2008 Wyoming Nonresident info...

[RamDreamer]

...is now available on-line. I posted the details at http://forums.wildsheep.org/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/4126055494/m/4621053852

NOTE: Bighorn tag price increased in excess of 18% for '08 versus what it was in '07.

 

[CAelknuts]

LAST EDITED ON Nov-22-07 AT 08:54AM (MST)[p]Any word on when they'll release the information about preference point statistics? Disappointed to see the price increase, but it might be one more factor that causes a few guys to drop out. Of course, there are also plenty of hunters who'd be very happy to have to pay that fee, myself included! Son and I each have 9 points, so we're in it until we each draw, or I get too old to sheep hunt. Son's only 20, but I'm soon to be 49 and hope I can draw before I'm too old to hunt bighorns.

 

[RamDreamer]

The preference point totals, going into the 2008 draw are now available at: http://gf.state.wy.us/downloads/pdf/TotalPreferencePointsMS2007.pdf

 

[CAelknuts]

Thanks Ramdreamer. Now, we just need to go back and find the point totals going into 2007 to learn how many dropped out. I know that data was on here awhile back, so I'm going to search for it and post it if I find it.

 

[CAelknuts]

I couldn't find the point totals going into 2007 on the archives, but did find a comment by HornedToad that 10,247 NR rolled over into the 2007 draw. With 8,662 total NR heading into 2008, it looks like 1,585 dropped out or drew tags this year. Now, it'd be interesting to see how many dropped out by point total, in other words, for each group of point holders, how many dropped this year compared to last year.

 

[RamDreamer]

LAST EDITED ON Nov-22-07 AT 11:55PM (MST)[p]CAelknuts,

I try to remember to download the file each year when it's posted. I looked at the trending earlier today '05 to '06, '06 to '07 & '07 to '08 but only for the values from where my wife is at (8) to max (I'm 1 off of max).

The moose point holder situation is far more encouraging for me than the sheep as FAR more top point holders cleared out of the sheep pool in '07 than did in the moose pool.

I did not note a significant drop out / draw out difference (on a percentage basis) in sheep for this year (going into '08) vs. last year (going into '07), at the higher points values. There was mass exodus at the lower point levels...

For sheep the nonresident numbers were:
13 points = -46 people from the previous year (when 12 was max)
12 points = -28 (was the 11 point pool in '07)
11 points = -16 (was the 10 point pool in '07)
10 points = -40 (was the 9 point pool in '07)
9 points = -20 (you know the drill...)
8 points = -110
7 points = -414
6 points = -328
5 points = -501
4 points = -555
3 points = -723
2 points = -1407

 

[RamDreamer]

You're looking at the Moose #'s (8,662). The nonresident sheep pointholders stands at 7,345 going into the '08 draw. That number was 10,248 going into the '07 draw.

 

[CAelknuts]

My bad. I noticed my mistake and came back on here to correct it and....you'd beat me to it, thanks for the data!

It is interesting to see how many dropped from the previous year. Now, the task will be to project that forward and try to extrapolate likely figures for say, ten years from now, which probably wont' be accurate but will be fun to ponder.

Where is DonV when we need him?

By the way, when are we going to get to see pictures of your Desert Ram? Or, is it already on here and I'm clueless about which thread? Congratulations on that!

 

[ElmerFudd]

I'm one of the top too. Looks like even the tougher units to draw should clear the top pool in the next few years. Once that happens, it should not be too long for the one off the top guys to draw, if they do not change the system. Most of the drop rate in that pool is hunters drawing tags. Now the tough call, try to draw an easier draw, or hode out for the one I really want? I think with the price increase, might just go for the one I really want or nothing. I certainly want one I can do outside a wilderness area. If they do not change the system, it should be a sure deal in the next ten years for me, on the one I want. If they do change it, oh well. Anyone could luck out on a random draw tag too.....

 

[kilbuc]

RamDreamer.....you are never going to draw WY, the word is out, you have drawn way too many sheep tags the last seveal years so your apps will mysteriously disapear.......LOL. And good luck.

from the "Heartland of Wyoming"

 

[RamDreamer]

CAelknuts,
RE: "By the way, when are we going to get to see pictures of your Desert Ram? Or, is it already on here and I'm clueless about which thread? Congratulations on that!"

Thanks! I don't know how to post pictures here. I posted a couple over at http://forums.bowsite.com/tf/bgforums/thread.cfm?forum=12&threadid=343108&MESSAGES=19&FF=12


kilbuc,
Come on buddy, don't jinx me!!! Congratulations on that beautiful Nevada Desert Bighorn you just took! And HUGE congratulations on completing your Grand Slam!!

 

[CAelknuts]

Great ram, congratulations! I was on there just before you posted, in fact, I'm the fellow immediately above your pictures, requesting same. elknuts2 on bowsite, CAelknuts here. Glad to see that you didn't let the "bow only PC nazis" discourage you. I love to bowhunt and enjoy that site, but have a difficult time with some of the elitist attitudes some bowsiters have.

 

[HornedToad]

LAST EDITED ON Nov-24-07 AT 08:36PM (MST)[p]RamDreamer - thanks for posting the link.

Here's some more analysis: In 2007, there were 44 nonres sheep permits in the WY Preference Point (PP) draw. These were distributed as:

12 points - 32 permits
11 points - 9 permits
10 points - 3 permits
<10 points - 0 permits

There were 11 permits in the Random draw. I don't know if it is reported anywhere how these were distributed among the PP holders, but statistically it is unlikely that more than 1 was drawn by a high PP holder.

There were 139 Max Pt (12 PP) holders going into the 2007 draw, and now 93 (13 PP) going into the 2008 draw, for a difference of 46. Of these 46, 32 drew permits in 2007, meaning that 14 Max Pt holders DROPPED OUT of the draw in 2006, the first year for the increased $100 PP fee (a person has to fail to apply for TWO years before being dropped from the PP roll).

Using this same analysis, the number of applicants dropping out of each PP class following the 2007 draw, as a result of failing to apply in 2006 and 2007:

Max PP (13 PP into 2008/11 into 2006) : 14 dropped
Max less 1 : 19
Max less 2 : 13
Max less 3 : 12
Max less 4 : 20
Max less 5 : 110
Max less 6 : 414
Max less 7 : 328
Max less 8 : 501
Max less 9 : 555
Max less 10 : 723
Max less 11 : 1407

The 14 Max PP to drop out in 2006 would have been about 8% of those eligible for the draw that year.

The number of drop-outs reported for subsequent draws should decrease, given that all PP holders eligible for the 2008 draw will have invested at least one $100 PP fee in previous draws.

It is interesting that 1257 new nonres applicants in 2007 rationalized paying the $100 fee for their first PP, now coming behind 6088 applicants with more points.

Hope springs eternal!

HT

 

[RamDreamer]

LAST EDITED ON Nov-24-07 AT 09:28PM (MST)[p]HornedToad,

RE: "It is interesting that 1257 new nonres applicants in 2007 rationalized paying the $100 fee for their first PP, now coming behind 6088 applicants with more points."


Remember that any actual applicant for a bighorn tag has the $100 preference point fee removed from their refund, and they are part of the preference point program whether they want to be or not. It is no longer optional, but rather is mandatory - so Wyoming gets $100 from the applicant whether they wish to participate in the points chase or not.

My assumption is that these 1,257 new 1 PP holders are new players in the game, hoping to draw one of the random tags, and simply absorbing the $100 PP hit as a cost of playing.

 

[ColoradoOak]

Yep, I made the same mistake HornedToad did, but then remembered that you can't choose whether to participate if you're applying for a tag.

I can't believe 14 max points holders dropped out because of $200 worth of points fees....

 

[ElmerFudd]

It is hard to tell reasons why max points guys would drop, besides drawing tags. Some might lose their health, or die. Some may just screw up an application, or just forget. Price increase may affect those with major income changes, but my guess is that it is not a big factor for top pool applicants. My guess is tat drop rates in the top pool (or near top ones) will stay close to what it has been.

 

[DougW]

don't forget that some may have dropped out simply for philosophical reasons, e.g. this is becoming a rich man's game and that doesn't bode well for the future of hunting.

 

[DonVathome]

HT is a great source of info I simply copy what he wrote into my WY sheep file! I am sticking it out, I have 8 pnts, and based on 45 NR max pnt tags a year and 3% dropping out (hopefully that is more) I will hit max points in 2023, along with 400 or so other guys (guess). Long wait I will be 52 then.

My big concern is WY cutting NR sheep tags to 10%, that would HURT.

 

[HornedToad]

I am surprised that there were not more drop-outs. Wyoming G&F increased its non-res PP fee from $7 to $100, and fewer than half of the participants dropped out. This has been a huge money maker for WG&F.

I went back and looked out my predictions made on the post from Oct. 23 of the non-res PP applicants remaining after the 2007 draw:

PP Prediction Actual

13 102 93
12 264 267
11 194 198
10 169 176
09 190 196
08 702 706

I underestimatee the number of MaxPt holders (13PP) to drop out, but overestimated the number of dropouts in the other PP classes (the fewer the number of dropouts, the greater the number remaining).

I believe there must be a lot of applicants who chose to stick around for a year or two to see the level of attrition, who may now decide to abandon the Wymoning Sheep draw.

For example, there were 1251 applicants with 4 PP going into the 2007 draw. Of these, 501 dropped out, but 750 remained, paying a $100 for the privilege. These 750 applicants, now with 5 points, have 3180 applicants ahead of them in the PP chase. At the current level of non-res sheep permits, it may take 70 to 80 years to burn through these applicants so that those now holding 5 PP will make it to the MaxPt pool. That's a lot of $100 PP payments!

I expect that the attrition rate will continue at a relatively high rate as many applicants eventually conclude that they will never live long enough to be drawn in Wyoming. But... perhaps not. Many may stick around regardless even though annual odds in the Random Draw will likely never improve above 1%.

Good luck!

HT

 

[ColoradoOak]

>For example, there were 1251 applicants
>with 4 PP going into
>the 2007 draw. Of these,
>501 dropped out, but 750
>remained, paying a $100 for
>the privilege. These 750 applicants,
>now with 5 points, have
>3180 applicants ahead of them
>in the PP chase. At
>the current level of non-res
>sheep permits, it may take
>70 to 80 years to
>burn through these applicants so
>that those now holding 5
>PP will make it to
>the MaxPt pool. That's a
>lot of $100 PP payments!
>
>
>I expect that the attrition rate
>will continue at a relatively
>high rate as many applicants
>eventually conclude that they will
>never live long enough to
>be drawn in Wyoming.

I am in that category HornedToad. I now have 5 points. I know it's a long shot, but I decided that I'm willing to stick it out for a few years and see what happens. I agree with you (and hope) that the attrition rate will stay high for a few years. I think the increase in tag price might also contribute to that attrition. If, sometime down the line, non-res tag numbers are drastically decreased, I might be regretting that decision.

Oak

 

[Cozmo8]

Don V, remember that when you get to max points in 2023 that it may take another 10 years to draw if there are 400+ applicants still in your pool. This year the sheep permit is up to approx. $2200. Amazing! The Wy G and F will make close to a million dollars on sheep points alone this year from non-residents and another 2-3 million on deer, elk, antelope points. When will the madness end?

 

[ElmerFudd]

Everyone staying in obviously thinks it is worth it. So I guess you have to say they are charging a fair price if you did not drop out. What sucks worst about point systems is that they can change the rules at any time. You can figure odds, prices, expected years to draw and such, but one rule change one year, and poof, all your money and invested years are gone....... You do not know what you are buying.

 

[Triple_BB]

>don't forget that some may have
>dropped out simply for philosophical
>reasons, e.g. this is becoming
>a rich man's game and
>that doesn't bode well for
>the future of hunting.

When was it not a rich man's game. The majority of the non residents hunting sheep here have to hire a guide due to the wilderness/guide law. I'd bet the ones who hunt with a Wyoming resident are into it for a pile with the cost of horses, the license, costs associated with the hunt, etc. As I see it, the $100 app fee is chump change. I spent $50 in gas last Sat just to shoot three ducks. I'll end up doing the same next weekend. Personally I'd like to see them jack up the fee's for residents. Might improve my odd's of drawing a decent elk tag. Ain't nothing cheap about hunting anymore, especially big game.

 

[MNHunter]

I bet a lot of folks are like me and just figure the $100 is part of the game in WY to apply for sheep. If they made it optional again (which they could at any time) you see a dfifference in the PP #s

"Whatever you are, be a good one."
- Abraham Lincoln

 

[DonVathome]

Cosmo I do realize I will be in with a lot of other guys, but by then many will drop out, and at least then my points matter! I would be going for 4 times as many tags as before.

I predicted 1/2 the sheep apps would drop out, I think it will still take some time, many might stick around for now but I think the drop out rate will increase in the future. I also strongly feel WY will cut NR tags, some how some time.

Also, on bowsite there are rumors about WY talking about cutting ALL NR sheep tags. Can you imagine? This is unreal. Even talk about this seems unfair after charging us $100 for points. Again this is a rumor - but it has me salty! We need to figure out what to do to be sure this fire is put out now.

I would be willing to bet that no matter what inside of 10 years NR tags will see drastic cuts in WY, to half what they are now. Why not? Cut tags in half and double point fee cost - same $$$ more tags for resident. Wait 5 years. Do it again.

 

[DougW]

10 years ago it wasn't.

Using your logic, let's just go with a $10000 sheep tag fee now (instead of 10 years from now, when it probably will happen), then see who applies for it. You'd have better odds, right?

Then see how long sheep hunting exists when 5% or less of the public hunters support it. Think about it: when hunting is challenged in the ballot box, would you rather have a few rich guys on your side, or a lot of dedicated hunters?

 

[DougW]

(PS that reply was meant for Triple_BB in an earlier post)

 

[Cozmo8]

BBB,

An average bighorn in Mt is better than the best in Wyoming, Montana charges $750 . They charge $20 for a preference point. With your attitude to jack it up for residents that doesn't seem right either. A family with several hunters esp young kids cannot afford it. Wy is now more expensive than any of the other states that give pref points for sheep.

 

[ElmerFudd]

No doubt that MT is a far better deal, cheaper prices, bigger horns, and no guides in the wilderness rule. That has a lot to do with the very poor nonresident draw odds in MT vs WY. Of course, WY has a much higher nonresident quota too. If you live long enough, or have been in long enough, you will get a WY sheep tag sometime in a normal lifetime (unless they change the rules sometime in the future). A MT sheep tag is a longshot for anyone, especially a nonresident, to ever draw in a lifetime.