Market bottom?

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Read a report today that the last 4 recessions were immediately proceeded by a fed rate cut.

Haven’t we been hearing the fed is going to cut rates in Sept?

Amazing the amount of stocks Buffet has been dumping, reportedly more than he’s ever dumped in this short of a timeframe.

“Interesting” times ahead
 
Flyjunky12 said:
Read a report today that the last 4 recessions were immediately proceeded by a fed rate cut.

Haven’t we been hearing the fed is going to cut rates in Sept?

Amazing the amount of stocks Buffet has been dumping, reportedly more than he’s ever dumped in this short of a timeframe.

“Interesting” times ahead
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Follow what he is doing! He's def the smartest guy in the room.
 
What’s funny is Jim Cramer from cnn was just saying. how August was going to be a great month for the Dow jones.
 
I don't have a dog in the fight because I dislike politicians equally, they are all out for their own good but I can't help notice nobody was giving the current party credit for the stock market being higher than it ever has been but now that it is correcting itself everyone wants to blame someone. I guess if it goes back up many of you will be back on here thanking whoever is in office.
 
Most impressive aspect of the selloff yesterday was the $VIX jumping to 65. During the covid crash it took several weeks for the VIX to jump that high. Did it all in 1 day yesterday. You have to go back to (wait for it..) August of 2015 to find a 1 day VIX move of yesterdays caliber. August historically is a terrible month. Within a year of the August-December 2015 correction the market was at new highs despite the drama of the Trump/Clinton election cycle. This is probably the beginning of a correction that goes into the election. BUT, Unless you think modern society is about to collapse, probably a decent time to start phasing money in.
 
I love all the whining and political nonsense. if the president controls the economy and stock market, how do you explain that even after bottoming it's still much higher than 4 years ago? fumble with that a while.

Looks like the markets have bottomed, all up 1-2% right now. the Nikkei is up over 10% so it's obvious the direction the markets are going. the FED will make a bigger cut than originally expected in September and everyone will be giddy.

Not saying any of it is justified or unjustified, just saying that's the way it is so take advantage. smart investors will gain and sniveling dip chits will lose like always.
 
A few weeks ago I would have agreed, but it looks unlikely the president that raised the debt the most per year in history is going to get another chance.

Talk of action on the debt makes for good conversation but neither party has any plan or intent to deal with it. accept it , it's like a lot of problems we're going to leave it for the next generation to worry about.
 
Togwotee said:
A few weeks ago I would have agreed, but it looks unlikely the president that raised the debt the most per year in history is going to get another chance.

Talk of action on the debt makes for good conversation but neither party has any plan or intent to deal with it. accept it , it's like a lot of problems we're going to leave it for the next generation to worry about.
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I hope we don't have more yellow busses for the next generation...
 
Togwotee said:
Markets up "bigly" this morning on unemployment report. so much for the end of the world freak out.
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It isn't over yet Tog. Hold on to what you have. It's been pretty good fir a long, long time. I've learned not to feel to confident about money, as it can disappear fast. The U.S. is in a deep deficit and you know that. The deep state is trying to take our money, our freedom and reduce the population. They are not our friends. It's no conspiracy theory.
 
The markets will be choppy until the presidential polls settle down and show a firm direction in the race. The market wants a firm direction for the future and doesn't like the fuzzyness since Biden dropped out. If Trump gains large leads in the polls expect a repeat of the late 2016-2017 stock market.
 
The markets are never predictable, if they were everyone would be richer than Buffett. what is predictable is the debt, it will continue to grow and it makes no difference whatsoever which party is in control. someday it may come home to roost, or maybe we'll just file BK or inflate it away. in any event it's baked in so don't give it much consideration.

The election won't make much difference either. they're both big spenders and they're both full of chit. and history has proven over and over the president has little impact on the economy and the world economy we live in today makes that even more true.

Predicting the markets is impossible but predicting trends isn't as tough. markets will continue to climb for two main reasons, inflation and the fact as screwed up as we are the US is still the most stable and reliable place to invest in the world. so nobody's going anywhere at least for a long time. and if they leave, they come crawling back every time.

If I had the gloom and doom attitude I'd have left a ton of money on the table. now I'm pretty much stuck because the capital gains would kill me if I got scared and jumped out. so over optimism yields about a 35% discount.
 
Well the cry babies got spanked again. the markets have rallied back to near all-time highs on the PPI. and if the CPI comes in where expected along with the fed cuts, we could be looking at a bull market for some time.
 
Inflation is cooling and a rate cut is now certain. retail sales shocked and the DOW is up 411 to a new record high.

I can't wait to see how the gloom and doomer's try to spin this for the election.

In all fairness the national debt and consumer debt are still a huge problem and there will be a day of reckoning. but someday the sun will burn out and the earth will become a lifeless frozen ball as well. so make the most of what you have today.
 
Actually the “experts” (academics who can’t get a job in the private sector) say the Sun will explode and the Earth will turn to a cinder.

But your point is valid, as the indexes will probably be at record highs when that happens too.

It is important to remember that historically the market only spends about 25% of the time making new highs. The rest of the time it’s dropping or recovering lost ground.
 
True, but it all points to an extended run for the economy in the foreseeable future and if you're setting highs even when it drops it's usually not that bad.

There's a lot of whining and crying about the economy, and some of it is warranted. but if you look at it as a whole if you're not happy now you're going to hate the future. the last 15 years have been some of the best in history, if that's not good enough you're screwed.

The biggest exception is the ag economy, other than cattle and some specialty crops it's the worst I've seen in a long time. so for those whining about food prices if the farmer is going broke I'd like to know how they're going to drop a whole lot.
 
Roth IRAs, 401ks, stocks, short term T-Bills, and investment properties (rentals). A good mix of each keeps you pretty diversified and busy.
Hard part is trying to figure out how much you are going to need 20 to 30 years down the road. With rising cost of medical (and everything else) and inflation. Plus we want to leave a good nest egg for my children
 
Well, I can say I would not recommend taking investment advice from MM.
With that said, I just invest with boring Mutual Funds. Day trading, and Crypto are out! Sure people make money with it but for many who do, there are more who do not.
Look at the history of the DOW over the past 80 or so years. I believe it’s averaged 10%. With a historical average of 3.5% inflation, it’s still a great return.
I readily agree that this administration is a disaster and needs to be replaced. However, I’d be careful to move your life savings, based off of a temporary down in the market.
 
This administration is going to be replaced with this administration so don't expect much change.

Nobody has all the answers, but you have to take a few risks to win much. I can lose a lot and still be way ahead of the game. and I know how much money I'm going to need in 20-30 years, none. if I'm even still alive I'll be bumbling around in a daze like Biden and trump so how much money does it take for that.
 
I’m sad I took a loss but moved the money into a broader etf, and off course hit the dividend reinvest button. Feels nice to be out of anything speculative and into safer investments.
 
woodruffhunter said:
Well, I can say I would not recommend taking investment advice from MM.
With that said, I just invest with boring Mutual Funds. Day trading, and Crypto are out! Sure people make money with it but for many who do, there are more who do not.
Look at the history of the DOW over the past 80 or so years. I believe it’s averaged 10%. With a historical average of 3.5% inflation, it’s still a great return.
I readily agree that this administration is a disaster and needs to be replaced. However, I’d be careful to move your life savings, based off of a temporary down in the market.
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and dont take advice from tik tok or these guys on youtube.

I have found the ramsey plan very beneficial.
 
Togwotee said:
This administration is going to be replaced with this administration so don't expect much change.

Nobody has all the answers, but you have to take a few risks to win much. I can lose a lot and still be way ahead of the game. and I know how much money I'm going to need in 20-30 years, none. if I'm even still alive I'll be bumbling around in a daze like Biden and trump so how much money does it take for that.
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Everything you have if you are put in a nursing home but you won’t care if your in a daze
 
Here is my Alex Jones conspiracy, Market is going to be higher than Hell up till the election, Tump is going to take over , the country is going to see a major sh!t show (peaceful protest) Market is going to crash and it will all be Tumps fault. Pretty sure I have enough toilet paper to get me through all the excitment.
 
ras1954 said:
Here is my Alex Jones conspiracy, Market is going to be higher than Hell up till the election, Tump is going to take over , the country is going to see a major sh!t show (peaceful protest) Market is going to crash and it will all be Tumps fault. Pretty sure I have enough toilet paper to get me through all the excitment.
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So are you selling all your stock holdings now or waiting until closer to the election?
 
Bluehair said:
It is important to remember that historically the market only spends about 25% of the time making new highs. The rest of the time it’s dropping or recovering lost ground.
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But 75% of the time the SP500 hits a new high, it never goes that low again. (IIRC)

Also, if an investor missed only the 10 Best Days in the last 40 years, he would've missed 50% of his entire growth over that time. Only 10 days in 40 years!

Moral of the story: Just keep buying, don't try and time it.
 
53 years ago today Nixon abandoned the Gold standard. The dollar has plummeted ever since. Cue the Fiat money printers & private central bankers becoming federally licensed counterfeiters. Finance never ending wars & massive govt. expansion with unending debt. It's been great. (y)
 
wetmule said:
53 years ago today Nixon abandoned the Gold standard. The dollar has plummeted ever since. Cue the Fiat money printers & private central bankers becoming federally licensed counterfeiters. Finance never ending wars & massive govt. expansion with unending debt. It's been great. (y)
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Ya im sure the people who bought a home 53 years ago for 73 cents and bag of chips, or stocks, or any appreciating assets are really upset about the capital appreciation theyve seen on it in that 53 years. 🤡 🤡

If youre over the age of 60 and youre not drying your tears with 100 dollar bills then seriously WTF have you been doing your whole life? The last decade of quantitative easing was just icing on your capital appreciation cake.
 
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TKMulePacker said:
If youre over the age of 60 and youre not drying your tears with 100 dollar bills then seriously WTF have you been doing your whole life?
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I couldn't agree more. Most boomers pissed away their money.

If I could have started in 1980 (putting what I have been for the last 15 years in the S&P) I would EASILY have over 15 million in the bank....

Hell, even if I had only put 1/4 of what I am putting in now, I would have 3 million in the bank.
 
Togwotee said:
Many young people piss it away because they never thought they's live as long as they usually do. I didn't.
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Truth. I didn't start putting anything away till I was in my young 30's. I started with about 10% of pay day and eventually put in more. I was born with a plastic spoon and was always spooked. We chose to payoff the things we bought on credit (autos, furniture, and eventually the house about 6 years ago). I now brow beat my boys into putting as much as they can away into some mix of investments. I do well in retirement, but can always think I could have done a whole lot better with some smarts and courage.
 
Having to deal with your investments is something new to some. We work all our lives and some don't even think about it until they retire, but if you look at the stock market even in the period where we had the Cuban missile crisis the stock market paid off in the long run.
As they say grow a set of balls hang on don't fall for the short term outlook. It will change with a new administration as it always does and then it will settle in again.
 
Being a bluehair myself I fully understand how good we had it back in the day. In 1970 I was the head cook at the Sizzler Steakhouse making $2.00/hr. $90/month rent. We had the world by the tail.

You have to be adaptable in today's world. If I was just starting out now, I would start a YouTube channel like this guy. He has over 525K subscribers with over 68K views on his latest video one day ago. He makes good money providing important information.

 
eelgrass said:
Being a bluehair myself I fully understand how good we had it back in the day. In 1970 I was the head cook at the Sizzler Steakhouse making $2.00/hr. $90/month rent. We had the world by the tail.

You have to be adaptable in today's world. If I was just starting out now, I would start a YouTube channel like this guy. He has over 525K subscribers with over 68K views on his latest video one day ago. He makes good money providing important information.

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Use to be those of us that worked and had something to show for it made good money (welders, carpenters, concrete work, etc.)
Today some, maybe a lot, make good money talking or working jobs that I can’t see really accomplished anything.
A good example I have used for many years:
In 1970 my dad made 12k a year climbing poles for the power company in Southern California. And they worked hard. Top of the line truck then was around $3,500. A very nice house with a few acres for a horse was maybe 2 years pay. Now compared that to today’s prices.
I feel that my generation is the last generation that could make a good to very good living working hard, investing, and not pissing away your money. That’s one of the main reasons we hope to leave my children a good nest egg to help them out.
 
LIK2HNT said:
Use to be those of us that worked and had something to show for it made good money (welders, carpenters, concrete work, etc.)
Today some, maybe a lot, make good money talking or working jobs that I can’t see really accomplished anything.
A good example I have used for many years:
In 1970 my dad made 12k a year climbing poles for the power company in Southern California. And they worked hard. Top of the line truck then was around $3,500. A very nice house with a few acres for a horse was maybe 2 years pay. Now compared that to today’s prices.
I feel that my generation is the last generation that could make a good to very good living working hard, investing, and not pissing away your money. That’s one of the main reasons we hope to leave my children a good nest egg to help them out.
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You make some great points. It certainly was “Easier” to buy a home back then. My parents bought their home for $9,000 in 1971.

With that said, I still believe there are some great opportunities out there. I teach STEM subjects and see kids making great living as tradesmen.

We are losing many of the Journeymen tradesmen to retirement and the demand will certainly out gain the availability of qualified employees.

As far as housing goes, it’s going to be tough, especially when an average home in Utah is over $500,000.
 
woodruffhunter said:
You make some great points. It certainly was “Easier” to buy a home back then. My parents bought their home for $9,000 in 1971.

With that said, I still believe there are some great opportunities out there. I teach STEM subjects and see kids making great living as tradesmen.

We are losing many of the Journeymen tradesmen to retirement and the demand will certainly out gain the availability of qualified employees.

As far as housing goes, it’s going to be tough, especially when an average home in Utah is over $500,000.
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I agree, but Utah average home price is something we in California WISH we had. 😎😎
 
Mallardsx2 said:
I couldn't agree more. Most boomers pissed away their money.

If I could have started in 1980 (putting what I have been for the last 15 years in the S&P) I would EASILY have over 15 million in the bank....

Hell, even if I had only put 1/4 of what I am putting in now, I would have 3 million in the bank.
Click to expand...
If I didn’t hunt I’d have 30 million in the bank
 
eelgrass said:
Being a bluehair myself I fully understand how good we had it back in the day. In 1970 I was the head cook at the Sizzler Steakhouse making $2.00/hr. $90/month rent. We had the world by the tail.

You have to be adaptable in today's world. If I was just starting out now, I would start a YouTube channel like this guy. He has over 525K subscribers with over 68K views on his latest video one day ago. He makes good money providing important information.

Click to expand...
lol he is a rookie eel. If you can’t be fishing in 5 minutes living in your car-your f’ing up
 
The fed is meeting in Jackson Hole this week, the tone of that meeting will set the markets this week. 1/2 % next month seems to be expected. we shall see.
 
To answer your initial question 5,164 8/5/24 for the S & P. 5,608 end of today. I view these dips as stocks being on sale. S & P up almost 30% for the year and 80% over the past four.
 
I'm not sure who to blame, I recall some orange guy 4 years ago saying if he lost the markets would crash and I'd lose all my retirement. but he did and I didn't, so I'm really confused.
 

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