Idaho Draw Process

JHas · Mar 8, 2007

In Idaho (as per the proclamation), a non-resident can draw "Up To" 10% of the allocated permits per unit.

Most states have separate drawings for non-resident tags, where non-residents compete against other non-residents for a certain percentage of the tags. For example: If there are 60 permits available with a 10% NR allocation, 6 NR permits would go to NRs. If 12 NRs put in for those 6 permits, the odds would be 50%. Right?

It seems in Idaho(at least as far as I can figure)that non-residents are placed in the draw with residents and if lucky, can draw permits until the "UP TO" 10% allocation is met. However; it is possible in Idaho that all 60 permits could be awarded to residents and zero permits going to NRs.

If you use the example above, but I add 200 residents to the mix, a resident would have a 28% (60/212) chance of drawing because they have a chance at all 60 permits.

How would the NR odds be figured? I know that 54 permits will go to 54 residents without a doubt. Which leaves 146 resident and 12 NRs competing for the additional 6 permits.
So 6/158 = 3.7% chance of a NR drawing.

Is this correct?

John

COSA · Mar 8, 2007

Usually there are more than 10% of nonresidents in any application pool. So the best way to get the true odds of drawing is to take 10% of the permits devided by the total nonres. apps for that particular hunt. At first glance, a lot of the moose and goat units look like 20% odds, when actually they are about 10% or less odds for a nonresident to draw.

JHas · Mar 9, 2007

COSA,

I agree that figuring the odds is that easy for almost all states.

But Idaho is different and I've just now realized it. Idaho does not allocate 10% of their tags to NRs. They allocate UP TO 10% because residents compete with NRs for the 10%.

Here is a result from their 2007 spring turkey:

Hunt# TM950-2, 50 permits available, 88 1st choice (85 Res and 3 NRs) 49 Res drawn and only 1 NR drawn.

In most states, there would have been 5 permits available for 3 NRs (100% odds).

The actual odds for the example above are:

Residents: 57% odds

NonResidents: 11.6% Odds.

I would have thought I had a 100% chance for this tag but instead my odds were only 1 in 8.

John

springbear · Mar 9, 2007

I think that you are correct in your odd of drawing. One thing, is that if there is only 1 tag for a unit (sheep, goat, moose) that tag can go to a non resident...

Bambistew · Mar 9, 2007

What states have a true "NR pool"?

CO is "up to 20-35%"
ID is "up to 10%"
MT is "up to 10%"

JHas · Mar 9, 2007

If I'm not mistaken (and I could be), MT, WY, CO and NM all set aside a percentage of their permits that only NRs compete for (a true NR pool).

Montana offers NRs a quota of their combo tags that ONLY NRs compete for.

Wyoming does the same as NRs have a totally separte drawing for elk. Their turkey, deer and antelope odds also reflect a true NR pool.

New Mexico's and Nevada's odds also reflect a true NR pool for alloted tags.

I'm not sure about Colorado, Arizona and the rest.

John

Salmonfg · Mar 9, 2007

Most of the calculations are correct, but there's a little confusion between "odds" and actual draw rates.

In the turkey example, because there were fewer NR applicants than available permits, the mathematical chance of drawing for ALL applicants was 57% (50/88). The mathematical odds are the long-term average for all applicants, not the guaranteed odds for each indivdual (that's a binomial distribution - you either draw or you don't). I don't understand how the 11.6% was calulated, but your true chance was 57% or 1 in 1.76.

In the case of NR applicants exceeding the 10% cap, then the first calculation is approximately correct. Another way to look at it is NRs have exactly the same chance of drawing as residents up to the point the cap is reached, at which point the NR chances drop to zero. One thing to consider is group applications in small hunts because if a group is selected later in the drawing process, the group size may exceed the NR cap, causing the entire group to be rejected. In the first example with 6 NR tags, if 3 NR tags have already been awarded and your group of 4 NR applicants is the next one selected, the whole group will be bypassed. Utah pronghorn permits are a slightly different example of this. Because 50% of permits go to the Bonus Point pool (and they round down), there must be at least 4 non-resident permits in a hunt for a group of 2 people to draw based on their bonus points. Thus there are only 2 pronghorn hunts in Utah (based on 2006 tag levels) where a party of 2 hunters can possibly draw even if they have maximum points for pronghorn (but they could potentially draw in the 2nd, true bonus point part of the draw if there were at least 3 tags).

Moose, sheep, and goat include another twist as of a few years ago. Originally, NRs were limited to 10% of permits BY HUNT, so they could actually draw more than 10% of all permits available in Idaho. At the time, NRs could have theoretically drawn up to about 22% of sheep tags in Idaho (e.g., 1 for each hunt = 18 of about 80 tags for sheep). The rules were changed a few years ago so that NRs are now allowed up to 10% of permits for the SPECIES as a whole (e.g., 8 of 80 permits), and no more than 1/hunt area (unless there are 10 or more permits in a hunt).

Hope this info is helpful.

Tom Keegan
Salmon Region Wildlife Manager

JHas · Mar 9, 2007

What you are saying then is Idaho does not have a true NR pool like other states.

The turkey results I posted were actual results from this year and there is no way the actual chance of an NR was 57%. Here is how I figured it.

50 permits available of which 45 WILL go to residents.

This leaves 5 permits (10%) left for NRs and the remaining residents.

88 total 1st choice applicants, remove 45 residents because they will draw.

This leaves 43 residents and NRs competing for the remaining 5 permits.

5/43 = 11.627%

NRs do not have a chance at all the tags, just 5. Residents have a chance at all tags, even the NRs quota.

John

JHas · Mar 9, 2007

Just another note. Of the 540 2007 Idaho turkey permits available, just 9 permits went to NRs.

9/540 = 1.67% actual draw success for NRs. A far cry from 10%.

Is there another western state that conducts their draws the way Idaho does?

John

Salmonfg · Mar 12, 2007

"What you are saying then is Idaho does not have a true NR pool like other states."

Correct, there is no set aside for NRs.

"Is there another western state that conducts their draws the way Idaho does?"

Yes, Oregon has "up to" quotas (e.g., 10% deer/elk, 3% pronghorn), but OR also has a 75/25 preference point system. Arizona also uses a "no more than 10%" system for NRs for most species, in combination with a bonus point system.

"50 permits available of which 45 WILL go to residents.
This leaves 5 permits (10%) left for NRs and the remaining residents.
This leaves 43 residents and NRs competing for the remaining 5 permits.
5/43 = 11.627%
NRs do not have a chance at all the tags, just 5. Residents have a chance at all tags, even the NRs quota."

While some of your statements are correct, the end calculation is not appropriate in a case where NR applicants do not meet the 10% cap. First the permits are not issued in any particular order, that is, the residents are not drawn separately or first. If the first 3 applications considered happened to be NRs, then those 3 would draw. With only 3 NR applicants for 5 possible NR permits, there's no restriction on those NRs. I maintain that, in this case (with fewer NRs than the quota), NRs had the same random chance of drawing as residents (the 57%). If there were more than 5 NR applicants, then I agree the chances would be lower and the type of calculation you show MAY be closer to reality.

"Just another note. Of the 540 2007 Idaho turkey permits available, just 9 permits went to NRs.
9/540 = 1.67% actual draw success for NRs. A far cry from 10%."

Again, the numbers are correct, but they are not in context. Yes, NRs drew 1.67% of turkey tags, but NRs only accounted for 1.12% of applicants. So NRs actually drew permits at somewhat higher level than they would be expected to by long-term random chance. Of 14 turkeys hunts, the 10% cap would only have affected 4 hunts (in 10 hunts, NR applicants did not exceed the cap). Even if all 30 NR applicants had drawn, they still would have only received 5.6% of permits. NRs can't draw 10% of tags if there aren't even enough applications to make up 10% of what's available!

In hunt series with more interest, like bull elk, NRs often draw 10% of the permits. In some hunts, NR draw will be somewhat less because of rounding (e.g., 75 total permits*10% = 7.5, rounded down to 7 possible NR permits). In rare instances where nonresident applications do not exceed the 10% cap, you'll see that resident and NR draw odds are virtually identical.

Lastly, please keep in mind that in some states, regulations may be set by state law rather than Commission or Board rule (so taking issue with the state agency accomplishes nothing). In either case, resident/nonresident tag issues are often a balancing act for the governing body and no system will satisfy even a majority of stakeholders.

Tom Keegan
Salmon Region Wildlife Manager

JHas · Mar 12, 2007

Thanks for the info Tom.

I am not trying to say anything negative about how Idaho conducts their draws. I believe all states should manage however their citizens choose. I respect that.

I was just surprised about how you conduct your draws and how little information there is from the IDFG on how you conduct your NR draws.

Now that I know I can make a more informed decision on whether or not it is worth the money to participate.

Again, thanks for your help.

John

huntin100 · Mar 12, 2007

Slim odds at the better deer, elk, and sheep units. Ususally less than 5% chance of drawing which costs you 150 dollar license plus application fees and limited entry fees. Moose may be worth it IMO. I hope things change at some time. If more non resisents new how poor there odds were less would apply.