Figuring NR Elk Cow odd's as second choice

[BPKHunter]

I have 6pt's, but I am considering a cow hunt, possibly to hunt a unit I may want to try next year for bulls, or as a tag along with a friend who has more pt's than I this year. So, I don't want to burn points on cow.

Example, if my friend put's in for 62 type 1 he is likely to draw, while I am not. If I put in for Type 4 cow, what are my odd's and how do I figure.

I did find in the NR Random draw odd's that there was a quota of 2 and 10 second choice applicants, so I would conclude 20% via random. Is that it?

I looked at Reg PP Draw and saw also a quota of 9, but none issued and 0%.

I looked at Special PP Draw and saw a quota of 4 and none issued and 0%.

I looked at the hunter success stats and see that Type 4 for 2013 had 75 tags, but no reference to how many NR's, so I can't back in to see if the NR's get a total of 20% of the 75 available, and with only 10 second choice applicants I would expect to get a tag.

As you can see I am trying to use the info to figure it out, but need some assistance from those more experienced.

Brian

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-16-15 AT 04:05PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Jan-16-15 AT 04:03?PM (MST)

"I did find in the NR Random draw odd's that there was a quota of 2 and 10 second choice applicants, so I would conclude 20% via random. Is that it?"

yes

PP reports show only 1st choice apps.
You are correct in looking at the Random reports to see your 2nd choice odds. Do NOT apply for that tag as your 1st choice.

1 tag and (3) 2nd choice apps for the Special 62 type 4. $1100 cow tag....

You need additional reports to take a tag quota of 75 and get to the final NR quota for each draw because there are LO tags coming out prior, and rounding, tags not drawn getting moved, etc. Best/easiest practice to just look at the NR Draw reports unless you are looking at GEN.

 

[BPKHunter]

Thanks, but is there a draw report other than, (NR Random, NR Special Random, NR PP Reg, and NR PP Special)? I don't see where you found the 3 second choice applicants for 1 available tag in the Special.

I think I read that the Special pool get's all the second choices before the Reg pool, is that correct? If that is correct, then you would have had only a 33% odd of drawing this cow tag in the Special, 20% in the Random, and 0% in the Regular...as a Second Choice.

PS I thought you meant Leftover with LO at first, but then realized you actually meant Landowner, which makes more sense.

 

[WapitiBob]

Those are the 4 published draw reports.

Special, Random Draw report shows for unit 62, type 4 Cow tag, 1 tag quota, zero 1st choice apps coming over from the PP draw, and (3) 2nd choice apps.

For the unit you are asking about, in the 2014 draw, you had a 2/10 chance at the type 4 as a 2nd choice in the Regular Random draw.
You had a 1/3 chance in the Special Random draw.



In this example, the 5 tags will be available for the (2) 2nd choice guys.

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-17-15 AT 03:01PM (MST)[p].

 

[BPKHunter]

Bob,

Really appreciate your time and patience helping this Idahoan figure Wy out.

So to summarize what I see, if someone apply's for elk, and they put a second choice, that is only available through the "Random" pool, which in fact only represents 25% of the tag allocation.

So, it appears that the notion that NR's get 16% of the tag allocation for draws is not really correct unless we are talking about bull hunts where for the most part there are more applicants with points applying than tags available. For most "Antlerless" type 4&5 tags, not to be confused with "Cow/Calf reduced price" type 6&7 tags, there are really no applicants with points applying, and with none of those available as second choice, except in the Random pool, those tags don't go to NR's. So for the most part, NR's get 4% of the Type 4&5 tags. That's fine, we only allocate "up to 10% here in Idaho", but seems like a bit of a slight of hand about what is really available until you get educated.

The Reduced Price Cow/Calf hunts seem great, less cost is always good. My issue is simply that I had hoped to try for the cow tag in the same unit my friend would apply for bulls in, and the RP cow tag starts after his hunt closes. I could have a good opportunity at that tag in the Special Random Pool, but $1k is a little much for a cow tag.

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-20-15 AT 12:54PM (MST)[p]BKPHunter---You need to go back to the drawing board because you appear confused. The statute requires that NRs receive a minimum of 7250 full price tags. That is not the percentage involved in the draw themselves. The Type 4 cow tag IS a full price tag and you would certainly be in one of the two PP draws for that with your PPs depending on whether you applied for the Regular or higher priced Special and you would lose them all if you drew your unit as a first choice. The reduced price tags (Type 6/7) you mentioned are a straight random draw in each unit and do not use PPs, so everyone that applies for them has the exact same chance as the next guy with no worry about point loss. It does sound like you realize that you can't get that reduced price tag and hunt with your buddy if it isn't open during his hunt though, so I guess that's the main thing you do understand.

Edited due to incorrect 84/16 explanation.

 

[BPKHunter]

>LAST EDITED ON Jan-20-15
>AT 08:31?AM (MST)
>

>The split for total elk
>tags in a given year
>IS 84/16 (resident/NR) and the
>statute also requires that NRs
>receive a minimum of 7250
>full price tags. That is
>not the percentage involved in
>the draw themselves.

You are right, I was wrong, I thought the 84/16 split meant each draw the NR's were allocated 16% of the tags. From there I assumed that the 2nd choice would be available, as long as tags were not drawn by first choice applicants, without loss of points.

The reason I make a point of this, is that I thought other NR's might assume the same thing.

Next time I will pull the entire reg book and read it front to back to understand.

I do think the Type 6/7/8 Limited Price tags are a great opportunity for Res and NR alike. I had hoped to scout a unit I might later bull hunt, which required me to try and pull a Type 4 tag in this instance. I can still try.

What I am still confused on is that if the Split for "TOTAL" Elk Tags is 84/16, and these hunts I mentioned do not meet that %, then where are they made up? General?

I need to work less so I can figure this stuff out.

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-20-15 AT 12:51PM (MST)[p]What I am still confused on is that if the Split for "TOTAL" Elk Tags is 84/16, and these hunts I mentioned do not meet that %, then where are they made up? General?
I need to work less so I can figure this stuff out.


NRs draw a minimum total of 7250 full price tags. If the full price tags don't come up to the 7250 the statute requires after the ititial draw is completed, then the G&F goes back through the people who have the General tag listed as their second choice in the higher priced Special Draw and issues tags to those persons. So far every year there have been enough tags left to satisfy all of those and even some that had it as a third choice once or twice and they have even gone into the Random draw to give them a few tags when those third choice applicants were exhausted. The main thing to remember in what you're trying to do is that you can't put a Type 4 tag as your first choice because it's a full price tag that will use your PPs if you get drawn even if it's your second chance at that tag in the random draw that doesn't use PPs. Many people don't realize that can happen. One guy a couple years ago put in for a difficult tag as his first choice and the unit he wanted to draw and not lose his PPs as his second choice. He ended up drawing the only tag available in the random draw for his first choice and ended up eating the tag because his vacation time wasn't within the open dates for that tag and his employer wouldn't allow him to change his vacation time off!

Edited to eliminate my 84/16 tag ratio screwup, LOL!

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-20-15 AT 12:41PM (MST)[p]TG, the 84/16 split is on a per hunt basis. You should have the outline?

BPK, you can't backtrack because you don't have all the info. Other than GEN, the Elk draw reports show accurate tag numbers. The other report you do not get an clear view of is Antelope and Deer Doe tags. In that case, an applicant can apply for 2 tags per app.

 

[TOPGUN]

>TG, the 84/16 split is on
>a per hunt basis. You
>should have the outline?
>
>BPK, you can't backtrack because you
>don't have all the info.
>Other than GEN, the Elk
>draw reports show accurate tag
>numbers. The other report you
>do not get an clear
>view of is Antelope and
>Deer Doe tags. In that
>case, an applicant can apply
>for 2 tags per app.


Well, that's my first mistake for 2015, LOL! I've got too many irons in the fire trying to deal with that 90/10 tag reduction and get final addendum paperwork done on the Eastmans deal with people from all over the country sending me emails about that debacle.

 

[WapitiBob]

No prob. If you need the info I'll send it over.

 

[BPKHunter]

Now I am confused.

So, can you or can't you get a Type 4 tag as a second choice as a NR other than in the Random draws? If not, where do those tags go to?

When I read through the posts above, I don't see the answer to this. What I read is, the reports given don't give you all the info you need to tell the draw odd's, but that NR's do indeed get 16% of the available tags.

Sorry to keep asking for clarificattion. To clarify, if the data just can't be found on the odd's, but I know that tags can be drawn in the Special/Reg((Non-Random) pool as a Second Chance and NOT burn my points, then I would seriously consider that option. Again I am looking at unit 64-4 tag.

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-21-15 AT 08:58AM (MST)[p]Unit 64 didn't have any Type 4 tags offered last year and doesn't again this year, so where are you looking to even ask that question about that particular unit? All 64 has available are full price either sex and Type 6 reduced price cow tags. The latter doesn't use PPs, as it's a straight random draw and it opens on September 1 and has the following restrictions:

"Cow or calf valid within the
Cottonwood Creek drainage off
national forest; also valid within the
Grass Creek drainage downstream of
the Grass Creek/Little Grass Creek
confluence; valid area-wide Nov 15"

 

[BPKHunter]

Meant 62-4

Sorry I am at the hospital with a sick horse and typing on my cell phone with fat fingers.

 

[TOPGUN]

Okay! In regards to your question about drawing a 62-4 tag as a second choice, Like WB stated in his post, according to the limited stats that are available on the G&F odds charts it would be possible, but the chance appears to be well below a 50% shot at it and possibly less than 1/2 that.

 

[WapitiBob]

Answered in post #3

For the unit you are asking about, in the 2014 draw, you had a 2/10 chance at the type 4 as a 2nd choice in the Regular Random draw.
You had a 1/3 chance in the Special Random draw.

 

[BPKHunter]

In trying how better to understand how NR's were allocated 16% of the tags "per hunt", as stated above I found the following in a google search.

http://soswy.state.wy.us/Rules/RULES/3647.pdf

Still clear as mud in figuring how many tags NR are really allocated, and what "second chance" draw odd's we have, other than the more limited Random allocation of 25%, but if anyone else is interested I think the answer is in the regs in that link.

To be clear, for the residents that might feel I am complaining that i am not getting my 16%, I am not. I am just trying to figure my odd's and if I can draw a 16-4 cow elk as a second chance. I realize all states have rules that favor residents over NR's, which I support. Every position has it's pos/neg aspects. In Idaho we have an "Up to 10% rule", so I hear arguments all the time. I am happy I live in a western state with western big game and don't have to live exclusively with NR regs.

Worst case I will apply for a LE Bull first choice, this cow as second, and if I draw neither, will consider picking up a RP Cow off the leftover list for a Dec/Jan meat hunt.

Thanks again for your patience and replies.

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-21-15 AT 02:37PM (MST)[p]

I just gave you your 2014 odds.

As I said earlier you can't look at the draw odds reports and back track trying to see if 16% was given.

The split is 84/16 on a per hunt basis, there's no conspiracy, then the land owners draw. If you don't have those lo tag numbers your spinning your wheels. The nr share is 16%, period, realize that nr lo's draw before we do, and what's left is recompiled and split for our draws. The draw report tag numbers are after the lo draw, that's why the draw report tag quotas may not match the 16%, plus there is rounding for special vs regular, as well as tags from the special moving to the regular. Also, there is no limit on the nr land owners. If enough of them applied they could draw every nr tag for a given hunt.
You're making it a whole lot more complicated than it is. The draw odds will give you an accurate look at the previous years stats, except for GEN and doe/fawn.

 

[TOPGUN]

He sure is and it got to the point where I even made a booboo, LOL! I hope now he understands that based on last year he has a very small chance at a tag and maybe no chance at all if a few more land owners would grab some of the available tags. The draw stats are decent to get an idea on first choice tags, but can't be relied on and it gets very sticky when you start talking second choices, etc. a lot of the time and this is one of them!

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-21-15 AT 02:35PM (MST)[p]



I looked at 62-4.
quota was 75 tags
res 63 nr 12
no LO drew tags
nr split -> special 40% 5, Regular 60% 7
special PP 75% 4; special random 25% 1
special PP issued 0
special random issued 3 (2 over)

4 special PP tags not issued, 4 tags moving to Regular Draw

Regular draw quota was 7, now is 11

Regular PP 75% 9, Regular random 25% 2
regular pp issued, 0
regular random issued 2