NR Mt. Emily Bow Elk 13 Points?

[Zim]

I am trying to figure out if I have a legit chance to draw Mt. Emily archery elk with 13 NR preference points. I checked that link someone posted and it looked like there were 4 in my pool that applied last year, but was that for 1 or 2 tags? And do outfitters get these this year? Thanks.

 

[lostinOregon]

Zim,

On the post below there is a link to the true Oregon draw odds. It is done by a guy names Ron Wold. It will tell you everything you want to know. It is the best explained odds site there is for any state. It tells you what the odds were last year and this year based on who applied and didn't draw and the trends.

Rich

 

[Zim]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-10-11 AT 10:20AM (MST)[p]I saw that link but I just don't trust anyone anymore after all the games played by SFW, tags taken for auction, and outfitter welfare. I didn't see any mention of that in the link below, so I wonder if they are real.

Also, I thought HF mentioned there was only one tag available to NR's, and it would be taken by outfitters in 2011. This chart claims the NR quota is 2. All I know right now is there were 4 NR's in my draw pool who applied for the tag last year. The one guy with more drew last year.

I thought more NR point savers would apply last year due to the fee increase.

 

[Zim]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-11 AT 01:33AM (MST)[p]Well I think I figured it out. If my figures are right, the total archery quota is 51 tags. So if 2 1/2% go to NR unguided and 2 1/2% go to outfitter welfare that would mean one tag for each are in the draw. So if nobody new applies and us same 4 apply that would be 2/4 draw = 50% chance.

However, the Oregon stat page still only specifies one NR permit? Is the other one hiding somewhere?

How is the outfitter draw handled? Is there a seperate draw, or do those sponsored just specify on the application? What happens to the outfitter tag if let's say none of us 4 specified outfitter sponsored? Big difference between a 25% chance and 50%.

 

[go4steelhd]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-11-11 AT 08:15AM (MST)[p]Only one tag will go to non res. for the regular draw. There are only two tags that can go non res. and one will go to the outfitters every year in Mt Emily. On elk its a max of 5% of the tags can go non res. of that half go to the outfitter pool for there own separate draw. Outfitters get one every year in Mt Emily for rifle and bow, and every other year for Walla Walla, and Wenaha rifle and bow. This year the outfitters are getting the Walla Walla and the Wenaha so a non resident has no chance of drawing them your only chance at the top three units is Mt Emily and since there is only one tag someone can cash out there points and change the odds that you have figured.

Good luck in the draw

 

[Zim]

OK so I guess the ODFG stat page automatically takes out any outfitter tags from showing on the table.

Do you know how those outfitter tags are distributed? I guess one of the other 3 guys in my pool could apply in their draw? If not I should have a 25% chance assuming no new applicants.

The Walla Walla note affects me too because I would be in the top draw pool there also.

 

[go4steelhd]

The outfitter draw has nothing to do with points in Oregon. The outfitters put in for areas they can hunt and its a random draw for the pool of tags. They find out what they draw and then they try to find a hunter to go on them. If a hunter goes on one of these it does not affect there points. Some of the outfitter tags go back into the regular draw, But the areas you are wanting to hunt almost never make it back to the regular draw.

 

[Zim]

OMG. Hunters with no points cut in line when those tags are issued?! Unbelievable. It's bad enough dishing out welfare, but that method makes them no less than auction/wealth tags as well. 10% to 5% to 2 1/2%. 1.25%? I wonder what's the next scheme to devalue points guys have waited in line 15 years to use.

 

[go4steelhd]

I understand your frustration but it has been this way since 1996. None of it is new and it was this way when you started apllying if you have 13 points. Also these units were not what they are today in the 90's before the change to spike only and low permit numbers for any bull. But I will say that when I started applying in Oregon if I had understud how the system was set up I would not have started putting in there. I don't think Most NR understand that in almost all units the only way you can draw is off points. None will come from the random draw unless it is a tag that draws with 0 points.

 

[northwesthunter]

I understand your pain, there are a lot of us wishing we hadn't started the points game in Oregon. It is pitiful how few tags Oregon gives to nonres and with the price increase they will feel the drop this year no doubt. Be glad you have as many points as you do and can draw in the next 3 years. I am 3 points behind you and want the same tag and who knows when I will get it. Hopefully the drop in nonres apps will push Oregon to raise the nonres tags to at least 1o% like other states and that will get us cycling thru. The outfitter tag is strictly a money maker for the outfitters(nothing against outfitters) but it does really screw up the odds from year to year. Good luck hope you draw soon.nwhunter

 

[Califelkslayer]

Wanna hear a bad example?? I applied my son for the Interstate late deer hunt when he was first old enough to apply. His last year to apply for the youth tag, he was in a pool with 2 others. I though, "Great! He has a 33.3% chance to draw what I thought was a great tag."

The tag went into the outfitters draw that year. He never really EVER had a chance to draw that tag cause he was born in a even numbered year.

 

[Romulus]

Zim, I am in the same boat as you with the same non res pts. For a while I was putting in for Wenaha and for several years I could have drawn Mt. Emily. Last year was the first year I put in for Mt. Emily and somebody jumped in ahead of us. Next year the same thing will probably happen. It surprises me that Oregon does not go to 10% non res quota because in a few years they will lose a lot of revenue. Deer is worse. 12 pts and nothing that looks to promising. Units like Mt Emily with 51 tags it seems to me like 5 non res tags would be reasonable and then some guys could draw without max pts. I think if most non res really knew how it worked they would not even put in. They think they could get lucky but they are not even in the draw. Good luck!

 

[Zim]

Romulus,

The thing is there appear to be only 34 guys saving points with 14+. Hafta believe most of those will be looking for a rifle tag. The really bad thing this year is Walla Walla & Weneha archery elk applicants from last year have no tag available this year (I think) so likely some will jump to Mt. Emily, and it only takes one to knock us both out of the box.

I think 2012 will be the next chance we have, because both the Walla Walla & Weneha NR tags will go back to unguided pool. By the way, did you notice we are now also in the top draw pool for Walla Walla? There were four 13 point holders there also. I bet some of them will be giving us company too this year.

Where do you live? I'm in Illinois. I have a good friend in Portland I'm hoping to visit if I ever draw.

 

[Buckhunter1]

Heck you might look into getting a outfitters license as they seem to draw some great tags every other year. BH1... might be cheaper in the long run.

 

[Zim]

>Zim, I am in the same
>boat as you with the
>same non res pts. For
>a while I was putting
>in for Wenaha and for
>several years I could have
>drawn Mt. Emily. Last year
>was the first year I
>put in for Mt. Emily
>and somebody jumped in ahead
>of us. Next year the
>same thing will probably happen.
>It surprises me that Oregon
>does not go to 10%
>non res quota because in
>a few years they will
>lose a lot of revenue.
>Deer is worse. 12 pts
>and nothing that looks to
>promising. Units like Mt Emily
>with 51 tags it seems
>to me like 5 non
>res tags would be reasonable
>and then some guys could
>draw without max pts. I
>think if most non res
>really knew how it worked
>they would not even put
>in. They think they could
>get lucky but they are
>not even in the draw.
>Good luck!

Romulus, Your odds just went up because I opted to apply for points only this year. Decided to apply for a NM elk unit with 100% draw odds (last year) so I knew I could hunt somewhere. Then drew a Wyoming moose tag so my schedule is full. Hope you get lucky and draw Mt. Emily this year.