Cc hits Begin!

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ruthunter

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Who got there cards hit? Based on history I should of drawn my deer tag but no hits yet. I think most units will see a huge point creep happening this year. Congrats to everyone who drew!
 
Checked several other sites. This first post is literally the only mention of anything happening that I could find. Hmmmm?????
 
I have seen it on several sites but the hits are really slow. Don’t they know our productivity just hit the floor until we get the emails or credit card charges?
 
Nothing yet for me. In with 19 NR points for 12A West early. I was pretty confident I would draw. Starting to get nervous now.
 
I think it’s over. A lot of eyes bout to get opened on point creep in this new world we are living in. There’ll be a few stragglers, mostly just people who don’t know how to check pending transactions on their bank accounts like usual.
 
bragabit said:
Nothing yet for me. In with 19 NR points for 12A West early. I was pretty confident I would draw. Starting to get nervous now.
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There is an unprecedented number of NR that thought they were gonna draw late kaibab or strip someday that are all realizing that’s never gonna happen. There’s only 15 bonus tags and THOUSANDS of guys with 20+ points, I bet it takes 21-22 for 12aw early this year. Crappy thing is it’s gonna all the sudden wake a bunch of dudes up when they see that and it’ll never come back down. Kaibab archery will follow. Expect that to take 20+ points within 5 years from now.
 
1184 people with 20+ deer points

Later dates , good moisture , and some great bucks killed last year.

Im not gonna say I’m shocked if 12aw creeps but I didn’t expect 5-6 points.
 
yotebuster17 said:
There is an unprecedented number of NR that thought they were gonna draw late kaibab or strip someday that are all realizing that’s never gonna happen. There’s only 15 bonus tags and THOUSANDS of guys with 20+ points, I bet it takes 21-22 for 12aw early this year. Crappy thing is it’s gonna all the sudden wake a bunch of dudes up when they see that and it’ll never come back down. Kaibab archery will follow. Expect that to take 20+ points within 5 years from now.
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Yep I’m 1 under max and didn’t draw 12AW late ( I knew that would probably happen ). I’m gonna have to look at everything really close next year and see what I can draw and be done with it.
 
oilcan said:
Yep I’m 1 under max and didn’t draw 12AW late ( I knew that would probably happen ). I’m gonna have to look at everything really close next year and see what I can draw and be done with it.
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You might have a chance someday if you’re young enough. There’ll come a day where early kaibab tags will take 35-40 points unfortunately. Late tags will just be a matter of whether guys can outlive other guys.
 
Everything lined up for this draw. Back to back great monsoon seasons, followed by an incredible winter and then that final burst of beneficial rain for a week in mid-May.

Add to that some good dates, all pointed to alot of people that were just buying points for years to finally cash out!
 
yotebuster17 said:
You might have a chance someday if you’re young enough. There’ll come a day where early kaibab tags will take 35-40 points unfortunately. Late tags will just be a matter of whether guys can outlive other guys.
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I’m 56 but I don’t want to draw when I’m 75 either.
I think you will see more and more max guys hunting the Late Kaibab, especially if they hire a guide. I know two that did last year and both killed 200”+ bucks.
 
Skykarp said:
this is also a product of the system change going from essentially a PP system to giving 80% of the tags away randomly
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They also really cut the tag numbers down on Kaibab archery. I was drawing every other year as a non resident with a hunter safety and loyalty point. I just took it for granted. If im lucky I will draw one more time.
 
I'm probably off, but I'm not sure the draw went as expected for g&f. There is literally no one talking about tags, let alone the high point holders. Usually, I would see several hundred posts of guys with tags between all of the social media platforms and I haven't seen hardly anything....just my 2 cents.
 
I don’t think it’s done. I haven’t seen (1) post on a sheep hit. I think around 4pm a big wave will get hit just like the elk/antelope draw. 20 min and counting.
 
Last year. Guy's we're getting hit for 3 days. Either the draw is drug out or cards are delayed reporting.
 
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!

Every year on every draw cycle this same thread happens..... "draw has started" "it think it is just starting cards should all be charged soon" "I can't believe I didn't draw I had such and such number of points" "point creep is probably crazy this year" "can't believe point creep was so bad" "it's a perfect year and people are tired of waiting so they are dumping points" ETC....

Next post will be the annual "should we change the draw system" post.

How many years does it have to happen before people figure out that it is lottery type system and it is purely luck even if they have a bunch of points. Very few draw in the max pool and when there are thousands of other guys with the same amount of points it means you are just another random person in the hat.

The thing about Arizona is we very limited animals and even less trophy animals. Everyone wants the same tag and there are thousands of reasons you didn't get drawn. It is just the way it goes when you are applying for premium tags. But every year we are surprised, confused and pissed off.

Easiest way to approach any draw these days is to apply and consider it a donation and assure yourself that you won't draw a tag. If you do, you'll be happy and if you don't you were already prepared not to. Then you find some other way to go hunting and you do it all over next year.

I understand the want to draw as well as anyone and love to draw tags, but it's much easier to plan on not drawing and make other plans. Sucks not to draw a tag but trophy units in Arizona are never going to be easy to draw... just not enough animals to go around.

I will get off my soapbox now I guess.
 
money said:
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!

Every year on every draw cycle this same thread happens..... "draw has started" "it think it is just starting cards should all be charged soon" "I can't believe I didn't draw I had such and such number of points" "point creep is probably crazy this year" "can't believe point creep was so bad" "it's a perfect year and people are tired of waiting so they are dumping points" ETC....

Next post will be the annual "should we change the draw system" post.

How many years does it have to happen before people figure out that it is lottery type system and it is purely luck even if they have a bunch of points. Very few draw in the max pool and when there are thousands of other guys with the same amount of points it means you are just another random person in the hat.

The thing about Arizona is we very limited animals and even less trophy animals. Everyone wants the same tag and there are thousands of reasons you didn't get drawn. It is just the way it goes when you are applying for premium tags. But every year we are surprised, confused and pissed off.

Easiest way to approach any draw these days is to apply and consider it a donation and assure yourself that you won't draw a tag. If you do, you'll be happy and if you don't you were already prepared not to. Then you find some other way to go hunting and you do it all over next year.

I understand the want to draw as well as anyone and love to draw tags, but it's much easier to plan on not drawing and make other plans. Sucks not to draw a tag but trophy units in Arizona are never going to be easy to draw... just not enough animals to go around.

I will get off my soapbox now I guess.
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Many of the points you make are not the crux of the argument that many of us here make about the AZGFD draw. For me, I just don't trust their internal systems around the draw process.
 
money said:
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!

Every year on every draw cycle this same thread happens..... "draw has started" "it think it is just starting cards should all be charged soon" "I can't believe I didn't draw I had such and such number of points" "point creep is probably crazy this year" "can't believe point creep was so bad" "it's a perfect year and people are tired of waiting so they are dumping points" ETC....

Next post will be the annual "should we change the draw system" post.

How many years does it have to happen before people figure out that it is lottery type system and it is purely luck even if they have a bunch of points. Very few draw in the max pool and when there are thousands of other guys with the same amount of points it means you are just another random person in the hat.

The thing about Arizona is we very limited animals and even less trophy animals. Everyone wants the same tag and there are thousands of reasons you didn't get drawn. It is just the way it goes when you are applying for premium tags. But every year we are surprised, confused and pissed off.

Easiest way to approach any draw these days is to apply and consider it a donation and assure yourself that you won't draw a tag. If you do, you'll be happy and if you don't you were already prepared not to. Then you find some other way to go hunting and you do it all over next year.

I understand the want to draw as well as anyone and love to draw tags, but it's much easier to plan on not drawing and make other plans. Sucks not to draw a tag but trophy units in Arizona are never going to be easy to draw... just not enough animals to go around.

I will get off my soapbox now I guess.
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The main point you are making is wrong. 20% of all tags are tags going to max points so are guaranteed for a lot of people. Thrre are many many people that applied with well over max from last year and they haven't been hit. There have been 0 sheep hits. The draw is not over. You can take that "money" to the bank.
 
longranger said:
The main point you are making is wrong. 20% of all tags are tags going to max points so are guaranteed for a lot of people. Thrre are many many people that applied with well over max from last year and they haven't been hit. There have been 0 sheep hits. The draw is not over. You can take that "money" to the bank.
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I didn't say it is over. I know it takes a while for all the card hits to show up. My point is we see the same crap every year and whining before the draw is even over is what I think is funny. I was trying to agree with you on that.

And a lot of people have max points. If only 20% go to max point holders but there are lots of people in that pool only a small portion of them will draw and everyone else is just a random name in the hat like everyone else. If a hunt only has 100-200 tags that is only 20-40 max point holders drawing in the max pool. And when we are talking about premium tags there are way more than 40 max point guys apply for those premium tags. Making it a random chance for most of those max point holders. I just love all the speculation people throw out like it must have jumped by 6 points or 200 more max guys must have thrown their names in the hat. But in reality even max point guys have a lot of competition for those top tier tags. And if it's a non-resident guy it only makes it less likely he'll draw even with a pile of points.

I did see a guy on facebook post that he applied for sheep with a buddy and they got hit for two sheep charges. So I am sure they are happening as well.
 
money said:
I didn't say it is over. I know it takes a while for all the card hits to show up. My point is we see the same crap every year and whining before the draw is even over is what I think is funny. I was trying to agree with you on that.

And a lot of people have max points. If only 20% go to max point holders but there are lots of people in that pool only a small portion of them will draw and everyone else is just a random name in the hat like everyone else. If a hunt only has 100-200 tags that is only 20-40 max point holders drawing in the max pool. And when we are talking about premium tags there are way more than 40 max point guys apply for those premium tags. Making it a random chance for most of those max point holders. I just love all the speculation people throw out like it must have jumped by 6 points or 200 more max guys must have thrown their names in the hat. But in reality even max point guys have a lot of competition for those top tier tags. And if it's a non-resident guy it only makes it less likely he'll draw even with a pile of points.

I did see a guy on facebook post that he applied for sheep with a buddy and they got hit for two sheep charges. So I am sure they are happening as well.
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No comment about about CC hits. They'll come as they come. However, anyone that applies with someone else for a sheep tag is crazy!! I would never apply with someone else for a sheep tag...even if we were both max points.
 
Bwht4x4 said:
Many of the points you make are not the crux of the argument that many of us here make about the AZGFD draw. For me, I just don't trust their internal systems around the draw process.
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You may not trust it, but that doesn't mean there is anything wrong or fishy going on. I hate the computer/application system Arizona uses and wish it was like New Mexico's system. Enter your info, select you applications and pay for everything all at once up front. Then draw results come out, you log on and know all at once what you drew. I wish that was how Arizona did things, but until then I have to live with what they have. But updating their system and making it easier to apply, pay and see results would not increase the odds for anyone.

The point of my post was probably lost in my rambling, but I was mainly trying to tell people to relax. We are a long way from know results and from everyone getting their card charges, yet people immediately freak out and start trying to figure it all out when we don't have enough information to even begin to know what happened with the draw.
 
Bwht4x4 said:
No comment about about CC hits. They'll come as they come. However, anyone that applies with someone else for a sheep tag is crazy!! I would never apply with someone else for a sheep tag...even if we were both max points.
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Yeah I thought the same thing. Should be a fun hunt for those two guys but I am with you on that strategy. Must be some lucky dudes.
 
Ole kipper snacks and ryan drew together on one app for 2 sheep tags. Unit 27/28 rocky with max pool apps.
I would relax everyone. There’s zero chance the draw is over. Between at least 15 diff people who normally draw tags for coues not one has drawn. No amount of creep could account for this.
On the elk draw i was finally hit on the 5 th day. Checked every day several times a day till the 5 th day.
Zero chance the draw is done. Good luck to all who haven’t been hit there’s plenty coming. Guaranteed. I didn’t think the draw is even half done yet.
 
The last few years, the application services were saying build points because of the drought. This year, it was get a tag if you can because of the heavy rains. Consider a lesser unit just to get a tag this year. That advice had to hurt odds.
 
ElmerFudd said:
The last few years, the application services were saying build points because of the drought. This year, it was get a tag if you can because of the heavy rains. Consider a lesser unit just to get a tag this year. That advice had to hurt odds.
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Who was saying this?
 
The AZGFD only did the bonus pass. I’m sure there’s an audit going on to make sure they didn’t foul anything up like they did with NR lifetime license holders and the elk draw. How long this will take? My guess is we see more CC charges sometime this AM.
 
msolocam said:
The AZGFD only did the bonus pass. I’m sure there’s an audit going on to make sure they didn’t foul anything up like they did with NR lifetime license holders and the elk draw. How long this will take? My guess is we see more CC charges sometime this AM.
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Negative
 
Nonresidents who bought the lifetime license while a resident are not subjected to the 10% cap. Do the tags they draw count towards the cap?
 
I saw this on another forum.

A buddy of mine called G&F today. The draw is not over and will run from yesterday to friday. Hits will stop by Friday close of business and results posted by early next week.
 
sremim said:
The draw is over. The only other hits coming through are from those rejected cards. False hope.
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In the past this was the pattern. But something changed with the elk draw.

There are way too many applicants with very high odds who have not been charged. I’m not sure what’s going on in Carefree but this is different.

There will be more.
 
Flatlander said:
In the past this was the pattern. But something changed with the elk draw.

There are way too many applicants with very high odds who have not been charged. I’m not sure what’s going on in Carefree but this is different.

There will be more.
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Think you are right. Not hearing of many successful draws yet. And no sheep tags. Definitely things are not finished yet.
 
sremim said:
The draw is over. The only other hits coming through are from those rejected cards. False hope.
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You have some inside info? Some guys are seeing charges disapear from there cards. Sounds like the elk draw all over again where they run the draw twice.
 
junior said:
You have some inside info? Some guys are seeing charges disapear from there cards. Sounds like the elk draw all over again where they run the draw twice.
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No inside info. Charges showing up and dropping is just standard banking. I've seen it with countless charges having nothing to do with G&F. The charge will reappear as officially posted when it clears the bank.
 
The cc hits started and stopped quickly. I’m assuming they caught a glitch happening and shut it down trying to resolve it. I’m still thinking we are gonna see a big wave of hits either today or tomorrow.
 
ruthunter said:
The cc hits started and stopped quickly. I’m assuming they caught a glitch happening and shut it down trying to resolve it. I’m still thinking we are gonna see a big wave of hits either today or tomorrow.
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That's what I'm thinking too!
 
This start & halt is clearly another AZ GFD messed up draw.

2021 elk & pronghorn 2 week delay (2nd CC update deadline)
2023 elk & pronghorn mistake of not including NR lifetime license holders in res allocation.
2023 deer & sheep - the mysterious start & stop.
 
Crampy said:
2023 deer & sheep - the mysterious start & stop
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Not trying to be argumentative but what start and stop are you referring to? I believe everyone that has a hit, it occurred just before 9:00 am yesterday. I have not heard of another wave of hits. I would be extremely happy being wrong, but you can put a fork in this draw.
 
msolocam said:
The AZGFD only did the bonus pass. I’m sure there’s an audit going on to make sure they didn’t foul anything up like they did with NR lifetime license holders and the elk draw. How long this will take? My guess is we see more CC charges sometime this AM.
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This again.
 
So much speculation with so little factual knowledge about anything.... For all we know the draw could be complete and could have gone flawlessly. Or it could be ongoing and having issues.... who knows. But I get a kick out of all the theories and "knowledge". Imagine how much time people could save if they just didn't worry about it and just check once results are posted.

I used to hate paying up front for applications but I wish we did so that people could just wait for results and not get so worked up about things that are purely speculation. Then again, I am getting a lot of laughs out of this thread so maybe I should just shut my mouth and enjoy the panic and frustration.
 
Id trust these guys know what they're talking about since they're livelihoods depend on these tags. It ain't over!
13330.thumb.jpeg.3a914490f4ba5e42cb821e85a0d361a8.jpeg
 
First off there was not a 6 point point jump for 12AW early. My friend with 15 NR points has a $300 pending cc charge from Arizona DFG. Unless he drew the 12AW late hunt on random, or 12AW early on random. Both of which would be VERY SLIM to no chance.
 
LIK2HNT said:
First off there was not a 6 point point jump for 12AW early. My friend with 15 NR points has a $300 pending cc charge from Arizona DFG. Unless he drew the 12AW late hunt on random, or 12AW early on random. Both of which would be VERY SLIM to no chance.
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I put in for both of those with 18 points and still no charge.
 
LIK2HNT said:
First off there was not a 6 point point jump for 12AW early. My friend with 15 NR points has a $300 pending cc charge from Arizona DFG. Unless he drew the 12AW late hunt on random, or 12AW early on random. Both of which would be VERY SLIM to no chance.
Click to expand...
I applied for the same hunts with 19. Still no charges.
 
LIK2HNT said:
First off there was not a 6 point point jump for 12AW early. My friend with 15 NR points has a $300 pending cc charge from Arizona DFG. Unless he drew the 12AW late hunt on random, or 12AW early on random. Both of which would be VERY SLIM to no chance.
Click to expand...
He very well could have got random we were in at 17/18 for the same hunts and nada
 

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