2024 Draw is Open

Coues are the rage because all the big muley hunts are that much harder to get tags for, and much harder to find in general units than years gone by. The creep is bad and won't be getting better.
 
We actually put in for 13B as our first choice, but barring some miracle, we have no chance of drawing that one. 3A/3C is our second choice. It is my understanding that both the first and second choices count, but if I got that wrong, I'd like to find that out.
 
Bow&Arrow said:
We actually put in for 13B as our first choice, but barring some miracle, we have no chance of drawing that one. 3A/3C is our second choice. It is my understanding that both the first and second choices count, but if I got that wrong, I'd like to find that out.
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Yeah, you got that wrong. Your 13b choice won't even be looked at since you're in the max pt draw for 3a/3c achery, which only took 11 pts for a NR to draw last year. Hope you have point guard.
 
Bow&Arrow said:
My son and I put in for 3A/3C archery deer tags. We have 19 points. Hopefully we will draw.
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IMG_3091.gif
 
Bwht4x4 said:
Yeah, you got that wrong. Your 13b choice won't even be looked at since you're in the max pt draw for 3a/3c achery, which only took 11 pts for a NR to draw last year. Hope you have point guard.
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bwht4x4 is correct. You should be in the max pool with 19 points each which means you should get your second choice without your first choice even being considered.
 
If we don't draw 3A/3C archery deer tags this year, and if the tag quota remains the same, it will take 20 or more nonresident points to draw 3A/3C archery deer tags next year in the max points drawing. If we do draw, according to one of the guys who personal messaged me and who is waiting in mine behind us, it is going to take a least 17 or more nonresident points next year.
 
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I noticed it took 20 points last year for
Nr 12-a west side early hunt.
In the 20% draw. That seems like a lot to me for the early hunt. All though, I don’t know much about that hunt
 
mdbrown said:
I noticed it took 20 points last year for
Nr 12-a west side early hunt.
In the 20% draw. That seems like a lot to me for the early hunt. All though, I don’t know much about that hunt
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Here’s my opinion on it.
With 20 points you will never catch up and draw a bonus late tag or strip tag and the Random odds are less then 1%. I think a lot of guys are realizing this and using there points.
All the bonus tags for the late hunts have been going to Max point holders, which sucks because I am 1 under max NR.
This year there’s still 74 with max (27)
88 with 26
There are 1241 people with between 20 and 25 points.
With the current late tag numbers most guys with max or a couple under looking to Hunt late or the strip will die, be to old to hunt or just settle for a different hunt.
From what I understand the early hunt can be tuff but I know there are some guides who always seem to kill some big ones.
 
There is no scenario where the computer will look at your 2nd choice without first looking at your 1st choice. It's called 1st choice and 2nd choice for a reason.

The computer tries to fill the 1st choice and if not, it goes to the 2nd choice. Pretty simple. If you want to have a chance to fill the 1st choice in the random side, don't put a sure thing as 2nd choice because it'll be drawn in the Bonus Pass and you'll be out before going to the random side.
 
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I'm going to show my age with this post.

Back before there was such a thing as the internet, I networked with other hunters to find the best units. That involved going to hunter conventions, talking with people, and making new friends. Nowadays, guys just buy a magazine that lays it all out for them. I think something of the hunting camaraderie has been lost.

Back when one of the states (I'm going to be vague to protect my friend) formed a committee to define a preference point program, one of those friends of mine was on it. He called me to tell me that it was being designed so that the state's game management agency could generate extra funding to support programs for salamanders, prairie dogs, bird watching, etc. He said that the direction the committee was heading would end up favoring those of us our age and steal the opportunity to draw from future generations, and in the end would be unsustainable. (Kind of like our national debt situation.) He voted against it, but we ended up with what we have now. In the early days, it resulted in predictability. I think now with the amount of money flowing in that will keep it going for at least the rest of my lifetime, but can't last forever. I think it's all a Ponzi scheme.
 
mdbrown said:
I noticed it took 20 points last year for
Nr 12-a west side early hunt.
In the 20% draw. That seems like a lot to me for the early hunt. All though, I don’t know much about that hunt
Click to expand...
12A West early is a good hunt and enjoyable IMO but not worth waiting and investing for 20 years. If this is the new norm for NR's, I would suggest shopping around and finding landowner tags in other states. The NR's with tons of points that realize they are running out of time or realize they will never draw that 13B or 13A tag are lowering their standards. This is why you see the huge point creep jump. When a guy with 20 points jumps in and applies for hunt that could have been had with 13 that really messes with the odds. There are a lot of NR's that have a lot points and they could really altar things if they continue to use their points on much easier to draw hunts. It only takes and handful of guys to do this and the NR tag quota will be met. Good luck to everyone that applied this year.
 
huntazido said:
12A West early is a good hunt and enjoyable IMO but not worth waiting and investing for 20 years. If this is the new norm for NR's, I would suggest shopping around and finding landowner tags in other states. The NR's with tons of points that realize they are running out of time or realize they will never draw that 13B or 13A tag are lowering their standards. This is why you see the huge point creep jump. When a guy with 20 points jumps in and applies for hunt that could have been had with 13 that really messes with the odds. There are a lot of NR's that have a lot points and they could really altar things if they continue to use their points on much easier to draw hunts. It only takes and handful of guys to do this and the NR tag quota will be met. Good luck to everyone that applied this year.
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This is the new norm unfortunately.
 
Points are cheap when you spread the license fee over 1-1/2 years and multiple species. They should have made points expensive enough that people wouldn't accumulate them over decades. People don't even blink at spending $150 for a WY Sheep or Moose point that will never be used in their lifetime.
 
WapitiBob said:
There is no scenario where the computer will look at your 2nd choice without first looking at your 1st choice. It's called 1st choice and 2nd choice for a reason.

The computer tries to fill the 1st choice and if not, it goes to the 2nd choice. Pretty simple. If you want to have a chance to fill the 1st choice in the random side, don't put a sure thing as 2nd choice because it'll be drawn in the Bonus Pass and you'll be out before going to the random side.
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So you just explained how there IS a scenario where the computer won't look at your 1st choice. Just like we said. If you have enough points to draw your 2nd choice in the bonus pass then the computer never looks at your first choice because you never get to the random pass.
 
WapitiBob said:
Points are cheap when you spread the license fee over 1-1/2 years and multiple species. They should have made points expensive enough that people wouldn't accumulate them over decades. People don't even blink at spending $150 for a WY Sheep or Moose point that will never be used in their lifetime.
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Yes, they should have definitely made hunting even more of a rich man's game.
 
longranger said:
So you just explained how there IS a scenario where the computer won't look at your 1st choice. Just like we said. If you have enough points to draw your 2nd choice in the bonus pass then the computer never looks at your first choice because you never get to the random pass.
Click to expand...

If you never get to the random pass they don't look at either choice.
The comment made was the computer will skip the 1st choice and go straight to the 2nd if you have the points to draw that 2nd choice. Anybody with a rudimentary understanding of the draw knows that's nonsense.
 
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WapitiBob said:
If you never get to the random pass they don't look at either choice.
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Bob, you can't be that dense. How TF is the computer going to give someone a tag without having looked at their choices? The computer just pulls choices out of its as$ and gives you a random tag you didn't apply for?
 
longranger said:
Bob, you can't be that dense. How TF is the computer going to give someone a tag without having looked at their choices? The computer just pulls choices out of its as$ and gives you a random tag you didn't apply for?
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I'll refresh your memory..

"Your 13b choice won't even be looked at since you're in the max pt draw for 3a/3c archery, which only took 11 pts for a NR to draw last year."

And, If you draw in the Bonus Pass, they won't look at either choice in the random because you are no longer in the draw.
 
WapitiBob said:
I'll refresh your memory..

"Your 13b choice won't even be looked at since you're in the max pt draw for 3a/3c archery, which only took 11 pts for a NR to draw last year."

And, If you draw in the Bonus Pass, they won't look at either choice in the random because you are no longer in the draw.
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Bob! They won't look at your 1st choice but they dam* sure will look at his 2nd choice! Because they will give him a 3c archery tag! We aren't talking about the random pass only. We're talking about the draw in general. He will get 3c archery in the bonus pass AFTER thr computer looks and see his 2nd choice meets the bonus pass criteria. Where did you pull that anyone is talking about the random pass only? When the bonus pass comes before the random pass?
 
He will draw his 2nd choice in the Bonus Pass, AFTER the computer tries to fill his 1st choice and fails. The computer never looks at the 2nd choice before the 1st.
 
WapitiBob said:
He will draw his 2nd choice in the Bonus Pass, AFTER the computer tries to fill his 1st choice and fails. The computer never looks at the 2nd choice before the 1st.
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Lol, Bob you are an interesting individual. You'd rather play stupid than admit you're wrong. The end result of the above scenario is bow&arrow has zero chance at being able to draw first choice.
 
You should read up on the draw process, they explain it pretty well, including a section where they will look at the op's 1st choice, and if not drawn, then look at his 2nd, in that order. Nowhere will you find a section where the computer looks at his 2nd choice without first trying to fill his 1st choice. In fact, you can't find any documentation from AZG&F to support your claim that the computer will look at his 2nd choice before trying to fill his 1st.

Draw Process - Arizona Game & Fish Department

Learn about the Arizona big game draw process.
www.azgfd.com www.azgfd.com
 
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Largebull said:
Last chance , Tuesday at % PM . I am in with 31 res . points for Sheep. Its gonna happen cause I have a 3 week trip for elk planned for Wyoming. .................BULL!
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Man, I'm so jealous. Wish my pops had started putting me in for sheep as a kid, I would have 31 as well if he had haha. In reality, I'll probably never draw now being so far behind max for my age.
 
WapitiBob said:
.... Nowhere will you find a section where the computer looks at his 2nd choice without first trying to fill his 1st choice. ..
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Well, sort of. Within each pass your statement is technically true. But there is an important nuance that makes your statement very misleading.
longranger said:
The end result of the above scenario is bow&arrow has zero chance at being able to draw first choice.
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You are correct. There absolutely IS a nuance in the AZ draw process that causes a second choice to be filled (in the preference pass) and completely ignores looking at that person's first choice in the larger weighted-random pass.

First Pass (20% of tags given to max point holders via preference, but AZGFD incorrectly calls this a "bonus" pass). 1st choice not drawn. 2nd choice (lower demand) is drawn with 100% odds.

Second Pass (80% of tag awarded by weighted random,, this is "bonus"). The applicants first choice is NEVER considered to be given one of these important weighted random tags! Thus, the applicant was given his second choice (due to preference) without his first choice ever being considered in the weighted random portion of the draw.
 
AZ4life said:
Man, I'm so jealous. Wish my pops had started putting me in for sheep as a kid, I would have 31 as well if he had haha. In reality, I'll probably never draw now being so far behind max for my age.
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There was a time when you could buy points for kids under 10 years old. I know because I started buying points for my boys. They are 28 and 26 and they have 20 points each after this draw. I think I was only able to take advantage of this for 2-3 years and then they stopped it. I still think their only chance of drawing is by out living everyone who has more points than them.
 
WapitiBob said:
He will draw his 2nd choice in the Bonus Pass, AFTER the computer tries to fill his 1st choice and fails. The computer never looks at the 2nd choice before the 1st.
Click to expand...

longranger said:
Lol, Bob you are an interesting individual. You'd rather play stupid than admit you're wrong. The end result of the above scenario is bow&arrow has zero chance at being able to draw first choice.
Click to expand...

Maybe call her up and tell her she doesn't know how the draw works? 🤡

"Hi Bob,
....
First and foremost, the AZ draw will always, always consider an applicant's first choice before moving on to consider the second choice.
....."
Callie Cavalcant | Big Game Management Program Supervisor
Arizona Game and Fish Department
Office: 623-236-7355
 
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The draw program looks at 1st choice just to see if it is in 20% pass and quota has not been met. If you are not in the 20% pass with 1st choice, then goes to 2nd choice. If you are in 20% with 2nd choice but not first choice, you have zero chance of ever drawing 1st choice. Guys not in the 20% pass for first or second choice have a better chance of drawing that 1st choice than the guy who drew with 2nd choice in 20% pass. It's always been frustrating to some guys and G&F knows it is a hiccup in the algorithm, but they have no interest in fixing it. It has been brought up in meetings in the past. It is what it is.
 
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WapitiBob said:
....
First and foremost, the AZ draw will always, always consider an applicant's first choice before moving on to consider the second choice.
....."
Callie Cavalcant | Big Game Management Program Supervisor
Arizona Game and Fish Department
Office: 623-236-7355
Click to expand...
It is simply wrong and misleading for AZ GFD to make a statement like that. Unless the ellipses in the quote provided was her making further clarification that her statement is only true WITHIN the first pass or within the second pass.

Whenever this is discussed, the applicant needs to be warned that they could draw their 2nd choice in the 20% preference/first pass. And in so doing they are waiving their opportunity to have their first choice participate in the second pass (weighted-random pass).

It is absolutely possible that the applicant might have drawn their first choice in the second pass but no one will be the wiser.
 
Crampy said:
It is simply wrong and misleading for AZ GFD to make a statement like that. Unless the ellipses in the quote provided was her making further clarification that her statement is only true WITHIN the first pass or within the second pass.

Whenever this is discussed, the applicant needs to be warned that they could draw their 2nd choice in the 20% preference/first pass. And in so doing they are waiving their opportunity to have their first choice participate in the second pass (weighted-random pass).

It is absolutely possible that the applicant might have drawn their first choice in the second pass but no one will be the wiser.
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Nothing misleading about it. They look at 1st choice then 2nd, in the Bonus/Preference Pass. Only if/when you are in the Random will they again look at 1st then 2nd choices, in that order. Point being, the computer will always look at the 1st choice first, then the 2nd, for the current stage of the draw, which was the subject of differing opinions on here.

As for drawing your 2nd choice in the Bonus Pass, yes, the applicant is "waiving" their opportunity to possibly draw the 1st choice in the Random Pass. It's been pointed out and discussed for years. Common sense would tell most anybody that once you draw in the Bonus you aren't even in the draw anymore but perhaps some aren't getting the memo.

Personally, with the years between tags, I would not bypass the opportunity to draw 2nd choice in the 20% for a slight weighted advantage of drawing my 1st choice in the 80% Random. If I was on the cusp of max points for the tag, I might consider my weighted random chances being good enough to try but I've used my points twice now so that isn't happening.
 
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I got excited for a second when AZ sent out an email today. Of course let down it was not the update your CC one. It was this week last year. Guessing CC update deadline will be wed/thu next week. CC Hits next day.
 
They have dumped all charges at the same time in all recent previous draws. You are hoping that either you backfill a rejected charge in the second round of charging or your card is one of the few that takes a day for charges to show at this point.
 
Last year my card was charged about 3 or 4 days after the "Last day to update CC" and lots of people on here were posting "it's over". Unless something is different this year (which I know is a possibility) then it's not over yet.
 
Bow&Arrow said:
If we don't draw 3A/3C archery deer tags this year, and if the tag quota remains the same, it will take 20 or more nonresident points to draw 3A/3C archery deer tags next year in the max points drawing. If we do draw, according to one of the guys who personal messaged me and who is waiting in mine behind us, it is going to take a least 17 or more nonresident points next year.
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I had 3 points and applied First Choice Hunt 1004 Unit 3A/3C Rifle December 13-31 this year. Only one NR tag available. I drew the tag! I Downloaded the E-Tag, snapshot it and texted it to Outfitter Shane Koury. I booked with Shane 💥🦌
 
Olivas said:
I had 3 points and applied First Choice Hunt 1004 Unit 3A/3C Rifle December 13-31 this year. Only one NR tag available. I drew the tag! I Downloaded the E-Tag, snapshot it and texted it to Outfitter Shane Koury. I booked with Shane 💥🦌
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Shane knows his stuff! You sure got lucky, if I were you id plan on hunting the later part of the hunt because thats when they really start rutting!
 
Shane told me Opening Day should be a great start! He said he’ll have some nice Bucks 📍 pinned before I start the Hunt. I booked a Condo in Heber-Overgaard.
 
I can't figure out how to start a new post, so I will just add to this one. We bowhunted 3A/3C. We saw a lot of deer. The older bucks were as skittish as the last week of a rifle season. We reported three guys to the warden. I can't share details as we may be called as witnesses. If the warden gets the situation under control, it could become a great unit.
 
Bow&Arrow said:
I can't figure out how to start a new post, so I will just add to this one. We bowhunted 3A/3C. We saw a lot of deer. The older bucks were as skittish as the last week of a rifle season. We reported three guys to the warden. I can't share details as we may be called as witnesses. If the warden gets the situation under control, it could become a great unit.
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3a/3c is like a point poor man’s strip hunt. All the guide drama and gong show of the strip without all the big bucks to get in your way!
 
Bow&Arrow said:
I can't figure out how to start a new post, so I will just add to this one. We bowhunted 3A/3C. We saw a lot of deer. The older bucks were as skittish as the last week of a rifle season. We reported three guys to the warden. I can't share details as we may be called as witnesses. If the warden gets the situation under control, it could become a great unit.
Click to expand...
Just type in a new thread title here or under Post Thread and then write your post.

IMG_1383.jpeg
 
Bow&Arrow said:
I can't figure out how to start a new post, so I will just add to this one. We bowhunted 3A/3C. We saw a lot of deer. The older bucks were as skittish as the last week of a rifle season. We reported three guys to the warden. I can't share details as we may be called as witnesses. If the warden gets the situation under control, it could become a great unit.
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pm me please.
 
Olivas said:
Shane told me Opening Day should be a great start! He said he’ll have some nice Bucks 📍 pinned before I start the Hunt. I booked a Condo in Heber-Overgaard.
Click to expand...
Shane might lose his guides license before then, got caught flying a plane over the strip when he had a tag 2 years ago. Can find it in arizona public case lookup under David Koury. Kinda sad
 
Weird.... its like this flyng thing could be an issue.

Wonder who owns the green ultra lite power glider in 3A3C
 

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