NMChem
Member
- Messages
- 77
NM 2017 Draw Odds Posted
- Thread starter NMChem
- Start date
5yearcoueshunter
Active Member
- Messages
- 772
Thanks!
Quick glance, odds were tougher for my hunt choices this year. Guess that's why I didn't draw anything. haha
Interesting that there were still quite a few muzzle-loader deer hunts that went under-prescribed, yet they aren't on the leftover list. Example Unit 23. Rio, any insights on that?
Travis
Quick glance, odds were tougher for my hunt choices this year. Guess that's why I didn't draw anything. haha
Interesting that there were still quite a few muzzle-loader deer hunts that went under-prescribed, yet they aren't on the leftover list. Example Unit 23. Rio, any insights on that?
Travis
NMBOWHNTR27
Active Member
- Messages
- 343
Interesting as always thanks for posting! My odds didn't really change. I was just on the wrong side of luck.
BUGLEnmIN
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,982
>Thanks!
>
>Quick glance, odds were tougher for
>my hunt choices this year.
> Guess that's why I
>didn't draw anything. haha
>
>Interesting that there were still quite
>a few muzzle-loader deer hunts
>that went under-prescribed, yet they
>aren't on the leftover list.
>Example Unit 23. Rio,
>any insights on that?
>
>Travis
Yep,22 & 23 are now predator pits and the deer herds suck down there. Before someone sees this and posts a pic of a nice buck and bla bla it's a hard hunt now and very few bucks are found. Much less mature ones I did see one of the bigger books I saw on the whole season in Unit 23 last year
>
>Quick glance, odds were tougher for
>my hunt choices this year.
> Guess that's why I
>didn't draw anything. haha
>
>Interesting that there were still quite
>a few muzzle-loader deer hunts
>that went under-prescribed, yet they
>aren't on the leftover list.
>Example Unit 23. Rio,
>any insights on that?
>
>Travis
Yep,22 & 23 are now predator pits and the deer herds suck down there. Before someone sees this and posts a pic of a nice buck and bla bla it's a hard hunt now and very few bucks are found. Much less mature ones I did see one of the bigger books I saw on the whole season in Unit 23 last year
I thought that the left over tag spreadsheet looked small this year, but unless I am reading this report wrong it appears that NM Game and Fish left out a lot of available tags. For example:
DER 2-222 - Archery Coues Whitetail in 23 outside of the Burros. This hunt ALWAYS has had left over tags in it. According to the report "Post Draw Success" out of the 150 tags available only 27 tags where given out. However, this hunt is not listed on the left-over spreadsheet. 123 tags should be available.
I see a couple of other archery deer hunts that are the same way.
It sure appears that this year people seemed to figure out how to apply for hunts to take advantage of those hunts that have had years of leftovers. I imagine that next years draw will be even more difficult.
Jeff
DER 2-222 - Archery Coues Whitetail in 23 outside of the Burros. This hunt ALWAYS has had left over tags in it. According to the report "Post Draw Success" out of the 150 tags available only 27 tags where given out. However, this hunt is not listed on the left-over spreadsheet. 123 tags should be available.
I see a couple of other archery deer hunts that are the same way.
It sure appears that this year people seemed to figure out how to apply for hunts to take advantage of those hunts that have had years of leftovers. I imagine that next years draw will be even more difficult.
Jeff
I believe that on average 85% of tags go to residents, 5% go to DIY Non-Resident and 10% go to anyone who is applying through an outfitter. I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong. Assuming that is correct, and assuming you did not apply through an outfitter you were in the running for 5% of the overall number of tags:
Total Tags for Ibex Muzzleloader: 25
85% go to Residents: 21
5% to DIY Non-Resident: 2
10% to those using outfitter 3
This appears they actually gave 1 extra tag somewhere along the way. All of these numbers came from the "Post-Draw Success" side of the spreadsheet.
To really break it down, and show how little chance that means for everyone you look at the "Pre-Draw Application" side that shows how many people applied in each category:
Total Tags for Ibex Muzzleloader: 25
Total Resident Applicants: 2,451
Total Non-Resident Applications: 649
Total To those using outfitter: 677
Sooooooo you along with 648 other people applied for the 2 tags that were given out to non-residents for this particular hunt.
Those numbers are the combined 1st, 2nd, 3rd choice options, but you can see that all tags are given out to 1st choice applicants. What this means is it is a waste of time to list a 2nd and 3rd choice for Ibex because the tags are all gone before they get to the "2nd Choice" people. I imagine this logic works for all of the low tag number hunts such as Oryx, Big Horn Sheep, etc.
Hope that helped some.
Jeff
Total Tags for Ibex Muzzleloader: 25
85% go to Residents: 21
5% to DIY Non-Resident: 2
10% to those using outfitter 3
This appears they actually gave 1 extra tag somewhere along the way. All of these numbers came from the "Post-Draw Success" side of the spreadsheet.
To really break it down, and show how little chance that means for everyone you look at the "Pre-Draw Application" side that shows how many people applied in each category:
Total Tags for Ibex Muzzleloader: 25
Total Resident Applicants: 2,451
Total Non-Resident Applications: 649
Total To those using outfitter: 677
Sooooooo you along with 648 other people applied for the 2 tags that were given out to non-residents for this particular hunt.
Those numbers are the combined 1st, 2nd, 3rd choice options, but you can see that all tags are given out to 1st choice applicants. What this means is it is a waste of time to list a 2nd and 3rd choice for Ibex because the tags are all gone before they get to the "2nd Choice" people. I imagine this logic works for all of the low tag number hunts such as Oryx, Big Horn Sheep, etc.
Hope that helped some.
Jeff
5yearcoueshunter
Active Member
- Messages
- 772
>I thought that the left over
>tag spreadsheet looked small this
>year, but unless I am
>reading this report wrong it
>appears that NM Game and
>Fish left out a lot
>of available tags. For
>example:
>
>DER 2-222 - Archery Coues Whitetail
>in 23 outside of the
>Burros. This hunt ALWAYS
>has had left over tags
>in it. According to
>the report "Post Draw Success"
>out of the 150 tags
>available only 27 tags where
>given out. However, this
>hunt is not listed on
>the left-over spreadsheet. 123
>tags should be available.
>
>I see a couple of other
>archery deer hunts that are
>the same way.
>
>It sure appears that this year
>people seemed to figure out
>how to apply for hunts
>to take advantage of those
>hunts that have had years
>of leftovers. I imagine
>that next years draw will
>be even more difficult.
>
>Jeff
It appears that unit 23 & 24 were taken out of the leftover list for Bow and Muzzle-loader even though there were plenty available. If this was done due to concern of the deer herd in those units as earlier suggested, then it sounds like they need to decrease the tag allotment next year.
>tag spreadsheet looked small this
>year, but unless I am
>reading this report wrong it
>appears that NM Game and
>Fish left out a lot
>of available tags. For
>example:
>
>DER 2-222 - Archery Coues Whitetail
>in 23 outside of the
>Burros. This hunt ALWAYS
>has had left over tags
>in it. According to
>the report "Post Draw Success"
>out of the 150 tags
>available only 27 tags where
>given out. However, this
>hunt is not listed on
>the left-over spreadsheet. 123
>tags should be available.
>
>I see a couple of other
>archery deer hunts that are
>the same way.
>
>It sure appears that this year
>people seemed to figure out
>how to apply for hunts
>to take advantage of those
>hunts that have had years
>of leftovers. I imagine
>that next years draw will
>be even more difficult.
>
>Jeff
It appears that unit 23 & 24 were taken out of the leftover list for Bow and Muzzle-loader even though there were plenty available. If this was done due to concern of the deer herd in those units as earlier suggested, then it sounds like they need to decrease the tag allotment next year.
ORIONTHEHUNTER
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,745
so you had a .003% chance at that ibex tag
ORIONTHEHUNTER
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,745
Yeah it sucks they took so many tags from the non-resident DIY pool and put them in the outfitter pool
ORIONTHEHUNTER
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,745
Your right the DIY non-resident should have only gotten 1.25 tags. If there is one tag per 324 applicants that gives you .0031 percent chance of drawing.
NMChem
Member
- Messages
- 77
I started the thread and coincidentally drew one of the Ibex Muzzleloader resident tags on a second choice....
This should clear it up.
Tag allocation. 84% go to residents, 10% outfitter sponsored hunters, 6% non-residents. Game and Fish often does some rounding since they cannot give partial tags. There are established rules for this allocation process. I've seen them, but have no idea how to find them now.
For this hunt allocated tags (from the table) were...21 residents, 3 outfitter, 2 non-res.
For this hunt it is very possible to draw the muzz tag on a second choice. In fact 18 of the 26 successful applications drew. And the 2 non-res tags went to 2nd choice applicants. All this is clear in the table.
For the more difficult question, accurate drawing odds. For non-res there were 2 available tags and 649 applications (all choices). If one does the "simple" odds, where all choices are considered, and practically speaking they are not, that is =2/649 or .00308 or 0.308%.
NMChem
This should clear it up.
Tag allocation. 84% go to residents, 10% outfitter sponsored hunters, 6% non-residents. Game and Fish often does some rounding since they cannot give partial tags. There are established rules for this allocation process. I've seen them, but have no idea how to find them now.
For this hunt allocated tags (from the table) were...21 residents, 3 outfitter, 2 non-res.
For this hunt it is very possible to draw the muzz tag on a second choice. In fact 18 of the 26 successful applications drew. And the 2 non-res tags went to 2nd choice applicants. All this is clear in the table.
For the more difficult question, accurate drawing odds. For non-res there were 2 available tags and 649 applications (all choices). If one does the "simple" odds, where all choices are considered, and practically speaking they are not, that is =2/649 or .00308 or 0.308%.
NMChem
ORIONTHEHUNTER
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,745
so how are so many of these tags getting pulled 2nd choice. Are they getting pulled before everyone that had that hunt as a 1st choice or is there something else going on? Whatever the deal New Mexicos odds are ridiculously low for DIY non-residents.
JRABQ
Active Member
- Messages
- 883
LAST EDITED ON Jun-17-17 AT 11:36AM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jun-17-17 AT 11:35?AM (MST)
The people that drew the mzl as 2nd choice almost certainly had the even harder to draw hunt (the rifle OIL hunt) as their 1st choice. It is no surprise, as you should order your hunt choices that way, unless you only want to hunt mzl for some reason (or already drew your OIL tag).
The people that drew the mzl as 2nd choice almost certainly had the even harder to draw hunt (the rifle OIL hunt) as their 1st choice. It is no surprise, as you should order your hunt choices that way, unless you only want to hunt mzl for some reason (or already drew your OIL tag).
ORIONTHEHUNTER
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 1,745
So does New Mexico go by species then weapon when they conduct the draw. Therefore they are looking at rifle app first choices before they look at muzzle or archery first choices
NMChem
Member
- Messages
- 77
Short answer is no. Clipped from NMDGF...
How New Mexico?s Draw Works
Updated 12-08-2016
New Mexico?s big game drawing is subject to a quota system. In accordance with state law, the draw attempts to distribute a minimum of 84 percent of the licenses for each hunt to New Mexico residents, 10 percent to residents or nonresidents who've contracted with an outfitter and 6 percent to nonresidents who have not contracted with an outfitter (this does not prohibit nonresidents in the 6 percent pool from contracting with an outfitter if they are lucky in the draw).
All drawing applications are randomly assigned a sequence number. A computer program then examines each application in the sequence in its entirety, prior to moving on to the next application. When an application is examined, the computer attempts to fulfill the first hunt choice, subject to the quotas described above. If the first hunt choice is already filled, the computer will try to assign the second choice to that application, then the third choice.
If the quota for all applicant drawing pools has been filled for all three choices, the system will not issue a license(s) and will move on to the next application. Residents who apply with one or more nonresidents will be issued a license only if there are licenses available for both the resident and nonresident pools.
After all deer and elk applications have been examined, a second drawing distributes any remaining deer and elk licenses to those who designate a fourth choice on their application. Only those willing to accept ANY deer or elk license should indicate a fourth choice. An elk hunter drawing a fourth choice could receive a license for an antlerless bag limit, even if their first three choices were for bull licenses. The fourth-choice assignment will always be for the same sporting arm type as the first choice on the application.
Because the order of an application in the sequence is the determining factor in drawing success, it is possible for an applicant to receive a license for his or her second or third choice before a first choice applicant for the same hunt is even considered. The earlier in the drawing sequence an application is, the better the chances that a first, second or third choice hunt will still be available.
How New Mexico?s Draw Works
Updated 12-08-2016
New Mexico?s big game drawing is subject to a quota system. In accordance with state law, the draw attempts to distribute a minimum of 84 percent of the licenses for each hunt to New Mexico residents, 10 percent to residents or nonresidents who've contracted with an outfitter and 6 percent to nonresidents who have not contracted with an outfitter (this does not prohibit nonresidents in the 6 percent pool from contracting with an outfitter if they are lucky in the draw).
All drawing applications are randomly assigned a sequence number. A computer program then examines each application in the sequence in its entirety, prior to moving on to the next application. When an application is examined, the computer attempts to fulfill the first hunt choice, subject to the quotas described above. If the first hunt choice is already filled, the computer will try to assign the second choice to that application, then the third choice.
If the quota for all applicant drawing pools has been filled for all three choices, the system will not issue a license(s) and will move on to the next application. Residents who apply with one or more nonresidents will be issued a license only if there are licenses available for both the resident and nonresident pools.
After all deer and elk applications have been examined, a second drawing distributes any remaining deer and elk licenses to those who designate a fourth choice on their application. Only those willing to accept ANY deer or elk license should indicate a fourth choice. An elk hunter drawing a fourth choice could receive a license for an antlerless bag limit, even if their first three choices were for bull licenses. The fourth-choice assignment will always be for the same sporting arm type as the first choice on the application.
Because the order of an application in the sequence is the determining factor in drawing success, it is possible for an applicant to receive a license for his or her second or third choice before a first choice applicant for the same hunt is even considered. The earlier in the drawing sequence an application is, the better the chances that a first, second or third choice hunt will still be available.
New Mexico Guides & Outfitters
H & A Outfitters
Private and public land hunts since 1992 for elk, mule deer, sheep, pronghorn, black Bear & lion hunts.
505 Outfitters
Public and private land big game hunts. Rifle, muzzleloader and archery hunts available. Free Draw Application Service!
Sierra Blanca Outfitters
Offering a wide array of hunt opportunities and putting clients in prime position to bag a trophy.
Urge 2 Hunt
Hunts in New Mexico on private ranches and remote public land in the top units. Elk vouchers available.
Mangas Outfitters
Landowner tags available! Hunt big bulls and bucks. Any season and multiple hunt units to choose from.