2010 Utah Draw Odds Link

LAST EDITED ON May-11-10 AT 12:26PM (MST)[p]Wow. Depressing pretty much sums up that report. I think I'll draw 2 sheep tags in MT before I ever draw anything in UT!

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln
 
Once I draw elk, I'll be out of Utah. Can't see spending the cash for such poor odds on the OIL tags.
 
I am a resident and will say that what the UDWR did to the NR's
is an absolute rip-off. Basically, they stole your (NR) $$$.

Think about someone who was a few point from the max pool. Now he has to compete with 10 thousand other applicants.

What an embarassment to our state.....

I support NR's and wish they were treated better. Too bad the thick headed DWR can't understand what a benefit they are to our economy.

I noticed that the LE elk unit that we drew had ten tags last year, and 16 this year; interesting..
 
Disappointed again to see that Utah only allocated about 7% of its permits to non-residents.

I have always supported hunters everywhere. But it is tough to support Utah. I am for shutting down all hunting on Federal land in Utah. Since most non-Utah hunters will never be allowed to hunt on Federal land in Utah, for all practical purposes, why should Utah hunters have access to hunt this land which belongs to all citizens of this country. Let the Utah residents, many of whom seem to believe that they are getting too low of an allocation at 93%, hunt on Utah's abundant state land.

I have been a member of HF since its inception, but I am worn out with reading about Garth and Jason and their group hunting all over the Western states, but not taking a strong position on increasing non-resident access to hunting opportunities on Federal public land in Utah.

Bring in the wolves to hunt Utah's Federal land.
 
Horned:

"Let the Utah residents, many of whom seem to believe that they are getting too low of an allocation at 93%, hunt on Utah's abundant state land"

Did you not read my previous post? why don't you consider the fact that "many" residents DO support non-residents? Wolves??
nice solution lol....

Why not take action and blame the DWR who ultimately made the decision, not the residents..
 
woodruffhunter - I didn't see your message before I hit the "Post Message" button. You're right. Its a complicated political issue, and Utah's hunters are not to blame. Sorry for the public display of frustration. And I do know a few non-resident hunters who have drawn Utah permits, so it does happen, even if too infrequently.
 
I am a Utah resident, but I believe that Utah needs to make changes for residents AND non-residents. 1:1372 is crazy for a Henry's Tag for NR; but it is 1:227 for a resident. For all intents and purposes it is still a OIL tag...MAYBE...IF YOU ARE LUCKY.

Now, I understand that nobody has a "right" to hunt the Henry's, but my kids will probably never hunt a premium deer or elk unit in Utah. They are too far behind the curve.

As long as Utah wants to allow 95% success rates on rutting 370+ elk with a rifle...too few hunters will get through the system each year. We can't kill more elk and keep the same quality, but we can allow more hunters in the field as long as we keep the same harvest numbers.

The only way to do that is allocate a higher percentage of tags to "primitive" weapons, or take rifle out of the rut. How many Western states have rifle hunts during the rut in every LE unit? NONE. Is this really where our priorities are?

Maybe we need to limit "primitive" weapons lethality. Maybe our guns/bows are just too lethal, at too great a distance. Maybe we need to make people choose between General hunts and LE hunts (i.e... you can't build a deer point and hunt general deer in the same year).

I don't know if these are answers, but my concern is long-term. What incentive is there for a younster to even start the points game in Utah? A San Juan rifle tag will take, statistically, over 60 years to draw. It is hard to tell a 15 year old, "If you start now and don't miss a year, you can hunt elk when you are 80 years old."

Something needs to be done or there won't be enough hunters to fight the good fight.

Any other ideas?

Grizzly
 
We need to micro manage the entire state! No more general draw choice/LE choice. Allocate tags per unit. If you draw your first choice you spend your points. This will be the only way to keep hunters moving through the bonus point system and stop the current point creep situation we are suffering from. This will also brighten the future for our younger hunters. It currently takes 8-9 points to hunt 150 class bucks on the Book Cliffs.

My 14 year old got her first bonus point this year. How long until she has max points for the Book Cliffs? REDICULOUS!!!
3 years ago I took 4 kids through hunter safety. They all like to come over and talk huntin time to time. Their thoughts are positive and expectations are high. At some point they will realize their dismal future with the current management plans unless we make changes to the point system.

As far as I can tell the only people against this are the people who have max points or close to. People by nature are afraid of change. The hunters with max points do not need to fear this change because they will still be the first to draw the sought after tags. The point creep will slow because of people that wish to hunt southern areas every couple of years as a first choice will burn points.

Should a plan like this go into affect I would like to see the waiting period removed. But hey you could still draw a central unit tag as a second choice and recieve a point for not drawing the Pauns with your first choice.

Just some food for thought here guys what do you think???
 
LAST EDITED ON May-14-10 AT 05:29AM (MST)[p]Looks like quite a few are realizing what these points systems in the West are going to leave the next generation.

This was discussed regarding the Wyoming sheep draw:
http://www.monstermuleys.info/dcforum/DCForumID8/4107.html

Like I said before, I don't see how we can put the genie back into the bottle. There's WAY too much money involved for the state budgets, and people are too emotionally (and financially) tied to their "point collections".
 
I read discussions like this every year just after the drawing results are posted. And every year I wonder why the point systems are blamed for people being unlucky in the drawing. Except for those on the top, eliminating the point system is going to make very little difference in anyone?s odds of drawing. And we will still never be guaranteed a permit in the most popular units.

Since San Juan is always used as the example, I will use that one as well. If the point system was totally eliminated and everyone had 1 chance of drawing, the odds would have been like this:

2005 - 1.4%
2006 - 1.3%
2007 - 1.4%
2008 - 1.8%
2009 - 2.0%
2010 - 1.7%

Over the past 6 years, drawing odds would have fluctuated by a total of 0.7%. With odds like that, you could never expect to draw a San Juan tag in your lifetime. The same problem exists with the point system we use today - though our odds do get slightly better each year. We need to face the fact that the most popular units are always going to have horrible odds and we may never draw a tag there - regardless of the system used to allocate permits. I am old enough to remember Utah before the point system was implemented. I never drew a tag in that system and these very same arguments existed back then too.

The point system did work for me a few years back and now I am on the bottom of the point pool for the species I am applying for. I know that I will likely be applying for the rest of my life trying to get that permit, but if I do?????

Now with all that being said, I do believe that there are things that could be done to improve the odds for everyone. But that is a whole different discussion.

Good luck to everyone that drew permits this year. You have likely waited a very long time for this opportunity.

Jon
www.HuntersTrailhead.com
 
slcmuley, these odds are simple tags (divided by) applicants and do not provide true numbers (not even close). It isn't until JDC runs the numbers that we will know the true odds. THANKS AGAIN JDC.

I agree with JDC that odds will always be terrible unless we increase tags issued, which was where I was going with my last post.

There is no silver bullet. I believe Colorado's system is the most fair and provides the most opportunity combined with quality. You can hunt every year and still build points for good units. The micromanaging is an important part of their system. They have a huge array of choices in quality and points required. You can hunt decent units in Colorado with 2-3 points. In Utah you need 7-9 points to hunt the lowest-quality of deer units. Colorado's point creep is also very much depressed compared to Utah.

Grizzly
 
BOBULULU mentioned that the draw odds on the Henry's for a non-res was 1 in 1372. It's WAY worse than that! Going by last years applicants, when you factor in everyone's points with the 1 available tag your draw odds were 1 in 9,178 last year and they are probably a lot worse this year. Now, I've always been one to complain about the point systems but this year I drew that 1 Henry's tag with 1 point so I can't really complain too much. But, I don't think that getting rid of the point system will solve any draw odds problem. In my opinion the only thing that will help the problem is lower success rates so that more tags can be allocated thus moving everyone through the system much faster. This can only be accomplished by getting the rifle hunt out of the rut. Move it to mid October like every other western state. The success rates would still be in the mid 60 to 70%, you'd still have one hell of a hunt and be allowed to throw another 20% more tags in every unit. Still keep 50% of the tags going to the max point holders but they would be getting their tags quicker slowing the point creep WAY down. There doesn't seem to be any other way to do it and I would still stay in the draw system because I would feel that my odds just went way up with more tags.
 
The intent of my post was to complain about not drawing tags for myself. Although I was complaining for the sake of the new recruits.
I was fishing for thoughts and opinions on managing all 35-40 sub units the same. I do not want to see points go away completely. I feel if a guy is willing to hold out for the henry's thats great but he probably wont be hunting the other southern units unless he uses his points.
To Summarize:
A FIRST CHOICE DRAWN SHOULD TAKE YOUR POINTS. ALL SUB-UNITS SHOULD HAVE A CAP ON THEIR TAGS. IF YOU DONT DRAW YOU FIRST CHOICE YOU ARE AWARDED A POINT. NO MORE SPLIT BETWEEN GENERAL DEER AND LIMITED ENTRY DEER!
 
It would be so simple to get rid of the two point systems--Preference points on General tags and Bonus points on LE tags

Simply combine the points folks have into the Bonus Point system.

Application Codes count on ALL 5 choices before ya move onto the next Buck Deer Applicant.

Keep the 2 year waiting period if ya draw------except the Leftover tags...if one ends up going that route....$ell all the tags fella's.

Put the Wasatch Front into 2 draw units......I-80 North and I-80 South----ALL weapons of choice......

Ressy and Non-Ressy in the same gig....

Robb
 
I can't seem to find where the DWR lists the Tag Name with the number listed on the Draw Odds repoot...? Where do I find that...? Just in my proclamation?


"Therefore, wo be unto him that is at ease in Zion!" 2 Ne. 28: 24
 

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