B
brownndown
Guest
First timer here and Im wondering how to read an area specific draw chart or for a better word..."understand them"...nothings labeled
Stack em like cord wood!!!
Stack em like cord wood!!!
Browndown,
I am the one that produces the draw odds database here on MonsterMuleys. I am not sure what you are looking for, but I will try to explain the charts.
Assuming that you have drilled all the way down to a specific state, species, unit and weapon choice, you should be looking at two tables and a graph. The top table indicates the drawing odds at each point level for the past 5 years. The point level is indicated across the top margin and the years are down the left. The second table shows the number of applicants in each point level - again for the past 5 years. The point level is still across the top margin and the years are down the left. The graph shows the sum of all applications each year for this particular hunt.
If you entered the number of points you currently have for this hunt it will be highlighted in blue. Then depending on which state you are researching there may be Green or Yellow boxes. The yellow indicate where the bonus tags were awarded and the green indicate where in a preference point system you were guaranteed a tag.
I hope that this helps but if you have any other questions, feel free to ask.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
I am the one that produces the draw odds database here on MonsterMuleys. I am not sure what you are looking for, but I will try to explain the charts.
Assuming that you have drilled all the way down to a specific state, species, unit and weapon choice, you should be looking at two tables and a graph. The top table indicates the drawing odds at each point level for the past 5 years. The point level is indicated across the top margin and the years are down the left. The second table shows the number of applicants in each point level - again for the past 5 years. The point level is still across the top margin and the years are down the left. The graph shows the sum of all applications each year for this particular hunt.
If you entered the number of points you currently have for this hunt it will be highlighted in blue. Then depending on which state you are researching there may be Green or Yellow boxes. The yellow indicate where the bonus tags were awarded and the green indicate where in a preference point system you were guaranteed a tag.
I hope that this helps but if you have any other questions, feel free to ask.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
B
brownndown
Guest
Alright Jon that is a huge help, looking at wyoming antelope hunt and have a few units in mind already...I guess the only thing I dont follow quite yet would be the percentages..cuz most say 100%..what do they signify?...Draw success???
Stack em like cord wood!!!
Stack em like cord wood!!!
Browndown,
What Kilowatt said is mostly correct. If it says 100% the odds of drawing during that year at that point level was a guaranteed tag. However, there is no guarantee that things will remain the same in the 2011 drawings - things can and do change. To get a better idea, be sure to look at several years history. If it says 100% for several years in a row, you can be pretty sure that it will be again in the coming year. - Good Luck!!
Why,
According to the Utah Division of Wildlife application reports, there were no applicants with 17 points in either the resident or non-resident pools for the roadless book cliffs. If you can prove that you applied for that hunt with 17 points (application receipt), I would be on the phone or in the DWR office demanding to know what happened. However, there is one possibility that you should consider. If you applied with someone that had fewer points than you did, you were not at the 17 point level. You need to average your points together and round down. The result of that is the point level you were competing in. Also, as a non-resident if you applied with someone, you could not draw as there were only 2 permits available. One went in the bonus draw and the other went in the random draw. They could not be awarded to a group application. Amazingly, I find several instances of that happening every year.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
What Kilowatt said is mostly correct. If it says 100% the odds of drawing during that year at that point level was a guaranteed tag. However, there is no guarantee that things will remain the same in the 2011 drawings - things can and do change. To get a better idea, be sure to look at several years history. If it says 100% for several years in a row, you can be pretty sure that it will be again in the coming year. - Good Luck!!
Why,
According to the Utah Division of Wildlife application reports, there were no applicants with 17 points in either the resident or non-resident pools for the roadless book cliffs. If you can prove that you applied for that hunt with 17 points (application receipt), I would be on the phone or in the DWR office demanding to know what happened. However, there is one possibility that you should consider. If you applied with someone that had fewer points than you did, you were not at the 17 point level. You need to average your points together and round down. The result of that is the point level you were competing in. Also, as a non-resident if you applied with someone, you could not draw as there were only 2 permits available. One went in the bonus draw and the other went in the random draw. They could not be awarded to a group application. Amazingly, I find several instances of that happening every year.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
Zeke
Long Time Member
- Messages
- 10,603
I'll pipe up.
Many things could have happened with the books elk app BUT through the years I've heard people say that they have MAX points yet didn't draw. Usually they are mistaken as to how many points they actually had at the time of application or application mistakes were made by them.
I was just told, by a guy at Cabelas, that he didn't draw a regular Wasatch LE elk tag even though he had max points.
Impossible!
After working with the public for 40 years I've learned to take things with a grain of salt.
Respectfully,
Zeke
Many things could have happened with the books elk app BUT through the years I've heard people say that they have MAX points yet didn't draw. Usually they are mistaken as to how many points they actually had at the time of application or application mistakes were made by them.
I was just told, by a guy at Cabelas, that he didn't draw a regular Wasatch LE elk tag even though he had max points.
Impossible!
After working with the public for 40 years I've learned to take things with a grain of salt.
Respectfully,
Zeke
B
brownndown
Guest
Ok that helps me alot guys and ya JDC Wayne from WFG said the same thing about how things are changing every yr, but I did notice some units are 100 since like 2006...so what you are saying is that if a unit is 100% shoe in tags then I assume it will aholes to elbows with hunters in one area or Im I way off because of all the land available in an area? Could you use a unit say 17 as an example and give me the breakdown of what each numbers represent in each column if its not to much trouble?..Thanks
Stack em like cord wood!!!
Stack em like cord wood!!!
Browndown,
It is a bit tough to explain this in text form but I will do the best I can. I have included a screenshot and modified it in trying to help you understand this.
First off, unit 17 is probably not the best example as all point levels have been guaranteed a tag for the past 5 years. I am not sure why, but based on unit 17's location in the state, I assume there is extensive private land and difficult access.
For this example, I have used the results of the 2010 drawing in unit 47. The preference tags offered in 2010 are circled in red - there were 87. All applicants with an average of 2.5 points or more were guaranteed a permit - there were 30. This leaves 57 preference tags to be awarded at the 2 point level. Since there were more applicants (69) than available tags, the odds of drawing at 2 points was 82.6% (57/69=.826). This left 12 applicants in the 2 point level to compete in the random drawing with the 487 applicants that did not have enough points to compete in the preference draw - those with 0 to 1.5 points.
The number of points you have does not matter in the random drawing. Everyone has one chance to draw. With 28 random tags available and 499 applicants, the odds come out to be 5.6% (28/499=.056)
I hope that this is easy enough to understand. If not, I have shot you my contact information in a PM so feel free to give me a call. It is much easier to explain live.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
It is a bit tough to explain this in text form but I will do the best I can. I have included a screenshot and modified it in trying to help you understand this.
First off, unit 17 is probably not the best example as all point levels have been guaranteed a tag for the past 5 years. I am not sure why, but based on unit 17's location in the state, I assume there is extensive private land and difficult access.
For this example, I have used the results of the 2010 drawing in unit 47. The preference tags offered in 2010 are circled in red - there were 87. All applicants with an average of 2.5 points or more were guaranteed a permit - there were 30. This leaves 57 preference tags to be awarded at the 2 point level. Since there were more applicants (69) than available tags, the odds of drawing at 2 points was 82.6% (57/69=.826). This left 12 applicants in the 2 point level to compete in the random drawing with the 487 applicants that did not have enough points to compete in the preference draw - those with 0 to 1.5 points.
The number of points you have does not matter in the random drawing. Everyone has one chance to draw. With 28 random tags available and 499 applicants, the odds come out to be 5.6% (28/499=.056)
I hope that this is easy enough to understand. If not, I have shot you my contact information in a PM so feel free to give me a call. It is much easier to explain live.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
muzzhunter
Active Member
- Messages
- 723
JDC, just wanted to give you a shout and say thanks for putting these draw odds together. I use them a lot every year and I'm sure there are a ton of other guys that do too. Just wanted to say thanks for your hard work!
Dave
Dave
B
brownndown
Guest
Ok Thanks alot Jon!....I think I understand everything now...what is the difference between the random and preference tags? Thanks again for providing us with this very useful tool!
Stack em like cord wood!!!
Stack em like cord wood!!!
LAST EDITED ON Oct-04-10 AT 08:14AM (MST)[p]Browndown,
Preference tags are awarded to those with the most points. Those with more points receive "PREFERENCE" over those with fewer points. If there are permits still available when the applicants in the top point level are exahusted, the permits will be awarded to the next level down. This will continue until all preference tags are awarded. The random tags are awarded to anyone at any point level reguardless of how many points they may have accumulated.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
Preference tags are awarded to those with the most points. Those with more points receive "PREFERENCE" over those with fewer points. If there are permits still available when the applicants in the top point level are exahusted, the permits will be awarded to the next level down. This will continue until all preference tags are awarded. The random tags are awarded to anyone at any point level reguardless of how many points they may have accumulated.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
B
brownndown
Guest
Ok that makes sense JDC!...So worse case scenario a guy like myself with only one pref pt should at least draw a random tag?
Stack em like cord wood!!!
Stack em like cord wood!!!
Grizzly,
You are correct. Wyoming does offer a 75%/25% split between the preference pool and the random pool. Thanks for pointing that out.
Zeke,
I drew my desert bighorn tag 4 years ago. Since I can't draw again, I think that with all this "free" odds information you could have him sign that tag over to me. What do you think? What unit will I be hunting? lol
Thank you to everyone that has given me the possitive feedback. It is a lot of work pulling this together every year but well worth it when I get that feedback and hear that my efforts have helped someone draw a tag. Arizona should be up shortly.
Good luck to all....It is only 3 months until the first application periods begin!!!!
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
You are correct. Wyoming does offer a 75%/25% split between the preference pool and the random pool. Thanks for pointing that out.
Zeke,
I drew my desert bighorn tag 4 years ago. Since I can't draw again, I think that with all this "free" odds information you could have him sign that tag over to me. What do you think? What unit will I be hunting? lol
Thank you to everyone that has given me the possitive feedback. It is a lot of work pulling this together every year but well worth it when I get that feedback and hear that my efforts have helped someone draw a tag. Arizona should be up shortly.
Good luck to all....It is only 3 months until the first application periods begin!!!!
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
Browndown,
One preference point will not guarantee you a random tag although that one point will guarantee you a tag on some units. You used unit 17 as an example. Based on the 5 year history you will draw that tag. However, on unit 47 that I used in my example, you will likely have odds somewhere in the 5% to 7% range.
Now at this point, there is one more thing that I need to throw at you. Wyoming offers what they call a "Special" tag - you may already be familiar with this. However, this tag has the same season dates and hunt boundaries as a "Regular" tag. The only difference is that it costs more. Instead of paying $286 you will pay $526. The concept behind this is that if you charge more, fewer people will apply thus the odds of drawing will be better.
With this in mind and using unit 47 as the example again, your odds with 1 point will likely be a guaranteed tag where it was only about 5% in the regular drawing. However, if you are considering applying for the special tag, make sure that your 1 point is not going to guarantee you a tag in the regular drawing. There is no point in spending the additional money if it is not necessary.
This is just something you should consider depending on which unit you are planning on applying for.
Good luck,
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
One preference point will not guarantee you a random tag although that one point will guarantee you a tag on some units. You used unit 17 as an example. Based on the 5 year history you will draw that tag. However, on unit 47 that I used in my example, you will likely have odds somewhere in the 5% to 7% range.
Now at this point, there is one more thing that I need to throw at you. Wyoming offers what they call a "Special" tag - you may already be familiar with this. However, this tag has the same season dates and hunt boundaries as a "Regular" tag. The only difference is that it costs more. Instead of paying $286 you will pay $526. The concept behind this is that if you charge more, fewer people will apply thus the odds of drawing will be better.
With this in mind and using unit 47 as the example again, your odds with 1 point will likely be a guaranteed tag where it was only about 5% in the regular drawing. However, if you are considering applying for the special tag, make sure that your 1 point is not going to guarantee you a tag in the regular drawing. There is no point in spending the additional money if it is not necessary.
This is just something you should consider depending on which unit you are planning on applying for.
Good luck,
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
N
newbeestl
Guest
JDC, I throw my thanks out here as well. I think what you do it great!
Here's a complicated question I once knew the answer to.... Using 47 as an example again, let's say WY is going to issue 100 tags for that unit. How many of those 100 go to residents, how many go to non-residents, and of those that go to non-residents, how many for special, how many for pref points and how many for just random? Basically, how would that 100 break out?
Here's a complicated question I once knew the answer to.... Using 47 as an example again, let's say WY is going to issue 100 tags for that unit. How many of those 100 go to residents, how many go to non-residents, and of those that go to non-residents, how many for special, how many for pref points and how many for just random? Basically, how would that 100 break out?
newbeestl,
That is not too comlicated of a question - just a lot of parts.
For elk, deer and pronghorn, Wyoming alocates 20% of the total tags to the non-resident. Then within that 20% they allocate 60% to the regular drawing and 40% to the special drawing. Then those percentages are broken down one more time for the preference vs. random pools. 75% are allocated to the preference drawing and 25% go to the random drawing.
So using your 100 tag example,
Resident - 80 tags
Non-Res Regular Pref - 9 tags
Non-Res Regular Rand - 3 tags
Non-Res Special Pref - 6 tags
Non-Res Special Rand - 2 tags
Things are a little different if you are talking moose and sheep. There is still the 80/20 split between resident and non-resident and a 75/25 split in the preference vs. random drawing. However, residents get to participate in the preference point system with these two species and there is not a special drawing.
I hope that this answers your question.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
That is not too comlicated of a question - just a lot of parts.
For elk, deer and pronghorn, Wyoming alocates 20% of the total tags to the non-resident. Then within that 20% they allocate 60% to the regular drawing and 40% to the special drawing. Then those percentages are broken down one more time for the preference vs. random pools. 75% are allocated to the preference drawing and 25% go to the random drawing.
So using your 100 tag example,
Resident - 80 tags
Non-Res Regular Pref - 9 tags
Non-Res Regular Rand - 3 tags
Non-Res Special Pref - 6 tags
Non-Res Special Rand - 2 tags
Things are a little different if you are talking moose and sheep. There is still the 80/20 split between resident and non-resident and a 75/25 split in the preference vs. random drawing. However, residents get to participate in the preference point system with these two species and there is not a special drawing.
I hope that this answers your question.
Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
