More than 19,600 cases now

[Founder]

The number is growing rapidly, doubling about every 3 days. 20k doesn’t seem like a lot, but 15 cases on Feb 26 didn’t seem like many either.
On Feb 26th there were 0 deaths, now nearly 260. Again, doesn’t seem like many, but if the rate continues at a double every 3 days, 260 could become 250k in a month.
I flip flop constantly on whether I think we’ll get a handle on this in time. If it reaches the point that hospital beds, equipment and personnel grow too short, death numbers will go up even faster.
Wouldn’t it be horrible to reach the point where you could be deathly ill, struggling to breathe, and no one or no equipment is available to help?
All these lockdowns and business closing seem like overkill, but looking beyond today or next week is when it begins to make more sense.
I’m a flip flopper on this virus.

 

[Alwayshunting]

Don't flip flop right on the virus. You'll definitely catch it then

 

[WapitiBob]

This may help you sleep better, or not.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[grizzly]

There's not much reason to look at the count because it is admittedly woefully inaccurate. They know 80% of the people have no symptoms and only 5% have severe symptoms and they only test the most severe and only if they can get the tests. Which means if they tested everybody with the most severe symptoms, there would still be statistically 20x that many infected.

Those counts are about tests, not infections. Another way to look at it... if they stopped testing today, the count tomorrow would be 0 new cases, which we all know isn't accurate, but neither is their count. All that shows is tests, not infected.

Ultimately, USA will have over 200,000,000 people catch CV-19 by this summer. The only thing we're looking at now is timing.

 

[feddoc]

The number is growing rapidly, doubling about every 3 days. 20k doesn’t seem like a lot, but 15 cases on Feb 26 didn’t seem like many either.
On Feb 26th there were 0 deaths, now nearly 260. Again, doesn’t seem like many, but if the rate continues at a double every 3 days, 260 could become 250k in a month.
I flip flop constantly on whether I think we’ll get a handle on this in time. If it reaches the point that hospital beds, equipment and personnel grow too short, death numbers will go up even faster.
Wouldn’t it be horrible to reach the point where you could be deathly ill, struggling to breathe, and no one or no equipment is available to help?
All these lockdowns and business closing seem like overkill, but looking beyond today or next week is when it begins to make more sense.
I’m a flip flopper on this virus.

The time to quit is now. Send me directions to your house and I will make sure all your hunting stuff is well taken care of.

 

[Bluehair]

Ultimately, USA will have over 200,000,000 people catch CV-19 by this summer. The only thing we're looking at now is timing.

I hope you are wrong about this.

 

[grizzly]

I hope you are wrong about this.

Me too!

CDC estimates 40-70% of Americans will be infected this year and we have over 325,000,000 people here.

"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."

 

[Bluehair]

See there. We agree on something.

 

[hossblur]

We need ventilators, respirators, beds, masks, etc, etc.

So. Let's mothball 75 million people. Plastics folders, cad, machinists, welders, manufacturers.

Only government can run this stupid.

Shut the lawyers down, INCLUDING PATENT lawyers. Fire up the industry in this country and build what we need.

You don't get more of something by constricting the supply of it. Except in government.

Dudes in their basements are 3d printing guns.

How many med students DIDNT we graduate in the last few weeks?

Stay home and wait to die. Not a real inspiring message.

Imagine if we had treated WW2 like that. We'd all speak Japanese.

We all watched TV shows where they built a house in a week.

I've yet to see a single hospital started. Or a single retrofit begun.

Just stay home and trust the government.

They have been so look successful at everything else they do.

 

[grizzly]

From another site...

"we are at 22,000 confirmed cases with 279 deaths, when Italy was at 22,000 confirmed cases they were at 1400 deaths, that trend has continued. They have tested 1000 per million and we have tested 26 per million. Unless deaths are being missed in this country I can’t see how the death rate will be above 1%. If we had tested more people right now than presumably there would be more confirmed cases but the same amount of deaths, which would make the death rate lower.

it’s entirely possible we are dealing with a death rate of less than 1% but still need to do the same things because of how transmissible and fast the virus spreads."

 

[WapitiBob]

As morbid as it sounds, I think the death numbers are the only accurate ones and actually show where we are in the cycle. Looks like those slowed yesterday and hopefully today which would mean the distancing and isolation the last cpl weeks is working.

 

[Bluehair]

I like the message that it won't kill us to stay home for a couple weeks and practice prevention. Prevention is always better than treatment isn't it?

That doesn't make the financial hardship any easier.

 

[DW]

The cure will be worse than the virus.

 

[DW]

Some perspective on Italy since everyone likes to say thats us in 4wks. Italy is 25% smaller than California with 24 million more people than California. We can agree California is crowded right? Italy's population is older than ours. 25% of Italians smoke, only 12% of americans smoke, this is a respiratory virus. Italy is culturally different than we are in that many older folks live with their children, often 3 generations under one roof. Junior goes out, gets infected, comes home and infects grandma, grandma dies. Italy has nationalized healthcare that the left continues to drive us towards. We do not, and we have a huge military complex that can be put in service should our hospitals be overwhelmed. VA hospitals, medical and hospital ships we can park near our populated coasts. I've been saying for awhile our death loss will be nowhere near Italy's, in spite of the fact we have 6x the population Italy has, because of the things I mentioned above. The recession we are being forced into by our current overreactions, will kill far more than this virus. If you have immune issues, respiratory issues, you smoke, or yer gettin up their in age, lay low for a bit. Hopefully this will pass when the warm weather hits and we can develop an immunization before fall. Here's to hopein you and yours, and me and mine get to the other side of this unscathed, by either side of this double edged sword!

 

[Tristate]

Gobble gobble. Turkey season opened this morning. It's a 12 ga. Pandemic. Go hunt fellas. Take a kid too. Time to remember the important things.

 

[eelgrass]

I heard a guy on Fox Business Channel this morning say we're going to lick this virus.

Please don't do that.

 

[hossblur]

So. I went to liquor store. Only 10 in at a time(yes real world i have to Go to a SPECIAL store to buy liquor). Then I stopped at Smiths to grab veggies.

The stores obviously have been hit. But for a state that has a virus and an earthquake this week, folks were pretty friendly. Pretty calm.

I still don't buy for second 19k cases. Not do I buy it hasn't been here since early December.

Simple math proves both unbelievably incorrect.

 

[eelgrass]

And when Al Gore made his science fiction movie he said the Arctic could be ice free by 2014. The ice extent 2020 is roughly where it was in 1980.

 

[Longun]

Yah Eel..don't hear much from that clown anymore where is he nowadays..

 

[eelgrass]

Longun, he's probably flying around in his private jet looking for warmer weather. He doesn't do well in the snow.

 

[Bluehair]

He's in Colorado looking for Man-bear-pig. Google is your friend.

 

[eelgrass]

I've never watched an episode of South Park so I'm still lost.

 

[NVBighorn]

.

 

[hossblur]

We have given the keys to our country to Doctors.

Didn't mean it's not serious. But it does mean that they are going to focus solely on the medical side. Crashing the world economy, causing a depression, I doubt they talk much about in med school

 

[Wiszard]

On what DW said...I have also heard Italians are not the most sanitary people. Just what I heard....

 

[NVBighorn]

Heard the same about Californians. ☺☺☺

 

[Sierra]

A friend sent me this model. Seems to be leaning toward the worst outcome for each scenario, but it does educate us non-doctor types.

U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker

Covid Act Now has real-time tracking of your community's COVID risk level. Explore how your community is doing.

www.covidactnow.org

 

[Sierra]

It’s really a balancing act. The longer we can shelter-in-place (shutdown) the more lives we save. But the longer we shutdown, the more economic pain we will feel. I assume our government will push the shutdown to a point where the economy bends, but doesn’t break. I don’t know where that breaking point is, but I’d venture to say that it’s less than the 3 months that the health professionals need. So at some point we are going to need to bite the bullet.

I assume our government is using a similar health model and adding a break/no-break financial model to make some decisions. I hope they get it right.

 

[DW]

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Bluehair]

The reason this is a panic is because it hit the hives of NYC and DC where the media also lives. Wall streeters and pol's thought they were immune from what happened in the rest of the world. Sadly, the clerk at your local truck stop realizes how important they are better than the people running the place, who gave us the finger and bolted for their bunker.

 

[eelgrass]

And I think Italy put all their sick people in one or two hospitals and then work the nurses and doctors to exhaustion and then show that on TV for the maximum affect. I know it's serious too.

 

[NVBighorn]

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

www.bloomberg.com

Thank god we dont have any high blood pressure, diabetes or heart disease in this country. I sure hope people that are overweight arent susceptible cuz we have a few of them here.

 

[eelgrass]

It’s really a balancing act. The longer we can shelter-in-place (shutdown) the more lives we save. But the longer we shutdown, the more economic pain we will feel. I assume our government will push the shutdown to a point where the economy bends, but doesn’t break. I don’t know where that breaking point is, but I’d venture to say that it’s less than the 3 months that the health professionals need. So at some point we are going to need to bite the bullet.

I assume our government is using a similar health model and adding a break/no-break financial model to make some decisions. I hope they get it right.

That's a really tough call and one that has serious repercussions no matter which way it goes.

 

[Wiszard]

Our government hasn't been known to be wrong before so I think they're doing the right thing. Our economy will bounce back. Sheeeeesh. LOL....that is sarcasm.

 

[hossblur]

The reason this is a panic is because it hit the hives of NYC and DC where the media also lives. Wall streeters and pol's thought they were immune from what happened in the rest of the world. Sadly, the clerk at your local truck stop realizes how important they are better than the people running the place, who gave us the finger and bolted for their bunker.

There is truth to that. Utah burns every year. Cali burns, suddenly it's a catastrophe.

Texas gets hit by a hurricane, bunch of redneck in air boats go rescue folks.

New Jersey? It's the end of the world.

First question should be. How long will you donate your salary?

If the experts are cool working for free for a few months, great.

Guessing the shut it down is lots easier if it's THE OTHER GUYS shutting down