Non Res Idaho Sheep odds

H

huntin100

Guest
Some say Idaho has good odds to draw bighorn sheep, because you have to buy $141.50 license and can only apply for one, sheep,moose,mountain goat or deer and elk.
Last year 1,037 non res applyed for Rocky tags. 5 Non res drew. All applicants res and non res are put into the draw together. No more than 10% of tags can go to non res. max 6 permits. The odds of drawing a non res sheep permit is less than 1/2 percent. At the cost of near 150 dollars with application and license fee. Can some one tell me how this is good odds? Especially considering the money it cost. Thanks
 
It's not. It hasn't been for years since they started limiting 10% to non-residents.

Shawn
 
If you compare to other states, Idaho odds aren't that bad even at .5%. However, it is actually much more confusing than that. I believe how it works is that you are put in with the residents. Then all tags are issued to the highest given numbers with only a max of 10% of tags allowed for the non-residents. That makes it hard to understand the odds completely.
 
I think there are some units with 1/30 to 1/50 odds, I think you would be hard pressed to find that in other states (especially if you don't have max points).

As far as the $150 goes--get used to it. Pretty much every western state has started to implement significant fees just to apply for high demand hunts. Montana is still quite reasonable--but I expect that to change soon.
 
At least in most other states you get a point for your license fee. I do realize like in Montana and Arizona it still may not help much.
 
huntin100,


You answered your own question! Yes the odds horrible but consider this fact, apply in as many states as possible. If there are 10 states that a non-resident can apply for, and you skip Idaho, you just decreased your odds 10%. Repeat to yourself, there are not any good draw odds for sheep. Good odds and sheep should not be in the same sentence IMO

Good Luck
Don
 
LAST EDITED ON Mar-31-08 AT 09:50PM (MST)[p]No state has good odds for drawing a sheep permit unless you are in the top points category somewhere. For someone fairly new to the game Idaho offers better odds than nearly every other state (again unless you have lots of points in other states).

I do not see the disadvantage of putting residents & non-residents in the same "barrel". If you look back of the draw odds the average is about 10% of tags each year to non-residents for a total of 7 or 8 tags:

2007 - 5 Rocky & 3 Cali
2006 - 6 Rocky & 2 Cali
2005 - 6 Rocky & 1 Cali
2004 - 5 Rocky & 2 Cali
2003 - 6 Rocky & 1 Cali

So in 2007 there were 1037 non resident apps and 5 rocky permits which is 1:207 and for Cali's 234 non resident apps for 3 permits which is 1 in 78. If someone was just wanting to get into the sheep draw game who else offers those odds? Not the ones I apply for in NM, CA, OR, MT, WA, UT, or AZ.

I've heard of people suggesting Idaho designate non-resident units but that will not increase odds either. All that would do is move the 1271 non resident apps to the same units. As it is now you can draw any unit you want if your number comes up early--that includes the best Rocky AND Cali units.

I think for non-residents if you want to increase your odds avoid applying for unit 11 (yes I know it has the biggest rams). As I understand the draw only one of the two permits for unit 11 can go to a non-resident. In 2007 447 non-residents applied for unit 11. Once one of those apps gets selected (I would imagine VERY early in the draw process with such high app numbers) those other 446 are out of the draw. So now there are 4 rocky permits left for non-residents and 590 non-resident rocky apps left. That puts your odds at 1:147.5.

Yup, its expensive and the odds suck but I still think its one of the better states.

Come on ID send me that 11 permit!

ramslam
 
Oh --No... two years in a row the same thread.... I have found that if a state p*sses me off about something..then I take advantage of my Freedom of Choice and do not apply there...and I do not anymore.

Next thing ya know some one will be crying for some kind of point system in Idaho and then they will really put the screwing to ya...for years and years 'till I draw in the future with X amount of points'...

Greg--just don't apply there....no more stress .....just a thought?

Robb
 
Its almost like he is throwing those numbers out there to scare off potental and current hopefuls....just a thought....weed out some of the wanna-bees
 
There are no good odds when it comes to drawing a sheep tag. The unfortunate fact is that most who apply as NR's will never draw in any state.
I, like many others, badly wanted to hunt a bighorn sheep. With the exception of applying for the Montana unlimited areas, I put in for the best draw odds available. That led me to apply for a California Bighorn tag in Idaho. I drew and killed a ram in 2006. It really comes down to how bad you want to hunt sheep in the lower 48.
 
Thanks for the feedback. Ramslam, did a good job of giving approx non res odds. Robb is correct. I did do a similar post last year.
I did'nt apply for sheep last year In Idaho. I apply for about 6 states. I subscribe to a magazine that has listed great odds. I like this magazine and their services. I have been a member for several years. I called them last year and said that they are not true odds for non residents. They added non res and res applications together and divided them by the number of tags to get their odds. They don't specify that they are non res odds. Just odds. Some states they specify non res odds. It's impossible to do this for Idaho, because there are NO non res tags.
This magazine has great odds listed such as one in four for unit 27-1. Yes, 25% chance to draw a sheep tag. So, spend 150 dollars and apply and you have a 25% chance of drawing a sheep tag right! Maybe if your a res. Not even close if your a non res.
Last year there was 654 res who drew 56 tags. YES, good odds for sheep. Last year 1,037 Non res applied for a chance of 6 tags. After the first 6 of these non res draw an available tag, the remaining non res have no chance of drawing any unit. Even if it's the best odds of drawing that unit. I did'nt know this until a couple years ago.
I'm not saying we need a bonus point system in Idaho. I just wanted to let people know the approx true odds for non res.

Having 6 non res tags for rockys, you would know the true odds.

I'm likly not going to spend 150 dollars for a 1 in 200 chance of drawing. I may have my boy put in for a hunt.
Anyway I have this sheep fever illness, and have limited money. Maybe someday, I'll get lucky. Thanks, and good luck in the draws. Greg
 
No doubt Greg it all is quite discouraging. And I, like you, have to draw the line somewhere because it is getting outragously expensive.

What I hope many realize from your post is that unit odds mean nothing. I'm not sure what magazine you are referring to but to look at a unit and say there are 10 permits and 60 apps does not mean 1:6 odds in Idaho.

Good luck in the draws everyone! I'm already feeling lucky with the AZ antelope tag in hand so I doubt a sheep tag will be in the mail to me!

Glen
 
Real informative post Greg.

It is so screwy and discouraging that I have gotten to the point of just going for the unit I prefer to have a tag in and sending in the $$ or hitting 'submit' and then just go onto the next state sheep application when it is due....

Similar to what Glen said, I am feeling all my MOJO has been used up this year with a Wyo elk and Az. elk tags in hand for this fall....

No need for me to be all greedy....share the MOJO with some one else...!

Robb
 
Robb, Congrats on your elk tags. My boy drew a Wyoming elk, and will draw deer also. My dad should draw Utah elk. A cuz who has health issues should draw limited entry deer in Utah. I told him I would help him out. I just put in for points in AZ, did'nt want 3 elk hunts in one year. I could always find time for a sheep hunt however. Good luck! We want to see pictures.
 
I also think it doesn't make sense to apply if you don't need the license to go elk or deer hunting.

If you don't need the license, I feel it's worth applying in Colorado, Montana and New Mexico, because you don't have to buy it.

Then if you buy the license to hunt or to apply for other species, you can apply in Oregon, Arizona, Utah and Idaho.

If you really want to hunt sheep, save all that application money ( 1000$ a year I guess ), get a side job, save for 10 years and go in BC. I'm going in September 2010. I know hunt prices are increasing but so are application prices. How much will it take to apply everywhere in 10 years ?
 
Just an interesting note.

Units 27-1, 27-2,27-3,27-4 had 89 res applications drew 21 permits. 23.5% draw odds.

124 Non res that applied for the same 21 tags ZERO DREW. Why? More non res applied than res for 21 tags. The odds would say more non res names were pulled for these units than res. Since more non res applicants. However, the non res quota was filled, after, 3 Cal big horn and 5 rocky permits were drawn. No way to know the true odds for non res. I think ramslam is close at 1 in 200. Good luck. I know what your odds are if you don't apply.
 
I suspect mag was huntin fool, I too subscribe and like it. I gave them a hard time in the past and I was wrong and they called me and were very nice and professional despite the fact they had the right to be pissed as heck. I was impressed and when I realized my error apologized.

Any way, if you notice they always say how they calculate odds and that they are not true odds. With this disclaimer I feel they are ok with what they say.

Do I wish they said man your odds stink? Yes I do! I wish they skewed odds so they looked bad but that is so less apply and my odds go up. Purely selfish. However they are a buisiness and if I were them I would do the same thing. They make money off applying guys and selling odds book, not a lot of money to make if you say "it sucks good luck"!

I applied to Idaho for mnt goat once, first year they allowed cc's I researched carefully and picked a hunt with good odds, did not draw and when odds came out I decided the price it cost was not worth it. I have not applied to Idaho since. It is long odds exactly as you described. You can up odds by picking units with good NR and res odds since both affect you.

Good luck

I too agree ignorance is bliss!
 
It's always been a mystery to me how they draw the non-resident tags huntin100. If you look at it closely, certain areas consistently draw each year while others never draw non-residents. I wish I knew if there was an order they drew them from or could figure out what unit you should put in for. Maybe someone knows the process in and out and can tell us why certain units consistently draw while others don't. Seems too non-random at this point.

Shawn
 
Don, The reason why I did this post is to let other hunters know what I just found out a couple yrs ago. I am a member of huntin fool. I don't have any beef with them. They have a good service. They do usually say when it's non res odds and just odds. Hunting is getting expensive if you apply to several states. Salmon f&G did a good job last year trying to explain odds. Just wanted non res to know approx odds, and how the draw system works, so they can make an educated decision for themself. There are no good non res odds to draw a rifle sheep tag in a decent area. Idaho may be better than most states, but still not good odds. And expensive license, if you don't plan on hunting deer or elk.
 
Thanks for remembering the post from last year. Maybe a quick recap will be helpful.

Using Rockies for an example

1. There is an overall NR cap of up to 10% of all Rocky tags combined (i.e., 6 of 61 in 2008). And no more than 1 NR per hunt(so 2 NRs cannot be drawn as a party).

2. It is true that it is not possible to calculate exact odds, particularly for nonresidents. But you can make some approximations that may be useful.

3. The draw is conducted by looking at all applications and going through the applicants' first choices. When an NR application comes up, the following questions are "asked:" a. is there a tag remaining for that hunt? if yes, b. has the overall NR cap been reached? if not, c. has the NR cap for the hunt been reached? if no, then that would be the one NR permit issued for that hunt.

In 2008 there are 21 Rocky hunts with 61 permits. NR's can draw up to 6 tags and they will be in 6 different hunts . Because NR applications far outnumber resident (2-3 times more NRs), the maximum is normally reached. At least 15 hunts will have no NR hunters. Which hunts they are depends entirely on the applicant's random numbers and their hunt choices. When you look at applicant numbers and where NRs draw, it tends to be the hunts with the most NR applicants, which makes sense, because with higher numbers of applicants it's more likely some one of the NRs would draw a low enough number. So hunts 11 and 36B more consistently have a NR permit because more NRs put in for them. But, personally, I don't think I'd equate that to better draw odds as an individual putting in. In unit 11, 1 NR of 447 drew in 2007 - it was likely some NR would draw because they out-applied residents by 5.5 to 1 and almost 45% of all the NR applications were for that particular hunt. But in this best case scenario, odds for an individual were around 0.2%. The other way it could work is 2 residents drawn before a NR application comes up, so no NR tag issued.

Hope this helps some.

Tom Keegan
IDFG Salmon Region Wildlife Manager
 
Tom,

Thanks for the info. I drew a non-res tag my second year applying in Idaho. I was playing what I thought were great odds in the sheep world. I'm going for my second tag this year. I think you guys are over analyzing it. The license fee is your opportunity to put a chance in the hat. JB
 
Idaho nonresident sheep draw odds used to be really good in some units (I drew 20-2 in 99, at about 1:10 nonresident draw odds) before the 10% cap, and it was 1 nonresident tag per unit. Now the 10% nonresident cap will likely be met before the really good draw odds in some units come into play. I'm done with rockies and Mtn. goat in Idaho now, so I'll do either CA bighorn or moose in years I intend to hunt ID for elk/deer anyway. Not sure the draw odds today would be worth the $150 nonrefundable license just for the shot at that to me, but they might be to you, depending on your situation. And like PleaseDear said, buy it if you think it is worth it. Vote with your wallet. I do not think ID advertises them as good draw odds, but some hunter services might....
 
Elmer,
I agree, I drew 20-1 in 04. I now know why NR stay out of there. You need to make an informed decision. There is more info to be found out there other than say Carters, which I subscrib to. I stopped applying for deer,elk, and antelope as I never drew.If I apply and don't draw another sheep tag I will go over the counter for whitetail. Did it once before and netted a 160 whitetail. JB
 
JB48,
I know what you mean about tough hunting. I got lucky and got mine, a good mature 7.5 year old heavily broomed ram on the last day of the season. I took a shot farther than I normally would have, but it was desperation at that point. I lost over 25 pounds on that trip, did it solo and backpacking. I was weak for weeks after. The guys at work kidded me about having AIDS. The other hunter that year was a hunting guide in the area, and he did not fill his tag. I talked to the biologist who had the tag the year before, he spent three weeks and did not get one. He checked my ram on the way out, and just told me congratulations, it is rare for an unguided nonresident to get one there. If I had known where to start, and just stuck to the small area with rams, it would have been easier. But they were timbered up, and I did not have enough patience. Anyway, be a bit careful about the Idaho sheep hunts you apply for, there is some really tough sheep hunting.
 
Wow EF., congrat's that is a heck of a hunt!

I remember reading about a hunt I think Dwight Schu did in Idaho (sheep), tough long hunt. Finally got into rams (after 2nd week I think), his buddy had a rifle and got one and asked Dwight if he wanted to use the rifle (there was another ram with the group), he said no and kept after it with bow, never scored.

That would not have happened with me, I would have taken the rifle from my buddy already!
 
Mdbrown,

20-1 was tough. I learned a lot and know how I would do it next time. I spent 10 days up high with 5 friends 1 sheep seen by all. Took a week off and got dropped off on the river.I saw my first sheep in the unit on day 17. 2 biologist aged it one said 8 and another told me 9.
 
I drew a rocky tag waited 3 years and am applying for Cali. A resident who helped me, drew the Cali tag the first year he could apply after he drew his rocky tag.

Brymoore didn't you draw last year on the Salmon?
 
Sorry, just semantics. I apply for CA's on ocassion too, just would consider that a completely different hunt, not doing it again.
 
LAST EDITED ON Apr-08-08 AT 04:15PM (MST)[p]>I drew a rocky tag waited
>3 years and am applying
>for Cali. A resident who
>helped me, drew the Cali
>tag the first year he
>could apply after he drew
>his rocky tag.
>
>Brymoore didn't you draw last year
>on the Salmon?


Yep. I drew first try. I spent 15 days straight in the unit backpacking. I saw enough sheep to keep it interesting but didn't see any mature rams until day 14. I saw them in the early afternoon, hiked up hill for 3 1/2 hours but couldn't find them in the remaining day light. I went back into the same area the next day but couldn't find them. I was physically spent by then and flew out that evening. It took about two months before my core body strength returned.

I can't wait to go back.
 
The biggest problem is that the rams are often timbered up early, and there is always smoke from fires making glassing tough during the day. The rams are in little patches, not evenly dispersed. So you have to know enough to know where to look and just stick with it for how long it takes. That takes more patience than a guy who really does not know the area usually has. Just a bit after the season is over, they will be on the rivernanks just looking at you, and easy to find.
 
LAST EDITED ON Apr-09-08 AT 10:55AM (MST)[p]>That is some tough country. Did
>you go alone? On myhunt
>I saw my first sheep
>on day 17.

I had a buddy with me for the first 7 days, spent the rest of the time by myself. I hunted the last two weeks of October, a beautiful time to be in the Salmon drainage.

All the sheep I saw were in the timber.
 
WOW, elmer and Bryan it sounds like you really hunted hard. Not only is it a tough draw but a tough hunt in many areas. Lots of good memories. I have hunted goats in Idaho with a cousin and it was a easy hunt. Shot his goat 300 yards from the horse trail.
 

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