Here's the Hunt Expo odds

COLOelkman

COLOelkman

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Since some of the other threads were getting extremely long, just thought I'd post this.
Odds for drawing an elk tag via the Hunt Expo was given to me as 1:836.
Here's my story and I'm stickin to it. I'd noticed an error on the website about a month ago regarding the day they'd post results so I emailed them to let them know. I'd also asked about any odds numbers they might be able to provide. They thanked me for noting the error and told me the elk odds were 1:836. Although not broken down as I'd hoped, it was better than nothing and probably better than I expected although still terrible as anyone should expect. I tried to look up the email they'd sent to verify the number and who replied but I must have deleted it. I didn't think they gave me any other odds or details as I think I'd only asked about elk. Hope this helps! I'm somewhat surprised by reading other posts that nobody else was given any info.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-12-10 AT 04:12PM (MST)[p]That's very interesting to me that they would give you a number like that. I would venture to say that was someone's guess to what some odds may be. I am under the impression that your odds of drawing a certain tag at the expo depends on how many people apply for that tag. Im sure that some tags recieve more applicants that others. Either way the odds arent what makes people apply for the tags. I think its more of the chance to get a premium tag for the $5.
 
Great if you got the real dope on the elk odds.

Think about this, though.

Expo says 20,000 folks attend the Expo. Some are flat broke attendees or possibly kids too young to apply...but most attendees are applying for tags.

Elk odds as well as every tag but tags for turkey and cougar are 8000 to 1, in my opinion, which makes these tags the worst odds in North America. If there are 2 tags for a hunt then is 4000 to 1 since you get 2 chances for that hunt.

No one here will get publicly-revealed odds for the disposal of publicly-owned tags and that makes me wonder about the actual draw, too. A lot of secrecy surround these tags and that usually means something is screwy.

Is not much of a sacrifice to apply for the tags if you live across town from the Expo but then you are probably a Utah resident in that instance. These tags got taken from the non-resident tag pool yet is a heck of a lot more expensive to fly to the event and stay in hotel so that is why virtually 100% of these non-resident tags go to Utah residents.

Seems like a screw job to redistribute from one group to another so I am out of step with the masses a lot these days on what should be done and Obama being elected is my #1 Clue.

Good luck to all that apply at the Expo. I enjoyed flying over for it in the past.
 
thanks elkman... I was wondering too and it is interesting to see it even if it is just an average or something.

the number is better than I would have guessed.
 
Soooooooooo

$5 a pop x 836 = $4,180.00 raised 'for wildlife' from the Elk tags offered?

That is sad.....

Robb
 
Robb, I am definitely not here to defend tag auctions or raffles, but I am pretty sure that you need to multiply your $5 x 836 by the total number of elk tags offered at the expo to find out how much money was raised. I bet those odds are the average for all the elk tags including Diamond Mountain, San Juan and everything in between.

Dax
 
Just drive up to Idaho & get a lottery ticket.....


if you win, go to Illinois & buy/own you some PRIME whitetail land!!!!!!
 
As many have noted, much of the expo tags come from the non-resident allotment. When I look at the tag numbers, I don't see a noticible drop in the number. Many units would be obviously difficult to tell this but it seems that looking at a couple units like San Juan or Filmore Pahvant, which have very limited tags, you might be able to see it which I don't. So I guess the question I have is whether the total number of tags (shown in the Odds link) actually reflects tags available via the normal draw, or whether one of the tags is actually given to the expo but it still shows up as if it were an draw tag? At any rate, in the grand scheme it probably doesn't matter as odds are a lot worse than the normal draw process but you won't win unless you play. I'll be flying in for a day and playing but probably for only a select number of units.
 
Dax......that is kinda my 'math point' that we do not know what 1 in 836 actually represents.... 1 unit or all units or just overal odds to draw any of the elk tags.....

You look on the comparison page of the Expo that has Utah Draw vs Expo draw 'odds' and it isn't even 1 in 836.....

I was just in a 'chitty mood' after getting home from the job last night and kinda get tired of the big run around about the Odds from our tags subsidized Expo.

Robb
 
COLOelkman, I was given the draw odds the very first time I asked for them. But there has been so much bitching and complaing on MM about the EXPO. I wouldnt post the odds. I feel SFW is unfairly critized all to often. I'm just grateful for the opportunity to have a "fair" chance at a tag. The rich as well as the poor are on even ground at the EXPO.
 
Look at sheep odds. That really tells how many people bought expo tags. Less than 4600. They are stealing the draw tags for the benifit of getting better show attendence. Wonder how many of those are both coming because of the tags and spend money there? My guees is that that number is pretty small.....
 
just a thought. If 1:836 is for any single unit and you take a hunt like the Wasatch Elk (early) that they give 6 tags for. Thats actually 5016 people that put in for that specific hunt. I still believe whatever the odds are, you can't win if you don't play the game..
 
I liked the odds last year on that Wasatch early elk tag :) In the 3 years (I think it has been 3 years) that the expo has taken place, I have drawn a tag and my brother drew one as well (both Wasatch elk tags, one archery and one early rifle).

I have also known several others that have drawn tags including a neighbor/friend of my parents that drew San Juan elk and Vernon deer in the same year.

Might as well put in if you can - someone has to draw!!
 
My take on the number they gave me would be that the overall odds of winning any elk tag was 1:836. Thus, total apps for all elk tags vs total number of elk tags available. Normal logic might also follow that the really good units would have worse odds and the less desirable units might have better but who knows. So 1:836 doesn't mean a whole lot assuming it's an average number except to confirm that odds are worse than most of the normal drawing odds. Bottom line is that it's up to every individual as to whether they want to consider contributing and having a slim chance or not! Economics aside, as they say.... It's better to have played the game and lost rather than to have never played at all!
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-13-10 AT 06:23PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jan-13-10 AT 06:16?PM (MST)

Very true-----I have never been one to sit on the bench.....I always have to be in the game!

the 'Latest Expo Odds' that I have recieved below 3 posts....

The species are in the same order for each year listed.

Robb
 
2007
Species Permits Odds (1 in..)
Buck Deer 42 212
Bull Elk 50 188
Pronghorn 22 110
Bull Moose 4 1404
Bison 1 4391
Desert Sheep 1 4581
Mountain Sheep 1 4597
Mountain Goat 1 3757
Turkey 66 24
Black Bear 5 287
Cougar 7 165
200
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-13-10 AT 06:21PM (MST)[p]2008
Permits Odds (1 in..)
40 185
51 152
19 110
4 1082
4 873
1 3394
1 3478
1 2697
67 20
5 214
7 110
200
 
Robb - So in 09, there were 18 elk tags and odds of 1 in 143? That's much better than I was told if I'm understanding your numbers correctly. Doug
 
Odds getting better also means ticket sales and show attendence are dropping. It's a smaller special interest group taking tags away from the regular draw is supporting... I know the bad economy has hurt fundraising, beyond expectations when they sold the idea, but still, ..... Just isn't right to rob the regular draw for this.
 
Doug you are one row down......that is the Antelope row...

Elk was 83 with 1 in 107....

I couldn't get it to paste the complete doc....I had to piggy back three posts with no columns making it thru!

Where is Felino when ya need a computer expert!

When I first got them sent to me I was way iffy......not because of the person sending them but because they had been fwdr----ya know---someone along the way could have tweaked a few numbers.....

But from going thru my printouts from '07 thru this years...the tags jive.......

On the OIL tags----keep in mind 5 of 'em are non-ressy appl only and the others are every/anyone....'ODDS'...

Robb
 
I don't believe in the expo.
I don't approve of where they took the tags from.
I don't support it.
I did not attend nor never will.
I pick and choose where I spend my application money, and the UT expo draw odds make it a very poor investment value, just like the Valle Caldera lottery in NM. There are much better states/hunts to invest money.
 
Hey Fudd, the odds are getting better on Sheep, Bison, Goat, and Moose. It's because of the tag increases, not because of a decrease in applications. (Yes the NR only tags hurt Utah Resident odds, but I am responding to the alleged decrease in overall attendance.)

By my math...
Total applications for 2007 were 47,840.
Total applications for 2008 were 37,811.
Total applications for 2009 were 42,117.

There was a decrease from 2007, but an uptick from 2008 to 2009. Statistically the changes are insignificant, especially considering all the variables like the economy to fuel prices to weather patterns. Plus you may or may not expect the first year to be the biggest as the most excitement was generated at that time.

Whether or not you like the Expo I am impressed with their stay-power considering the struggles they face.

Grizzly
 
>I don't believe in the expo.
>
>I don't approve of where they
>took the tags from.
>I don't support it.
>I did not attend nor never
>will.
>I pick and choose where I
>spend my application money, and
>the UT expo draw odds
>make it a very poor
>investment value, just like the
>Valle Caldera lottery in NM.
> There are much better
>states/hunts to invest money.


+1

Non-residents get the shaft in this deal and I think it was the intent all along. 200 tags effectively switch to be resident tags. A lot of non-residents are prior residents or family. We are all non-residents except in one state so shrinking the non-resident tag pool is short-sighted. Non-residents fund a chunk of the budget since tag fees are often 10x the resident tag fee. Add in a rental SUV, hotel and other expenditures that tend to be higher on a hunt than for a resident and the local economy gets a bit of a boost, too.
 
Being a NR, I'm also not a big fan of where the tags are taken from but I assume NR's voice of opposition would not be nearly as loud as if they pulled the tags from Residents. So I assume this is why they hit the NR's. I think most States tend to be similarly bias as they'd get more flack from Residents on "controversial" issues and I'm sure they know that. I do try to support wildlife organizations and believe most of them probably have worthy intentions. Overall I don't think one can go to the show and expect to have a good chance at winning as I think it's just a good hunting show compared to ones here in Denver!
 
I'M STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW THE EXPO TAGS COME OUT OF NON RESIDENT POOL IN 2005 THERE WAS 1!!! NR DEER TAG ON HENRYS IN 2009 3 NR TAGS ON HENRYS + CHANCE TO WIN 2 AT EXPO IN 2005 27 RESIDENT RIFLE TAGS ON NEBO 3 NR TAGS IN 2009 72 RIFLE TAGS WITH 7 FOR NR WHERE'S THE CUT IN NR TAGS
WASATCH 2005 2009
RES TAGS 76 216
NR TAGS 8 23
MANTI 2005 2009
RES TAGS 83 123
NR TAGS 9 13
SW DESERT 2005 2009
RES TAGS 13 32
NR TAGS 1 3
SEEMS TO ME NR'S STILL GETTING AT LEAST 10% NOT LIKE ME IN AZ.
NON RES. GOT JUST AS GOOD OF CHANCE AT EXPO TAGS AS ANY RES. QUIT BITCHIN COME TO EXPO DRAW TAG!!!!
 
ILARCHER

WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE IN ?
WHERE DID TAGS COME FROM ?
DO YOU ONLY WANT ONE CHANCE IN DRAW ?
GOOD !!!
STAY AWAY FROM UTAH !!!
 
"WHERE DID TAGS COME FROM ?"

You seriously don't know where the raffle tags came from???
Sounds like you should educate yourself before you making comments on a subject. This is very old news and a disgrace to anyone who hunts federal lands.
 
ILARCHER & PLEASEDEAR
I DON'T THINK YOU KNOW WHERE THE EXPO TAGS COME FROM!
I MISSED DON PEAYS LETS SCREW NON-RESIDENTS MEETING BUT I CAN DO SIMPLE MATH.CAN YOU?
2000 RES.TAGS NON-RES.TAGS 2009 RES.TAGS NON-RES.TAGS
DEER
PAUNS AR 59 7 23 2
PAUNS R 161 18 70 7
PAUNS MZ 52 6 23 2
HENERY AR 5 0 6 1
HENERY R 13 1 21 1
HENERY MZ 5 0 6 1
ELK
SAN JUAN R 11 1 31 4
DUTTON R 21 2 50 6
NEBO R 13 1 72 7
MANTI R 85 10 123 13
WASATCH 85 10 216 23
S.W. DES. 9 1 32 3
MONROE 12 1 33 3
BOULDER 5 0 33 4

I MIGHT JUST BE A UTARD WITH "GED" BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE NUMBERS ARE CLOSE TO SAME? PLEASE SHOW ME WHERE THE EXPO TAGS COME FROM
 
Hey DWR....


Give the PUBLIC tags for PUBLIC animals back to the PUBLIC....

How about I start a new expo and you donate 200 tags to me.....what a crock of poop.


"One nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all."
 
LAST EDITED ON Jan-27-10 AT 12:51PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jan-27-10 AT 12:43?PM (MST)

LAST EDITED ON Jan-27-10 AT 12:40?PM (MST)

coondog, You are serious! We were born, it's just that it wasn't yesterday, like the guy in the Burger King commercial.

You can whip out numbers, shuffle them, pour out some smoke and impress the newbies who don't have a clue. However, the majority of us know exactly what's going on. It does not take a rocket scientist. One only needs to look at the grand amount of tags being taken for auction and put 2 and 2 together. No other numbers are necessary.

This is the only math I want you to show us:

1. Total all the game tags in the state.

2. Show us how 10% of these go to a pool for all NR's to apply for in a regular lottery using the bonus points we've been paying for for 14 years.

Simple. No other figures matter. You can take the other 90% and make them all raffle tickets with a snowballs chance in hell of drawing. You can have a clown handing them out at the door of the "expo" if you want. You can require any applicants for those to fly cross country to enter if you want. Just leave the 10% alone.

We all know your attitude would be altogether different if every state in the country had the same policy as DP has installed in UT.

Make sure to sharpen your pencil.
 
IL

DIDN'T USE NO SMOKE AND MIRRORS JUST PAID $28.00 FOR A ODDS BOOK
HAS ALL THE TAG NUMBERS IN IT JUST LISTED THE BEST TAGS THAT MOST PEOPLE WANT ONLY PLACE I THINK NON RES GETTIN SCREWED IS HENERY RIFLE. DON'T THINK THERE SHOULD BE A ARCHERY OR MUZZ TAG THOUGH. STILL THERE IS A CHANCE U COULD DRAW A EXPO TAG
 
The 1 in 836 for an elk tag is very very misleading.

That number has been diluted because it is all the elk tags available. WHat I would like to see is the odds for each and every tag available.

Do you really belive you have a 1 in 836 of drawing the Pahvant tag or the San Juan tag?

How bout the Henry deer tag?

No you don't. The REAL numbers are astronomical and would chase a lot of you away from entering.

This is not a "rumor" remember I was there the 1st year of the draw and the numbers for the "best" tags were a lot more then 1 in 836.

This is just another way to make you think the odds are reasonable when in reality they may be worse then the regular draw.

Tony Abbott
 
You can only buy one ticket per selection (see the website). Ie Only 1 Henry Mountain ticket Premium Any Weapon, 1, Book Cliffs, Any weapon, etc. So you can purchase several Deer raffle tickets but only one of each. Thus, your odds are the same as everyone else that buys a ticket.

I agree with the later post that 1:836 for elk is an average and the more top end units will have worse odds. I was hoping they'd post individual units but they don't seem willing to publicly do that. Perhaps it would effect ticket sales or whatever. Can't do much about that except for play or sit on the side lines. It's up to everyone whether they wish to contribute and have a small chance to get a great tag.
 
This is just another way to make you think the odds are reasonable when in reality they may be worse then the regular draw.

I really don't think that anyone thinks that the draw odds are reasonable. I surely don't think 1:836 is reasonable, so if they are trying to trick people into entering based on those odds, they aren't very sly.
The expo is a good time, with a chance at a good to great tag. It is like a trip to Vegas. You take your money and don't plan on getting anything for it but a good time. Besides 1:836 or 1:1,000,000 is still better than a big fat 0. I want to hunt the San Juan again, and until I can find a way to buy a tag, I will put in for any opportunity they give me.
 
cd, I'm totally not wasting any more of my time barking up this long lost tree. Just a load of propaganda to cover up the NR raping.
 
IL

I WAS JUST RESPONDING TO YOUR COMMENTS WITH MY OWN THOUGHTS ON THE SUBJECT.THE NUMBERS ARE THERE FOR ANYONE TO SEE. YOU WANT A FAIR CHANCE AT TAGS AND I AGREE. I APPLY IN ALOT OF STATES AND I DONT EXPECT TO HAVE THE SAME ODDS AS RESIDENTS AND I DONT WHINE ABOUT IT . I RESEARCH AND FIGURE WHERE THE BEST ODDS ARE OR WHERE THE BEST ANIMALS ARE AND APPLY AND EVERY ONCE IN AWHILE I GET LUCKY!! ALL I WAS TRYING TO SAY IS THAT THE MORE CHANCES THERE ARE FOR TAGS THE BETTER THE CHANCE AT GETTING ONE.I'M ON A WAITING PERIOD FOR ELK SO THE EXPO OR BUYING A TAG ARE MY ONLY CHOICE IN UTAH.IF A PERSON REALLY WANTS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO HUNT THEY SHOULD USE ALL OPTIONS
. I DONT CARE WHAT THE ODDS ARE, SOME PEOPLE DO . THE EXPO ODDS ARE BAD BUT I HONESTLY DONT THINK THE NON-RES. ARE GETTING SCREWED ANY WORSE THAN THE REST OF US . YOU SAY YOU WANT A FAIR CHANCE TO DRAW A TAG THAT YOU HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET FOR THE LAST 14 YEARS? WELL I CAN TELL YOU THAT THEIR IS ALOT MORE TAGS IN UTAH THAN THERE WERE 14 YEARS AGO ,I'M NOT SAYING WHY THAT IS.
BUT I DONT THINK IT JUST HAPPENED . THIS SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE PERFECT BUT ITS ALL THEIR IS
 

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