Draw odds

[Ncole]

Could anyone explain how Wyomings draw works? I've got 7 points and the tag I'd like to get this year says 79% chance with 0. If I put that as my second choice do I have a chance to draw it or can you only draw your second chance if it can be draw with 0 or if it goes to leftover?

 

[HiMtnHntr]

You can only draw a second choice after all the first choices are considered. So, in your example, no, you couldn't draw it. In other words, there has to be a surplus of tags after first choice apps are considered in the pp and random draw. However, it does depend on whether or not your are in the regular or special draw. Often, not always, the special draw offers better odds at a second choice, but of course you have to pay the extra money.

 

[Ncole]

Ok thanks. I was hoping that wasn't the case but wasn't sure. I guess I'll start researching some areas to burn some points. I've been wanting 102 but don't really want to wait. Any other suggestions?

 

[elks96]

Region G is the money tag right now....

 

[Ncole]

Yeah it sounds like it. I've thought about that to. I just figured that trying to figure out one unit would be a little easier than a big region I've never been in but it might be worth a shot. Thanks for the responses.

 

[TOPGUN]

>Region G is the money tag
>right now....


Yep, no doubt about it!

 

[Triple_BB]

I'd take 89 & 90 over G right now based on what I saw last winter. And I'd only call G the money area if I was using horses. Probably 90% of the guys in G never get more than a mile from the road.
Lots of small bucks come out of G that never make it on the internet.

 

[2_Point]

True, but he can't draw 89 or 90 with 7 points and he is years behind the top point level.

Draw the G tag and go for the adventure because it might be the only time you will be able to draw it. In the following years you can hunt the family place every year or two.

 

[huntfishall1]

Be sure to check the draw results for the unit in the "Random Draw" as well. The 21% of applicants that didn't draw with 0 points in the "pref point" drawing were then placed in the random draw and eligible for those tags. Depending on how many people spilled over into the the random draw and how many tags were available there is a slight chance it could be drawn as second choice.

>Could anyone explain how Wyomings draw
>works? I've got 7 points
>and the tag I'd like
>to get this year says
>79% chance with 0. If
>I put that as my
>second choice do I have
>a chance to draw it
>or can you only draw
>your second chance if it
>can be draw with 0
>or if it goes to
>leftover?

 

[Ncole]

Thanks I didn't think about that

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-21-16 AT 12:16PM (MST)[p]>Thanks I didn't think about that
>

Don't think about it too hard, as there was only one tag in each of those drawings with 75 and 125 applicants, respectively. I do agree with BBB that you need horses to get back in and have a good hunt in G. That's what we did last September and took two nice bucks that are pictured in a Region G thread here on this Forum last Fall. What our other member mentioned about the random is called a second chance, not second choice!

 

[huntfishall1]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-21-16 AT 07:19PM (MST)[p]You might be getting things confused. The original poster mentioned unit 102 but also that he wants to basically save his points up for that unit and try to draw a different unit as second choice.

It can be second choice in the random draw too. Doesn't happen often but for someone that wants to keep his pref points and draw a second choice tag it's always a good idea to see if any tags are available as second choice in BOTH the pref point draw and random draw for a particular unit. General elk tags were a good example of this situation up until a year or so ago - if someone only looked at pref point draw it appeared very few if any tags were being drawn as second choice, but looking at the random draw it showed another story and that person could have actually draw as second choice. Demand has increased so this is no longer the case but it does illustrate what I'm talking about>LAST EDITED ON Apr-21-16
>AT 12:16?PM (MST)
>
>>Thanks I didn't think about that
>>
>
>Don't think about it too hard,
>as there was only one
>tag in each of those
>drawings with 75 and 125
>applicants, respectively. I do
>agree with BBB that you
>need horses to get back
>in and have a good
>hunt in G. That's
>what we did last September
>and took two nice bucks
>that are pictured in a
>Region G thread here on
>this Forum last Fall.
>What our other member mentioned
>about the random is called
>a second chance, not second
>choice!

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-21-16 AT 09:17PM (MST)[p]"Doesn't happen often but for someone that wants to keep his pref points and draw a second choice tag it's always a good idea to see if any tags are available as second choice in BOTH the pref point draw and random draw for a particular unit."

The PP side of both the special and Regular draws are 1st choice only.
To check prior years odds of a 2nd choice you just need to look at the Random draw reports for Special and Regular, comparing quota available to 1st choice apps. Any remainder will drop to the 2nd choice apps. That remainder vs 2nd choice apps will give you your odds.

 

[huntfishall1]

Wapitibob - yes exactly, for second choice availability of tags the critical part is the random draw odds table. I don't know why topgun insists in the random draw its not second choice but in his words it's only "second chance". It's really both in the random draw. To me "second chance" only refers to the fact that those applicants that didn't draw one of the tags in the pref point draw would have another shot at get a tag in the random draw.

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-22-16 AT 08:53AM (MST)[p]>Wapitibob - yes exactly, for second
>choice availability of tags the
>critical part is the random
>draw odds table. I don't
>know why topgun insists in
>the random draw its not
>second choice but in his
>words it's only "second chance".
>It's really both in the
>random draw. To me "second
>chance" only refers to the
>fact that those applicants that
>didn't draw one of the
>tags in the pref point
>draw would have another shot
>at get a tag in
>the random draw.

You are now putting words in my mouth that were not stated! I was only talking about the guy having a second chance in the random draw for his first choice. Nothing I stated was referring to a second choice and that's why I made that statement you are questioning. The random draw is exactly what WB mentioned and all the first choice tag applicants have to be filled before you have a "chance" at your second "choice" in the random draw. That is exactly why I used the word chance because you always have a second chance in the random draw for your first choice IF there are tags available. In the scenario I mentioned, there was only one tag available in the random draw for his first choice and his chances with the number of applicants thrown into that draw that didn't get it in the PP side would have been less than 1/2%. Yes, he has a chance at his second choice tag IF there are any left after all the first choice applicants for those are satisfied, so I think we're on the same page there. PS: You are also incorrect in your statement regarding the second choice elk tags in the Special Draw. There was no way you could look in the G&F odds and know how many tags were issued to second choice applicants because the G&F doesn't post that follow up draw they use to come up to their 7250 total NR elk tags the Statute requires. A coupe years ago it went from 100% to 50% to 0% in the 2016 draw.

 

[huntfishall1]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-22-16 AT 09:13AM (MST)[p]Topgun - I think were were trying to help the original poster in different ways! In my first post here i was simply trying to make sure he understood to look at the random draw tables. If you read his first post it appears he was not looking at that information to figure out if any second choice tags were available. He appeared to be only looking at the pref point tables.


>>Wapitibob - yes exactly, for second
>>choice availability of tags the
>>critical part is the random
>>draw odds table. I don't
>>know why topgun insists in
>>the random draw its not
>>second choice but in his
>>words it's only "second chance".
>>It's really both in the
>>random draw. To me "second
>>chance" only refers to the
>>fact that those applicants that
>>didn't draw one of the
>>tags in the pref point
>>draw would have another shot
>>at get a tag in
>>the random draw.
>
>The random draw is exactly what
>WB mentioned and all the
>first choice tag applicants have
>to be filled before you
>have a "chance" at your
>second "choice" in the random
>draw. That is exactly
>why I used the word
>chance because you always have
>a second chance in the
>random draw for your first
>choice if there are tags
>available. In the scenario
>I mentioned, there was only
>one tag available in the
>random draw for his first
>choice and his chances with
>the number of applicants thrown
>into that draw that didn't
>get it in the PP
>side would have been less
>than 1/2%. Yes, he
>has a chance at his
>second choice tag IF there
>are any left after all
>the first choice applicants are
>satisfied, so I think we're
>on the same page there.
>

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Apr-22-16 AT 09:08AM (MST)[p]huntfishall1---The draws are all independent of each other. It's just that people get shuffled around like you mentioned if they are unsuccessful in the PP draws. The PP draws are held first and everyone, regardless of point totals goes into them. If there aren't enough with PPs to satisfy the total tag numbers in that draw then those with no PPs can actually draw a tag in that draw. Once the tags are gone in that draw, regardless of your PPs, then everyone who didn't draw a tag goes into the random draw on an equal basis with no PPs used. If there are people left that don't draw and there are tags left for their second choice, then they have a chance at that tag. I spelled this out just in case a newbie reads this thread so they know how things work in Wyoming. Please refer to the last post I made regarding the PS on elk to let you know how that works and why.

 

[huntfishall1]

Yes the draws are all done "independently", but the pool of people and odds in the random draw are somewhat "dependent" on how the pref point draw goes since its done first. I think we are on the same page here in how it works but just use different terms, etc.

Also, yes on the general elk drawing - it is a special situation due to the mandated total number of NR tags and the tables aren't accurate. As you know very few people know about that twist. But I was just using that to illustrate a point on how things work. It can be applied to all the other drawings if I understand correctly.

>LAST EDITED ON Apr-22-16
>AT 09:08?AM (MST)
>
>huntfishall1---The draws are all independent of
>each other. It's just
>that people get shuffled around
>like you mentioned if they
>are unsuccessful in the PP
>draws. The PP draws
>are held first and everyone,
>regardless of point totals goes
>into them. If there
>aren't enough with PPs to
>satisfy the total tag numbers
>in that draw then those
>with no PPs can actually
>draw a tag in that
>draw. Once the tags are
>gone in that draw, regardless
>of your PPs, then
>everyone who didn't draw a
>tag goes into the random
>draw on an equal basis
>with no PPs used.
>If there are people left
>that don't draw and there
>are tags left for their
>second choice, then they have
>a chance at that tag.
> I spelled this out
>just in case a newbie
>reads this thread so they
>know how things work in
>Wyoming. Please refer to
>the last post I made
>regarding the PS on elk
>to let you know how
>that works and why.

 

[Ncole]

Thanks I appreciate everybody's help and advice. I think I've decided that I'm going to put in for G this year and try to get as much info on it as I can and give it a try. I've got a friend who said he's up for going with me. I'm gonna keep my expectations reasonable due to the fact I've never been there and I don't have horses. I'd be really happy to explore some new country and if I can take a decent buck in the process awesome. I know that can mean different things to different people but what I consider 22-26" or 160-170" type buck. Hopefully I'll be able to try the archery a little and go back up on the rifle if it doesn't work out. I hope my expectations are reasonable. Any other advice and opinions are appreciated. Thanks

 

[TOPGUN]

Ncole---If you plan to hunt Region G I would seriously look at calling Wyoming Horses in the Star Valley that advertise on this site. Whether you use one to ride up from a trailhead each morning before daylight or use one to pack your supplies up to a bivy camp and stay up high for a few days a horse is the way to go in that high country. We rode up in from the trail heads before daylight from 5 to almost 10 miles to be ready to glass as it got light. If you don't have a horse I would say you'll need to backpack up in and set up a camp because there is no way you could be up in good areas on foot each morning. Also, regardless of what you do you'll need to figure on dropping a lot of elevation for the water you'll need since there is little, if any, up high.

 

[WapitiBob]

The mandated NR full price Elk tag quota is for NR Elk only. There are no secondary quotas for Deer/Antelope.

 

[gasman]

>Thanks I appreciate everybody's help and
>advice. I think I've decided
>that I'm going to put
>in for G this year
>and try to get as
>much info on it as
>I can and give it
>a try. I've got a
>friend who said he's up
>for going with me. I'm
>gonna keep my expectations reasonable
>due to the fact I've
>never been there and I
>don't have horses. I'd be
>really happy to explore some
>new country and if I
>can take a decent buck
>in the process awesome. I
>know that can mean different
>things to different people but
>what I consider 22-26" or
>160-170" type buck. Hopefully I'll
>be able to try the
>archery a little and go
>back up on the rifle
>if it doesn't work out.
>I hope my expectations are
>reasonable. Any other advice and
>opinions are appreciated. Thanks


This is an absolutely achievable and realistic goal in G. Last year on the rifle hunt I passed 8-10 bucks in this range. I can help out a little, it was my first year hunting it, but I live in Kemmerer now and will be up there a lot this summer. PM if you're interested.

 

[Ncole]

Awesome thank you I appreciate all the help I can get. I'll get in touch with you soon.

 

[Ncole]

Awesome thank you I really appreciate all the help I can get. I'll be in touch.

 

[BillyBoB]

I sent you a personal message Ncole



"Wildlife and its habitat cannot speak. So
we must and we will."
Theadore Roosevelt

 

[Tknez]

First off you do not need horses to have a great hunt in G! I do it every year without horses and have awesome hunt every year!
Now you have to be in great shape but if you are then I advise going off your back. Also horses imo actually hurt your hunt up there for a few reasons I wont go into here.
Also glad for you that you decided to not hold out for 102! That area has really went down hill in the last 7 years or so. Imo it really isn't even worth putting in for now.
If you want more info shoot me a pm!