyone that put in for this tag that did not get the bonus permits.
So in this case here there were 8 guys with 9 bonus points that didn't get the bonus tag so they each have 10 points in the drawing (Number of bonus points +1) so the guys with 9 points have a total of 80 chances at drawing. Using the table we get

9pts = 8 x 10 = 90
8pts = 25 x 9 = 225
7pts = 25 x 8 = 200
6pts = 30 x 7 = 210
5pts = 43 x 6 = 258
4pts = 33 x 5 = 165
3pts = 51 x 4 = 204
2pts = 61 x 3 = 183
1pt = 70 x 2 = 140
0pt = 69 x 1 = 69

So there is a total of 1744 points for 12 tags

Take the 1744 and divide it by the 12 tags and you get 145.33 So for each point you have (bonus point + 1) you have a 1 in 145.33 chance to draw or a .69% chance of drawing. So a guy with 0 bonus points has 1 point x .688% chance to draw

1pt = 2 x .688 = 1.38%
2pt = 3 x .688 = 2.07%
3pt = 4 x .688 = 2.76%.....and so forth

 

[sambo3006]

Thanks for the breakdown, ElkManDan!
The last column on the first table is completely worthless. I don't know why they bother with it. I've been crunching numbers to decide what hunt to apply for also. I've got 9 NR elk points and don't want to put in for archery, so I'm kind of in no man's land.


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