Draw odds question......

[honkerdwn]

Wondering if someone could shed some light on the draw odds for me. I was looking through all the draw odds for mule deer as a none resident and noticed there are certain units that have 0 for Total Quota but yet it still shows so many applicants for 1st, 2nd,and 3rd draws. Being a rookie at applying in Wyoming at first glance I would assume that "0 Total Quota" means zero points available for non residents.
Am I assuming correct? If not how does this work for applying for those units?

I would appreciate any insight to this question.

Thanks,
HD

 

[BigChiefJ]

I believe the quota of zero means no tags were available for that hunt.

 

[junior]

A lot of guys put in as first choice, a unit like you have suggested, to insure they wont draw there first choice and lose points. Then they put the one they realy want as second.

Long story short, you use points only if you draw first choice.

Why guys would list that unit as a second choice is beyond me?

Also, some quota are set after the application period. So there is a chance that g&f may add or subtract tags before the draw.

 

[c3]

You must be looking at the random draw odds. There are 4 tiers to the Wyoming system basically.

1. NR - Special based on preference points
2. NR - Regular based on preference points
4. NR - Special Random
5. NR - Regular Random

Some units have no tags for either of the randoms, yet people still put in hoping there might be one available. I used to put in for 31 elk knowing that there were no random tags back then so that I could draw a gen as a second choice and still keep building points. That doesn't work anymore, but there is some reason to put in for a unit that has no tags so you might have a chance at a second choice and keep building points.

You have to look at each odds report to see the total number of tags available and if they actually had any regular random tags last year.

Cheers, Pete

 

[LamBow]

25% of the nres. total tag quota goes to the random draw. Anyone can draw in the random draw regardless of how many points you have. So you can draw in the random draw with 0 point . Sometimes there is 0 quota for the nres random draw. If there was 0 quota that means you had no chance of drawing in the random draw that year.

 

[honkerdwn]

Thanks for all the feedback. That could be a huge mistake for a guy if he wasn't paying attention. I have been collecting points for a couple years and have talked to a couple different people that suggested units other than the usual G and H. I narrowed it down to a particular unit I wanted to try but when I got looking at the odds it had 0 Quota for the last couple years. I'm not going to point fingers or mention any names but I spoke to a well known individual that is from Wyoming at a sportsmen's show and he even highly suggested that unit. I guess this should be a warning to everyone to do their homework. Unless I'm still misunderstanding, but I think I'm getting the gist of it now.

Thanks again fella's,
HD

 

[junior]

What unit?

 

[LamBow]

Not sure why at least 1 tag doesn't make it to the random draw. I was thinking because group applications where drawn in the preference point draw. Was hoping someone would chime in on that.

 

[honkerdwn]

I was interested in unit 130 type 1.

 

[Forkhorn]

130 has never had a random tag

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Feb-01-18 AT 11:21AM (MST)[p]>Not sure why at least 1
>tag doesn't make it to
>the random draw. I was
>thinking because group applications where
>drawn in the preference point
>draw. Was hoping someone would
>chime in on that.


There have to be enough total NR tags for a unit the way the percentages are set up where 60% goes to the Regular PP Draw and 40% goes to the Special PP Draw before any tags will go to the Random Draws. Last year 130-1 only had a total of 4 tags so 2 went to each of the PP Draws and that left none for the Random Draws. That will always happen when a unit has a single digit tag total available. The guy that told the OP what he did obviously meant that 130-1 was a great unit, but what he didn't mention was that even with max preference points in either of these draws the draw percentage for those few tags with the number of applicants with max points make it like playing power ball with the chances of drawing being so low. Party applicants would have nothing to do with it. It's simply that when the Random Draws only get 25% of the tags it takes a decent number of tags to get past the two PP Draws to have any Random tags available. What junior mentioned about changes after the application period will only happen with NR elk that is applied for in January and drawn in February. The Commission signs off on final totals and season dates the end of April each year and that gives everyone a month to look at the stats before the May 31 application period is over for deer and antelope.

 

[WapitiBob]

And there are hunts where a significant number of licenses are drawn by nr landowners, which come right off the top before the public draws.

 

[TOPGUN]

>And there are hunts where a
>significant number of licenses are
>drawn by nr landowners, which
>come right off the top
>before the public draws.

Yep, and that can preclude any tags even being offered in the public draws we're talking about!

 

[LamBow]

Thanks for the clarification TG And WB. Much appreciated.

 

[SDBugler]

"there are certain units that have 0 for Total Quota but yet it still shows so many applicants for 1st, 2nd,and 3rd draws"

There are two reasons that I can think of:
1) As Junior mentioned above, some people apply for a unit with no chance to draw as a first choice so they can build a point and then draw their second choice.

2) If you look at the example of unit 130-1 above. There were only 2 tags available in the special preference points draw and 2 tags in the regular preference points draw. There were not enough tags available to get a tag into the random draw for either regular or special drawings (this is all based on % of available tags). 74 people applied for the regular PP draw. Two of those people drew with 11 points. The 72 that didn't draw automatically get entered into the regular random draw even though there wasn't a tag available. Same with the special PP draw. 93 people applied for the two tags. The 91 that didn't draw automatically get entered into the special random draw even though there wasn't a tag available. Everyone gets "entered" into the first choice PP draw even if they don't have any points and even if they have no chance to draw based on number of points. The unsuccessful applicants then get dropped down into the random draw even if no tag is available.


I have no idea why people would apply for a unit as a second or third choice that has no random tags available. They are just wasting their choices or don't understand the system.

 

[honkerdwn]

Thanks for all the input on this subject. Clears things up pretty good for me now. Guess ill go to plan B, C, or D, whatever that may be.

Thanks again!

HD

 

[LamBow]

From what I'm seeing it looks like there needs to be a total quota of 8 nr tags for a specific type hunt for 2 tags to go to the random draw.

 

[LamBow]

Is 8 a single digit ?

 

[LamBow]

TOPGUN
Is 8 a single digit?

 

[junior]

Top must be busy. I think he meant in general, less than 10= a single digit.
All we can go on is the odds report from last year to know if there may be a random tag available.

 

[TOPGUN]

>Top must be busy. I think
>he meant in general, less
>than 10= a single digit.
>
>All we can go on is
>the odds report from last
>year to know if there
>may be a random tag
>available.


Yep; I'm starting the process of a major bathroom/kitchen remodel and had my attention on that quite a bit yesterday. I really didn't think I needed to "splain" that "single digit" means 9 or less. In case some are not aware when they look at the draw odds and see the sign < it means "less than" <= means equal to or less than

 

[LamBow]

I think I was trying to say the minimum quota is 8 for a tag to make it to the random draw but yes I agree with junior. I definitely better understand percentages for regular and special now. Thanks guys.