RamDreamer
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The 2009 draw information and brochure is now available. I've posted details and links at http://forums.wildsheep.org/eve/for...76061615&m=8261063713&r=8261063713#8261063713
2009 Colorado Sheep & Goat
- Thread starter RamDreamer
- Start date
Broomer
Active Member
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- 241
Can someone breakdown (If they have information) the stats on drawing a tag in Colorado? I understand everybody has to acquire a minimum of 3 points to be eligible to apply for an actual tag. But what I don't know is how many "bonus PP's" are out there above the minimum 3? Can a NR realistically draw a sheep or Goat tag if they just acquired the 3rd point minimum in 2008?
You are right that you won't have a chance to draw a sheep or goat tag until you have accumulated 3 pref pts. The maximum weighted pts after the 2008 draw is 8. Once you have 3 pref pts you will have a chance to draw a tag the following application period. Every year you don't draw a tag you receive an additional name in the hat...more or less.
With that said the odds are pretty bleak that a nonresident will draw after acquiring 3 pts but you can't draw if you don't apply! The more years you apply the better chance you have...but the additional wted pts don't help an overwhelming amount because there are so many nonres vying for only a few nonres tags.
If you are just starting out applying your odds of drawing a sheep tag in Colo are a lot better than a pref pt system like Wyo where only the guys with the highest pref pts have a chance of drawing tags. At least everyone has a chance to draw a ram tag in Colo after they have 3 pts!
Hopefully this makes sense?
With that said the odds are pretty bleak that a nonresident will draw after acquiring 3 pts but you can't draw if you don't apply! The more years you apply the better chance you have...but the additional wted pts don't help an overwhelming amount because there are so many nonres vying for only a few nonres tags.
If you are just starting out applying your odds of drawing a sheep tag in Colo are a lot better than a pref pt system like Wyo where only the guys with the highest pref pts have a chance of drawing tags. At least everyone has a chance to draw a ram tag in Colo after they have 3 pts!
Hopefully this makes sense?
ramtagless
Active Member
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- 835
I am a resident with 3 and 6 weighted. The last couple of years I have attended the orientation with friends that drew. I have heard rumors from several good sources that the actual draw system is a little more complicated.
I also got a free copy of GSCO (I am not a member) and it explained the system used. Wish I had that copy but don't. Anyway?it was very convoluted. Everyone gets a string of numbers, the number order is reversed, then divided by the number of weighted points you have and the lowest numbers get the tags. Going off memory here - anyone know exactly how it works?
Broomer - Get your 3 PP points and keep applying if you can. Every year folks draw with no weighted and I know guys with max weighted and they can't draw. You just never know. Good luck.
I also got a free copy of GSCO (I am not a member) and it explained the system used. Wish I had that copy but don't. Anyway?it was very convoluted. Everyone gets a string of numbers, the number order is reversed, then divided by the number of weighted points you have and the lowest numbers get the tags. Going off memory here - anyone know exactly how it works?
Broomer - Get your 3 PP points and keep applying if you can. Every year folks draw with no weighted and I know guys with max weighted and they can't draw. You just never know. Good luck.
ramtagless
Active Member
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- 835
I agree. But - you get a long random number and then the order is reversed. If that reversed number is very high, dividing it by your weighted point will still result in a high number. So -if you get a high reversed number your weighted points may be of no benefit.
Weighted points (bonus points) would be more beneficial if they just did the 'extra chance in the hat' system. With the current system your random generated number is the most important determining factor in drawing. I would prefer a true bonus point system.
If I get drawn for sheep or goat this year?I will change my mine.
Weighted points (bonus points) would be more beneficial if they just did the 'extra chance in the hat' system. With the current system your random generated number is the most important determining factor in drawing. I would prefer a true bonus point system.
If I get drawn for sheep or goat this year?I will change my mine.
HornedToad
Active Member
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- 430
In '96, I drew a bighorn tag for unit S6 (Pike's Peak) in my 4th year of applying, which was the first year I was eligible to draw. I got lucky and took a very nice 16"x35" - 176 pt. ram. As I remember it, I was one of 82 non-res applicants for that one permit. The odds are tougher now, but as they say, you can't draw if you don't apply.
BTW, it appears from the 2009 CO application booklet that the number of bighorn tags on Pike's Peak have been reduced significantly, and that there are no non-res tags this year. Did the Pike's Peak herd suffer a die-off?
I hope that unit S6 comes back soon. It was one of the few units in Colorado open to non-residents that provided a legitimate chance at a 16"+ base ram.
BTW, it appears from the 2009 CO application booklet that the number of bighorn tags on Pike's Peak have been reduced significantly, and that there are no non-res tags this year. Did the Pike's Peak herd suffer a die-off?
I hope that unit S6 comes back soon. It was one of the few units in Colorado open to non-residents that provided a legitimate chance at a 16"+ base ram.
Broomer
Active Member
- Messages
- 241
Thanks- I have my three points and will apply for this 2009 season with 0 weighted Pts. So if I read right the max weighted points are 6 going into 2009? For those res and non-res that know sheep units, what is the best Archery hunt for me a non-res? I am going to go for the best odds in weapon choice and if I draw one day I hope to make good it's a gamble with Archery equipment but I love the challenge.
bighorn191
Active Member
- Messages
- 194
>In '96, I drew a bighorn
>tag for unit S6 (Pike's
>Peak) in my 4th year
>of applying, which was the
>first year I was eligible
>to draw. I got lucky
>and took a very nice
>16"x35" - 176 pt. ram.
>As I remember it, I
>was one of 82 non-res
>applicants for that one permit.
>The odds are tougher now,
>but as they say, you
>can't draw if you don't
>apply.
>
>BTW, it appears from the 2009
>CO application booklet that the
>number of bighorn tags on
>Pike's Peak have been reduced
>significantly, and that there are
>no non-res tags this year.
>Did the Pike's Peak herd
>suffer a die-off?
>
>I hope that unit S6 comes
>back soon. It was one
>of the few units in
>Colorado open to non-residents that
>provided a legitimate chance at
>a 16"+ base ram.
The Pikes Peak herd numbers have been more accurately counted the last couple of years through a lot of volunteer sheep counts, helicopter surveys, and mark and re-capture efforts. There was no die-off. The herd count is believed to be very accurate and the tag numbers reflect those numbers.
There are also big-based sheep in S12. There was a 183+" ram taken there two years ago by a rifle hunter.
S32 is not known for big bases but occasionally will turn out a good one in the upper 15" range.
>tag for unit S6 (Pike's
>Peak) in my 4th year
>of applying, which was the
>first year I was eligible
>to draw. I got lucky
>and took a very nice
>16"x35" - 176 pt. ram.
>As I remember it, I
>was one of 82 non-res
>applicants for that one permit.
>The odds are tougher now,
>but as they say, you
>can't draw if you don't
>apply.
>
>BTW, it appears from the 2009
>CO application booklet that the
>number of bighorn tags on
>Pike's Peak have been reduced
>significantly, and that there are
>no non-res tags this year.
>Did the Pike's Peak herd
>suffer a die-off?
>
>I hope that unit S6 comes
>back soon. It was one
>of the few units in
>Colorado open to non-residents that
>provided a legitimate chance at
>a 16"+ base ram.
The Pikes Peak herd numbers have been more accurately counted the last couple of years through a lot of volunteer sheep counts, helicopter surveys, and mark and re-capture efforts. There was no die-off. The herd count is believed to be very accurate and the tag numbers reflect those numbers.
There are also big-based sheep in S12. There was a 183+" ram taken there two years ago by a rifle hunter.
S32 is not known for big bases but occasionally will turn out a good one in the upper 15" range.
They divide by points +1 (as division by zero is undefined, and division by 1 gives the same #). Next year is 10 for max points. Can't see anything magic about ten, only the more you have, the better your chances at a low # than those with a lot less.
Horniac
Very Active Member
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- 1,412
The odds are going to down every year because there is not enough turnover of tags, especially for the non-residents, which were issued between 29 and 38 tags a year between 1999 and 2008 depending on the sheep populations and harvest objectives.
Each year, more applicants (200 to 300) are added to the drawing pool as they acquire the 3 needed points to participate in the draw. Same with mountain goat and moose. The following numbers are from the CDOW statistics page for rocky mountain bighorn sheep with my added calculation for simple odds without respect to weighted preference points:
Year NR Applications NR Tags Simple Odds
1999 1783 34 1.91%
2000 2070 36 1.74%
2001 1884 38 2.02%
2002 2081 38 1.83%
2003 2124 31 1.46%
2004 2254 31 1.38%
2005 2560 26 1.02%
2006 2914 28 0.96%
2007 2974 26 0.87%
2008 3235 29 0.90%
Assuming I am recapping the draws correctly, the best odds a non-resident had was in 2000 (1:50) and the worst was in 2007 (1:114). While non-resident applications increased by 261 applicants in 2008, the drawing odds slightly improved due to the the increase of 3 NR tags that year.
The odds essentially have been cut in half in 10 years as a result of the increased applicants coupled with the reduction in tags. However, as they always say, you can't draw a tag if you don't apply!
Good luck everyone!
Horniac
Each year, more applicants (200 to 300) are added to the drawing pool as they acquire the 3 needed points to participate in the draw. Same with mountain goat and moose. The following numbers are from the CDOW statistics page for rocky mountain bighorn sheep with my added calculation for simple odds without respect to weighted preference points:
Year NR Applications NR Tags Simple Odds
1999 1783 34 1.91%
2000 2070 36 1.74%
2001 1884 38 2.02%
2002 2081 38 1.83%
2003 2124 31 1.46%
2004 2254 31 1.38%
2005 2560 26 1.02%
2006 2914 28 0.96%
2007 2974 26 0.87%
2008 3235 29 0.90%
Assuming I am recapping the draws correctly, the best odds a non-resident had was in 2000 (1:50) and the worst was in 2007 (1:114). While non-resident applications increased by 261 applicants in 2008, the drawing odds slightly improved due to the the increase of 3 NR tags that year.
The odds essentially have been cut in half in 10 years as a result of the increased applicants coupled with the reduction in tags. However, as they always say, you can't draw a tag if you don't apply!
Good luck everyone!
Horniac
I honestly think point systems hurt your odds for that very reason, unless you are first in in a "pyramid scam" true preference type system. Pretty much most get one more every year, along with more in and coming in that might otherwise pass. More people apply just to keep in the points race, and stay in every year. Even in a bad economic year like this one, most are going to do whatever it takes to stay in.
