NM Full up Front Fee Odds

[ElmerFudd]

I remember there was speculation as to what the full fee up front would do to NM draw odds. Noticed they posted. Looks like it dropped about 1/3 of the nonresidents out, no effect on residents. Looks like a roughly even split of about 2500 nonresidents and residents now, roughly 5000 total applicants. I think there were like 4000 nonresidents last year, for 6500 or so total. Last year's numbers are from my somewhat unreliable memory A bit better, but still poor odds.....Not sure if it would be worth putting on credit now that the credit reforms and higher interest rates are in effect

 

[ColoradoOak]

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but I see a much greater drop.

Residents:
2008 - 4,129
2009 - 2,488
Decrease: 40%

Non-residents:
2008 - 5,609
2009 - 2,376
Decrease: 58%

What am I doing wrong?

 

[ElmerFudd]

If you actually saved the sheet from last year and sre looking at it, it should be more reliable than my memory Thought I qualified that.....

 

[ridgerunner]

with the higher application fees for NR this year, more will be dropping I'm sure, $27 per species with bad draw odds and no points is going to be passed on by a lot of guys this year, probably myself included.

 

[califhuntn]

I'm curious to see how the sheep applicants dropped with something like $3000 up front.

JR

 

[pirogue]

>I'm curious to see how the
>sheep applicants dropped with something
>like $3000 up front.
>
>JR


I thought that was what the numbers above were, since it was not up front for deer and elk.

 

[ElmerFudd]

Doubt this year's application fee increase has any effect. Desert sheep has real long odds, the rocky in the 1:500-700 range. Really not a lot worse than most other states. The nonrefundable fee is still relatively low, even with the interest if you have to borrow it's cheaper than average to apply.

I really like the no points deal....You can just chose to do it when you can. And you can't really expect to draw ever....Points really are only fair (like a wait for your turn deal) for stuff that rolls over in a relatively short period compared to a person's life.