New Mexico's Draw Odds

[JFWRC]

New Mexico's draw is pretty unique in that it is about as pure of lottery as it gets in that a random number is assigned to an app at the beginning of draw. The lower the random number assignment, the better your odds of 1)getting a tag and 2)getting one of your first or second choices. Should your random number be at the back of the pack, you BEST have a choice, e.g. your third choice, that has decent odds of having a tag to hunt elk in NM. If you don't care whether you draw or not, go for all low odds choices hoping you get a low random number. If you do want to hunt antelope in NM, have a decent (25% or better)odd choice as number 3.

We counsel many folks on NM hunting. We know the units, we know the densities, we study success rates, we know the topography, we talk to the biologist, we talk to the district game and fish officers, we talk to guides, and we talk to both non-residents and residents Better than that we've hunted in most all of the state.

Its mind blowing to me on how many folks believe HF as the Gospel. I get so many calls from individuals that say well HF says this and that. I'm here to tell you that all is not perfect in this world and their gospel is a guide, not fact. I am glad they do not mention a couple of units that we know are better than what they report or completely left out. They sell memberships and they are good at it. I'm glad they are successful, that's what America is all about.

As an example, their issue says its ok for NR's and Residents to apply on the same app. That is correct. What it doesn't go on to say is what happens when there is not a tag for the NR in their pool and there is a tag in the Res pool. Well, its simple, the app gets tossed. It works vice versa. If there is not a tag in that pool for that applicant, the whole app is wasted.

It does not talk about how having a 3-4 group app is affected by the number of tags available. I've talked to a group that have applied for the Sargent 1st choice for several years. There is no way they can win on that choice, not enough tags, wasted choice.

We talk to folks who put a high odd choices 1st and low odd choices second and third. If the tag is available for their first choice, the second and third are wasted. That's Ok if they clearly know what they are doing.

As as the draw odds are concerned, I hope you will use Brain's MM link. Are there issues that can't be explained from a statistical standpoint, yes!. The random number is pretty much impossible to predict. However, this method when employed in a best (low odd), next best (sl better than low odd), and I really want to go app (decent odds) format will in my opinion get your closest to the right chances of drawing.

Randy Newberg, with On Your Own Adventures uses the same method, and believe me, Randy does his homework!

Thank you for reading this far. It was good therapy for me

Jimbo

 

[BigFin]

As Jim mentioned, for our TV show, we use the odds that are published by Jon Crump of Hunters Trailhead, who is the group that provides the odds here for MM.

I talk to Jon a lot. He is on the mark when it comes to this stuff. I know Jon posts here, also. He probably can add more to the ideas of the NM system than anyone.

The Hunters Trailhead odds posted here on MM are the best I know of. I subscribe to all the research services, and none of them have odds spelled out as well as Jon has them for MM.

I'm kind of glad the other groups post the odds the way they do. They are askew, and cause people to make some pretty bad uses of their second and third choices, if they rely on what some services post the odds to be.

Given how complicated somes states' drawing processes are, such as looking at all three choices in NM, all five choices in NV (and squaring your poins), or the first two choices in AZ, it is impossible to get exact statistical data from the information the states publish about the prior year's drawing results.

The odds here on MM give the best trend data of any. It also shows you how many people have applied for tags as the first, second, or third choice. That gives you a feel of whether or not you have even a remote choice of drawing that hunt as your second or third choice.

Here is another link to the NMF&G site that is very helpful. I know some other guys who use this sheet for a big resource. It tells you how many people actually drew on the second or third choice, which gives some idea of whether or not there are any tags left to be drawn as second or third choice.

http://www.wildlife.state.nm.us/recreation/hunting/index.htm

Go to the drawing odds reports on the right hand side of the screen. Click on the link that says "2009-2010 Complete Report - XLS."

You need to know how to use Excel, and it really helps to have the prior year proclomation, which you can download on that page. The hunt codes change from year to year, so having last year's proclomation will help you see what hunt code relates to the hunt you are interested in.

There are some guys who really understand the NM system and odds, and they post here occassionally. When they post, I am taking notes of what they have to say. Hopefully they will chime in.


"Hunt when you can - You're gonna' run out of health before you run out of money!"