I have read posts like this over the years and have always resisted responding. With this response I may be just opening a can of worms, but here is my opinion. As the developer of the odds system here on MonsterMuleys and HuntersTrailhead, I work with every draw system out there. Though they all have their flaws and what is ?fair? is different to all of us, I truly believe that Utah has the best system of them all. There are three reasons I believe this:
1. It rewards those that have been applying for the longest time.
2. Anyone can draw at any time.
3. Your chances of drawing improve year to year.
If you eliminate the point system all together, items 1 and 3 are eliminated. If you go with a true preference system like Colorado, items 2 and 3 are eliminated. Using either of these systems on a high quality hunt, you could apply forever and never get a permit (just like Utah).
I presented data like this at the ISE show several years ago and thought that it might be helpful here. Using ?quality hunts? already pointed out by others in this post, I have made some comparisons between Utah?s system, the straightup system (no points) and the true preference system. I consider any moose, sheep or bison to be a quality tag, so I used the easier units to draw. If you do this same comparison on the best units, things only get worse.
In the ?Straightup? column (no point system) on the table you can see that your odds are sometimes less than 1% and seldom better than 2% and never really improve. It is very possible that you would never see a tag in this system where in some cases others may draw multiple times (which is another issue altogether). It is all luck of the draw.
The ?Pref Years? column shows how long you would be applying in a true preference system before getting a tag. A kid coming in right now will be applying for at least 40 years and in some cases hundreds of years, before ever having any chance at one of the ?quality? tags used in this example. If you can envision this, the only guys hunting these units would be 60-70 years old and they got the tags only because everyone in front of them died.
The ?UT Transition? column shows how many years you would apply before your odds of drawing are the same as or better than your odds in the straight up system. In the Utah system, a kid has a shot the very first time they apply. In the beginning their odds are really pretty bad, but as they build points, their odds improve and will eventually exceed what their odds would have been in the straight up system ? even though they are only eligible for 50% of the permits.
Although it is not perfect, I have not been able to come up with a better one than what Utah offers. You improve odds by offering more tags or reducing applicants. You offer more tags and the quality is going to suffer. Some believe that this is the way to go. Others believe that we should reduce applicants by increasing the cost of a permit. But most of us think that the cost is too high as it is. Utah offers quality with opportunity ? although I don't love hunting spikes and yearling bucks.
I am sure that there are many that disagree, but that is my opinion after years of working with all of the various systems. Sorry for the long read.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com