I’m already on the record saying I’m okay with the elk changes. Moving tags to the mid-season is fine. Giving whiny archery hunters a little more of September is okay.
What I don’t support, and won’t ever support, is turning large numbers of rifle tags to archery tags and getting rid of entire rifle seasons, which is what a small number of selfish d bags have demanded. Archery hunters have enough tags. Muzzy hunters have enough tags. Rifle hunters have enough tags. If you want to fiddle with the seasons to try and make yourself feel the warm fuzzies, then fine. It’s not going to help with point creep even if anyone has convinced himself it will. It’s not going to make a bit of difference.
But back to the question asked by the OP- I think you’ll see a lot of applicants move off early rifle applications now. If someone had 24 points last year they were looking at 3-4 years before being in the top point pool for the San Juan early rifle tag. (And take another 4 years to clear that pool out.) Now with the reduced tags you are looking at about 8 years until you’re in the top point pool and another 8-9 years to clear that point level out. You could be 16-17 years from being guaranteed to draw that tag if things stayed static. Eventually the masses will figure that out and plans will change.
How much this happens in the first year will be interesting, but we’re going to need 3-4 years in the new elk plan to really have any idea what to expect in the draw. But one thing is sure: these changes to help with point creep were a complete waste. Nothing is changing for point creep, and won’t until they can significantly increase tags across the board, not just between seasons or weapons.