Is Today the CV-19 Peak?

grizzly · Mar 29, 2020

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wilhille · Mar 29, 2020

Homer · Mar 29, 2020

tomorrow

Bluehair · Mar 29, 2020

New cases* yesterday were over 20,000, and were still increasing. The rate of increase also increased.

*The data gives us interesting stuff to argue about, but without a comprehensive and encompassing testing program its all BS. We still don't even know what we don't know.

Bluehair · Mar 29, 2020

I should add that the 20,000 plus number is from the NYT. Worldometer has a lower number. Who knows.

elkassassin · Mar 29, 2020

Tomorrow Ain't even Close to the Peak!

Any of You wanna Wager Some Money on it?

And I Do Hope I'm Wrong!

Bluehair · Mar 29, 2020

Can I pay you in a couple of weeks? I should be flush by then.

elkassassin · Mar 29, 2020

Sure!

Why Not!

Everybody else wants the Payment Plan!

Bluehair said:
Can I pay you in a couple of weeks? I should be flush by then.

oilcan · Mar 29, 2020

Unless we stop testing how could this possibly be the peak ?
We have only tested a quarter of one % of the US population.

grizzly · Mar 29, 2020

oilcan said:
Unless we stop testing how could this possibly be the peak ?
We have only tested a quarter of one % of the US population.

It seems too good to be true to me. But, again, I'm hoping he's right.

I think we can all agree testing does not equal cases. If it did, we could just stop testing tomorrow and have 0 new cases. But that wouldn't mean it's over.

My understanding from reading his posts is he focuses on deaths and not "cases" as cases are not as reliable as known deaths.

As he writes about the reported "cases" numbers, "garbage in, garbage out"

We'll know we're over the hump when death numbers fall for a few days as people typically die shortly after they're admitted to the hospital and tested positive. He calls it the "death lag"

grizzly · Mar 29, 2020

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Bluehair · Mar 30, 2020

According to the NYT (they have a very good CV page), the rate of increase finally declined. Thats good news even if the testing data shows cases still increasing.

Stonefly · Mar 30, 2020

It wont be very funny when there are 100000 Americans dead, and we are still looking for the peak.
Here in Utah, they say to expect 1000 , we are sitting at 4 now, I think. So nope, not peeked yet.
Last call we had no cases here in Sanpete, that is none that had been tested. Must be why I see all the trailors and trucks with campers comeing down 89 from up north. People just cant wait to spread this chit around. One nice thing they set up a huge tent at the lambing shed (hospitol) so when its finally here, us older folks will have a nice tent to die in alone, away from our families, kinda bothers me to hear stories about leaving this chithole of a world isolated away from your loved ones. Hope all those in the campers and trailors have a good camping trip and enjoy there time out here in the sticks.