How long before people start cashing in their points?

npaden · Jan 26, 2011

Trying to decide if I want to build some points or not.

The unit I'm looking at took 3.5 to 4.0 points to draw last year, but I wonder when the max point crowd is going to start getting tired of not drawing and start applying for some of the decent units instead of holding out for a premium unit.

I only have 1 point right now so it will be 3 more years before I'll be in position to draw the unit unless things change.

Right now I'm paying for the special tag and putting general down for my 2nd choice so I can still hunt each year but it is going to start getting expensive. I'll end up spending $2,000 extra over the 4 year period and at $530 per year for the special tag plus the preference point if I end up having to go a few extra years to draw a decent unit it is a pretty big difference.

The alternative would be to just use my 1 point and apply for the general tag on a regular price license and keep $530 in my pocket. I wouldn't ever be able to build points that way, but the general tag gives me opportunity to shoot a bull (I'm 2 for 3 the last 3 years), but nothing that would go on the wall.

If you start to add up the cost of the special tag and the preference points, you could buy a landowner tag in New Mexico or Utah for the amount of money you would have built up in Wyoming after 4 or 5 years.

I know I can't have my cake and eat it too which is what I want, but I would hate to start building up my points using my expensive method and then find out that in 3 years folks are bailing on the premium units and cashing them out on the decent units that I'm looking at.

Make sense? Any thoughts?

Thanks, Nathan

TOPGUN · Jan 26, 2011

Not really much to say, as you pretty well covered it. Each person has to figure out what suits them and makes them happy and then go with it! The way it's looking now the top units will probably take at least 4 or 5 PPs to draw them from now on under the system that's in place. I'm not going to not hunt and wait for that one hunt, so I'm building several PPs for a deer unit I want to hunt at least one time and while I'm doing that I'm buying a Regional tag every year so I can hunt decent areas until that unit is drawable.

YukonDall · Jan 26, 2011

HEY NATHAN.......BE CAREFUL WITH THOSE LANDOWNER TAGS IN NEW MEXICO. A LOT OF THOSE TAGS ARE BEING OVER HYPED, BIG TIME....AS TO QUALITY & NUMBERS OR ELK & DEER TO BE HUNTED THERE. I KNOW A FEW FELLAS THAT HAVE COME HOME......NOT ONLY WITH NO GAME.......BUT NONE SIGHTED AS WELL. KICK SOME TIRES BEFORE YOU BUY NM TAGS................YD. (HOMEWORK).

npaden · Jan 26, 2011

Yeah, I would only be interested in a unit wide landowner tag in an area that I was familiar with. I had a bad experience this year in New Mexico with a public land antelope tag that I drew. I was assigned to a specific ranch and there just weren't any animals there and I ended up eating that tag.

I did some double checking and I am probably overly worried about there being a glut of folks with max points that would really affect things, but it is still a concern.

Unit 7 had 115 people with max points apply this past year in the special draw, but the quota was 67 so that ate up a bunch of them. In the regular draw for Unit 7 there was 264 max point guys for 100 tags so that took out quite a few more.

Unit 100 and 113 had the biggest log jams with 172 1st choice applicants with max points for 10 tags between them in the special side of the draw so that is going to take a while for those folks to get drawn. In the regular side of the draw there are a few more stacked up with 580 1st choice applicants with max points applying for 13 tags. At some point those guys are going to realize that it is going to take 44 years before all the max points are going to get cycled through on that unit. That would really mess things up on some of the smaller quota units if some of those folks started jumping ship.

Oh well, it's only money right?

npaden · Jan 26, 2011

Okay, ran the numbers a little bit.

There were 631 max point holders in the Special draw with a quota of 288 licenses (excluding the general tag) and 2,010 max point holders in the Regular draw with a quota of 696 licenses (excluding the general tag). The quotas are only for the tags that were taking 4 points to draw. If everyone was distributed equally it would take 2.4 years to clear the Special draw folks and 3.1 years to clear the Regular draw folks. Not too horrible.

41 units were still taking max points to draw in the special draw and 63 units were still taking max points to draw in the regular draw. That includes archery tags.

Narrowing it down to any weapon Bull or Either Sex tags there were 36 units in the special draw and 55 units in the regular draw requiring max points. On the special side there were 8 units requiring 3 points, 6 requiring 2 points, 1 requiring 1 point and 7 requiring 0 points. On the regular side there were only 2 units requiring 3 points, 2 requiring 2 points, 1 requiring 1 point and none with 0 points.

It is going to be interesting the next couple years to see how many folks with max points drop out and go to other units that they should be able to draw. Unit 7 is going to knock out a bunch of folks this year, between the regular and special draw it should knock nearly 200 max point holders out this year.

Oh well, still doesn't really tell me what I want to know. I've got the 2010 draw results in an excel spreadsheet if anyone wants it though.

Cahunter805 · Jan 26, 2011

Nathan, Thanks for the info. I am sitting on points right now and looks like I will keep at if a few more years. Should be able to have my pick in a few years. To bad they did away with the hunt I was applying for. I guess I have a few years to research a new one.

270Whatelse · Jan 28, 2011

FYI there are currently 5688 people with "MAX" points for elk so it could be a long wait. Lots of guys just buyn points and saving them for a rainy day.

biggameballer · Jan 29, 2011

I have max points for Deer, Elk and Antelope in Wyoming. I figured I would put in for the units I want to draw and wait it out even if it cost me more money however, once I draw I am then going to put in for easier units to draw. I figure that I will only have max points once so even though there are other units i would be happy hunting I just can't stand the thought of burning max points on one of those units that I could draw with 1 or 2 points. I know several other people who are doing the same thing.

TOPGUN · Jan 29, 2011

I'm sure there are a lot of people in the same boat and it will take some time for those people to draw their dream tag. Then maybe things will settle down a little and it won't take a lifetime like is happening in other states.

Moosey69 · Jan 31, 2011

I have Max points for Elk, Deer and 3 for goats, and I have not put in for any draws yet, and know several friends and family doing the same thing. So I think your concerns are good ones. In another year or two I plan on tring to draw a "top" area with some friends and family, so I think it maybe a little too soon to look at the last couple years and think you know what the trend is.

npaden · Jan 31, 2011

LAST EDITED ON Jan-31-11 AT 11:30AM (MST)[p]Still struggling with my decision right up to the deadline.

Ran the numbers one more time and it is going to end up costing me $1,060 extra to have 4 points by 2013 than if I cashed in my points every other year on a general tag.

Will 4 points get me anything decent in 2013 or am I going to have to spend another $530 to get to 6 points in 2015 before I get a good tag or is that even a sure thing?

Seems crazy, I skimp and save and won't buy a nice pair of sitka pants because they are too expensive, but here I am contemplating spending several times more than that on the chance to draw a tag several years from now!

I guess the other thought to consider is that based on previous odds the unit I'm trying to draw would end up with almost 10% draw odds in the random draw so there is always the chance I could just get really lucky and draw out in the next couple years!

;-)