It's been that way since CPW opened the floodgates with the no up front fee. It's only going to get worse as more and more of them flood the draw. Statistically they have the best odds at tags just by their sheer numbers they have the highest probability of pulling the lowest random numberJust saw they updated. A lot of low weighted point holders drew out
It’s a true lottery for the deserts. The others go thru central processing. Supposedly.Looks like 41080 sheep apps for 336 tags, 31677 goat apps for 244 tags, and 5895 desert apps for 15 tags. Thats 78652 apps for 595 tags. Its a lottery folks. Slightly better odds if you have a few points and are a resident. Never going to get easier. Demand has outpaced supply as long as I have been alive.
The same thing will happen in WY if they switch to bonus points for moose and sheep.It's been that way since CPW opened the floodgates with the no up front fee. It's only going to get worse as more and more of them flood the draw. Statistically they have the best odds at tags just by their sheer numbers they have the highest probability of pulling the lowest random number
That still doesn’t help if I pull a number with 3+1 that ends in two zeros and you draw a number ending in any whole number other then zero. You can cut it in pieces all you want and that doesn’t get a tag. The fact that the entire process involves one number for each hunter is the problem. Just give the guy with 25 points 25 numbers. It’s fairly simple.Square or cube your points and use that number to divide your inverted & converted application number by.
That just makes way to much sense! No government agency will go for that!That still doesn’t help if I pull a number with 3+1 that ends in two zeros and you draw a number ending in any whole number other then zero. You can cut it in pieces all you want and that doesn’t get a tag. The fact that the entire process involves one number for each hunter is the problem. Just give the guy with 25 points 25 numbers. It’s fairly simple.
They've taken something that should be very simple and managed to overcomplicate it. Makes no sense.That still doesn’t help if I pull a number with 3+1 that ends in two zeros and you draw a number ending in any whole number other then zero. You can cut it in pieces all you want and that doesn’t get a tag. The fact that the entire process involves one number for each hunter is the problem. Just give the guy with 25 points 25 numbers. It’s fairly simple.
You can do that math, I don't think it is going to help a ton based on the current distribution of who drew tags and how many people are applying with few points. I agree it would be simpler and more fair but it is probably not going to help much for those sitting on loads of points. I think GoHunt or Epic did this analysis recently.That still doesn’t help if I pull a number with 3+1 that ends in two zeros and you draw a number ending in any whole number other then zero. You can cut it in pieces all you want and that doesn’t get a tag. The fact that the entire process involves one number for each hunter is the problem. Just give the guy with 25 points 25 numbers. It’s fairly simple.
Definitely something wrong there. Those 3 tags should have gone to applicants with 3 plus points. Unless maybe they were ewe tags.How did a nr draw at 1-0 and 2-0 ? They aren’t into the draw until they have 3 pp
Female tags. Big money for a ewe.How did a nr draw at 1-0 and 2-0 ? They aren’t into the draw until they have 3 pp
That’s what I expected but wasnt aware that you could draw a ewe tag without having to have the 3 pp at leastFemale tags. Big money for a ewe.
When no one has the 3 PP they go to the next in line.That’s what I expected but wasnt aware that you could draw a ewe tag without having to have the 3 pp at least
One number divided by 25; or 25 numbers. Doesn't matter...That still doesn’t help if I pull a number with 3+1 that ends in two zeros and you draw a number ending in any whole number other then zero. You can cut it in pieces all you want and that doesn’t get a tag. The fact that the entire process involves one number for each hunter is the problem. Just give the guy with 25 points 25 numbers. It’s fairly simple.
But individually, high point holders have the advantage...It's been that way since CPW opened the floodgates with the no up front fee. It's only going to get worse as more and more of them flood the draw. Statistically they have the best odds at tags just by their sheer numbers they have the highest probability of pulling the lowest random number
Not really go unit by unit on the draw stats for rams. Many high to max point holders are getting out drawn by low point holders. Last time I ran it mid to low point holders were drawing over 80% of the ram tags.But individually, high point holders have the advantage...
Would rather have 25 random then one number decided by 25One number divided by 25; or 25 numbers. Doesn't matter...
CO's silly weighted BP equation produces the same results as a simple BP system. Just uses a convoluted method to get there. The TOPRUT article on this produced some good data to prove and visualize it.
But it sounds like CPW might be doing exactly what you are requesting. Trashing this silly division exercise and converting MSG to simple BP system with a 3 point floor. For consumer comprehension, this will be a good change.
That's because of the high number of low point holders. It started going down hill when they stopped collecting the full tag fee up front.Not really go unit by unit on the draw stats for rams. Many high to max point holders are getting out drawn by low point holders. Last time I ran it mid to low point holders were drawing over 80% of the ram tags.
Statistically they have the best odds at tags just by their sheer numbers they have the highest probability of pulling the lowest random number
And many people feel the same way. It is a common misperception about the CO MSG weighted system.Would rather have 25 random then one number decided by 25
I know that I've already stated that numerous timesThat's because of the high number of low point holders. It started going down hill when they stopped collecting the full tag fee up front.
No it's not misleading just look at the draw stats unit by unit and you will see what I'm talking aboutThis is misleading.
Sure, in the aggregate, the huge numbers of low point holders do end up with alot of tags. Especially since the flood of applicants after not requiring up-front tag fees.
But you have to compare individuals 1:1. And the high point holders in MSG most definitely have a better chance of drawing than any single 3+0 applicant.
Your analysis would be the same as playing a basketball game with 1 person on Team A. And 5 people on Team B.
Statistically high point holders have a better chance of drawing. Fact.Not really go unit by unit on the draw stats for rams. Many high to max point holders are getting out drawn by low point holders. Last time I ran it mid to low point holders were drawing over 80% of the ram tags.
Deercy here's some number from this years stats. The max guys at 3+23 had 4 out of 92 applicants draw so a 4.3% draw rate. The 3+13 group had 15 out of 360 applicants draw so a 4.2% draw rate. So real no advantage statistically speaking for ten more years of weighted points. The 3+3 group drew the most tags at 24 the 3+2 group was next at 20. So out of 223 ram tags those two low point groups drew 44 of them or roughly 18%.
4 out of 92 isn't a great statistical advantage like some claim. The honest numbers show that close to 20% of the ram tags go to low point holders and that will only increase as time goes on. If you go unit by unit in the draw stats the max point guys do not individually have a huge statistical advantage to all the applicants. The 3+3 group is not an anomaly you go can go back the previous years since the flood gates were open and see that the lower point groups are drawing a majority of the tags.3+23, 4 of 92 res drew for 4.3% draw rate.
3+3, 24 of 2220 res drew for 1.08% draw rate (you left this out of your data of course)
4 is a bigger number than 1.
Looks like you made Deercry's point for him. Even with that odd anomaly in the 3+3 group, the max point holders still had a greater chance to draw. As individuals.
Everyone understands your valid point about the flood of low point applicants. But we still have to remain honest with the numbers.
What was the draw rate for the 3+3 guys?Deercy here's some number from this years stats. The max guys at 3+23 had 4 out of 92 applicants draw so a 4.3% draw rate. The 3+13 group had 15 out of 360 applicants draw so a 4.2% draw rate. So real no advantage statistically speaking for ten more years of weighted points. The 3+3 group drew the most tags at 24 the 3+2 group was next at 20. So out of 223 ram tags those two low point groups drew 44 of them or roughly 18%.
My son drew a nanny tag with 0/0 when he was 12Definitely something wrong there. Those 3 tags should have gone to applicants with 3 plus points. Unless maybe they were ewe tags.
The draw rate as individuals isn't good but those groups have so many applicants they have the best "odds" for the tags. That's why those groups have been drawing a majority of the overall tags the last few yearsWhat was the draw rate for the 3+3 guys?
That's kinda exactly what I was saying....The draw rate as individuals isn't good but those groups have so many applicants they have the best "odds" for the tags. That's why those groups have been drawing a majority of the overall tags the last few years
Weird, so it was less than the guys with weighted points?The draw rate as individuals isn't good but those groups have so many applicants they have the best "odds" for the tags. That's why those groups have been drawing a majority of the overall tags the last few years
Agree. And he has changed his tune from “weighted points don’t help” to “weighted points aren’t worth the cost” can’t make broad statements as everyone is in a different situation. Heck I’m really glad that when I had to move away for 5 years I was writing the big check for goat, sheep, and moose every year. And $50 is what some people spend at Starbucks in a week.^^^^ That's your opinion, but on paper, If I see a unit where there are say 25 guys putting in, and historically those guys are all say 3+8-9 and down, and you apply with 3+18, I feel I do have a better chance, and I do. Huge difference? No, but I do have a slight edge, and drawing tags is all about "edges"
But earlier you said...By some but I still wouldn't consider having max weighted points a huge advantage. The 3+11 to 3+0 group drew over 80% of the ram tags. Which is the mid level down. Shouldn't that be the other way if those weighted points were really working how they are supposed to? I also wouldn't consider 4 max weighted points holders drawing a huge success. My dad's drawn two rocky tags one at 3+3 and one at 3+2 he also drew goat at 3+2. I drew goat at 3+3 and rocky at 3+1. Just trying to get my kids tags now. I still don't see the advantage of all the weighted points especially at 50 a pop for residents and 100 for nonresidents.
That's just the simple odds too. If you looked at just ram tags I'd bet the odds favor high point holders more. The low point holders put in disproportionately for ewe and easier draw ram tags.3 times the odds is huge.
Points | tags | apps | odds |
0 | 6 | 717 | 0.837% |
1 | 7 | 731 | 0.958% |
2 | 14 | 802 | 1.746% |
3 | 18 | 1130 | 1.593% |
4 | 15 | 583 | 2.573% |
5 | 8 | 453 | 1.766% |
6 | 10 | 481 | 2.079% |
7 | 3 | 357 | 0.840% |
8 | 13 | 418 | 3.110% |
9 | 7 | 369 | 1.897% |
10 | 8 | 303 | 2.640% |
11 | 16 | 272 | 5.882% |
12 | 13 | 271 | 4.797% |
13 | 15 | 256 | 5.859% |
14 | 14 | 214 | 6.542% |
15 | 8 | 184 | 4.348% |
16 | 11 | 193 | 5.699% |
17 | 6 | 161 | 3.727% |
18 | 3 | 118 | 2.542% |
19 | 7 | 97 | 7.216% |
20 | 3 | 87 | 3.448% |
21 | 2 | 70 | 2.857% |
22 | 4 | 68 | 5.882% |
23 | 4 | 79 | 5.063% |
That is awesome and definitely shows higher odds for more points! This is showing about a 5 to 1 odds ratio from 20 points to 1 point. In a true bonus point system, wouldn't you expect for the line to be steeper, closer to 20 to 1 on a ratio (like 10% for 20 points and 0.5% for 1 point)? Maybe it would be most years, just not the year in question because of how the lottery fell or maybe the crazy Colorado system is not doing exactly what statisticians thinks it is doing and bonus point is more favorable for those with more points or those with more points are applying for the harder to draw tags I guess.Here's the breakdown for ram tags from this year. Sure looks like WP give an advantage to my simple brain.
Points tags apps odds 0 6 717 0.837% 1 7 731 0.958% 2 14 802 1.746% 3 18 1130 1.593% 4 15 583 2.573% 5 8 453 1.766% 6 10 481 2.079% 7 3 357 0.840% 8 13 418 3.110% 9 7 369 1.897% 10 8 303 2.640% 11 16 272 5.882% 12 13 271 4.797% 13 15 256 5.859% 14 14 214 6.542% 15 8 184 4.348% 16 11 193 5.699% 17 6 161 3.727% 18 3 118 2.542% 19 7 97 7.216% 20 3 87 3.448% 21 2 70 2.857% 22 4 68 5.882% 23 4 79 5.063%
View attachment 144489
Here's the breakdown for ram tags from this year. Sure looks like WP give an advantage to my simple brain.
Points tags apps odds 0 6 717 0.837% 1 7 731 0.958% 2 14 802 1.746% 3 18 1130 1.593% 4 15 583 2.573% 5 8 453 1.766% 6 10 481 2.079% 7 3 357 0.840% 8 13 418 3.110% 9 7 369 1.897% 10 8 303 2.640% 11 16 272 5.882% 12 13 271 4.797% 13 15 256 5.859% 14 14 214 6.542% 15 8 184 4.348% 16 11 193 5.699% 17 6 161 3.727% 18 3 118 2.542% 19 7 97 7.216% 20 3 87 3.448% 21 2 70 2.857% 22 4 68 5.882% 23 4 79 5.063%
My guess is that the line isn't steeper because high point holders tend to apply for the better tags that have worse draw odds.That is awesome and definitely shows higher odds for more points! This is showing about a 5 to 1 odds ratio from 20 points to 1 point. In a true bonus point system, wouldn't you expect for the line to be steeper, closer to 20 to 1 on a ratio (like 10% for 20 points and 0.5% for 1 point)? Maybe it would be most years, just not the year in question because of how the lottery fell or maybe the crazy Colorado system is not doing exactly what statisticians thinks it is doing and bonus point is more favorable for those with more points or those with more points are applying for the harder to draw tags I guess.
So the 3+0 group drew just as many ram tags as the 3+17 group. Like I said a majority of the ram tags go to the 3+0 to 3+11 groupHere's the breakdown for ram tags from this year. Sure looks like WP give an advantage to my simple brain.
Points tags apps odds 0 6 717 0.837% 1 7 731 0.958% 2 14 802 1.746% 3 18 1130 1.593% 4 15 583 2.573% 5 8 453 1.766% 6 10 481 2.079% 7 3 357 0.840% 8 13 418 3.110% 9 7 369 1.897% 10 8 303 2.640% 11 16 272 5.882% 12 13 271 4.797% 13 15 256 5.859% 14 14 214 6.542% 15 8 184 4.348% 16 11 193 5.699% 17 6 161 3.727% 18 3 118 2.542% 19 7 97 7.216% 20 3 87 3.448% 21 2 70 2.857% 22 4 68 5.882% 23 4 79 5.063%
View attachment 144489
No you didn't.So the 3+0 group drew just as many ram tags as the 3+17 group. Like I said a majority of the ram tags go to the 3+0 to 3+11 group
Math isn't your thing, and that's okay. Just stop trying to convince the world that you are some sort of statistician when you can't even do grade school-level division.So the 3+0 group drew just as many ram tags as the 3+17 group. Like I said a majority of the ram tags go to the 3+0 to 3+11 group
Yes I didNo you didn't.
You think your odds are getting better with your weighted points. Your odds are getting worse every year you are still in the draw. Enjoy the next round of 3000 joining the party next yearMath isn't your thing, and that's okay. Just stop trying to convince the world that you are some sort of statistician when you can't even do grade school-level division.
135 tags went to 3+0-3+11. 90 tags went to 3+12 to max. You guys keep telling yourselves all those weighted points are helping you.Here's the breakdown for ram tags from this year. Sure looks like WP give an advantage to my simple brain.
Points tags apps odds 0 6 717 0.837% 1 7 731 0.958% 2 14 802 1.746% 3 18 1130 1.593% 4 15 583 2.573% 5 8 453 1.766% 6 10 481 2.079% 7 3 357 0.840% 8 13 418 3.110% 9 7 369 1.897% 10 8 303 2.640% 11 16 272 5.882% 12 13 271 4.797% 13 15 256 5.859% 14 14 214 6.542% 15 8 184 4.348% 16 11 193 5.699% 17 6 161 3.727% 18 3 118 2.542% 19 7 97 7.216% 20 3 87 3.448% 21 2 70 2.857% 22 4 68 5.882% 23 4 79 5.063%
View attachment 144489
ORIONTHEHUNTER- good job getting unit 61 tags during a year when people turned in tags and there was a fire. Then a few good draws in addition, cool. Good animals!Youd think all those valuable weighted points would at least let those high point guys draw half the tags.
I would be all in favor of increasing the bar to 10 pts as mentioned in the paragraph above for moose.
Thanks walleye. Yeah like I said the lower point people get a majority of the overall tags because there are thousands more of them in the pool and it's only going to get worse. Just wait until another 9000 or so jump in the next three years. Like I said I the longer these guys stay in the worse their odds are becoming.ORIONTHEHUNTER- good job getting unit 61 tags during a year when people turned in tags and there was a fire. Then a few good draws in addition, cool. Good animals!
Otherwise----- I'd appreciate if you just left these forums. Seriously.
Your math doesn't add up, your "business" of getting tags is BS, and you are just gaslighting these forums.
If you had taken stats and probability in HIGH SCHOOL you might get why the majority of tags are drawn with by people with 0-11 weighted points draw as many tags as those with more weighted points.
The rest of you.... Please do not respond anymore to Orion"TheHunter" regarding draw odds and robots getting tags. The system is beyond what he is capable manipulating. My college roommate who has worked for Microsoft/Adobe/Alpha and now elsewhere has verified their systems far outpace anything he can possibly advertise. For real.
Walleye, PhD, MD
P.S. If you'd like to know my educational background let me know. I'd be happy to educate anyone on the science of how this all works and statistics to prove.
Or states could pull something like Wyo for nooners sheep and moose! Most changes seem to make draw odds even worse than they already are….but you never know!
oh the irony. nobody triggers like orion.Hahaha this will ruffle some more feathers
Cool. Last I knew he was in Dillon. If you talk to him tell him I said howdy.Yeah it was from Duplan. He lives over in Ridgeway
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